Managing Urban India (Part II) (Urbanization an over view)

Dr. Devendra K. Kothari

Population and Development Analyst

Forum for Population Action

Urbanization refers to the increasing number of people that live in urban areas; and urban refers to a geographic territory. In India, the definition of an urban center has remained unchanged since 1961 thereby facilitating comparison of census data over time. The Census of India defines urban areas as settlements with a local urban body (like municipality, corporation, cantonment board, etc.) and/or with a population of at least 5,000 people, density of at least 400 people per square km, and at least 75 per cent of the male main working population engaged in non-agricultural activities. All areas which are not categorized as urban area are classified as rural Area.

Rapid urbanization is a phrase used by many to describe the urban transformations taking place across India. However, this is far from the truth. While India has experienced rapid urban growth, its pace of urbanization has been abysmally slow. India’s urbanization rate or the proportion of people living in urban areas increased from 17.3 per cent in 1951 to 31.2 per cent in 2011 (Table 2). On the other hand, by the end of 2015, 55 per cent of the total population of China lived in urban areas, a dramatic increase from 12 per cent in 1950 and 26 per cent in 1990.

Table 2: Urban Population in India, 1901-2011

Census year	Total population (in million)	Total rural population (in million)	Total urban population (in million)	Decadal net addition to the urban population (In million)	Urban population as % of total pop.	Number of cities and towns
1	2	3	4		5	6
1901	238	213	26	-	10.8	1,830
1951	361	299	62	-	17.3	2,822
1961	439	360	79	17	18.0	2,334
1971	548	439	109	30	19.9	2,567
1981	683	524	160	51	23.3	3,347
1991	846	629	218	58	25.7	3,769
2001	1,027	742	285	67	27.8	5,161
2011	1,210	833	377	92	31.2	7,935
Source: Census of India, 2001

As per Census 2011, the total population of India at 0.00 hours of 1st March 2011 was 1210.2 MILLION. Of this, 833.1 million were residing in 6, 40,867 villages (rural population) and remaining 377.1 million were enumerated in 7,935 towns (urban population). Rural – Urban distribution was 68.8 per cent and 31.2 percent, respectively. During 2001-11, 183 million people were added to the total population. For the first time since Independence, the absolute increase in population was slightly more in urban areas that in rural areas: 92 million versus 91 million (Table 3). Uttar Pradesh had the largest rural population of 155.3 million (18.6% of the country’s rural population) whereas Maharashtra has the highest urban population of 50.8 million (13.5%) in the country. The current population of India is 1,339 million as on March 1, 2017, based on the latest United Nations estimates; and 32.8 per cent or 440 million its population is residing in urban areas.

Table 3: Population of India, 2001 and 2011

	2001	2011	Difference
1	2	3	4
Total population in million
India	1029	1210	181
Rural	743	833	90
Urban	286	377	91
Growth rate of population in percent
	1991-2001	2001-2011	Difference
India	21.5	17.6	-3.9
Rural	18.1	12.2	-5.9
Urban	31.5	31.8	+0.3
Source : Census of India 2011, Rural-urban Distribution of Population

Emerging North-South divide:

In Table 4 we have provided data showing the varying levels of urbanization across the states of India. NCT Delhi and small states (like Goa), nowhere has urbanization crossed 50 percent mark. Highest proportion of urban population was in NCT Delhi (97.5%) followed by Goa (62.2%) in 2011. Among the 17 major states of India, having population 25 million or more, Tamil Nadu topped the list of urbanized states with 48.4 per cent of its population living in urban areas, followed by Kerala (47.7%), Maharashtra (45.2%) and Gujarat (42.6%), as per the Census 2011. The lowest level of urbanization was recorded in Bihar (11.3%), closely followed by Assam (14. 1%) and, Orissa (16.7%). All the Four Large North Indian States or so-called BIMARU States recorded low level of urbanization. The urbanization rates for the southern states are now inching towards the 50 per cent mark while many of the northern states are still stuck at rates below 28 per cent (Table 4). ¹

Table 4: ranking of major States having population of 25 million or more of India by level of urbanization, 2011.

