Dr. Devendra Kothari
Population and Development Analyst
Forum for Population Action
Is emerging demography subverting India’s democracy?
Demography encompasses the study of the size, structure, and
distribution of population in terms of spatial or temporal changes in response
to natural increase (birth - death) and net-migration (in-migration -
out-migration). India is the seventh largest country by area and with more than
1.35 billion people; it is the second most populous country as well as the most
populous democracy in the world. The UN Population
Division expects that in the year 2030 India's population will surpass the
population of China. At that time, India is expected to have a population of
more than 1476 million while China’s population is forecast to be
at its peak of 1453 million and will begin to drop in subsequent years. Based
on the analysis of recent data, the author, however, came to the conclusion
that India will overtake China in the next 3-5 years that is before 2024.
During 1971–2011, the
population India has more than doubled. It increased from 548 million 1971 to
1210 million in 2011 – an increase of 662 million in forty years. While India’s
population growth rate has been declining over the years, the overall
population will continue to grow as more than 50 per cent of the population is
in the reproductive age group (15-49). India is expected to become the first
political entity in the history of mankind to be home to more than
1.5 billion people by 2031, and its population is set to reach
1.7 billion by 2051.[1]
There is a huge North-South divide
emerging in the demographic map of
India. Out of the total population increase of 662
million between 1971 and 2011, 254 million were added by the Four Large North
Indian (FLNI) States of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh,
nearly 39 percent of India’s demographic growth. In contrast, the contribution
of the Four South Indian (FSI) States of Andhra Pradesh (including Telangana),
Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu was to 117 million – 18 percent of the total
demographic growth of the country. Further, out of total expected population
increase of 312 million between 2011and 2031, 249 million will likely to be added
by the FLNI States that is nearly 80 percent of total expected increase. On the
other hand, only 26 million or 8 per cent of the total increase is anticipated
to occur in the FSI States.
This is
mainly due to the population stabilization efforts made by the FSI States as
compared to the FLNI states. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) which signifies the
average number of children per woman during her reproductive period should have
been 2.1 if goal for 2010 set out in the National Population Policy 2000 had
been achieved. The Four South Indian States and some other states have achieved
this on or before the 2010. We are a very long way from reaching that goal in
the FNI where about 40 per cent of the population lives. At the current rate of
decline, it will take many decades to achieve the TFR of 2.1 (Table 1). Special measures are vitally necessary to
reduce the fertility in these states.
Table 1 Trend in number of children per woman, selected states of India
State
|
Number of children per
woman (Total Fertility Rate)
|
|||
1981
|
2011
|
2016
|
2031-36*
|
|
Bihar
|
5.7
|
3.6
|
3.3
|
2.8
|
Madhya Pradesh
|
5.2
|
3.1
|
2.8
|
2.3
|
Rajasthan
|
5.2
|
3.0
|
2.7
|
2.5
|
Uttar Pradesh
|
5.8
|
3.4
|
3.1
|
2.6
|
INDIA
|
4.5
|
2.4
|
2.3
|
2.2
|
Andhra Pradesh
(including Telangana)
|
4.0
|
1.8
|
1.7
|
NA
|
Karnataka
|
3.6
|
1.9
|
1.8
|
NA
|
Kerala
|
2.8
|
1.8
|
1.8
|
NA
|
Tamil Nadu
|
3.4
|
1.7
|
1.6
|
NA
|
Based on data obtained from: Office of the Registrar General &
Census Commissioner, India . * Projected figures, The Future Population of
India, PFI, New Delhi and PRB, Washington DC.
|
||||
The
emerging demographic scenario has very serious consequences not only on
sustainable development both economic and social, but also on the functioning
of democracy. Democracy is a system of
government that allows the citizens to cast vote and elect a government of
their choice. India became a democratic state after its independence from
the British rule in
1947.
Voting is very important in a democratic nation because it provides people
an opportunity to voice their opinion and vote for what they believe in, it
holds elected officials accountable for their behavior while in office, and it
prevents a minority from dictating the policies of a majority. Every Indian citizen, above 18 years of age, can exercise the
right to vote in India. There is no discrimination based on a person’s caste,
creed, religion, gender or education when it comes to providing the right to
vote.
Article 81 of India’s Constitution
laid down that every state (and Union territory) will be allotted seats in
the Lok Sabha in such a manner that the ratio of population to seats
should be as equal as possible across states. The
Lok Sabha, the lower house of the Parliament of India, is made up of the
elected Members of Parliament (MPs). Each MP represents a single
geographic constituency. The maximum strength of the House
allotted by the Constitution of India is 552. The Constitution gave the provision to regulate the
number of representatives to the Lok Sabha. So it decreased the number of
representatives from 20 to 13 from Union Territories. So currently the strength of Lok Sabha is 545 (530
from States, 13 from Union Territories and 2 Anglo Indians to be nominated by
the President of India).
The 42nd amendment Act, adopted by
the Parliament in 1976, decreed that the population to be taken into
consideration for the next 25 years would be the number in the 1971 census. The
rationale was that family planning was a national imperative and states would
have little incentive to pursue it if success meant their share of political power
would go down. The freeze on reapportioning seats between states and UTs was
further extended by the 84th amendment Act in 2001 till 2026.
At the time of the apportioning of
seats based on the 1971 census, all big states had a Lok Sabha MP
representing roughly 1 million to about 1.05 million, hardly a huge disparity,
as shown in Table 2. With the seats having remained unchanged but population growth having varied widely, today (based on the projected 2021
mid-year population) the
average MP in Rajasthan would represent
over 3.3 million while the one in Tamil Nadu or Kerala represents less than 1.9
million (Table 2). In effect, therefore, the voter in Rajasthan has a lesser
say in who runs India than the one in Tamil Nadu. MPs from smaller states and
UTs, of course, represent even fewer people, but that has always been the case and is inevitable since even the tiniest UT cannot have less than one MP. The situation will further
deteriorate in the coming years, as population of Four Large North Indian
States jumps.
Table 2 Trend in average number
of persons per Lok Sabha seat by selected States
State
|
No. of
seats
|
Average Number of persons/Lok Sabha seat (in million)
|
||||
1971
|
2001
|
2011
|
2021*
|
2031*
|
||
Bihar
|
40
|
1.05
|
2.07
|
2.60
|
3.06
|
3.62
|
Madhya Pradesh
|
29
|
1.03
|
2.08
|
2.51
|
2.88
|
3.26
|
Rajasthan
|
25
|
1.03
|
2.26
|
2.74
|
3.33
|
3.88
|
Uttar Pradesh
|
80
|
1.05
|
2.08
|
2.50
|
3.05
|
3.55
|
INDIA
|
543
|
1.01
|
1.89
|
2.22
|
2.52
|
2.80
|
Andhra Pradesh (including Telangana)
|
42
|
1.03
|
1.80
|
20.2
|
2.14
|
2.32
|
Karnataka
|
28
|
1.05
|
1.88
|
2.18
|
2.34
|
2.50
|
Kerala
|
20
|
1.06
|
1.59
|
17.0
|
1.85
|
1.91
|
Tamil Nadu
|
39
|
1.05
|
1.59
|
16.5
|
1.81
|
1.87
|
Based on data obtained from: Census of India and Election Commission
of India. * Projected figures, The Future Population of India, PFI, New Delhi
and PRB, Washington DC.
|
||||||
This sort of unbalanced
or brainsick voting representation, as seen in the Rajasthan, has
created many distortions in the democracy. For example, the caste politics has
become an integral part of elections especially in the FLNI States. Political parties select their
candidates on the basis of caste composition in the constituency. The
voting in elections and mobilization of political support from top to
bottom moves on the caste lines. Political bargaining is also done on
the caste lines. In 1971, prospective MPs used to take help from other
castes to win the election; now due to increased population of their own castes,
they, generally, do not need support of other castes. And this is a regretful development in the
functioning of democracy in India in the
last couple of decades.
Further, there will be a huge North-South divide in
India’s democracy, if we do not redistribute the seats in Lok Sabha as per the
latest census figures. In that Case, the voice of the populous FLNI States is
less valued than that of the FSI States. Between them, the four southern states
of Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Kerala account for just 19 percent
of the estimated population in 2021, but get 129 or 24 per cent of Lok Sabha
seats (Table 3). On the other hand, the FLNI States of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan
and Uttar Pradesh, the most populous Hindi states, account for 39 percent of
the population, but get only 174 seats (32% of total seats). Kerala is smaller than
Jharkhand (35.4 million versus 37.3) and only slightly smaller than Assam
(34.6) in terms of population in 2018, but gets 20 Lok Sabha seats while
Jharkhand and Assam get a paltry 14 each.
Table 3 Emerging North-South Demographic & Democracy Divide
Item
|
India
|
Four North
Indian States
|
Four South
Indian States
|
||
Lok Sabha
Seats
|
|||||
seats
|
% of total
|
Seats
|
% of total
|
||
543
|
174
|
32.0
|
129
|
23.8
|
|
Total Population
|
|||||
Year
|
population (in
million
|
Population
( in million)
|
% of population
|
population
(in million)
|
% of total
population
|
1971
|
548.2
|
181.4
|
33.0
|
135.3
|
24.7
|
2011
|
1210.6
|
445.1
|
36.8
|
252.2
|
23.1
|
2021*
|
1370.1
|
533.2
|
38.9
|
265.8
|
19.4
|
2031*
|
1522.6
|
620.4
|
40.7
|
278.7
|
18.3
|
Based on data obtained from: Census of India and Election Commission of
India. * Projected figures, The Future Population of India, PFI, New Delhi
and PRB, Washington DC.
|
|||||
If the letter and spirit of the
original provision (Article 81 of the
constitution) were to be implemented
today, the composition of the Lok Sabha would change drastically with states
like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan
gaining significantly and Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh including Telangana,
Karnataka and Odessa losing out (Table 4). As per Times News Network, Uttar
Pradesh would have added 13 seats in the forthcoming General election and Tamil
Nadu lost ten.
Table 4 Current Lok Sabha seats and estimated Lok Sabha seats based on 2019
estimatred population, selected States
State
|
Current Lok Sabha
seats
|
Lok Sabha seats based on estimated population in
2019
|
2019 Gains/Loss
|
Uttar Pradesh
|
80
|
93
|
+13
|
Maharashtra
|
48
|
51
|
+3
|
West Bengal
|
42
|
40
|
-2
|
Andhra Pradesh & Telangana
|
42
|
37
|
-5
|
Bihar
|
40
|
44
|
+4
|
Tamil Nadu
|
39
|
29
|
-10
|
Madhya Pradesh
|
29
|
33
|
+4
|
Karnataka
|
28
|
26
|
-2
|
Gujarat
|
26
|
27
|
+1
|
Rajasthan
|
25
|
31
|
+6
|
Odessa
|
21
|
18
|
-3
|
Kerala
|
20
|
15
|
-5
|
Assam
|
14
|
14
|
-
|
Jharkhand
|
14
|
14
|
-
|
India
|
543
|
543
|
--
|
Source: Times
News Network at: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/68434603.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
|
|||
What are the chances that the one
man/woman one vote principle will see a comeback in 2026 as now
stipulated? “Don’t bet on it. The southern states and others like West Bengal and Odessa that
have been among the more successful in bringing down population growth
will – not without reason – cry foul at being victimized’ for their success. ” [2] We
might well see a repeat of 1976 and 2001 in coming years. But to satisfy the voters of the FLNI States, the Government of India may redistribute the Lok Sabha seats based on the forthcoming
Census of 2021, just like the present government did in case of the
15th Finance Commission in 2017. GOI has recommended the use of Census 2011
instead of the norm of considering Census 1971, and this change has led to
political protests and accusations of bias as many states that have done well
in controlling population will end up receiving less money from the Central Tax
pool. If government takes such step in
the redistribution of Lok Sabha seats, it may lead to
balkanization of India.
In place of taking such drastic steps, the Government of India must
strengthen family planning programme in the FLNI States. The people of these
and similar states are not against small family norms.[3] Simply building awareness will not achieve
tangible outcomes. While general knowledge about family planning is almost
universal, access to modern methods of contraception services and products is a
big problem in many states of north India. This has a direct impact on the
health of women who have to bear the consequences of repeated unwanted
pregnancies and unsafe abortions; also in giving birth to undernourished
children with poor chances of survival or proper human development. India must,
therefore, ensure that every child is a wanted one. Here, HDPlus
framework, as proposed by the author, could be of great utility in addressing the issue
of unwanted fertility. (For details, refer at: https://kotharionindia.blogspot.com/2019/01/future-of-india-is-now.html). The framework’s
focus is on the child and mother thus strengthening the Democracy in India. [4]
[1]
For details,
refer: The Future Population of India, PFI, New Delhi and PRB,
Washington DC, 2007.
[3] Kothari, Devendra. 2014b. “Managing Unwanted Fertility in India: Way Forward”, -- in Suresh
Sharma and William Joe. (eds.): National Rural Health Mission: An
Unfinished Agenda, Bookwell, New Delhi.
[4] For details,
see: Kothari, Devendra.
2019. Nurturing
Human Development: A Strategy for New India, New Delhi: Paragoan International
Publishers.
