Dr. Devendra K. Kothari
Population and Development Analyst
Forum for Population Action
The city has long been exiled from the
Indian imagination. The romance of the 'village republic' for India's
politicians and the strong association of urban India with the British raj
doomed the city in independent India.
Nandan Nilekani
Urbanization is the societal trend where the
proportion of people living in cities increases while the proportion of people
living in the country side diminishes. For the first time in history more than
half the world’s population resides in urban areas. The world’s urban
population now stands at 3.7 billion people, and this number is expected to
double by 2050. The coming decades will, therefore, bring further profound
changes to the size and spatial distribution of the global population.
Presently, the highest rates of economic growth are being witnessed in Asia,
especially in China and India, which today also have the largest rural
populations, but are urbanizing. Of the 10 most populous countries of the
world, 6 are in Asia and all these are witnessing high rates of the growth in
their urban population (Table 1).
Table 1: Level of urbanization among the 10 most populous
countries of the world
Country
|
Percent
of urban population to total
|
|||
1950
|
2000
|
2015
|
2050
|
|
China
|
12.5
|
35.8
|
55
|
76
|
India
|
17.3
|
29.0
|
33
|
50
|
USA
|
64.2
|
77.2
|
81
|
87
|
Brazil
|
36.5
|
81.2
|
85
|
91
|
Indonesia
|
12.4
|
41.
0
|
53
|
51
|
Nigeria
|
10.1
|
44.1
|
47
|
67
|
Pakistan
|
17.5
|
33.1
|
38
|
57
|
Mexico
|
42.7
|
74.4
|
79
|
86
|
Japan
|
50.3
|
78.8
|
93
|
98
|
Bangladesh
|
4.3
|
25.
0
|
34
|
56
|
World
|
30
|
47
|
54
|
85
|
United Nations. 1980. Patterns of Urban and Rural
Population Growth. Population Studies No. 68. United Nations. 2014. World Urbanization Prospects.
|
But, the picture of India is not very clear. In the last
century, which saw rapid urbanization across the globe, India did not face an
“urban explosion” as did many other regions of the world, especially in the
Americas and East Asia. Consistent with its low per capita income India ranks
among the last thirty in the list of countries listed according to their
urbanization levels. Out of the 10 most populous countries, India recorded the
lowest level of urbanization in 2015 (Table 1).
One can argue that the policy makers and some experts treat cities
in step motherly fashion believing that India continues to reside in its
villages. This overlooks the fact that today 440 million
people (2017) live in India’s cities towns. By 2030, this number will be 583
million and by 2050, 814 million. It means by the middle of
this century nearly half of India’s population will reside in urban areas . [1]
The trend towards urbanization is only accelerating.[2]
Also, projections, made by me, indicate that India would achieve ‘the tipping
point’ of 50 per cent urban before 2045. Thus, India is projected to be more
‘urban’ even before the next 20 years. In other words, the move towards urban
concentration is a fact, and as city life becomes a reality for an ever-greater
share of India’s population, governments, and civil society must recognize that
they are largely unequipped to deal with city-level problems. If not well
managed, this inevitable increase in India’s urban population will place
enormous stress on the system. India’s cities are now facing serious issues including
housing problems, waste disposal, and power shortage among others.
So, it is
unchangeable fact that the India of tomorrow will find expression in the
cities. What we can question and hence change is how that future will be lived.
It is time we start a new conversation. That means Indian cities
need to become more livable and productive. While the government’s proposed
smart cities project looks to ameliorate the situation, it would not make much
of a difference unless cities are actually empowered to chart their own
destinies. Most Indian cities today are reeling under problems of
infrastructure collapse because of lack of planning and poor management. The
underlying cause very clearly is absence of a robust local governance structure
and its accountability to public.
Is not it high time we build our future cities? The paper aims
in this direction. It is an attempt to understand, through secondary data and
analysis, where India stands today in terms of urban development, why it has
emerged the way it has and what should be done in next 5 to 10 years to make
urban living more livable and
productive.
In doing so, the following four posts’ discussion will help
the policy makers in taking forward the newly launched Missions, namely,
Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana, Smart Cities Mission, Swatch Bharat Mission and
Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation in a bid towards
building a vibrant and inclusive urban India.
The next post discusses Urbanization
an overview:
[1] Source: Worldometers (www.Worldometers.info). Also see: http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/india-population/
[2] Kundu (2011) gives
a useful account of the history of urbanization in India in the colonial and
post period. For derails see at:
https://www.uniassignment.com/essay-samples/economics/reasons-for-urban-concentration-in-india-economics-essay.php