State	Level of urbanization (% of total population)	Population (in Million)		Number of urban Centres including urban agglomerations with population one million and more
		Urban	Total	Number
1	2	3	4	6
Tamil Nadu	48.4	34.9	72.1	4
Kerala	47.7	15.9	33.4	7
Maharashtra	45.2	50.8	112.4	6
Gujarat	42.6	25.7	60.4	4
Karnataka	38.6	23.6	61.1	1
Punjab	37.5	10.4	27.7	2
Haryana	35.0	8.8	25.3	1
Andhra Pradesh (Including Telangana)	33.5	28.3	84.7	3
West Bengal	32.0	29.1	91.3	2
INDIA	31.2	377.1	1,210.2	53
Madhya Pradesh	27.6	20.1	72.6	4
Rajasthan	24.9	17.1	68.6	3
Jharkhand	24.0	7.9	32.9	3
Chhattisgarh	23.2	5.9	25.5	2
Uttar Pradesh	22.3	44.5	199.6	7
Orissa	16.7	7.0	41.9	-
Assam	14.1	4.4	31.2	-
Bihar	11.3	11.7	103.8	1
Remaining 3 million cities or urban agglomerations are: NCT Delhi, Srinagar and Chandigarh.

Maharashtra was the most urbanized state in India till 1991, stood behind Tamil Nadu in 2001 and third after it in 2011, with Kerala being second, with the urban-total state population ratio. However, Maharashtra's urban population of 41 million, far exceeds that of Tamil Nadu which is at 27 million.

Urban concentration:

Table 5 shows the percentage of urban population by size class of cities in 2011. The pattern of urbanization in India is characterized by continuous concentration of population and activities in big cities. During the years, it is found that there has been a nonstop concentration of population in mega cities and decline in medium and small towns and cities. It is important to note that number of cities by size class has increased in all categories except class VI.

At the Census 2011 there are 7,933 cities and towns in the country. The number of towns has increased by 2,772 since last Census. Many of these towns are part of UAs (Urban Agglomerations) and the rest are statuary or independent towns. The total number of Urban Agglomerations/Towns, which constitutes the urban frame, is 6166 in the country.

The UAs/Towns which have at least 1, 00,000 persons as population are categorized as Class I cities. At the Census 2011, there were 496 such cities. The corresponding number in Census 2001 was 422. 264 million persons, constituting around 70 per cent of the total urban population, live in these cities. The proportion has increased considerable over the last Census. In the remaining classes of towns the growth has been nominal.

The Indian urban structure is ‘top heavy’. Each consecutive census is pointing towards greater concentration of urban population in class I cities. Of the 377 million individuals living in urban areas in 2011, 43 percent live in the cities or urban agglomerations with a population of over 1 million. The number of urban agglomerations or cities with a population of at least one million increased from 35 in 2001 to 53 in 2011. Uttar Pradesh and Kerala have 7 such cities each while Maharashtra has 6 such cities.

Among the 53 million cities, the three largest mega cities with a population of more than 10 million are Greater Mumbai UA (18.4 million), Delhi UA (16.3 million) and Kolkata UA (14.1 million). These are followed by Chennai UA (8.7 million), Bangalore UA (8.5 million), Hyderabad (7.7million), Ahmadabad (6.4million), Pune (5.1 million), Surat (4.6 million) and Jaipur (3.1 million). These ten cities contain 25 per cent of total urban population of India (99 million) in 2011.

The growth in population in the three mega cities with over 10 million has slowed down in the period 2001-11, showing declining attraction towards mega cities. While the population of Greater Mumbai UA grew at 30.47 percent in 1991-2001, it grew only at 12.05 percent in the period 2001-2011. The population growth of urban agglomeration of Delhi declined from 52.24 percent to 26.69 percent while in case of Kolkata UA it declined from 19.60 percent to 6.87 percent. In addition to these three mega cities, there are other million cities too which have witnessed a decline in the population growth and the reduction cannot be solely attributed to a decline in the fertility rate. It is interesting to note that the core areas of the mega cities like Mumbai, Delhi, and Kolkata show deceleration in their growth rates. These cities are losing the poor because they cannot afford to live there.

The picture regarding small and medium towns’ growth, having population leas than 100,000 is not clear, but there numbers have been increasing very fast. The number of such towns at the national level increased from 4739 to 7,437 – a net addition of 2,758 towns during 2001-11. Overall, the emerging form of urbanization, dominated by large number of medium and small towns, is good for a balanced urbanization. However, there is need for further studies to understand the growth pattern of small and medium towns in more detail.

