Devendra Kothari PhD
Population and Development Analyst
Forum for Population Action
“Population
growth fueled by unwanted fertility and resource deprivation are important predictors
of crime in a jurisdiction".
Crime and crime rates, as measured
by official statistics, have not been static. Explaining why changes occur is
not simple. There is growing evidence that social and economic factors, such as
poverty, unemployment and income disparity, are correlated with
crime.[1] I, however, strongly
believe the population growth fueled by unwanted fertility is one of
the most important predictors influencing the amount and nature of crimes
committed. Crime
is present in many forms in India, and it would not be wrong even if we say it
is present in all forms be it drug trafficking, smuggling, money laundering, robbery, extortion, murder, poaching or nefarious
activities like rape, kidnapping, molestation, sexual harassment, etc.[2] However, the steep rise in crime
statistic in the last two decades is a cause
for alarm. Crime leaves
deep scars in the society; therefore we need to study the patterns and causes
of crimes to identify remedial measures and policy interventions to contain
crimes. The post aims in this direction.
The selected crime-head-wise
incidence, reported by the National
Crime Records Bureau for the period 1991-2011 along
with percentage variation in 2011 over 1991, is presented in Table 1. It is apparent that the incidence of the total
reported cognizable crimes
under IPC increased by 39% during the last twenty years, however, and increase
in crime against women is much more, as shown in the table. The growth rate of crimes against women is more than two times (90%) that
of the total crimes committed in the corresponding period. Earlier, many cases were not
registered due to the social stigma attached to rape and molestation cases,
although experts agree that the cases of unreported sexual assault are still
much higher.
Table 1: Incidence of cognizable Crimes under IPC, 1981-2011
Crime
|
Year
|
% change in 2011 over 1991
|
||
1991
|
2001
|
2011
|
||
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
Reported cognizable crimes
under IPC
|
||||
Total
|
1,678,375
|
1,769,308
|
2,325,575
|
39
|
Crime against women
|
||||
Rape
|
10,410
|
16,075
|
24,206
|
133
|
kidnapping & abduction
|
20,079
|
22,487
|
35,565
|
77
|
Molestation
|
23,629
|
34,124
|
42,968
|
81
|
Sexual harassment
|
-
|
9,746
|
8,570
|
-
|
Source:
National Crime Records Bureau,
Government of India
|
||||
Recent
year saw several gruesome cases of rape and assault on women; they shocked not
only the country but the world as a whole. Of the total
number of crimes against women reported in 2011, more than three-fourths
related to kidnapping & abduction, molestation and sexual harassment. First
two types of crimes increased more than 80% in the last twenty years. However,
rape is the fasted growing crime in India, with registered rape cases increased
from 10410 in 1991 to 24206 in 2011, that is by 133%. Sources show
that rape cases in India have more than doubled between 1997 and 2011. The latest figures
released by the Rajasthan State Crime Records Bureau (2013) reveals that nearly
15 women are being sexually harassed, while nine cases of rape are being
registered everyday in Rajasthan. A huge increase has been reported in the
number of rape cases despite a nationwide cry over the crimes against women in
the wake of the infamous Nirbhaya gang rape case in Delhi in the last month of 2012.
The rape cases in Rajasthan increased by 60% in 2013 compared to 2012.
The National Crime Records Bureau in its report has
stated that people under the age group of 16-25 have been responsible for 56%
of crimes committed in the country, and
their involvement has increased significantly in recent years. The youth crime
harms communities, creates a culture of fear. The reason needs to be found out:
Is it due to unemployment or excessive freedom that prevails in our society? Is
the frustration alone forcing people towards crime? Is the deteriorating
governance pushing youth towards crime? It
is true that there are many factors that affected the level of reported crime
in an area or jurisdiction. Viewed in this way, crime is a dependent variable,
i.e., it is dependent on all the other factors that might give rise to crime in
a jurisdiction. Among various factors, it is well established that the volume
of crime within a jurisdiction is highly correlated with the population
characteristics such as change in size and density or its demographic and
socioeconomic makeup. [3] In this context the role of unwanted
fertility (defined
as actual fertility in excess of desired fertility) has not been given due importance in understanding the crime scenario
in a jurisdiction.
The crimes are more in some states of
India as compared to others, as shown in Table 2. In 2012, for example, the
high rate of kidnapping &
abduction of women and girls was reported
by the northern states of Rajasthan (8.15 per 100,000 females), Uttar Pradesh
(8.14) and Bihar (7.9) while states of Kerala (1.2) and Andhra Pradesh recorded
very low crime rates. In facts, the
kidnapping &
abduction rate in Rajasthan was 6.7
times that of Kerala and 2.5 times that of Andhra Pradesh located in the
southern India. The table also indicates that wherever the population growth
(col. 4) and unwanted fertility (col.5) are low, and female literacy (col.6) is
high the incidence of crime against women is also low.
Table 2: Incidence of kidnapping & abduction of women and girls during 2012 and other
information, selected states
State
|
Kidnapping
&
Abduction
|
Selected
population characteristics
|
||||
%
decadal population growth (2001-11)
|
Number of unwanted births per woman (2005-06)
|
%
of females literate (2011)
|
||||
Incidence
|
Rate
of crime per 100,000 females
|
|||||
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
|
Rajasthan
|
2,697
|
8.15
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
53
|
|
Uttar Pradesh
|
7,910
|
8.14
|
1.5
|
1.5
|
59
|
|
Bihar
|
3,789
|
7.90
|
1.6
|
1.6
|
53
|
|
India
|
38,262
|
6.54
|
0.8
|
0.8
|
66
|
|
Tamil Nadu
|
1,693
|
5.00
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
74
|
|
Andhra Pradesh
|
1,403
|
3.29
|
0.3
|
0.3
|
60
|
|
Kerala
|
214
|
1.20
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
92
|
|
Sources: Crime in India 2012 Statistics, National Crime Records Bureau, Ministry of
Home Affairs, Government of India, Census of India 2011 and national Family
Health Survey (2005-06).
|
||||||
The rising crime wave has raised
many disturbing questions. Is India’s social system crumbling? Are the
youngsters really more crime-prone than they have been in the past? What then is the solution? The solution
lies in focusing on certain policy issues. In this context the role of population characteristics
like unwanted fertility has not been given due importance in analyzing the
crime scenario in India. Therefore, an understanding the exact nature of the
relationship between these two variables may be helpful to policy makers and
criminologists who sometimes must make responsible comparisons of
jurisdictional crime rates.
One has to recognize that population is an important
factor in understanding the crime scenario in India. India’s population
has grown from 846 million in 1991 to 1210 million in 2011 that is by 43% in
last twenty years, and is still growing
by around 17 to 18 million every year. The population
growth is mainly fuelled by unwanted fertility.
More than four in ten pregnancies are unintended/unplanned or unwanted by the women who experience them and half or
more of these pregnancies result in births that spur continued population
growth. According
to estimates in the National Family Health Survey-3 (2005-06), 21% of all
births to currently married women during the five years between 2001 and 2006
were unplanned or unintended; 11% were reported by the parents as having never
been wanted. Only one percent of first births were never wanted, but nearly 30%
of all fourth or higher order births were so reported. In theory, this
incidence of unwanted births implies that nearly 6 million births occurring in 2005-06
would never have occurred had the complete availability of perfect fertility
control permitted couples to realize their preferences. And these estimates are
all conservative. Also, the level of unwanted fertility could be measured by
comparing the total wanted (desired) fertility rate with the total (actual)
fertility rate (TFR). A comparison of the TFR with the total wanted fertility
rate indicates the level of unwanted fertility. The unwanted fertility for
India as a whole was 30% of actual or total
fertility recoded by the NFHS-3. It means around 218 million persons of the
total population in the young age group 0-35 years in India were the product of
unwanted childbearing in 2005-06. Unwanted fertility is highest among those
whose levels of education and income are lowest. The level of unwanted
fertility in India has increased significantly from 22% in 1992-93 to 30% in
2005-06, indicating decreasing control over reproductive process.[4]
Not all unwanted
births become unwanted children. Many, perhaps most, are eventually accepted
and loved indistinguishably from earlier births that were deliberately planned.
But many are not; and the costs to them, to their siblings and parents, and to
society at urge are considerable, though not easy to measure. The costs are not
only financial. The social, health, and psychological costs must be enormous,
as noted by the Rockefeller Commission on Population and the American Future.[5] As a result, the consequences of unwanted
fertility are serious, slowing down the process of socio-economic development.
It is because unwanted childbearing results in poor physical growth, reduced
school performance, diminished
concentration in daily tasks thus impacting work capacity and work
output resulting in diminished earning capacity. The impact of this is
reflected in widespread malnutrition, poverty, unemployment and weak governance.[6] And all these contribute to distressingly high
and unacceptable level of crime, and in fact, that is happening in India in
recent years.
