Devendra Kothari PhD
Population and Development Analyst
Forum for Population Action
The issue of population control has become a topic of hot debate after the most populous state of Uttar Pradesh (UP) announced a draft Population Control Bill 2021 on the World Population Day 2021. BJP ruled Assam has already passed a resolution in the State Assembly regarding the same, and have introduced measures discouraging people to have more than two children. Thus, the Governments of Uttar Pradesh and Assam are pushing for the two-child norm (TCN) population policy despite scant evidence that it works. Is there any hidden agenda? The paper stresses that India has to stop looking at the issue of population from a religious angle. The issue is more about availability of quality services; gender equity and human development since an overwhelming majority of Indians do not want more children.
Some 45 years ago, in the late seventies, India embarked on an ambitious population control programme to curb the increasing population pressure on the nation. It was the brainchild of the then PM Indira Gandhi, and her son, Sanjay Gandhi, who oversaw the execution. But its implementation was flawed, so Indians did not support the most pertinent, sensible, and timely population control programme. Since then population control in India has always been a political rather than a social-economical issue. Our political leaders rig out the population issue whenever they see some political advantages, especially in terms of electoral gains or vote bank politics, and then keep mum. The latest example is the ‘Uttar Pradesh Population (Control, Stabilisation and Welfare) Bill, 2021, which was unveiled by Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath just ahead of the Assembly elections to be held in early 2022.
Salient
points of the Bill:
Uttar Pradesh (UP), the most populous state of India, is currently home to 17.1 per cent of the country’s population. The state also holds the top position in high population growth rate in India. It is witnessing an annual growth of around two per cent in its population which is very high as compared to the national average of around one per cent. The total population of the state was 8.8 crores in 1971. It increased to 11.1 crores in 1981 and then reported to be 19.9 crores in 2011. The estimated population of the state in 2021 was 24.1 crore, as per Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, India.
The Bill target is to bring the total fertility rate to 2.1 per woman by 2026 and to 1.9 by 2030. To achieve the target, the policy proposes that people having more than two children in the state should not be granted any special benefits and should be barred from using official concessions. [1] It means any couple who follows the policy would receive perks from the State. These incentives are linked to the government schemes, government jobs, promotions and welfare measures etc. which would be a driving force for those who wish to avail the benefits from the government. “We have proposed that any couple that follows the two-child policy will be given all government benefits,” said State’s Law Commission Chairman Aditya Nath Mittal. “If somebody doesn’t follow this policy, they won’t be eligible for such schemes. Their ration card will be restricted to four units. They will not be able to apply for Government jobs and if they are already Government employees, then they won’t get a promotion,” Mittal added. Meanwhile listing out benefits for public servants who adopt the two-child policy, the draft Bill said, “Public servants who adopt the two-child norm will get two additional increments during the entire service, maternity or as the case may be, paternity leave of 12 months, with full salary and allowances and three per cent increase in the employer’s contribution fund under national pension scheme.” There are also provisions to provide exemptions in water, electricity, house tax, home loan, and other such facilities to couples with two children who are not in Government jobs.
In short, the draft Bill proposes a bunch of monetary incentives to be conferred to the people of the state in lieu of the two-child norm. It is stressed that the adherence to the policy will be a voluntary exercise and it will not make distinctions based on caste, creed and economic class. In that sense, the proposed policy is sensible one. It has, however, racked up a political debate regarding demography not in the state but also in the country too. It is a well planned strategy by the BJP government at the Centre to use it to draft a national policy on population control.
In past, some states have adopted the concept of Two-child Norm to control the surging population. In general, however, they have failed in bringing down the fertility or population growth rates as desired. However, there is evidence that such measures could lead to negative consequences such as increases in sex selective practices and unsafe abortions, especially given the strong son-preference in the country. [2]
Based on an extensive analysis, the author came to the conclusion that any policy based on the incentives and disincentives could not have any positive effective impact on fertility unless they are backed by quality family planning services.[3] For example, Madhya Pradesh aimed at achieving the replacement level fertility of 2.1 children per woman by 2011 but it was far from the targeted goal – it recorded TFR of 3.1 in 2011. Same can be said about other states except Andhra Pradesh (Table 1, Col. 6).
