Dr. Devendra Kothari
Population and Development Analyst
Forum for Population Action
“For India, the Fourth Industrial Revolution brings tremendous opportunities to leapfrog many stages of development, hastening its journey towards becoming a developed economy.”
Pranjal Sharma Kranti Nation: India and The Fourth Industrial Revolution
The world stands on the brink of a technological revolution known as the Fourth Industrial Revolution (FIR) that will fundamentally alter the way we live, work, and relate to one another. In its scale, scope, and complexity, the transformation will be unlike anything humankind has experienced before, as per the World Economic Forum (WEF).
The First Industrial Revolution used water and steam power to mechanize production. The Second used electric power to create mass production. The Third used electronics and information technology to automate production. Now a Fourth Industrial Revolution is building on the Third, the digital revolution that has been occurring since the middle of the last century. It is characterized by “a fusion of technologies that is blurring the lines between the physical, digital, and biological spheres,” as per Klaus Martin Schwab the founder and executive chairman of the World Economic Forum. [1]
When
compared with previous industrial revolutions, the Fourth is evolving at an
exponential rather than a linear pace. Moreover, it is ‘interrupting’ almost
every industry in every country. And the breadth and depth of these changes
herald the transformation of entire systems of production, management, and
governance. As AI and robots become
more sophisticated they will increasingly replace humans at their jobs. There
are several projections for job losses owing to factors such as automation and
consolidation in the market. As per the one estimate one in four job losses in
India will happen on account of automation. And that has already started.
In many ways, companies in India are ensuring their survival by adopting new technologies. “Those who adopt faster and better will be more competitive than others, and definitely in a better position to compete with global entrants. Their survival comes at the cost of jobs. But these can be countered by rescaling, and by creating new opportunities.” [2]
Is India ready to follow the dictates of the Fourth Industrial Revolution? India doesn’t lack talent or entrepreneurship but it lacks an ecosystem. Work in science and innovation is relatively abysmal because there's been a legacy of poor policy to develop scientific temper. Moreover, a series of sensational claims, including that ancient Hindu sages were the pioneers of aviation, internet, plastic surgery and algebra, have triggered a furious debate in Indian academic circles amid warnings that nationalist breast-beating could undermine the country’s burgeoning scientific reputation. Also, it may spread andhvishwas/superstition thus harming the development of scientific temper.
The Fourth Industrial Revolution is based on digital technology involving AI, 3D-printing, advanced robotics and neuroscience. The state of the internet in India, however, is very poor. Some estimates say that less than half of India’s 1400 million people have internet access. But without reliable connectivity the use of the internet is very limited and irritating. It means the digital technology in India faces many challenges. Some of these challenges are: 1. the daily internet speed, as well as the Wi-Fi hotspots, are slow as compared to other developed countries, 2. most of the small and medium scale industry has to struggle a lot to adapt to the new modern technology; 3. limited capability of entry-level smart phones for smooth internet access, 4. lack of skilled manpower in the field of digital technology, and 5. growing menace of digital crime.
But the future of the Fourth Industrial Revolution depends upon availability of reliable and universal internet. As we expand internet infrastructure, including in public institutions such as schools, the data also alerts us to the need for finding ways to ensure that existing inequalities do not get multiplied in the process. The state of Bihar is the worst performer in this metric, with only 43.6 per cent of men ever having used the internet, but at 20.6 per cent women are much further behind. In the more prosperous Karnataka state, home of India’s IT capital – Bangalore, with only 62.4 per cent of men and 35 per cent of women ever having used the internet, the overall access is better but the gender divide is still entrenched, as per the National Family Health Survey 2020. In short, the internet accessibility and use in the country largely varied based on factors like gender and socio-economic divide. This digital gap only increased further in the rural hinterlands compared to urban metros. In addition, a majority of India’s digital population accessed the internet via their mobile phones. An increased availability of cheap data plans along with various government initiatives under the Digital India mission worked together to make mobile the primary internet access in the country. It is mostly used for social networking.
