Dr. Devendra
Kothari
Population and
Development Analyst
Forum for Population
Action
Happy World Population
Day 2016
From Adam Smith onward, economists have recognized important linkages
between population and socio-economic development. Yet, the attention given to
these linkages in current development thinking in India is not very clear. This
is because one can argue that it is not rapid population growth but rather weak
government, corruption and social injustices that are preventing economic and
social development. The counter argument is that rapid population growth
exacerbates the problems of governance, corruption and social injustice.
However, one has to recognize that population is an important factor in development,
especially when it is growing seemingly out of control since it leads to a
significant diversion of national investable resources to consumption which
could otherwise be used for increasing investment and productivity and for
improving the quality of public services such as education, health, sanitation,
provision of safe drinking water, etc.
With 1.27 billion or 127 crore people and still
growing, India is getting dangerously overcrowded. India is currently the second most populous nation in the world.
It will surpass China as the most populous within 3-4 years. Many Indians including policy makers see these emerging demographics as
a critical advantage in competition with China. With around
70% of the population under 35, India can afford to dream to become economic
power in the world before the middle of this century. However
underneath, this rosy outlook for India epitomizing the country’s ability to
surpass China on the back of a younger population lays some difficulties,
especially deteriorating level of education. It
is not enough to have lots of young people — these young people need to be
properly educated to fully contribute to the economy. Today, more
children are going to school but what they are learning is not clear.
How to mange unwanted fertility? A popularly held belief by
India’s policy makers is that as a country becomes economically more
prosperous, its fertility declines significantly and leads to a stable
population. However, this is a simplistic view of a complex phenomenon. Since the introduction of market-based
economic reforms in 1991, India has become one of the fasted growing major
economies in the world. The reforms completed 20 years in July 2011, however,
during this period, India’s population increased by 365 million, much more than
the population of USA - the third most populous country in the world. This raises the question: Is Development the Best
Contraceptive or Are Contraceptives?
It is argued that there is a need to go beyond the prevailing notion
that socio-economic development is an essential precondition for fertility transition,
since it provided only a partial explanation for the monumental changes taking
place in fertility behavior, especially in low-income economies like Bangladesh.
More than four in ten pregnancies are unintended by the
women who experience them, and half or more of these pregnancies result in
births that spur continued population growth. In
addition,
it is estimated that currently there are around 460 million people out of 1270
million in India who are product of unintended/unplanned pregnancies, and most
of them are from the lower economic strata. The consequences of unwanted
fertility are serious, slowing down the process of socio-economic development. While
India’s population continues to grow by 17-18 million people annually, 15
million married women in the reproductive ages, mostly in the Four Large North
Indian (FLNI) States of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh,
seek to postpone childbearing, space births, or stop having children, but are
not using a modern method of contraception that is having unmet need for family
planning services. Often, these women
travel far from their communities to reach a government health facility, only
to return home “empty handed” due to shortages, stock outs, lack of
choices and/or non availability of doctors and paramedical staff. When women
are thus turned away, they are unable to protect themselves from unwanted
pregnancies. Approximately two-thirds of such
pregnancies resulted from non-use of contraceptives; clearly indicating the
need for easy availability of quality family planning services. The program has
largely failed to encourage the use of reversible methods, particularly among
young women (15-25) who are in the most fertile years of their reproductive
period. In addition, around one-third of unintended pregnancies resulted from
the ineffective use of contraceptives, which suggests the need for improved
counseling and follow-up of couples that adopt a method. In other words, there is a tremendous need to revamp the family
planning program in India to provide services looking to the needs of clients.
Incidence of unintended frequencies can be dramatically
reduced, if not eliminated, within a decade by revamping family planning
program, as has been done in Andhra
Pradesh. If Andhra - with little
outside help - can manage its galloping population issue under relatively low
literacy and high poverty, there is no reason why FLNI States, with lesser
problems and with increasingly generous support from the Centre under National
Rural Health Mission (NRHM), should fail so spectacularly in managing unwanted
fertility. It appears that the
population and related issues have not been given due importance in the development
debate of India. Demography, therefore, in the next 10 years or so will pose
serious challenges to economic growth, democracy and national unity by its
sheer size. The writing is on wall. The question is not whether we act or not,
but whether we act now or later and deal with much more dire and expensive
consequences.
For further details, see: Kothari,
Devendra and Sudha Tewari. 2009. Slowing Population Growth in India:
Challenges, Opportunities and the Way Forward. MIPD Policy Brief No. 2,
Management Institute of Population and Development, (Parivar Seva Sanstha, New
Delhi). Also see Blog: kotharionindia.blogspot.com for articles on population
and development.