Table 1 Trends in decadal population growth (%) and number of children/woman (in parentheses), some selected states of India
|
State/Year |
1981 |
1991 |
2001 |
2011 |
2017 |
|
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
|
Bihar |
24.16 (5.7) |
23.38 (4.4) |
28.62 (4.3) |
25.07 (3.6) |
NA (3.2) |
|
Madhya Pradesh |
27.16 (5.20 |
27.27 (4.6) |
24.34 (4.0) |
20.23 (3.1) |
NA (2.7) |
|
Rajasthan |
32.97 (5.2) |
28.44 (4.6) |
28.33 (4.1) |
21.40 (3.0) |
NA (2.7) |
|
Uttar Pradesh |
25.39 (5.8) |
25.55 (5.1) |
25.86 (4.7) |
20.10 (3.4) |
NA (3) |
|
India |
24.66 (4.5) |
23.86 (3.6) |
21.54 (3.2) |
17.64 (2.4) |
NA (2.2) |
|
Andhra Pradesh |
23.10 (4.0) |
24.20 (3.0) |
13.86 (2.3) |
11.10 (1.8) |
NA (1.7) |
|
Karnataka |
23.79 (3.6) |
21.12 (3.1) |
17.25 (2.4) |
15.70 (1.9) |
NA (1.7) |
|
Kerala |
19.24 (2.8) |
14.32 (1.8) |
09.42 (1.8) |
04.90 (1.8) |
NA (1.8) |
|
Tamil Nadu |
17.50 (3.4) |
15.39 (2.2) |
11.19 (2.0) |
15.50 (1.7) |
NA (1.6) |
|
Source:
Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, Ministry of Home
Affairs, Government of India. https://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Publications/PDFs/4TABLE21E801E5C71B464B9BDA2543C8D7F207.PDF |
|||||
Way
forward:
Do Indians want more children? The current population growth in India is mainly fueled by unwanted/unplanned fertility. The National Family Health Surveys (NFHSs) [4] provide estimates of the total or actual fertility and wanted fertility rates. Based on these and other data, it is estimated that around five in ten live births are unintended or simply unwanted by the women who experienced them, and such births trigger continued high population growth. [5] Around 24 million children were born in India in 2020, and out of this about 13 million births could be classified as unwanted. It is estimated that around 480 million people out of the total population of 1,400 million in 2021 were the result of unplanned pregnancies.
With such a large number of people resulting from
unwanted pregnancies, how can one think about using them for nation
building? The consequences of unwanted pregnancy are being
reflected in widespread malnutrition, poor health, low quality of education,
and increasing scarcity of basic resources like food, water and space.
While India’s population continues to grow by 15-16 million people annually, around five million women in the reproductive ages, especially those in the lower economic strata including Muslims wish to postpone childbearing, space births or stop having children; however, they are not using modern contraceptives. This is also known as the ‘unmet need’ for contraception. Often, these women travel far from their communities to reach a health facility, only to return home ‘empty handed’ due to shortages, stock outs, lack of desired contraception and/or non availability of doctors and paramedical staff. When women are thus turned away, they are unable to protect themselves from unwanted pregnancies and sexually transmitted infections. This type of incomplete control over the reproductive process leads to relatively high levels of unwanted childbearing and reduces the prospects for an early onset of the population stabilisation process, and that is really happening in the Hindi speaking states, including Bihar, Madhya Pradrsh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh.
The biggest obstacle to population control is the non-fulfilment of the demand for family planning services. Despite poverty and illiteracy, modern family planning services are in demand among Muslims as well, but they are as inadequate as other communities. Measures need to be taken to fulfill it and not talk of animosity. Instead of stopping the growth of population by enacting laws, only easy availability of the quality family planning services can give better success. Further, the problem of population explosion should not be seen as a 'Hindu vs Muslim' problem, but as a problem common to both the communities and should be taken seriously. The policy makers have to understand that the situation has changed dramatically in the last three decades, and there is no need to implement coercive methods or laws to control the population. The number of Indian women, including Muslims, wanting to have another baby is falling fast, as per the NFHS-4 (2015-16). Only 24 per cent of married women aged between 15 and 49 years wanted a second child.
