There is sense of restlessness in the country. Every Indian
knows what’s wrong. What every Indian wants to know is how it’s going to be
right. After 65 years, political rhetoric will not do.[1]
Devendra Kothari PhD
Population and Development Analyst
Forum for Population Action
This
post is an effort to encourage discussion and debate about what should be India’s
priorities to achieve inclusive growth. The debate between two of the finest
Indian economists — Amartya Sen and Jagdish Bhagwati — reflects the deeper question
facing India’s political leaders and policy makers.[2] The debate between Bhagwati and Panagariya on the one
side, and Sen and Dreze on the other has sharpened after the two sets of
researchers released their new books on India.[3]
While Sen believes that India should invest more in its welfare and
social schemes to reduce inequality, otherwise, inequality will widen and the
growth process itself will falter. Bhagwati, on the other hand, holds up growth
as the panacea for all of India’s ills. He believes that growth may raise
inequality initially but sustained growth will eventually raise enough
resources for the State to redistribute and mitigate the effects of the initial
inequality.
The ongoing debate has generated more heat than light. This is presented as distribution
versus growth argument. However, I
strongly believe that India needs a balanced ‘development’ strategy. Mere focus
on boosting growth through large investment and opening up the economy without
emphasizing on human development is not a panacea for India’s long-term socio-economic
challenges. On the other hand, an excessive focus on subsidy and dole-driven welfare
policies could slam the brakes on the economy and drag people below the poverty
line, rather than push up per capita income and welfare. Culture of freebies
will not help in the long term. The Food Security Bill, for example, is a bad
policy measure and does no service to the poor.[4] It
fails the country on the two critical counts: on economic implications and
winning the war against malnutrition. Real prosperity, especially inclusive
growth can only be brought about by focusing on basic structural changes aiming
to improve human resources, as has been done initially by many developing
countries including China, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Brazil and Mexico. "Re-imagining India", published recently by
McKinsey, has scores of suggestions on "unlocking the potential of Asia`s
next superpower". It is argued that human development however is vital if we are
to re-boot India.[5] If the rest of the developing world and especially Asian countries have
forged ahead, it is because after 1950 they took extra care of education and
health including reproductive health as well as living environment.
India has not given due
recognition to the concept of equality in sharing the resources in its
population and development planning. Even today, after more than twenty years
of economic reforms, the visitor to India - whether from developed or
developing world - is struck by the gross inequalities. That is why during the last few years India
has been increasingly witnessing mass risings like the Anna’s anti-corruption
movement in 2011, and the Delhi gang rape uprising of new generation in 2012. In
other words, there is a sense of restlessness in the country. There is an urgent need to have a focussed agenda to achieve
the “inclusive growth”.[6] The post aims in this direction.
No doubt indicators of human
development such as health including maternal and infant mortality, education,
living conditions, gender equality, etc. show steady improvement, but they also
suggest that the progress is slow and India continues to lag behind several
other developing countries. Other
indicators of deprivation suggest that the proportion of the population
deprived of a minimum level of living is much higher. For example, National
Family Health Survey-3 (NFHS-3) shows that almost 46% of the children in the 0
to 3 years’ age group suffered from malnutrition in 2005–06, and what is even
more disturbing is that the estimate shows almost no decline from the level of
47% reported in 1998 by NFHS-2.
In fact, things are
going from bad to worse. India’s rank in the latest UN’s Human Development
Report has fallen from 128 in 2003 to 136 out of 187 countries and territories
in 2013. Further, India still has quite
some way to go in bridging the gender gap in the areas of health, education and
economics, if not politics. It has been ranked 101 among 136 countries in the
The Global Gender Gap Report 2013 released by the World Economic Forum.
Also, the country has fallen from 96th rank in 2006 to 101 in the
last 8 years, revealing a stark and deep rooted gender gap in India. In addition, recent studies
paint a grim picture of education, posing the risk of eroding the long-term
competitiveness of World’s fourth largest economy. The secondary students from
the States of Tamil Nadu and Himachal Pradesh, showpieces for education development
in India, who were put on a global stage stood very low on their reading, math
and science abilities. India ranked second last among the 73 countries that
participated in the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA),
conducted by the OECD Secretariat
to evaluate education systems worldwide. China, which participated in PISA for
the first time along with India, scored the highest in reading. It also topped
the charts in mathematics and science. And finally, India’s own Pratham`s
Annual Status of Education Report (ASER), 2012, assessing schools in rural
India, found declining attendance, over-reliance on private tuitions and
declining reading and mathematical abilities of children in the 6 to 14 years
age category. In just three years between 2010 and 2012, percentage of fifth
graders in rural public schools who
can read second grade-level text has declined from 51% to 42%. Further,
achievement levels in arithmetic have fallen drastically. Percentage of fifth
graders who could do a simple two-digit subtraction has fallen from 71% to 53%
in three years. Today, more children are going to school but what they are
learning is not clear. This is alarming and pathetic. Furthermore, a recent
report of OECD reported that India’s income inequality doubled in the two
decades to 2011.