Table 5: Distribution of urban centres by size, 2011

Class	Total Cities/Towns and difference			Percent of total towns 2011	Per cent of total urban population 2011	Total urban population (in million)
	2011	2001	(2)-(3)
1	2	3	4	5	6	7
Class I	496	422	74	6.2	70.0	263.9
Class II	600	504	96	7.6	8.1	30.5
Class III	1913	1396	517	24.1	11.7	44.1
Class IV	2237	1564	673	28.2	5.6	21.3
Class V	2188	1043	1145	27.6	3.1	11.5
Class VI	499	232	267	6.3	1.5	5.5
Total	7933	5161	2772	100.0	100.0	377.1
Source: Calculations based on Census of India data, 2001 and 2011

In short, the emerging form of urbanization is spatially distributed dominated by large number of medium and small towns. ²

The next post discusses: Why pace of urbanization is slow?

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[1] Source: Worldometers (www.Worldometers.info). Also see: http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/india-population/

[2] Kundu (2011) gives a useful account of the history of urbanization in India in the colonial and post period. For derails see at: https://www.uniassignment.com/essay-samples/economics/reasons-for-urban-concentration-in-india-economics-essay.php

Managing Urban India (I)

Dr. Devendra K. Kothari

Population and Development Analyst

Forum for Population Action

The city has long been exiled from the Indian imagination. The romance of the 'village republic' for India's politicians and the strong association of urban India with the British raj doomed the city in independent India.

Nandan Nilekani

Urbanization is the societal trend where the proportion of people living in cities increases while the proportion of people living in the country side diminishes. For the first time in history more than half the world’s population resides in urban areas. The world’s urban population now stands at 3.7 billion people, and this number is expected to double by 2050. The coming decades will, therefore, bring further profound changes to the size and spatial distribution of the global population. Presently, the highest rates of economic growth are being witnessed in Asia, especially in China and India, which today also have the largest rural populations, but are urbanizing. Of the 10 most populous countries of the world, 6 are in Asia and all these are witnessing high rates of the growth in their urban population (Table 1).

Table 1: Level of urbanization among the 10 most populous countries of the world

Country	Percent of urban population to total
	1950	2000	2015	2050
China	12.5	35.8	55	76
India	17.3	29.0	33	50
USA	64.2	77.2	81	87
Brazil	36.5	81.2	85	91
Indonesia	12.4	41. 0	53	51
Nigeria	10.1	44.1	47	67
Pakistan	17.5	33.1	38	57
Mexico	42.7	74.4	79	86
Japan	50.3	78.8	93	98
Bangladesh	4.3	25. 0	34	56
World	30	47	54	85
United Nations. 1980. Patterns of Urban and Rural Population Growth. Population Studies No. 68. United Nations. 2014.  World Urbanization Prospects.

But, the picture of India is not very clear. In the last century, which saw rapid urbanization across the globe, India did not face an “urban explosion” as did many other regions of the world, especially in the Americas and East Asia. Consistent with its low per capita income India ranks among the last thirty in the list of countries listed according to their urbanization levels. Out of the 10 most populous countries, India recorded the lowest level of urbanization in 2015 (Table 1).

One can argue that the policy makers and some experts treat cities in step motherly fashion believing that India continues to reside in its villages. This overlooks the fact that today 440 million people (2017) live in India’s cities towns. By 2030, this number will be 583 million and by 2050, 814 million. It means by the middle of this century nearly half of India’s population will reside in urban areas . [1]

The trend towards urbanization is only accelerating.[2] Also, projections, made by me, indicate that India would achieve ‘the tipping point’ of 50 per cent urban before 2045. Thus, India is projected to be more ‘urban’ even before the next 20 years. In other words, the move towards urban concentration is a fact, and as city life becomes a reality for an ever-greater share of India’s population, governments, and civil society must recognize that they are largely unequipped to deal with city-level problems. If not well managed, this inevitable increase in India’s urban population will place enormous stress on the system. India’s cities are now facing serious issues including housing problems, waste disposal, and power shortage among others.

So, it is unchangeable fact that the India of tomorrow will find expression in the cities. What we can question and hence change is how that future will be lived. It is time we start a new conversation. That means Indian cities need to become more livable and productive. While the government’s proposed smart cities project looks to ameliorate the situation, it would not make much of a difference unless cities are actually empowered to chart their own destinies. Most Indian cities today are reeling under problems of infrastructure collapse because of lack of planning and poor management. The underlying cause very clearly is absence of a robust local governance structure and its accountability to public.

Is not it high time we build our future cities? The paper aims in this direction. It is an attempt to understand, through secondary data and analysis, where India stands today in terms of urban development, why it has emerged the way it has and what should be done in next 5 to 10 years  to  make urban living  more livable and productive.

In doing so, the following four posts’ discussion will help the policy makers in taking forward the newly launched Missions, namely, Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana, Smart Cities Mission, Swatch Bharat Mission and Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation in a bid towards building a vibrant and inclusive urban India.

