What ails India – galloping population growth or corruption?

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A day after making Parliament bow before the people’s will to have strong mechanism to fight corruption from top to bottom, the 74-year-old Gandhian, Anna Hazare, accepted a glass of tender coconut water mixed with honey from a Dalit and a Muslim girl -- Simran and Ikrah -- at 10:20 am on Sunday (August 28, 2011) on the dais at the Ramlila Ground, New Delhi to break his 12-day fast that began on August 16.  This blog discusses: what ails India – galloping population growth or corruption?

Both corruption and overpopulation are symptoms of India's main problem, and not the main causes. When one tries to examine this issue in depth, he/she will find that all these are consequences of population explosion. The annual growth rate of population averaged at more than 2 per cent per annum since 1951- one of the highest among the major developing countries. In absolute terms, the population of India has increased by a whopping 849 million during the last 60 years. The net addition in population during each decade since 1951 has increased consistently, as shown in Table 1.

                        Table 1 India: Trends in population growth since 1951

Year	Population (in million)	Absolute Decadal growth	Density (Persons  /sq.km)
1951	361.1	42.4	117
1961	439.2	78.1	142
1971	548.2	109.0	177
1981	683.3	135.1	216
1991	846.4	163.1	267
2001	1028.6	182.2	325
2011	1210.2	181.5	382
Source: Census of India 2001 and Census of India 2011 (provisional)

As a result, population pressure increased many times in the last sixty years. Soon after Independence in 1951, the density of India was as low as 117 persons per sq. kilometre and this steadily increased from one decade to another to reach 382 in 2011. The persons living per sq. km. has increased by 216 per cent in the last sixty years. This is a matter of great concern as it puts immense pressure on India’s natural resources in general, and water in particular. It also adversely affects the quality of life of people as will as governance.

India's growth rate especially during the first 40 years after independence was low[1]  by standards of developing countries. In 1947, the average annual income in India was $439, compared with $619 for China and $770 for South Korea. By 2010, the respective numbers were $2,960, $6,020 and $28,120 (PRB 2010).

As a result, the vast numbers of people competing for all kinds of services, leading to demand hugely outstripping supply, coupled with people's ignorance and therefore lack of power, enables corruption to flourish in India. Providers of any service can demand bribes for just doing their job, and the public are willing to pay "extra" to get that elusive service. In a society that is poor, unaware and divided, politicians can afford to launch all kinds of huge public projects, steal staggeringly large amounts of money, and leave the projects incomplete.

Stopping, or at the least curbing, corruption is important, but there are many ways to work towards that effort. India’s legislative efforts to protect whistleblowers and those who work to fight corruption is a step in the right direction, however more must be done.

The population of India is expected to increase from 1210 million in 2011 to 1370 million in 2021 that is in the next ten years – an increase by 160 million during the decade.  As a consequence, the population density will increase from 382 to 435 persons per sq. kilometre in 2021, creating more demand for additional resources like water, food, education, health, housing, etc. thus providing favorable ground to promote corruption. Thus, one of the best solutions for complete corruption eradication is having a right control on population growth.

From Adam Smith onward, economists have recognized important linkages between population and socio-economic development. Yet, the attention given to these linkages in current development thinking in India is not very clear. This is because one can argue that it is not rapid population growth but rather weak government, corruption and social injustices that are preventing economic and social development. The counter argument is that rapid population growth exacerbates the problems of weak government, corruption and social injustice. However, one has to recognize that population is an important factor in development, especially when it is growing seemingly out of control[2] .

The next blog (September 5, 2011) discusses  “India and China: A comparative analysis”.

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[1] Also known as the “Hindu rate of growth” is a controversial and derogatory expression used to refer to the low annual growth rate of the socialist economy of India before 1991, which stagnated around 3.5% from 1950s to 1980s, while per capita income growth averaged 1.3%.  The economy of India has been growing at rate of around 6-8% since economic liberalization began in the 1990s.

[2]For details, see: Gavin W. Jones. 2005. Why are Population and Development Issues not Given Priority?” In Asia-Pacific Population Journal, Vol. 20, 2005, pp.5-9.

12th Five Year Plan (2012-17): Population and Future of India

Can all the impending challenges, as noted earlier, be solved? Probably note. What is possible, however, is to make these more manageable. One area where urgent attention is required is to decelerate growth of population significantly, especially in the Four Large North Indian (FLNI) States in the wider concept of reproductive health.  

A popularly held belief is that as a country becomes economically more prosperous, its fertility declines significantly and leads to a stable population. However, this is a simplistic view of a complex phenomenon.  Since the introduction of the market-based economic reforms in 1991, India has become one of the fasted growing major economies in the world. The economic reforms have just completed  20 years in the last  July (2011), however, during this period, India’s population increased by 355 million, much more than the population of USA - the third most populous country in the world.

This raises the question: Is Development the Best Contraceptive -- or Are Contraceptives[1]?  Even 35 years after the UN supported  World Population Congress in Bucharest in 1974, development continues to be the best contraceptive, “but the matter of population stabilization is now so urgent that it can no longer be left to be dictated by comparatively slower pace of economic growth in developing countries”, as agued by Dr. Karan Singh who represented India in the Bucharest Conference”[2]. It is argued that there is a need to go beyond the prevailing notion that socio-economic development is an essential precondition for fertility transition, since it provided only a partial explanation for the monumental changes taking place in fertility behavior, especially in low-income economies (like Bangladesh, India’s immediate neighbor  and Andhra Pradesh in the country). Evidence suggests the importance of management variables as well. In recent years, these have occupied a more prominent place in explanation of fertility decline[3].

In Short, the population of India is expected to increase from  1210 million in 2011 to 1370 million (scenario B) in 2021, as per Population Reference Bureau[4]  that is in the next ten years – an increase of 13.2 per cent or by  160 million during the decade at the rate of 1.24 per cent annually As a consequence, the population density will increase from 382 to 435 persons per sq. kilometre in 2021, creating more demand for additional resources like water, food, education, health, housing, etc.  Of the net addition of 160 million people, around 46 million will be the result of unwanted/unplanned childbearing. This sort of population and development pattern has already created and will create several internal conflicts in the country.  India is   at the critical juncture because problems India has for long set aside have come to the fore and uneven population growth makes them pressing. Addressing this issue of population is the antidote to the various concerns plaguing the nation (like corruption, governance, low and order, poverty, women empowerment, etc.).  As such, the population issue should not be allowed to become a “stumbling block” to socio-economic progress as well as the unity of the country[5].

                             

Although the resultant demographic scenario based on the provisional results of the Census of India 2011does not inspire with confidence, achieving population stabilization in near future is not impossible. By strengthening the programme being conducted in the FLNI States, the goal of replacement level fertility required to initiate the process of population stabilization could be achieved even before 2021. This does not require too much by way of resources, but reorientation of programme management. If we achieve this goal, the population of the India as per the 2051 Census will be around 1500 million. Otherwise, it will be more than 1751 million.

                                            Table1 India: Projected population and density

Year	Population  of India ( in Million)	Population density (Persons/sq.km)
2011	1210.2	382
2021	1370.1	432
2031*	1522.6	480
2041*	1650.8	521
2051*	1751.1	553
* Projected population, see: Population Reference Bureau PFI & PRB, 2007

There is no need to implement coercive measures or to provide incentives and disincentives. The real need is to provide services in un-served and underserved areas.  For this some innovative measures are needed.  A user friendly service delivery system can help address the causes that lie at the root of unplanned/unwanted fertility. As such, our total attention should be directed to improve the use of family planning services especially in FLNI States by adopting a pragmatic but time bound action plan. At the same time, investment in education has to be increased to improve the quality of education especially at the government schools and colleges where most of the students are from poor and rural families.

The writing is on wall. The question is not whether we act or not, but whether we act now or later and deal with much more dire and expensive consequences. What we do in the next few years especially during the period of Twelve Five Year Plan (2012-17) will determine India’s future.   India cannot afford business as usual.

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[1]In the first-ever World Population Conference in Bucharest in 1974, China and India coined the slogan of "Development is the best Contraceptive", which was widely appreciated.

[2] For details, see an article by Dr. Karan Singh: Population Development and Environment, 1994.

[3] For details, see: Kothari, Devendra and S.  Krishnaswamy. 2003. “Poverty, Family Planning and Fertility vis-a vis      

  Management of Family Planning Services in India: A Case Study”. In Maria Eugenia COSIO-ZAVALA (Ed.). Poverty,   

  Fertility and Family Planning, Paris: CICRED, 335-58

[4] PFI & PRB. 2007. The Future Population of India, New Delhi: Population Foundation of India and Population Reference Bureau

[5] Kothari, Devendra. 1999.  “Likelihood of two “Nations” emerging: A dilemma for India, IIHMR UPDATE 2(1), Jaipur: Indian Institute of Health Management Research.

Resultant demographic scenario and its implications for India (Part III)

Slow progress towards women empowerment:

In spite of a significant jump in female literacy from 53.7% in 2001 to 65.5% in 2011, its impact has not been seen in the meaningful improvement in women’s autonomy measured in terms of decision-making roles within the family and community. Women’s autonomy can have a significant impact on the health seeking behavior of women by altering their relative control over fertility and contraceptive use, and by influencing their attitudes and abilities. To measure women’s autonomy and empowerment more directly, the National Family Health Survey-3 (IIPS 2007)[1], asked about women’s participation in household decision-making, their freedom of movement, and access to money that they could spend as they wished. Married women were asked who makes decisions on their own health care, making large household purchases, making household purchases for daily household needs, and visiting their own family or relatives. Only 37 percent of currently married women participate in making all four of these decisions. Further, only one-third of women are allowed to go by themselves to the market, to a health facility, and to places outside their own community. Further, a comparison with other States of India indicates that Four Large North India (FLNI) States have a consistently poor record on all the indicators of decision-making.  In this connection, one should note that these States recorded the highest level of unwanted fertility in the country, as revealed by the latest NFHS (IIPS 2007:109).

While India’s population continues to grow by 16-17 million people annually, 15 million women, mostly belonging to the “bottom of the pyramid” especially in the FLNI States, seek to postpone childbearing, space births, or stop having children, but are not using a modern method of contraception. This is also known as the "unmet need" for contraception. Often, these women travel far from their communities to reach a health facility, only to return home “empty handed” due to shortages, stock outs, and/or non availability of doctors and paramedical staff. When women are thus turned away, they are unable to protect themselves from unwanted/unplanned pregnancies and sexually transmitted infections, including HIV/AIDSs. And this type of incomplete control over the reproductive process leads to relatively high levels of unwanted childbearing. Around 26 million children are born in India every year and out of this about 5.5 million births have been classified as unplanned. Further, as per the NFHS-3 (IIPS 2007) about 30 per cent (around 218 million persons) of the total population in the young age group 0-35 years in India was the product of unwanted childbearing. The level of unwanted fertility in the country has increased from 23 per cent in 1992-93 to 30 percent in 2005-06, as shown in Table1.

                Table 1 India:  Level of unplanned /unwanted fertility, 1992-2006

Item	1992-92	1998-99	2005-06
Unplanned  pregnancies
Per cent of unplanned births	23.1	21.6	21.0
·         Unplanned Births (in million)	5.8	5.8	5.5
Unwanted fertility
Per cent of unwanted  fertility	22.1	25.5	29.6
·         Persons in age 0-35 resulting from  unwanted fertility (in million)	140	178	218
Based on data obtained from National Family Health Survey 1, 2 & 3 and Sample Registration Bulletins.

The consequences of unintended pregnancy are serious, imposing significant burden on women and families, and in turn slowing down the process of women’s empowerment. Unintended pregnancy breeds powerlessness and powerlessness breeds subordination (quality of obedient submissiveness) and subordination breeds unintended pregnancy.  And women find themselves in a vicious circle, as shown below[2]:

Can all the impending challenges be solved? Probably note. What is possible, however, is to make these more manageable. One area where urgent attention is required is to decelerate growth of population significantly, especially in the Four Large North Indian States. And the next blog aims in this direction.

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[1] IIPS.  2007.  India: National Family Health Survey, 2005-06. Mumbai:  International Institute for Population Sciences.

[2] For details, see: Kothari, Devendra. 2010.  “Empowering women in India through better reproductive healthcare”, FPA Working Paper No 5, Jaipur: Forum for Population Action.

Resultant demographic scenario and its implications for India (Part II)

Emerging demographic divide:

The findings of the Census of India 2011 clearly reinforce that two contrasting demographic "nations" are emerging in the country. In 1951, the Four Southern Indian States (Andhra Pradesh (AP), Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu (TN)) had 26 per cent of India’s population and by 2011, that figure has declined to 21 per cent. In 2051, as per the long term population projections (PRB 2007), the combined population of these States is projected to be only 16 per cent of the country’s total. On the other hand, the population of Four Large North Indian (FLNI) States of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh (MP), Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh (UP) will increase from 37 per cent in 2011 to 44 per cent in 2051. This is mainly due to fast decline in fertility in the southern states of India in last 25 years as compared to FLNI States, as shown below:

                       Table 1 Number of children per woman

Year	Bihar	MP	Raj	UP	India	AP	Karnataka	Kerala	TN
1981	5.7	5.2	5.2	5.8	4.5	4.0	3.6	2.8	3.4
2006	4.0	3.1	3.2	3.8	2.7	1.8	2.0	1.9	1.8
Source: Registrar General of India and NFHS-3 (2005-06)

While all the States in South India have already achieved the replacement level fertility of 2.1 children per woman required to initiate the process of population stabilization, the FLNI States have a long way to go before they achieve this level.

This sort of fertility pattern will have far reaching political implications. Table 2 shows changing rank of ten most populous States in 1951 arranged by population size. It is interesting to note that Tamil Nadu and Rajasthan will swap their respective positions in the year 2051 as compared to 1951. Tamil Nadu will move down from its fifth position in term of population size in 1951 to 10th in the year 2051. On the other hand, Rajasthan will move on to take the fifth position from its tenth rank. And this will change the political demography of India. It is in this context that fear policies playing havoc with human numbers in the country is not largely unfounded[1]. The slogans like “sons of soil” may be raised in a large scale. The changing face of demography in India, therefore, in the next 20 years or so will pose serious challenges to democracy as well as national unity by its sheer size.

                                 Table 2 India: Changing rank of ten most populous States   in 1951 arranged

                                  by population size, 1951-2051

State	1951	1981	2011	2051*
Uttar Pradesh	I	I	I	I
Maharashtra	II	II	II	III
Andhra Pradesh	III	IV	V	VII
Bihar	IV	V	III	II
Tamil Nadu	V	VI	VII	X
West Bengal	VI	III	IV	IV
Karnataka	VII	VIII	IX	IX
Madhya Pradesh	VIII	VII	VI	VI
Gujarat	IX	X	X	VIII
Rajasthan	X	IX	VIII	V
Based on data obtained from Census of India 2011 - Provisional Population Totals, Paper 1, March 2011, Registrar General, India, and * Population Reference Bureau (PFI & PRB 2007).

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[1]During the discussion on Consideration of Issues of Population Stabilization in the Country held in Lok Sabha on August 4, 2010, SHRI C. SIVASAMI, Member of Parliament from Tiruppur, Tamil Nadu said: “In India, we find in the Southern States ……we have succeeded there in bringing down the population increase. But in certain Northern States we are quite unable to control population explosion and we are really struggling hard. This has resulted in a situation where the Northern States get more funds according to their population and the so-called States in the South are getting reduced funds from the Centre. I urge upon the Union Government to evolve a method to provide incentives to the Southern States which have succeeded in effectively controlling the population growth, but to the contrary they are being deprived of their share”.  For details, see Lok Sabha Proceedings, 2010, p. 4134.