During the
lockdown, we have seen the power of digital technology not only in running the
business but also in imparting education. While
addressing the 40th annual general meeting of Infosys on June 19, 2021, Nandan
Nilekani said the hybrid workforce model will be the new normal
and the dramatic shift to living and working online has altered the business
landscape in irrevocable ways. The Infosys co-founder added that unprecedented
technology transformation driven by cloud and digitalisation of business models
will shape the new normal.
As such, India has to increase the internet penetration. However, frequent power breakdown
coupled with poor quality of apps demotivate users. For example, the income-tax department launched a new e-filing
portal on June 7, 2021, hard-selling it as a game changer. Results have been
disappointing, with frustrated users taking to social media to give vent to
their feelings. Given that e-filing has been around for a while, the messy
transition to a new portal is inexcusable.
An information technology powerhouse that is India needs to do much better. There is an urgent need to resolve issues like poor internet connectivity, power cuts, and, of course, a spike in app usage on mobile phones. In addition to the availability of reliable digital technology, the Indian entrepreneurs/ manufactures have to change their ‘causal’ or 'chalta hai’ ('It's okay', 'Let it be') mentality if we want to take advantage of the Fourth Industrial Revolution early. For example, in general the manufactured product doesn’t follow the set protocol. Why is Covexin not approved by WHO is a question that is being asked by many people? Covexin, the vaccine that is developed by Bharat Biotech, Hyderabad, has been facing a certain amount of scrutiny. Covexin is yet to receive approval from WHO, which requires the manufacturer to provide documentation that the UN agency needs in order to validate the manufacturer’s claims.
Are we really a Chalta Hai nation? Is Chalta Hai ingrained in our DNA or is it just a bad habit which can be easily exterminated? Will this attitude stop India from becoming a global power? Alpesh Patel (2018) [3] delves into this quirky Indian approach and answers these questions by examining the country's pace of progress in fields such as science, education, infrastructure, films and sports since Independence. Interesting facts and unsettling inferences force the reader to introspect and awaken him to the need for an urgent action.
The following pages discuss suggestions on how to get rid of the Chalta Hai attitude and take India closer to the dream of becoming an empowered economy through the Fourth Industrial Revolution. We have to recognise that India could not take the full advantages of the first three industrial revolutions.
Firstly, talent, intelligence and skill among people make a nation. Today the talent emerges from a narrow base of about 150-200 million people. The rest 1200 million population is nowhere in the picture since they are not properly trained or educated as per the requirement. This must change. A good quality of the Computer Literacy learning should be a compulsory part of the Indian school curriculum. This will develop literacy in coding which underpins the ability to create technology. At the same time it provides a base for the research and reasoning. The focus of information literacy education being the development of students' abilities to construct, collect and analyse information in a way that provides the basis for effective decision making. As such, India needs to re-look at its education system and incorporate a more practical fact driven system based on ICT. We have enough people to invest in. It’s the investment that’s lacking. Shockingly, there are still too few institutions of excellence and getting into ‘good’ Indian colleges is often harder than getting into US universities. “No country has gone up the wealth ladder without widespread availability of both good public education and regular, skilled employment. Brain drain is not our problem, brain waste is,” noted by the TOI Editorial. [4]
Secondly, the current state of quality of Research & Development (R&D) in India is abysmal or inadequate, though a special attention has been made in recent years to focus on innovations through measures like start-ups. India has been investing a very small amount in R & R&D. For the last 20 years R&D spending in India as a share of GDP oscillated between 0.8% and 0.9%, and more than 70 per cent of funding came from the government alone. However, in the past few years there has been increasing spending by the private sector. The bulk of such investment has come from multinational companies that have discovered India as a very cost-effective location for R&D.
