Dr. Devendra Kothari
Population and Development Analyst
Forum for Population Action
Recent ethnic strife in
Assam and elsewhere in India has put the spotlight yet again on illegal migration
from Bangladesh, which is assumed to be the root cause for unrest in the entire north-eastern region that threatens to spill over. Yet, illegal
migration from especially from our eastern neighbor ceased to figure as a problem in talks
between India and Bangladesh since 1992. Neither the Congress-led UPA nor the
BJP-led NDA governments at the Centre raised the "problem" with
Bangladesh, said sources in the Ministry of External Affairs and the Government
of Bangladesh. However, the problem of large scale illegal migration exists. What exactly is the magnitude of the illegal
migration in India? Nobody knows. It is because no one has done a dispassionate
study to find out the scale of migration[1]. “It's
a highly emotive issue that recurs in political rhetoric," said former
Intelligence Bureau Special Director
R N Ravi, who handled north-east[2]. Other
experts agree illegal migration has been politicized, but not addressed. Veena
Sikri, ex-Indian high commissioner to Dhaka, said, “Bangladesh is in denial and
there are no clear positions within India on the issue. India needs to quantify
the problem in the interest of good bilateral relation”. An attempt has been
made in this post to estimate the level
of international in- migration during the last decade (2001-11).
Since accurate data on migration is
difficult to obtain, an indirect method has been used to estimate the figure by
using census and vital statistics. The population of a country/area grows or decreases as a
result of both natural increase (births minus deaths) and net migration
(in-migration minus out-migration). During the decade 2001-11, India’s
population increased by more than 181.5 million[3].
During the corresponding period, however, natural increase of population was
178 million, as derived from the SRS (Sample Registration System) natural
increase growth rate[4]. An analysis of these data reveals that India
as a whole tends to be a ‘importer’ of
people from overseas, and this probably explains in part why India's
intercensal growth rate is slightly higher than its rate of natural increase
(1.62% vs. 1.60%).
It appears that
during the decade, around 3.5 million more people were enumerated in India than
was expected. Now question arises who are these people? Some of them came from other neighboring countries
like Nepal, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, Myanmar, etc. But most of remaining - around 3 million-
came from Bangladesh alone, but illegally.
An
analysis of demographic data of Bangladesh supports this conclusion. According
to UN Population Division, Bangladesh is a net out-migrating country. During
the 2001-11 decade around 4.3 million Bangladeshi left the country. “The
realities of poverty, underemployment, and a large working-age population mean
that international labor migration is an expected and necessary part of life
for many Bangladeshi men and women”, writes Nazli Kibria[5]
. Bangladesh has
registered a 5 to 6 percent rate of annual economic growth since the mid-1990s,
and has made important progress in the areas of primary education, population
control, and the reduction of hunger. Despite these positive developments,
however, poverty in Bangladesh is widespread, affecting the lives of perhaps
half of the population. In this predominantly rural country, overpopulation and
environmental degradation have contributed to a large, landless population. Kibria
whites further that “widespread poverty, underemployment, and a youthful age
structure have all contributed to the predominance of economically motivated
international migration from Bangladesh”. Since the 1980s, Bangladesh has been
an increasingly important source country in international flows of contract
labor migration. The primary destinations for Bangladeshi migrants have been
the Arab Gulf countries. According to the official figures of the Bureau of
Manpower, Employment, and Training (BMET) of the Government of Bangladesh, over
5 million Bangladeshis migrated to work in these cointries between 1976 and
2009, with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates being the top country
destinations.
In addition to contract labor
migration, there are other types of movements that are part of the larger
landscape of international migration in Bangladesh. Driven by cross-border
trade and other economic opportunities, there are irregular migration streams
to neighboring India. This migration is also informed by the shared histories
of Bangladesh and India, and the presence of long-standing communities that
straddle the borders of the two countries[6].