Incidents of unplanned pregnancies can be
dramatically reduced, if not eliminated, within the next five years by simply
providing reproductive services as per the needs of clients, as had been done
in Andhra Pradesh during the nineties by using strategies like Vikalp. [6] If
Andhra—with little outside help—could manage its population growth under
relatively low literacy (Literacy Rate of Andhra in 2011 was 67.7 per cent
compared to 69.7 per cent in UP), there is no reason why other states,
especially, Four Large North Indian (FLNI) States of Bihar, MP, Rajasthan and
UP—with lesser problems and increasingly generous support from the
Centre—should fail so spectacularly in managing unwanted fertility. [7]
A user friendly service delivery system can help address the causes that lie at the root of unwanted fertility. At the same time, investment in human development has to be increased to push the process of human capital formation. [8] Encouraging women’ paid employment could be a miracle step as has been seen in Bangladesh.[9]
In conclusion, India has to make the issue of population stabilization a non-political one. The country has to find a way of talking about religious demography that is judicious and logical so that the debate on the subject can take place without any fuss, outrage and annoyance. If the economy is to be allowed to grow uninterrupted, the issue of Hindu-Muslim population must be thoroughly but seriously discussed while fighting the rumour and hate-mongers. This is necessary because apparently Indian Muslims want to be part of the mainstream of the Indian culture, as noted in the Foreword written by the author for the book: The Population Myth by S.Y. Quraishi .[10]
In sum, not only
Uttar Pradesh and Assam but other states with high fertility need an effective
people centric population control policy. For this, the draft Uttar Pradesh
population control bills must be redrafted in the light of above discussion.
The revised draft must emphasise on the provision of quality family planning
services looking to the needs of clients. Here the concept of ‘Vikalp’ could be
handy. Also, the revised bill must
discuss the measures to be adopted in order to create job opportunities for
women. Such a population control strategy/bill could be a role model for the
country as a whole. India has to recognise that population growth is a choice, not an
inexorable force of nature.
[1] Refer newspaper article: UP law panel proposes 'two-child' population policy. All you need to know. Read more at: https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/up-law-panel-proposes-two-child-population-policy-all-you-need-to-know-101625905036415.html
[2] Visaria Leela, Akash Acharya, Francis Raj (2006): ‘Two-Child Norm Victimising the Vulnerable?’, Economic and Political Weekly, Vol 42, (24), January 7, pp 41-48.
[3] Kothari, Devendra (2013):
[4] The National Family Health Survey is a
survey carried out on a massive scale across the country to collect information
on many parameters with special reference to reproductive health which helps
MOHFW, GOI to frame policies and programmes. The first round of the NFHS was
conducted in 1992-92. Subsequently, four other rounds have taken place, the
latest being NFHS 5 that started in 2018-19, however, is stalled currently amid
the COVID-19.
[5] Kothari, Devendra (2014): “Managing Unwanted Fertility in India: Way Forward” in Suresh Sharma and William Joe. (eds.) National Rural Health Mission: An Unfinished Agenda, pp 25-36, Bookwell, New Delhi.
[6] Vikalp’ is an alternative, client-based decentralized strategy developed by the author which provides a comprehensive framework to implement the Family Planning Programme looking to the needs of women/clients. The strategic focus is on segmentation of the clients based on the current unmet need, followed by fulfillment of the identified needs through improved service delivery. The strategy aimed at convergence and optimum use of resources as targeting and providing services in response to the identified needs of clients rather than targeting the entire pool of clients in the reproductive ages. For details, see: Kothari, Devendra et al. (1997): ‘Vikalp: Managing Family Planning Programme in the Post-ICPD Era’, Occasional Paper No. 2, Indian Institute of Health Management Research.
[7] Kothari, Devendra, Sudha Tewari (2009): “Slowing Population Growth in India: Challenges, Opportunities and the Way Forward”. MIPD Policy Brief No. 2, Management Institute of Population and Development, Parivar Seva Sanstha, New Delhi.
[8]
Kothari, Devendra (2019): Nurturing
Human Development: A Strategy for New India, New Delhi: Paragoan International
Publishers.
[9]
Kothari,
Devendra (2020): ‘Empowering Women in India: A Viewpoint’, Productivity
(National Productivity Council), Vol 61(2), pp 115-24.
