Devendra
Kothari, Ph.D
Population and Development Analyst
Forum for Population Action
“Don’t
just jump into action just because people are taking action. Know and
understand the next real action and reaction that will follow the action before
you take any action.”
Ernest Agyemang Yeboah
African
thinker and author
The phrase “think before you do” encompasses much more than
basic brain processing and is typically used to refer to think about the
possible outcomes of a situation/decision and make the best choice about what
to do. When one thinks before acting he/she must begin with the end in mind.
Essentially, by thinking before acting, one plans what will happen next. Sure,
the future is unpredictable but considering the circumstances, one may be able
to make a fair guess about what action will give the most favorable results. Everyone
or every nation has had that moment when the wrong thing was said or done and
sets off a series of undesirable events. Unfortunately, India has been in such a situation many times.
Epidemiologic models show we need aggressive measures in the early
phase of pandemic and measures like lockdown buys us time. This post is a case study of an announcement
of the Total Lockdown to control the spread of corona virus. The decision to
impose a total lockdown was taken by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and it was
welcomed by all. It, however, raises questions about the processes of
decision-making in democratic India.
A Pneumonia of unknown cause detected in
Wuhan, China was first reported to the WHO (World
Health Organization) Country Office in China on 31
December 2019. The outbreak was declared a Public Health Emergency of
International Concern on 30 January 2020. On 11 February 2020, WHO announced a
name for the new corona virus disease: COVID-19? It is the product of natural evolution, according to findings
published in the in the journal Nature Medicine. However, it is difficult to say from where it came. It is said that it is a part
of the biological warfare and it might have come from the Wuhan lab.
As of April 7, 2020, nearly 1300,000 COVID-19 cases
have been documented in the world, although many more mild cases have likely
gone undiagnosed. The virus has killed over 36,400 people, as per the bulletin
of the WHO.
India reported its first three positive cases of
COVID-19 in Kerala on January 31, 2020, all of whom were medical students who
had returned from Wuhan - the epicenter of the disease outbreak. All these
three have successfully recovered from the infection on February 14, 2020. The
transmission, however, escalated in the month of March, after several cases
were reported all over the country, most of which were linked to people with a
travel history to affected countries. On 12 March, a 76-year-old man who had
returned from Saudi Arabia became the first victim of the virus in the country.
Confirmed cases crossed 100 on 15 March, 500 on 24 March, 1,000 on 28 March and
1,500 on 31 March.
So far no medicine or vaccine is available for its
treatment except isolation. India has been very proactive and taken the right
public health measures in terms of social distancing, and ensuring that the
chance of an infected person meeting a susceptible person goes down with such
interventions.
On 17 March, the GoI issued an advisory urging to
all Indian states to take social distancing measures as a preventive strategy.
On 22 March 2020, India observed a 14-hour voluntary public curfew or Janta
curfew at the insistence of the PM Modi. The response was great. Just after two days, on March 24, the prime
minister ordered a nationwide lockdown for 21 days, affecting the entire 1.38
billion population of India.
Why 21 days? There are a scientific basis and
epidemiological meaning for this number. Its calculations are based on the
incubation period of the virus in a human host. The first 14 days are observed
as the incubation period. The next 7 days are added for the residual infection
to die out. Public health experts also say this is the most effective way of preventing
the spread of the infection from those already infected into the
community. So, it was a decision based
on solid ground.
It is too early to evaluate the decision of total
lockdown since it was taken just seven days ago that is on March 24, 2020.
Further, I agree with the Health Ministry Joint Secretary Lav Aggarwal that
“this is not the time to do fault finding”. I wish to make it very clear that
‘social distancing’ is the only way to control the spread of the coronavirus at
this stage. However, for its better
implementation, we must raise and analyse the issues faced so far. Also, this
analysis may help to design an existing plan. This unprecedented
lockdown imposed at 00.00 hr on March 25, 2020, gave 1370 millions of Indians
less than four hours to prepare.[2]
In his address to the nation, he
said “Forget about leaving home for the next 21 days. If you cross the
threshold of your house, you will invite the virus home.” It has thrown much of
the country into chaos. Modi assured
Indians that essential services would continue, but was vague regarding how
people would be able to buy food and other necessary items. As a result, people
rushed to shops to stock up before the decree took effect.
No doubt, under lockdown, well-off
Indians isolated themselves in their houses, starting working from home, and
started receiving groceries at home. But outside their windows, it was a different
story. The lockdown has triggered a massive exodus of migrant laborers and
daily wage workers from cities back to the rural villages they are from—where
many won’t have to pay rent and food is cheaper. As a result, many people were
seen defying the lockdown. For example,
with their livelihoods coming to a sudden halt after imposition of the
countrywide lockdown on 25th March 2020, thousands of daily wage workers and
labourers thronged the Delhi-Uttar Pradesh border, just after two days, in the
hope of reaching their homes in far-flung areas, notwithstanding the threat of
the spread of the coronavirus disease. Hordes of people, including women and
children, with their bags on their heads and backs, waited in long queues to
board buses at the Anand Vihar Interstate Bus Terminal, Dehli. Such scenes were seen throughout the country.
But there was no transportation. It is because public transport, including
operation of private buses, taxis, auto-rickshaws, among others were suspended.
Also, the movement of inter-state buses/trains/metro was suspended.
Due to such uncontrollable Jan
sailab (uncontrolled crowd), the purpose of 'social distancing' was somewhat
defeated. “Mass congregations like this carry the risk of spreading COVID-19
even further, says Oommen C. Kurian, head of the health initiative at the
Observer Research Foundation, an independent think-tank based in New Delhi. He
worries that migrants might carry the virus to rural areas, where health
infrastructure is weak, or even non-existent.” [3]
Further, the governance was
busy in looking after the welfare of migrant workers, their food, and shelter.
As a result, in spite of the Home Ministry warning some 15 days ago the
Nizamuddin Police Station, Dehli, just located just 50 meters from the mosque, could not stop Markaz gathering of more than
4, 000 people. Most of these participants were from other countries, especially
from Indonesia and Bangladesh. And, the
Markaz became the major cause of corona spread not only in the capital of the
country but throughout the country. It was a total fault of the system failure,
which was asked to look after the welfare of the migrant workers in place of
maintaining law and order. And the country paid the heavy price of this action.
[4] PM Modi
later apologized for the hardships caused by the lockdown but said the measures
were necessary.
India is a federal country.
The total lockdown was a test of collaborative federalism, but India failed.
Although initiatives have been announced by the central and many state
governments to alleviate the suffering of the poor during the lockdown, this mass
migration shows that the efforts of the central and the state governments have
either not been orchestrated in sync or have not been implemented properly.
“Unfortunately, no sincere
and strategic coordination between the Union and state governments were made to
give full effect to the national lockdown and its possible implications on
people’s lives. An inter-state coordination meeting of all chief ministers and
Chief secretaries should have been called at an initial stage, ideally in the
first week of March, to make a strategic plan on various preventive measures,
including the national lockdown and its possible repercussions’, as noted by
the Professor Law Singh and his
colleague Nayak at the National Law University, Odisha.[5]
In conclusion, the government’s intentions to impose lockdown may have
been benevolent, but surely some thought should have been given by the top
policymakers to how this decision will impact the bulk of its supposed
beneficiaries. Could not special trains and even buses have been run to
transport migrant labour, students, tourists among others home, before the
lockdown?
The success of ‘Janata curfew’ demonstrated that people are willing to
abide by government advisories and especially the appeal made by the Prime
Minister. But a 21-day national lockdown on a four hours’ notice suddenly put
millions of people at risk, leaving many struggling with basic requirements of
food and medicines. They were left with a choice between the coronavirus
infection and starvation. Hunger is the more desperate, deadly, and immediate
of the two alternatives, and hence it prevailed. In the future, sufficient time
should be given before taking such decisions.
We'll do less damage, to ourselves and others, if we think before doing.
Henry Ford once said, “Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is probably
the reason so few engage in it.” His statement may be true and why it seems
that so many people don’t, but it really is not rocket science. If everyone
just put a little bit of effort into thinking about what to do, the world could
live in much more harmony, and the world would become a safer place to live.
The law of life of thinking before acting is something that can have
drastically different results. It can make us and the people that surround us
happy or when ignored can greatly upset us. Whether we choose to pay attention
to it or ignore it, this law of life can define who we are. So whenever you
want to do something, take a step back to really think and ask yourself: should
I, or should I not?
[2] It was a hasty decision taken in the PM Modi’s style
like his earlier proclamations. For example, he announced the Demonetization in
a live national televised address at 20:15 IST on November 16, 2016. He declared circulation of all ₹500 and
₹1,000 banknotes as invalid with effect from the midnight of the same day.
Initially, the move received support from people. The move was, however,
criticised as poorly planned and unfair.
[3] As quoted in Time’s article. Refer: Modi's Hasty Coronavirus Lockdown of India Leaves Many Fearful for What
Comes Next by Abhishyant Kidnangoor, TIME Magazine, March 31, 2020.
Read more at: https://time.com/5812394/india-coronavirus-lockdown-modi/
[4] Delhi’s Markaz Tablighi Jamaat at Hazrat Nizamuddin
has become India’s largest hotspot of Coronavirus - spreading it to at least seven states. At least three central
government departments were in the know of the event — including
intelligence branches, the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) and the Ministry of
External Affairs (MEA).
Within Delhi, the Hazrat Nizamuddin Police Station is located right next to the Markaz mosque. It’s unlikely that the authorities were unaware of the situation developing right in their neighborhood. Read more at:https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/nizamuddin-coronavirus-hotspot-everyone-who-knew-about-the-religious-gathering-at-delhis-markaz-tablighi-jamaat/articleshow/74930784.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
[5] Refer article: Coronavirus: Test of collaborative
federalism by Singh, YP and Ashirbad, Nayak at:
https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/comment/coronavirus-test-of-collaborative-federalism-819841.html