All this is a
rather shameful reflection of the
prevailing conditions in a country that is said to be on a growth song, and
indicate that India is heading towards an unstable situation of extreme danger
or difficulty that could lead to despair, social instability, political strife,
policymaking paralysis and capital flight as well as a rapid collapse in growth
rates.
How forge ahead? It
appears that efforts made over the years to improve the quality of human
resources have partially been neutralized by neglecting some basic areas. The threshold
for dire poverty in developing countries is set by the World Bank at $1.25 a
day of consumption (rather than income). This is an international yardstick by
which poverty level in developing countries is measured. Accordingly, around one-third of India's population (about 400
million people) is living below International Poverty Line.[7] It is observed that more and more people in India could fall into
extreme poverty due to soaring food and energy prices in coming years.[8] As such, one has to empower Indians, especially pooer ones to participate in the economy, both as producers and
consumers, as argued by Prof. Sunil
Khilani of King’s India Institute, London.[9] For this, more
than food security act and NREGA, India needs universal public health, education
better living conditions, etc., as discussed below:
One has to recognize that population is an important
factor in development, especially when it is growing seemingly out of control
since it leads to a significant diversion of national investable resources to
consumption which could otherwise be used for increasing investment and
productivity and for improving the quality of public services. India’s
population has grown from 361 million in 1951 to 1210 million in 2011, and is still growing by around 17 to 18
million every year. India’s population is
projected to peak at 1700 million in 2060. The population growth is
mainly fuelled by unwanted fertility.
More than four in ten pregnancies are unintended/unplanned or simply unwanted by the women who experience
them and half or more of these pregnancies result in births that spur continued
population growth. Around 26.5
million children are born in India every year and out of this about 6 million
births have been classified as unwanted. It is estimated that around 450
million people out of 1200 million in 2011 in India who were product of
unwanted pregnancies, and most of them are from the lower economic strata.[10] The
consequences of unintended pregnancy are serious, slowing down the process of
socio-economic development as well as process of change, and is being
reflected in widespread hunger, poverty, under educated labour force, unemployment,
, regressing governance as well as increasing scarcity of basic resources like
food, water and space despite concerted developmental efforts since 1991.
India’s
large unwanted fertility, a threat to sustainable development and achieving
inclusiveness, demands immediate attention. On the other hand, most of the
developing countries, during their initial stage of development, gave importance or urgency to the issues
like population stabilization including maternal and child health as well as
literacy. There
may be several reasons behind unwanted childbearing, but most important one is
related to the imperfect control over the reproductive process. So letting women have the means to manage
their childbearing will help to make India a more stable and equal place. Key
to this new approach should be to provide quality reproductive health services
with contraceptive choices. When women have access to contraception appropriate
to their needs, desires, and budgets, the potential benefits are many,
including reduced maternal and child mortality as well as lesser number of
abortions and unwanted pregnancies. In addition to its health benefits, family
planning allows families and communities to invest more in education and health
care and helps reduce poverty, as argued by the President of Population
Council, Peter J. Donaldson. Children by choice not by chance are the only way
poor can aspire a better life.
Another issue which
needs equal attention is quality of education. Many Indians including policy
makers believe
that India has an
inevitable advantage in its young “human capital”. Can
India take advantage of this demographic window in the next couple of decades
and garner its benefits? Today, more children are going to school
but what they are learning is not clear. Can they get any job in the market if
they continue such education? Unless education is rescued from quagmire of
mediocrity, all talk about realizing India’s demographic dividend will be
without substance; and the country would be inching closer to socio-economic
disaster. Right to Education with quality must be available to all, since deep
frustration begins with half or low quality education. The enjoyment of the
education could be enhanced if there is an acknowledgement of the problems that
beset India’s educational system and if there is a willingness to solve such
problems. There is an urgent need to
explore issues which need urgent attention.[11]
Physical living
conditions are equally important in producing an enabling environment for quality
of life and inclusive growth. Findings of the Census of India 2011 – Tables on
Houses, Household Amenities and Assets indicate that sub-human living conditions still haunt
people. Only 47% of households have a source of water
within the premises while 53% of households travel more than half a kilometre in rural
areas and more than 100 meters in urban areas to fetch their supplies. This problem is further compounded
by lack of access to sanitation. About
half of total households in India still defecate in open. This situation
is particularly piquant for women and girls.
It is estimated that around 290 million women in India in 2011, the worst sufferers of open
defecation, continue with the age-old practice even after 20 years of economic
reforms. Only 28% of the households use LPG
(Liquefied Petroleum Gas) as a cooing fuel. Around
two-thirds of the total households have electricity as the
main source of lighting in the country in 2011.
Any improvement in access to toilet
facilities, water, electricity and LPG is likely to result in a considerable
reduction in domestic drudgery especially for girls/women, freeing up their
time for other activities including schooling and perusing professional life.
India is
simply not doing enough for its women to improve access to resources and
freedom of movement as well as improving decision making power. There is an urgent need to rethink as how to
expedite the process of women empowerment in a patriarchal and traditional
society with innumerable obstacles. After the Delhi gang rape
murder, crimes against women are engaging national attention like never before,
and there is greater demand for effective crime prevention, strict
implementation of law and expeditious justice delivery. But this alone is not going to help. Let us not construe the problem so narrowly. To deal with a problem that has roots
in social behaviour and prejudice, mere legislation is not enough. To achieve
the long-term vision, however, one has to create an environment where sons and
daughters are equally valued. At the same time
women empowerment requires undoing of patriarchal myths. For this, women must have
access to education and training along with economic empowerment through
property rights, favourable credit and entrepreneurial support as well as
opportunity in paid employment. Insuring reproductive rights and better living
conditions could be another effective way to empower women in India.
In
the broader context of the debate on India’s inclusive growth, it is
appropriate to accelerate the process of urbanization. Urbanisation is the process in which the number
of people living in the urban areas increases compared to the rural ones. It is
considered as the engine of economic and social change. Because
of higher levels of productivity and wages in urban areas in general and large
cities in particular, the “consumption poverty” at least is expected to be
lower than in rural areas.[12]
As such, the migrants from the backward regions are expected to benefit
migrating into urban areas.
The
level of urbanization in India, unlike the experience of several developing
countries at comparable levels of economic growth, has been quite low. It
increased sluggishly from 17.3% in 1951 to 31.2% in 2011. The definition of
urban seems to be quite broad, and hence, it includes areas which still do not
show any dynamism as the term urbanization would tend to imply. As a result, a
sizable proportion of so-called urban population virtually live in “rural
areas”. There is an urgent need to
expedite the process of “real” urbanization in the country to achieve a
balanced development.
Also, economic growth
across regions has not been balanced, with some of the most backward areas,
mainly located in the four large north Indian States of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh,
Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, yet to experience any significant growth. The
delivery of essential social services like health and education at the grass
roots level is also poor and this is a major causative factor in unequal
development.
In sum, it is indeed sad
that the policy makers/politicians in India who are talking of inclusive growth
are yet to suggest an effective plan of action. It is high time that political
parties focus on improving people’s ability to earn more rather than dolling
out subsidies that make people dependent on the political class and
system. The immediate vision of India’s
development planning must, therefore, ensure broad-based improvement in the
quality of life of the people, especially those belonging to the bottom of
pyramid. In this context, the above noted action areas - namely reproductive health, education, living
conditions and gender equality as well as higher level of “real” urbanization -
will play decisive role. These are much bigger and effective interventions and India must think about.
[1]
Based on the
observation of Mr. Shekhar Kapur, Filmmaker on poll promises.
[2] For the
Sen-Bhagwati debate, link at:
[3] Jean Dreze and
Amartya Sen. 2013. An Uncertain Glory: India and its contradictions,
Allen Lane; Jagdish Bhagwati and Arvind Panagariya.
2012. India’s Trust with Destiny, Harper Collins.
[4] See author’s
post - Food Security Bill and malnutrition in India- at http://kotharionindia.blogspot.in/2013/06/food-security-bill-and-malnutrition-in.html.
[5] For details, see: Reimagining India: Unlocking the
Potential of Asia's Next Superpower by McKinsey & Company, 2013.
[6] The Twelfth Five Year Plan (2012-2017) aims
at “faster, sustainable and more inclusive growth”. But how, it is not very clear.
[7] As per the Planning Commission, Government of India, at the all
India level share of the population below poverty line (BPL) was 21.9% in
2011-12, almost 270 million. This means that every fifth Indian lives below the
poverty line. The government has set the
bar abysmally low, defining
as BPL anyone earning Rs. 27.20 or less in rural areas and up to Rs 33.30 in
urban areas. This is totally erroneous.
[8] “India: Why pace of development is slow?” Blog Entries by
Devendra K Kothari at: http://kotharionindia.blogspot.in/2013/09/india-why-pace-of-development-is-slow.html.
[10] Devendra Kothari,
“Implications of Emerging Demographic Scenario: Based on the Provisional
Results of Census of India 2011”, A
Brief, a publication of Management
Institute of Population and Development – A Unit of Parivar Seva Sanstha, New
Delhi, 2011.
[11] “Education in India needs intensive care, not a quick fix
(Part II)” Blog
Entries by Devendra K Kothari at: http://kotharionindia.blogspot.in/2013/12/education-in-india-needs-intensive-care.html.
[12] Mitra Anup. 2013. Insights
into Inclusive Growth, Employment and Wellbeing in India, Springer, New Delhi.