The Indian private sector, with its dynamism, has no choice but to invest a reasonable proportion of its profits in R&D. According to Reuters, Huawei, China’s largest telecommunications equipment and Smartphone maker, spent $13.23 billion on R&D in 2018, a whopping 14.9 per cent of its total revenue. The world’s top R&D spenders, Amazon and Alphabet, the two biggest spenders on R&D in the US respectively, spent $22.6 billion and $16.6 billion in 2018. Can we name any Indian company investing in R&D in this way and on this scale? No. The big Indian business houses simply prefer to remain in the “service” field, without taking the risk of investing in any long-term vision. As a result, during “the next 10 or 20 years, China and Western companies will remain the leaders while India will have to buy their technologies, even defence equipment, with all the risks involved.” [5]
The situation has not improved in the last five years. According to the forecast for 2021, China will be the leading country worldwide in terms of spending on research and development, with R&D expenditure exceeding 621 billion U.S. dollars. The United States is expected to invest about 599 billion U.S. dollars into R&D while India would like to invest 93 billion U.S. dollars, closely followed by South Korea – that is 91 billion U.S. dollars, as per the Statista.
Lastly, the contribution of NRIs could be immense. The Indian diaspora, one of the most “vibrant and dynamic”, is the largest in the world, with 18 million people from the country living outside their homeland in 2020, as per the report released by United Nations. [6] Other countries with a large diaspora included Mexico and Russia (11 million each) and China (10 million). Most of them who migrate to developed countries like the USA are highly qualified and talented. Indian-origin CEOs are ruling the world especially those serving in the technology industry with the biggest examples being Google and Microsoft, the two giants in the market who are shaping the world. It's not just the technology industries which are being headed by India-origin people but even companies who are big aces in the property, banking and retail sectors are being headed by Indian-origin people.
This can be referred to as a Brain Drain. The Oxford Advanced Learner’s dictionary defines brain drain as: “Movement of highly skilled and qualified people to a country where they can work in better conditions and earn more money”. Among the Asian countries, India continued its trend of being the top country of birth for immigrant scientists and engineers, with 9, 50,000 out of Asia’s total 2.96 million in 2020, as per the Asian Development Bank.
Admittedly, brain drain from India cannot be curbed fully. However, with modern technologies arriving in India, incentives offered to start own enterprises and start-up companies, highly skilled Indian professionals may find it lucrative to work here rather than migrate. Investor friendly policies adopted by the government will most likely see skilled Indians launching their own start-up ventures that can compete with their foreign rivals. Further, India needs a collaborative effort. It will have to create a long term ecosystem that trains and educates professionals. India could collaborate with the US, Germany, and the EU. The central government can consider a joint platform between ministries, state governments and industry bodies to create a mission for making the most of the Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies.
In conclusion, science and technology will be central to a strong and prosperous India. The paper argues that India has to take some immediate measures in promoting new technology relevant to the Fourth Industrial Revolution. The major focus must be on AI, genome technology, nanotechnology and quantum computing among others. For this, India must facilitate the establishment of autonomous academic centres of excellence on the lines of original IITs in collaboration with countries like the USA, Japan and Germany among others. The selection of faculty and students must be on merits. For this, India must use its vast diaspora.
The solutions,
as suggested above, are neither easy nor quick. But one has to do it for the
success of the Fourth Industrial Revolution in India. It requires
determination. It is because innovation does not happen by chance or in a
vacuum. Innovation cannot be legislated; it takes deliberate policy actions,
enablers, positive incentives and entrepreneurship to make it happen. Hope our
policy makers will follow the dictate?
[1] Schwab, klaus. 2020. The Fourth Industrial Revolution: what it means, how to respond, the World Economic Forum, Geneva. Refer at: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-what-it-means-and-how-to-respond/
[2] Sharma, Pranjal. 2017. Kranti Nation: India and the Fourth Industrial Revolution, Macmillan, New Delhi.
[3] Patel, Alpesh. 2018. Chalta Hai India: When
‘It’s Ok!’ is Not Ok. Bloomsbury India
[4] Refer
TOI editorial at: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/toi-editorials/resident-indians-emigration-may-be-going-up-thats-not-a-problem-the-problem-is-lack-of-investment-in-people-here/
[5] Refer article - R&D key to India’s status at: https://www.dailypioneer.com/2019/columnists/r-d-key-to-india---s-status.html
[6] United Nations. 2021. ‘International Migration
2020 Highlights', Population Division of UN, Department of Economic and Social
Affairs, New York. Refer at: https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/content/international-migration-2020-highlightsat:
