Rtn. (Dr.) Devendra Kothari
Prof. Population Program Management
Global population has reached 7 billion on October 31, 2011,
just 12 years after reaching 6 billion in 1999. “The eighth billion may also take
about 12 years, but only if birth rates in all developing countries follow
projections that assume a smooth decline to two children or fewer," says
Carl Haub, PRB's senior demographer. While declines in birth rates have been virtually universal across
countries, the pattern of decline has been very variable. In most countries, birth rates have fallen below two
children or are in process of achieve that level; birth rates in other countries,
mainly located in Africa and Asia, have decreased to medium levels or have
barely begun to decrease. It is therefore
entirely possible that the 8th billion may reach in the next 10 to 11 years,
placing us squarely in the middle of history's most rapid population expansion.
And high levels of fertility and
population growth make it far more difficult for families and societies to
overcome poverty. Here,
Rotary can play a catalytic role in motivating the policy makers to focus their
attention to resolve the issue of growing population, as it did in case of
Polio Eradication[1]. This is why the world is looking towards
Rotary to take the challenge[2].
Today, most population growth is concentrated in the
world's poorest countries and within the poorest regions of those countries.
And it is mainly because more than “two in five pregnancies worldwide are
unintended or unwanted by the women who experience them, and half or more of
these pregnancies result in births that spur continued population growth”, as
noted by Robert Engelman, who authored the highly acclaimed
book: More: Population, Nature, and What Women Want.
Are people in poor countries against small family norm?
While world’s population continues to grow by around 85-90 million annually,
more than 200 million women, mainly from the poor countries lack access to
basic contraception. Often, these women must travel far from their communities
to reach a health facility, only to return home “empty handed” due to shortages
and stock-outs as well as non availability of staff. When women seeking family
planning services are turned away, they are unable to protect themselves from
unintended pregnancies and sexually-transmitted infections, including HIV/AIDS,
as argued by the Population Action International, Washington DC.
The main reason could be that the
international community has allowed attention to drift away from the reproductive
health. “Over the past ten years population
issues have lost priority”, as noted by the report: Return of the Population Growth
Factor: Its Impact on the Millennium Development Goals. The report further
notes that “funding has stagnated or decreased at a time when unmet
need for family planning information and services is increasing”[3].
There is an urgent need to focus on population growth,
since global population is projected to grow from seven billion in 2011 to over
9.3 billion by 2050. Of this growth, around 90% of this will be concentrated in
the poor performing countries. Here, the Indian case needs special attention.
With around 1.2 billion people, India is currently the second most populous
nation in the world. The UN Population Division projects that it will surpass
China as the most populous within 15 to 20 years. India's
population is projected to peak at 1.7 billion in 2060. China at its peak in
2025 will have 1.4 billion people. In fact, when China peaks, India will have
already surpassed it in population. Other countries which will contribute
significantly in the near future are: Nigeria, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Philippines,
etc. (see, Blog: kotharioninida.blogspot.com, dated
29.11.2011).
Now question arises
as how to forge ahead? The most important and positive steps are still largely
unrecognized by policymakers. Here the women centred approach could be a positive option
that has been largely unrecognized by policymakers as well as by many bilateral
and philanthropic organizations. In the changed
situation, most women even in the poorest countries do not want more children,
but that they have them is mainly due to non-availability and inaccessibility
of quality reproductive healthcare services. They have been trapped in a
vicious circle[4].
The women need help to have children by choice and not by chance. This requires
steady political as well as administrative will, which sadly has, so far, been
inconsistent. The need of the hour,
thus, is to create confidence among policy makers and programme managers as
well as among the donor agencies that a breakthrough is possible by adopting a
feminist agenda for population stabilization. We need creative policies
to strengthen this foundation.
As such, Rotary
International and its sub-divisions like Rotarian Action Group for Population Growth and Sustainable Development (RFPD) [5] must re-emphasize
its commitment to population stabilization and provide essential leadership to promote reproductive
health services and increase awareness of the social, economic, and
environmental consequences of rapid population growth. Also one should work
actively to educate policymakers, program managers, the media and the general
public about population issues. We hope that the Rotary will take leadership role in
organizing discussions on this important issue by involving major partners, as
it did in the late nineties by organizing a number of international population submit.
We are sure that the
Rotary International will
take the position that every child should be a wanted one. Achieving this goal
would prevent the suffering of women and their families and the social problems
that often follow the birth of unwanted children under the motto “Service Above Self”.
The next post discusses what should be the New Year
resolution for India.
Wishing
you a New Year filled with New Hope and New Beginnings!!!
[1]
The most notable global
project, Polio Plus, was initiated by the Rotary International to eradicate the
polio in 1985. Inspired by Rotary's commitment, many organizations joined the
eradication effort. In 1988, the World Health Organization (WHO) passed a resolution to eradicate
polio by 2000.
[2] The Rotary International is a worldwide net work of inspired
individuals who translate their passions into relevant social cause to change
lives in communities. With Rotary’s rich, religious, ethnic, and cultural
background and with membership in over 160 countries, many believe that Rotary
is the ideal organization to address this challenge like polio eradication.
[3]
The Report is based on discussion with the All Party
Parliamentary Group on Population, Development and Reproductive Health. For details, see
report: Return of the Population Growth Factor: Its Impact on the Millennium
Development Goals, 2007 (http://www.appg-popdevrh.org.uk/).
[4] For
details, see: Kothari Devendra, “Empowering Women in
India through Better Reproductive Healthcare”, FPA
Working Paper No 5, Jaipur: Forum for Population Action, 2010.
[5] Founded in 1996,
the 23,000+ members of the Rotarian Action Group for Population Growth and
Sustainable Development (RFPD), Inc. work to address the population crisis
around the world. RFPD is dedicated to educating and motivating the 1.2 million
Rotarians around the world about developing and implementing projects that directly
address the population issue.