For decades, India has received a
constant inflow of unauthorized migrants from Bangladesh. According to a survey
conducted by the Indian Statistical Institute in 2002-2003, most have economic
reasons for migrating, such as poverty and the lack of employment
opportunities, in addition to political instability. These migrants generally
find work as cheap labor in the informal sector, often as domestic helpers,
construction laborers, rickshaw pullers, and rag pickers. The Bangladeshi
government does not officially recognize those migrants and thus does not
provide help or support.
As with most illegal migration, data on
its extent is scarce. The Home Ministry of Government of India estimated the
number of unauthorized Bangladeshis as of December 2001 at 12 million, residing
in 17 Indian States. However, in February 2009, the Home Ministry withdrew
these data as "unreliable" and based on "mere hearsay." Political
scientist Kamal Sadiq has estimated the number of illegal migrants from
Bangladesh at 15 to 20 million, basing the number partly on documented growth
of Muslim communities and partly on unpublished government reports.
No
country in the world can afford illegal migrants. How India should be
responding to the challenge of managing this 4,100-km border between the two
countries, made even more difficult by its zig-zag contours.Regarding
illegal immigrants, it is very difficult for India to do well in such a big
country where there are many places to hide and many hands to help illegal
immigrants. One of the suggestions has been for stricter and ruthless
management of the border. But this will not solve the problem, writes George Varghese[7].
Illegal migrations still take place across the land borders of the US, possibly
among the best managed in the world. When it comes to ruthlessness
shown to intruders, the India-Bangladesh border is the world’s bloodiest – in
the decade up to 2011, nearly 1,000 people were killed while attempting to
cross it, in shootings by the Border Security Force, according to an estimate
by Human Rights Watch. A 2.5-metre-high fencing is being constructed
along this border. Still, people do attempt – and manage – to cross over, as
they try to flee desperate poverty in Bangladesh. So while focusing on better
management of the border, India will have to search for holistic solutions too.
There is a golden window currently open with Bangladesh – to improve economic
and transportation ties which can dramatically catalyze the development of India’s
east and North-east and that of Bangladesh. In addition, India’s illegal-immigration
problem could be alleviated with identification technology that has to be expedited.
If problem
of illegal migration from Bangladesh is not resolved immediately, then a
Hindu-Muslim conflict will take shape and it will be seed for civil unrest. Recent demonstrations
in Mumbai and exodus of people of NE from Bangalore support this argument. Let
the Government of India takes initiative to immediately address this problem. In short, the growing
illegal migration is a threat not only to the India’s entire north-eastern
region but to the entire country. It has
to be taken seriously by all parties concerned
[1] The Migration Policy
Institute, Washington DC offers some useful data, and essential facts on the movement of
people worldwide
[2] See article by Rakhi Chakrabarty, Migrants
issue skirted in Bangladesh talks, Times of
India, Aug 26, 2012.
[3] Devendra Kothari,
“Implications of Emerging Demographic Scenario: Based on the Provisional
Results of Census of India 2011”, A Brief, a publication of Management Institute of
Population and Development – A Unit of Parivar Seva Sanstha, New Delhi,
2011.
[4] The natural
increase rate was estimated by using Sample Registration System (SRS) data. The
SRS is a continuous dual record demographic sample survey that has been
operating for about 40 years and yields relatively reliable demographic
estimates. Moreover, it is the only data collection system in India that
regularly produces estimates of both birth and death rates. It was initiated by
the office of Registrar General, India in a pilot basis in a few selected
States in 1964-65, and it became operational during 1969-70 covering about 3700
sample units. Subsequently, the sample size was further increased. At present
SRS covers 7,597 sample units (4433 rural and 3,164 urban) spared across all
States and Union Territories and covers bout 1.5 million households and 7.10
million population in all States/UTs.
[5] For details, see
article by Nazli
Kibria, “Working Hard for the Money: Bangladesh Faces Challenges
of Large-Scale Labor Migration”, Migration Policy Institute,
Washington, DC 2011
[6] The boundary between
Bangladesh and India was drawn by British from Delhi or London. They never
consulted local people. Family, land and even home was divided due to this
impractical boundary.
[7] See article by George Varghese,
“It’s a borderline case”, Hindustan Times, August, 17, 2012.