The next post discusses Urbanization an overview: 

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[1] Source: Worldometers (www.Worldometers.info). Also see: http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/india-population/

[2] Kundu (2011) gives a useful account of the history of urbanization in India in the colonial and post period. For derails see at: https://www.uniassignment.com/essay-samples/economics/reasons-for-urban-concentration-in-india-economics-essay.php

Water, Sanitation and Hygiene and human development in India

Dr. Devendra Kothari

Population and Development Analyst

Forum for Population Action

Fixing dreadful sanitation in India requires not just building lavatories but also changing habits.

The Economist

Clean and adequate drinking water, sanitation, and hygiene, also referred as WASH, are all essential ingredients to ensure human development. The data from the World Health Organization and UNICEF, among others, indicate that it is the poorest, the young and the women\girls and infants who suffer most from poor WASH. [1]  An investment to improve WASH services, therefore, means good health including lower morbidity as well as mortality and higher levels of school achievement hence greater productivity. As such, policies, institutions and infrastructure to improve WASH services are getting priority in the national development agenda.

India should build 'toilets before temples’, Narendra Modi said in a pre-election speech to mark the birthday of Mahatma Gandhi in 2013. To accelerate the efforts to achieve universal sanitation coverage and to put focus on hygiene, the Prime Minister Modi launched the Swachh Bharat Abhiyan (Clean India Movement) on October 2, 2014. In addition to clean the streets and roads, its main objective is to reduce or eliminate open defecation through construction of individual, cluster and community toilets by 2019, as a fitting tribute to the 150th Birth Anniversary of Mahatma Gandhi. The mission also makes an initiative of establishing a mechanism of monitoring latrine use.

No doubt, WASH inputs are foundations for human development. Yet for a large section of humanity in India these foundations are not in place. Despite massive outlays for drinking water and sanitation in last couple of decades, millions of Indians lack access to these basic services. Every day, millions of women and young girls collect water for their families — a ritual that reinforces gender inequalities in employment and education.   Only 47 per cent of households have a source of water within the premises while 53 per cent of households travel more than a kilometre in rural areas and more than 100 meters in urban areas to fetch their supplies, as per the findings of Census 2011. In addition, poor water supply has obvious health costs for both urban and rural households, since only one in three households are supplied ‘treated’ water in the country. [2]  This problem is further compounded by lack of access to sanitation. About half of total households in India still defecate in open. This situation is particularly piquant for women and girls.  It is estimated that around 290 million women in India in 2011, the worst sufferers of open defecation, continue with the age-old practice even after 25 years of economic reforms. (As per the most recent Swachhta Status Report of the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO), in 2015, more than half of the rural population of the country still defects in open – a major public health and sanitation problem.) Further, only 51% of the households have drainage connectivity with two third have the closed drainage. It means around 49 per cent of total households in India are not connected with drainage system at all inviting lots of health related problems. [3]  This is a very sorry state of affairs for a country which is the fourth largest economy in the world.  Again there are wide regional variations. All the 10 major States of the country differ widely in the flush toilet facilities. More than half of households in Gujarat have flush latrines, while only 20 per cent households in Bihar are lucky to have that facility. 

The combination of poverty, poor health and lack of WASH services means that children from un-served homes, miss school more frequently than those whose families do benefit from improved drinking water and sanitation services. The resulting lack of education and social development further marginalizes the children and reduce their future chances of self-development. [4] Hence, any improvement in access to toilet facilities, water, electricity and LPG is likely to result in a considerable reduction in domestic drudgery especially for girls/women, freeing up their time for other activities including schooling and perusing professional life.

In addition, an investment in WASH facilities is urgently needed to minimizing the impact antimicrobial resistance. India is seized of the challenges of antimicrobial resistance (AMR), noted by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India. [5] It is because unclean water, lack of sanitation and poor hygiene are responsible for the transmission of diarrhea, cholera, typhoid, dengue, Chikungunya and several parasitic infections; and thousands of people die every year due to such diseases. To manage, these diseases antibiotics are being used on a large scale.

