Can India be a knowledge super power? (Post # 108)

Dr. Devendra Kothari

Population and Development Analyst

Forum for Population Action

“An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.”

Benjamin Franklin

On August 9, 2019, I spent some time in the New York Public Library, located in the city of New York.  The library is housed in a massive building, and it was opened for the public in 1895. With nearly 10 million books, the New York Public Library is one of the largest libraries in the World.  One displayed phrase in the library - Knowledge is Power – attracted me the most. The phrase was in red letters and perhaps was telling   that   'knowledge' is of basic ingredient for the development of a nation. Libraries are a storehouse of ‘knowledge’, so, it is generally said that ‘when in doubt, go to the library'.

The phrase ‘Knowledge is Power’ (ज्ञान ही शक्ति है) generally implies that with knowledge and education the potential or power of a person increases. It is certainly unmatched. The rise of human beings as the most powerful living-beings on planet is only due to the knowledge and the proper application of knowledge. In short, knowledge is a powerful factor that empowers people in achieving great results.

Before we dwell further, let us discuss briefly what difference between knowledge and education is.  There is not much difference between two as both are correlated to each other. In fact one leads to another.   Education is what you learn from school or college or an institution or a book. Knowledge is the things you absorb from what they teach in these institutions or books.  One can also acquire knowledge from practical experiences in life.

Thanks to innumerable thinkers, researchers and teachers who absorbed the best in the world and charted out a path on their own, ancient India emerged as a global centre of learning and was described as “Vishwaguru” (विश्वगुरु) or ‘Preceptor of the World’.   The world looked up to India as a source of knowledge. It is believed that when Alexander the Great returned to Persia after his  invasion of India, the most valued treasure that he took back was not gold or spices, but a guru and spiritual master, Yogi Kalyan (c. 398 – 323 BC) from Taxila, later called Calanus by the Greeks.[1]

Ancient India was home to some of the famous centres of learning like Takshashila (Taxila), