Dr. Devendra
Kothari
Population and
Development Analyst
Forum for
Population Action
For far too long,
India has been a chronic under-achiever relative to potential. Economic growth
is not enough; it
must be accompanied by structural transformation to unlock the human potential.
Happy New Year to all!
Prime Minister Modi shared certain ‘dreams/visions' in
2014. 2015 is the year for deliverance of the same. No doubt, PM Modi
is moving forward with his plans to put the stalled economy back into top gear. According to the latest report of the
International Monetary Fund that Asia's
third-largest economy is showing signs of clawing out of sub-5 per cent growth
recorded in the last two years, and that the raft of measures that the Modi
government has announced has raised hopes that the government will be able to
engineer a quick turnaround. The government has vowed to remove red tape and
ease rules, and pledged a non-adversarial governance regime to push investors
to make India a manufacturing hub through initiatives such as `Make in India’. Indeed, such relatively straightforward steps could make a powerful
difference, raising the Indian growth rate by two or even three percentage
points from its current 4-5% but will not create an environment for sustained economic growth, which is needed to solve all the problems of India. Also, for this, one
needs a game plan, which should not be lost sight of.
India has enjoyed high but vacillating
economic growth in the post-liberation period, although it is at a crossroads. We have the largest number of hungry,
malnourished, illiterate and under educated people in the world. Moreover,
the current pool of labour force has very low employability. The National
Employability Report 2013 [1]
reveals that India generates more than five million graduates every year. A
significant proportion of them, nearly 47%, were found not employable in any
sector, given their poor English language and cognitive skills. The report also
revealed that among the six hundred thousand
engineers who graduated in 2011, only 17.4 per cent were employable. What this also
means is that the rest, that is, 82.6 per cent engineering graduates were
unemployable.
These are facts the Indian elite/policy makers
do not want to look at. ‘We just want to prove we have arrived at the world
stage’. It appears that, 63 years of planned economy has not been able to
resolve some basic issues, especially, those related to the development of
human resources. The Human Development Index (HDI) is
a summary measure of average achievement in key dimensions of human
development: a long and healthy life, being knowledgeable and having a decent
standard of living. It ranks countries in a
descending order into four tiers of human development.[2] India’s rank
in the Human Development Reports fell from 123rd in 2001 to 134th
in 2011 and 135th in 2014 out of 187 countries during the high economic growth period.
Understanding this “paradox" – high economic growth and low HDI values - is
crucial to the development of a coherent post-2014 agenda. The paradox arises from the failure of India
to achieve structural changes despite having grown vigorously as a result of
liberalization economic policies since 1991. It is interesting to recall that in the early fifties
the economy and living standard of people of China and India were almost at the
same level; in fact, India was little bit ahead of China. China sidetracked other
‘non-important’ issues and concentrated on improving the quality of human
resources and developing economy. Consequently, China is on the way to become a
super power of the world. Its cities are shining and economy is booming. People
are prosperous and relatively happy and their productivity is high (Table 1).
Table 1: A comparative statement – India and China
|
Indicator
|
India
|
China
|
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
|
Human Development Index,
2014 (Rank and Value)
|
135 (0.585)
|
91 (0.719)
|
|
Gross Domestic Product
(GDP)
|
10th
|
2nd
|
|
Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) per capita in US$, 2013
|
1,499
(148)
|
6,807
(84)
|
|
% of Population living
below International Poverty Line ($1.25
per day), 2009-11
|
33
|
13
|
|
% literates (age 15 and over
who can read and write), 2012
|
61
|
92
|
|
Life Expectancy at birth
(in years) , 2010
|
64
|
74
|
|
Number of
children per woman (TFR) 2010
|
2.7
|
1.6
|
|
Infant deaths/1000 births
(IMR) 2010
|
51
|
18
|
|
Maternal deaths/100000 live
births (MMR), 2013
|
190
|
32
|
|
Source:
UN Population Division, and World Bank
|
||
Productivity, a measure of
the efficiency of the human capital, can be measured by per capita Gross Domestic Product
(GDP). [3] In their recent book, Beyond 2020: A Vision for Tomorrow's India, A.P.J Abdul Kalam
and Y.S.Rajan analyzed this fact. [4] They write: “The GDP per capita standings are
the true indicators of how much India has been able to empower its citizens”.
Table 2 makes it clear how much progress India needs to make to be on a par
with Brazil, China and even Indonesia. India
has become the tenth largest economy in the world in terms of GDP; however, has
a very low per capita GDP. The country placed at the 148th position
among the 187 countries, as per the World Bank. This is perhaps the most
visible challenge. GDP per capita in
India averaged 462.43 US$ from 1960 until 2013, reaching an all time high of
1499 US$ in 2013 and a record low of 228 US$ in 1960. Table 2 shows that China’s GDP per capita value in 2013 was
more than four and half times that of India.
Table 2: Per capita GDP, selected
Countries, 2013
|
Country
|
World Rank
|
GDP per capita (In US$)
|
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
|
Monaco
|
1
|
163,036
|
|
Norway
|
4
|
100,819
|
|
USA
|
13
|
53,143
|
|
Germany
|
22
|
45,085
|
|
Japan
|
28
|
38,492
|
|
South Korea
|
33
|
25,977
|
|
Russia
|
51
|
14,612
|
|
Brazil
|
65
|
11,208
|
|
China
|
84
|
6,807
|
|
S. Africa
|
89
|
6,618
|
|
Indonesia
|
119
|
3,475
|
|
Sri Lanka
|
124
|
3,280
|
|
Vietnam
|
137
|
1,911
|
|
India
|
148
|
1,499
|
|
Pakistan
|
152
|
1,299
|
|
Nepal
|
170
|
694
|
|
Somalia
|
189
|
150
|
|
World
|
|
10,472
|
|
Source: World Bank National Account Data, 2013.
|
||
How to forge ahead:
So what need to be done to unlock India’s
potential? In other words, what should be agenda for human
development?
No doubt, putting the economy back on track and reducing inflation
should be the government’s first priority. However, for sustainable development
it is equally important to focus on human capital. Central to the human development approach is the concept of
capabilities. Basic capabilities valued by virtually everyone include: good
health, access to knowledge, and a decent material standard of living. The
young demographic profile of the country also favors this agenda. Of all the
Modi government’s popular initiatives in its first eight months in office are
directed towards this end. Among these, the Jan Dhan Yojana (the financial inclusion scheme); Swachh Bharat (the cleanliness drive); Digital India (promoting
e-governance); Beti Bachao Beti Padhao (Save girl child, educate girl child); and
Make
in India (transforming India into the manufacturing hub) have caught the nation's imagination. All these will allow
talent to grow. But we need a comprehensive agenda to raise human potential. In my
opinion, the agenda should rest on five pillars:
1. Reducing unwanted fertility: One has
to recognize that population is an important factor in development, especially
when it is growing seemingly out of control, since it leads to a significant
diversion of national investable resources to consumption which could otherwise
be used for increasing investment and productivity and for improving the
quality of public social services, such as education, health, sanitation,
provision of safe drinking water and for control of environmental degradation.
India’s population has grown from
846 million in 1991 to 1210 million in 2011- that is by 364 million in
the last twenty years, and is still growing by around 17 to 18
million every year. Current population growth
is mainly fuelled by unwanted fertility. More than four in ten pregnancies are
unintended/unplanned or simply unwanted by the women who experience them and
half or more of these pregnancies result in births that spur continued
population growth. Today 26.5 million babies are born
each year and out
of this about 6 million births could be classified as unwanted or unplanned. It
is estimated that around 450 million people out of 1200 million in 2011 in
India who were the result of unwanted pregnancies.[5]
The consequences of unintended
pregnancy are serious, slowing down the process of socio-economic development
as well as process of change, and is being reflected in widespread hunger, poor
health, poverty, illiteracy, unemployment, regressing governance as well
as increasing scarcity of basic resources like food, water and space despite
concerted developmental efforts since 1991. And all these have adverse impact
on the process of human development. So letting women have the means to manage
their childbearing will help to make India a more stable and equal place. It is
because when women (or couples) have
access to contraception appropriate to their needs, desires, and budgets, the
potential benefits are many, including reduced maternal and child mortality as
well as lesser number of abortions and unwanted pregnancies. In addition to its
health benefits, family planning allows families and communities to invest more
in education and health care and helps reduce poverty, as argued by the
President of Population Council, Peter J. Donaldson.
Over the last few months, there has
been a steady stream of outlandish statements advocating that every Hindu
couple needed to produce four children (the number has now gone up to ten).
What is the chance that these declarations of intent will get picked up and
adopted by a significant number of Hindu women? In the last two decades, the
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) that is the number of children that would be born to
a woman has gone down from 4.5 children in 1991 to 2.4 in 2011, as per the
Sample Registration System. Similarly,
the number of children per Hindu woman has gone down from 3.3 children in
1992-93 to 2.6 in 2005-06, as per the National Family Health Surveys. No doubt,
Muslims have higher fertility than any other religious group. The Hindu-Muslim fertility differentials,
however, declined from 1.1 children per woman in 1992-93 (NFHS-1) to less than
0.5 children in 2005-06 (NFHS-3). It is interesting to note that the rate of
decline in total fertility rate is faster among Muslims than Hindus. Looking to
these facts, a question arises: How many families will take to active
reproduction on a war footing to please their so-called religious/community
leaders?
In the
changed situation, most women, Hindu or Muslim, do not want more children. Around 20 million
currently married women in the reproductive ages, mostly in poor performing
States of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Utter Pradesh, seek to postpone
childbearing, space births, or stop having children, but are not using a modern
method of contraception. Often, these
women travel far from their communities to reach a government health facility,
only to return home “empty handed” due to shortages, stock outs, lack of
choices and/or non-availability of doctors and paramedical staff. When women
are thus turned away, they are unable to protect themselves from unintended/unplanned pregnancies or simply unwanted fertility.
As such, a child by choice not by
chance is the only way the poor can aspire to have a better life and good
health: most important ingredients unlocking the human potential. For this, efforts should be intensified through greater access
to suitable voluntary reproductive health services, information, education, and
acceptable methods of family regulations.
2. Ensuring
quality education: According to the latest Annual Status of Education
Report (ASER) 2014, around half of our school students, after spending six
years in school, cannot read basic sentences or perform simple arithmetic. Unless education is
rescued from the quagmire of mediocrity, all talk about realizing India’s
demographic dividend will be without substance; and the country would be
inching closer to socio-economic disaster. If India is to meet the more ambitious
development goals in a more challenging external environment, the post-2014
agenda needs to focus on ensuring a structural transformation of education
system. That will enable labour to shift towards higher value-added sectors and
more knowledge-intensive activities, thereby improving labour productivity
relative to other developing countries. It is argued that the enjoyment of the
right to education could be enhanced if there is an acknowledgement of the
problems that beset our educational system and if there is a willingness to
solve such problems. [6] In other words, the
government must focus on quality education, infrastructure rather than
attempting to introduce controversial issues in the education system.
3. Improving living conditions: Better living conditions are equally needed to
create enabling environment for human development. Only 47% of households have a source of water
within the premises while 53% of households travel more than a kilometre in
rural areas and more than 100 meters in urban areas to fetch their supplies, as
per the findings of Census 2011. This problem is further compounded by lack of
access to sanitation. About half of the total households in India still
defecate in the open. This situation is particularly piquant for women and
girls. It is estimated that around 290 million women in India in 2011,
the worst sufferers of open defecation, continue with the age-old practice even
after 20 years of economic reforms. Any improvement in access to toilet
facilities, water, electricity and LPG is likely to result in a considerable
reduction in domestic drudgery, especially for girls/women, freeing up their
time for other activities including schooling and perusing professional life.
We must focus on improving sanitation facilities in rural and urban areas.
4. Reducing
gender gap: India is simply not doing enough for its
women to improve access to resources and freedom of movement as well as improving
decision-making power. To deal with a problem that has roots in social
behavior and prejudice, mere legislation is not enough. One has to create an
environment where sons and daughters are equally valued. For this, women must have access to education and training
along with economic empowerment through property rights and paid employment
opportunities. [7]
5. Shifting labour to urban
areas: Since non-agricultural sectors will drive most of India’s future growth,
this growth will mainly show up in the development of cities and towns. The
level of urbanization in India, unlike the experience of several Asia’s miracle
economies, has been quite low. It increased sluggishly from 17.3 per cent in
1951 to 31.2 per cent in 2011. As such, India
has to invest heavily in manufacturing and service sectors, which will encourage
farmers/rural people to move to more productive jobs in urban centres,
especially to new or smaller cities. So far, India has encouraged rural people
to stay home by subsidizing rural incomes through programs like NAREGA (National Rural Employment Guarantee Act) and Food Security Bill.
In short, foregoing
discussion argues that India
is trapped in a vicious circle of economic and human underdevelopment. Sustainable but inclusive
economic progress depends on reversing this process in order to unleash an
upward spiral of economic and human development by harnessing the synergies
between the two. The main
concern today is the impairment of human potential, which is not allowing India
to reap its rich demographic dividend. It is high time that political
parties focused on improving people’s ability to earn more rather than dolling
out subsidies that make people dependent on the political class and
system.
The above
noted action areas are much effective
interventions in creating an enabling environment, which allows
talent to grow. This
does not require much by way of resources; it needs reorientation of the
priorities. Recently
created NITI Aayog (National Institution for Transforming India Aayog),
a policy think-tank of the Government of India that
replaces Planning Commission of India,
may be asked to prepare a comprehensive approach aiming at overarching
solutions to unlock human potential. To make India
relevant again, the Modi government has no time to lose.
[2] The HDI combines three dimensions: A long and healthy life: Life expectancy
at birth; Knowledge and education, as measured
by the adult literacy rate;
and a decent standard of living, as
indicated by gross domestic product per capita at purchasing power parity.
[3] The measure is
especially useful when comparing one country to another because it shows the
relative performance of the countries. A rise in per capita GDP signals growth
in the economy and tends to translate as an increase in productivity.
[4] A.P.J Abdul Kalam and Y.S.Rajan. 2014. Beyond 2020: A Vision for Tomorrow's India, Viking, New Delhi.
[5] Kothari, Devendra.
2014. “Managing Unwanted Fertility in India: Way Forward”, Institute of
Economic Growth (ed.): National
Rural Health Mission: An Unfinished Agenda, New Delhi: Book Well, pp.25-36.