AMR occurs when the effectiveness of antimicrobial drugs – including antibiotics – is diminished due to mutations in infectious bacteria. This happens when antibiotics are ill-regulated and overused, or when they are used inappropriately or for non-human health. Bacterial mutations and the superbugs they create make treating basic infections such as skin sores or diarrhoea next to impossible. They also make surgery risky. If present trends persist, by mid-century AMR will kill more people than cancer, noted by Dr Poonam Khetrapal Singh, Regional Director of WHO South-East Asia Region. [6]

In 2010, India was the world’s largest consumer of antibiotics for human health at 12.9 x 10⁹ units (10.7 units per person). The scale-up in antibiotic use in India has been enabled by rapid economic growth and rising incomes, which have not translated into improvements in water, sanitation, and public health. Antibiotics continue to be prescribed or sold for diarrheal diseases and upper respiratory infections for which they have limited value.

How to mange AMR? Many factors contribute to how antimicrobials are used. Therefore, a multidisciplinary approach is needed to develop, implement and evaluate interventions to promote optimal use of antimicrobials and improve infection control programmes. [7]

So where does water, sanitation and hygiene come in? Clean water and sanitation are low-cost solutions to India’s gravest health threat and human as well as skill development   agenda. [8] India lags on basic public health measures.  Immunization rates (as measured by diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DPT3]) coverage in India (72%) lag behind those in Brazil (95%), China (99%), and Indonesia (85%). The percentage of the population with access to improved sanitation facilities in India (36%) was far lower than the percentage in Brazil (81.3%), China (65.3%), and Indonesia (58.8%). Under the Swacch Bharat Abhiyan (Clean India Program), the government has committed to providing toilets and improving sewage systems, but these measures will take time to implement.

Government of India must hasten efforts to achieve safe water and sanitation for all. Communities lacking clean water and effective sanitation should be identified in both rural and urban areas, and steps taken to ameliorate their situation. This could mean treating water at its point of use or systematizing the operation and maintenance of local water supply systems. It could also mean investing in water supply systems to serve unreached populations. At the same time, access to safely-managed toilets should be increased by investing in and building them, and by promoting behavioral change aimed at ending open defecation as well as promoting hand-washing practices. [9]

It is suggested that the rural employment guarantee scheme (NREGA), which is responsibility of Panchayats Raj Institutions, should be used to improve the basic amenities like water, sanitation and hygiene in rural areas. And the fund allocated to the Smart Cities Mission could be used mainly to develop the basic WASH facilities in urban areas.

In short, clean water and sanitation form the backbone of an effective human development agenda, as argued by the Johns Hopkins University Water Institute. However, the challenges of providing these services in a large and heterogeneous country can be vast. Clean drinking water and sanitation are certainly not cheap. The cost of implementing these for all of India will be very large. Of course, not doing it will also have huge financial implications in terms of health and socio-economic development costs. But the big question remains – will the policy makers acquiesce?

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[1] Refer article – WASH: water supply, sanitation and hygiene Human rights that are crucial to health and development at:http://www.unicef.org/wash/files/1_WSSCC_JMP_Fact_Sheets_1_UK_LoRes.pdf.

[2] Census of India 2011 –Tables on Houses, Household Amenities and Assets, Registrar General & Census Commissioner, India

[3] Kothari Devendra. (2012). West Bengal: Household amenities with special reference to water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) and their implications. Kolkata, West Bengal: UNICEF. 

[4] Refer article: Joshi, Ashish and Amadi Chioma. (2013). Impact of Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene: Interventions on Improving Health Outcomes among School Children, Journal of Environmental and Public Health Volume 2013. 

[5]Refer SEARO, WHO conference:   Combating Antimicrobial Resistance in India at http://www.searo.who.int/india/topics/antimicrobial_resistance/Combating_Antimicrobial_Resistance_in_India/en/ . Also refer article: Antimicrobial resistance in India: A review by S. Ganesh et al (J Nat Sci Biol Med.) 2013. Also refer: Refer WHO Policy Perspectives on Medicines No. 10 entitled: Containing antimicrobial resistance.

[6] Refer article - Staving off the superbugs: High-quality water and sanitation are low-cost solutions to humanity’s gravest health threat by Poonam Khetrapal Singh at:  http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/toi-edit-page/staving-off-the-superbugs-high-quality-water-and-sanitation-are-low-cost-solutions-to-humanitys-gravest-health-threat/

[7] Laxminarayan R, and Chaudhury RR. (2016). Antibiotic Resistance in India: Drivers and Opportunities for Action. PLoS Med 13(3). Also refer:

http://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1001974

[8] Refer article: The importance of water, sanitation, and hygiene as keys to national development, John Hopkins Water Magazine, 2015 at: http://water.jhu.edu/index.php/magazine/climate-change-and-health-why-the-link-to-water-is-critical/.

[9] Hygiene is four times as important as clean drinking water for preventing diarrheal disease according to research published in The Lancet - medical journal.