Devendra Kothari PhD
Population and Development Analyst
Forum for Population Action, Jaipur
The Modi Government is empowered to realize its election promise
– “Acchhe din aane wale hain” (better
days to come) but now it must hit the ground running.
India is a great success
story of economic growth and poverty decline, but it remains the home of global
poverty as well as illiteracy, and half of its children are profoundly
malnourished. This paradox of poverty and plenty poses one of the great
intellectual and moral challenges of the day. The Indian model of development
has so far worked poorly in promoting inclusiveness. Though India’s
democracy is increasingly becoming more inclusive (even a
Chaiwala, who prepare and
sell Indian tea on streets, can aspire to become Prime Minister), its social system
is growing increasingly exclusive. It appears India has not given due
recognition to the concept of equality in sharing the resources in its
development agenda. Even today, after more than twenty years of economic
reforms, the visitor to India - whether from developed or developing world - is
struck by the gross inequalities. Implementing the right set of policies to propel the equality
at greater speed will have to be the foremost priority of the new government.
The Modi government has to acknowledge this, and initiate program, which
focuses on inclusiveness alongside growth. The post aims as how to achieve
inclusive growth, which is the main objective of the 12th Five Year Plan (2012-17).
Emerging
scenario:
Socio-economic
policy has lost direction on account of false choices presented in a growth
versus welfare approach. They are not substitutes for each other. People will
choose better living conditions over subsidy because it provides the best
vehicle for personal advancement or human development. That may be reason why
Indian voters have given a decisive mandate and put their faith in inclusive
development and governance. All the human development indicators
show that country has had a terrible experience in the last ten years. In
fact, things are going from bad to worse. The Human Development Index (HDI), an easy-to-understand equality measure,
is made up of what most people believe the very basic ingredients of equality
or well-being: health, education, and income. HDI ranks
countries from top to bottom on the level of human development. India’s rank has
fallen from 128 in 2003 to 136 out of 187 countries and territories in 2013. Further, India still has quite long way to go in bridging
the gender gap in the areas of health, education and economics, if not
politics. It has been ranked 101 among 136 countries in The Global Gender Gap
Report 2013 released by the World Economic Forum. Also, the country has
fallen from 96th rank in 2006 to 101 in the last 8 years, revealing
a stark and deep rooted gender gap in India.
In addition, recent studies paint a grim picture of education, posing the risk
of eroding the long-term competitiveness of World’s third largest economy.
Today, more children are going to school but what they are learning is not
clear. This is alarming and pathetic. Lastly, a recent
report of OECD reported that India’s income inequality doubled in the two
decades to 2011.
The
way forward:
So what need to be done to unlock India’s
potential? In other words, what should be agenda for inclusive
development? No doubt, putting the economy back on track
and reducing inflation should be the new government’s first priority, however,
for inclusive growth and sustainable development it is equally important to
focus on human development. And it is a prerequisite to achieve inclusive growth. It is argued that
the country's main problems lie in the lack of attention paid to the essential
needs of the people, which are must for the human development. Central to the human development approach is the concept of
capabilities. Basic capabilities valued by virtually everyone include: good
health, access to knowledge, and a decent material standard of living. The
young demographic profile of the country also favors this agenda. Here are five areas towards which the New Government’s
efforts should be focused.
· First, no doubt, provision of universal healthcare is an essential
requirement for a speedy human development. So it is justifiably argued by Prof.
Dipankar Gupta that: “Get Well First, Get Wealthy next”. However, stabilizing
population is an essential requirement for promoting sustainable health as well as
development.
While India's population growth rate has been declining over the years, the
overall population will continue to grow as 51% of the population is in the
reproductive age group (15-49). Millions more will join this cohort each
year. At current levels, it may take
several decades more to stabilize the population. Although
India has adopted several impressive goals to reduce its population growth
rates, the country has a long way to go to achieve meaningful population
controls with a growth rate of 1.6%, representing a ‘doubling time ‘of less than 44 years. Health will be wealth only if nation manages its population
growth.
one has to recognize that population is an important factor in development, especially when it is growing seemingly out of control since it leads to a significant diversion of national investable resources to consumption which could otherwise be used for increasing investment and productivity and for improving the quality of public social services such as education, health, sanitation, provision of safe drinking water and for control of environmental degradation. India’s population has grown from 846 million in 1991 to 1210 million in 2011- that is by 364 million in the last twenty years, and is still growing by around 17 to 18 million every year. India’s population is projected to peak at 1700 million in 2060. Current population growth is mainly fuelled by unwanted fertility. More than four in ten pregnancies are unintended/unplanned or simply unwanted by the women who experience them and half or more of these pregnancies result in births that spur continued population growth.
one has to recognize that population is an important factor in development, especially when it is growing seemingly out of control since it leads to a significant diversion of national investable resources to consumption which could otherwise be used for increasing investment and productivity and for improving the quality of public social services such as education, health, sanitation, provision of safe drinking water and for control of environmental degradation. India’s population has grown from 846 million in 1991 to 1210 million in 2011- that is by 364 million in the last twenty years, and is still growing by around 17 to 18 million every year. India’s population is projected to peak at 1700 million in 2060. Current population growth is mainly fuelled by unwanted fertility. More than four in ten pregnancies are unintended/unplanned or simply unwanted by the women who experience them and half or more of these pregnancies result in births that spur continued population growth.
Today 26.5 million
babies are born each year and out of this about 6 million births could
be classified as unwanted. It is estimated that around 450 million people out
of 1200 million in 2011 in India who were result of unwanted pregnancies and
most of them are from the lower economic strata.[1]
The consequences of unintended pregnancy are serious, slowing down the process
of socio-economic development as well as process of change, and is being
reflected in widespread hunger, poor health poverty, under educated labour force,
unemployment, regressing governance as
well as increasing scarcity of basic resources like food, water and space
despite concerted developmental efforts since 1991.[2]
There may be
several reasons behind unwanted childbearing, but most important one is related
to the imperfect control over the reproductive process. So letting women have the means to manage
their childbearing will help to make India a more stable and equal place. When
women have access to contraception appropriate to their needs, desires, and
budgets, the potential benefits are many, including reduced maternal and child
mortality as well as lesser number of abortions and unwanted pregnancies. In
addition to its health benefits, family planning allows families and
communities to invest more in education and health care and helps reduce
poverty, as argued by the President of Population Council, Peter J. Donaldson.
Children by choice
not by chance are the only way poor can aspire a better life and good health.
For this, direct efforts aimed at decreasing the
rate of natural increase of population should be intensified through greater
access to suitable voluntary reproductive health services, information, and
education and of acceptable methods of family regulations. Also, fertility
reduction efforts, beyond family planning, should become an integral part of
the planning for human development, and should aim at improving quality of life
of the family and the status of women.[3]
·
Second, another issue which needs equal attention is quality of
education. It is fashionable now to talk
of India’s demographic dividend. By 2030, India will be the youngest big nation
in the world, with an average age of 29. Can
India take advantage of this demographic window in the next couple of decades
and garner its benefits? Unprecedented
thrust on education and skill development is the only way to do justice to
the politics of aspiration.
·
Third, physical living
conditions are equally important in producing an enabling environment for
quality of life or human development. Only 47% of households have a source of water within the
premises while 53% of households travel more than a kilometre in rural areas
and more than 100 meters in urban areas to fetch their supplies, as per the
findings of Census 2011. This problem
is further compounded by lack of access to sanitation. About half of total
households in India still defecate in open. This
situation is particularly piquant for women and girls. It is estimated that around 290 million women
in India in 2011, the worst sufferers of open defecation, continue with the
age-old practice even after 20 years of economic reforms. Any improvement in access to toilet facilities, water,
electricity and LPG is likely to result in a considerable reduction in domestic
drudgery especially for girls/women, freeing up their time for other activities
including schooling and perusing professional life.
·
Fourth,
India
is simply not doing enough for its women to improve access to resources and
freedom of movement as well as improving decision making power. To deal with a
problem that has roots in social behavior and prejudice, mere legislation is
not enough. One has to create an environment where sons and daughters are
equally valued.
For this,
women must have access to education and training along with economic empowerment
through property rights, etc.[4]
·
Lastly, since non-agricultural sectors will drive most of
India’s future growth, this growth will mainly show up in the development of
cities and towns. The
level of urbanization in India, unlike the experience of several Asia’s miracle
economies, has been quite low. It increased sluggishly from 17.3% in 1951 to
31.2% in 2011. As such, India has to invest
heavily in manufacturing and service sectors, which encouraged farmers/rural people to move
to more productive jobs in urban centres. So far, India has encouraged rural people to stay home by subsidizing rural incomes through programs like: NAREGA (National Rural Employment Guarantee Act), Food
Security Bill, etc.
In conclusion, there is an important lesson one can learn from
history. When Asia’s miracle economies thought about inclusive and sustainable
development, they invested heavily in human development. It
is high time that political parties focus on improving people’s ability to earn
more rather than dolling out subsidies that make people dependent on the
political class and system. The
immediate vision of India’s development planning must, therefore, ensure
broad-based improvement in the quality of life of the people, especially those
belonging to the bottom of pyramid. The above noted action areas are much effective interventions in achieving inclusive
growth, and India must think about. This does
not require too much by way of resources, but reorientation of the priorities. India
spends considerable resources on subsidies and freebies which could be used for the human development. To
make India relevant again, the Modi government has no time to lose.
[1] Kothari, Devendra.
2011. “Implications of Emerging Demographic Scenario: Based on the Provisional
Results of Census of India 2011”, A Brief, a publication of Management Institute of
Population and Development – A Unit of Parivar Seva Sanstha, New Delhi.
[2]
Kothari,
Devendra. 2014. “Managing Unwanted Fertility in
India: Way Forward”,
In Institute of Economic Growth (ed.): National
Rural Health Mission: Achievement and Challenges, New Delhi: Book Well (to be
published in July, 2014), pp 68-86.
.
.
[3] Kothari, Devendra.
2012. “Empowering Women in India through better Reproductive Healthcare”, in
Sheel Sharma and Angella Atwaru Ateri (eds.) Empowering Women through Better HealthCare and Nutrition in Developing
Countries, New Delhi: Regency Publications.