There are several
reasons behind unwanted childbearing, but most important one is related to the
imperfect control over the reproductive process. So letting women have the means to manage
their childbearing will help to make India a more stable and equal place as
well as less prone to crime. Key to this approach should be to provide quality
reproductive health services with contraceptive choices. When women have access
to contraception appropriate to their needs, desires, and budgets, the
potential benefits are many, including reduced maternal and child mortality as
well as lesser number of abortions and unwanted pregnancies. In addition to its
health benefits, family planning allows families and communities to invest more
in education and health care and helps reduce poverty as well as crimes.
Children by choice not by chance could be another effective way to reduce
incidence crimes especially against women.
In early sixties,
the United Stares of America adopted the similar strategy to reduce the
incidence of crimes. A book that has had a large and rapid sale, Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything by the University
of Chicago economist Steven Levitt and New York Times journalist Stephen J.
Dubner, establishes the effect of legalized abortion on crime.[7]
They argue that since children who are unwanted or whose parents cannot care
for them well are more likely to become criminals and that an inverse
correlation is observed between the availability of abortion and subsequent
crime. Moreover, children born under these conditions are usually less
fortunate. It is argued and proved that
the legalization of abortion in
the United States of America, largely due to the Supreme Court's decision in Roe v. Wade, , has reduced crime in
the late 20th and early 21st centuries. Also, the 1972 Rockefeller
Commission on Population and the American Future is one of the better known
early versions of this claim. The Commission cited research stating that the
children of women denied an abortion “turned out to have been registered more
often with psychiatric services, engaged in more antisocial and criminal
behavior, and have been more dependent on public assistance”. Opponents generally reject these statistics and
observations, and argue that abortion has negative effects on society or
decrease in crime is brought about in other ways.[8]
We, therefore, strongly
believe that all couples in India, regardless of age, or income, should be
enabled to avoid unwanted births. Major efforts should be made to enlarge and
improve the opportunity for individuals to control their own fertility, aiming
toward the development of a basic ethical principle that only wanted children
are brought into the world. In other
words, we recommend a national policy and voluntary
program to reduce unwanted fertility, to improve the outcome of pregnancy, and
to improve the health of children. So our
immediate agenda must be to revamp the family planning programme.[9]
In addition, more
money needs to be poured into quality education and towards creating more
opportunities for the poor and the young.[10]
[1] Refer: “Population Trends and Crime:
What should we be planning for?” Fact Sheet 13, July 1999, a publication of the John
Howard Society of Ontario.
[3] For details, see: James J. Nolan. “Establishing the statistical relationship
between population size and UCR crime rate: Its impact and implications”. Journal of Criminal Justice 32 (2004) 547 – 555.
[4] Kothari Devendra.
2011. Implications of Emerging Demographic Scenario: Based on the Provisional
Results of Census of India 2011, A Brief, a publication of Management Institute
of Population and Development, Parivar Seva Sanstha, New Delhi. Also see:
Kothari, Devendra. 2013. “Managing unwanted fertility in India: Way
forward”, a paper
is prepared for the National Conference on National Rural Health Mission: A
Review of Past Performance and Future Directions, organized by the Institute of
Economic Growth, New Delhi , August 6-8, 2013.
[5] As observed by the Rockefeller Commission on
Population and the American Future. Refer at:http://www.population-security.org/rockefeller/011_human_reproduction.htm.
[6] Kothari Devendra.
2012. “Empowering Women in India through better Reproductive Healthcare”, in
Sheel Sharma and Angella Atwaru Ateri (eds.) Empowering Women through Better
HealthCare and Nutrition in Developing Countries, New Delhi: Regency
Publications.
[7] Refer: Steven Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner. 2005.
Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything, William
Morrow.
[8] For details, refer: “Abortion and Crime: Unwanted Children and
Out-of-Wedlock Births”, by John R. Lott Jr.and John E. Whitley Yale Law & Economics Research Paper No. 254, 2001.
[9] Kothari Devendra
and Sudha Tewari. 2009. Slowing Population Growth in India: Challenges,
Opportunities and the Way Forward. MIPD Policy Brief No. 2, Management
Institute of Population and Development, (Parivar Seva Sanstha, New Delhi).
[10] Refer post by author:
School education in India needs intensive care, not a quick fix at: http://kotharionindia.blogspot.in/2013/12/education-in-india-needs-intensive-care.html.
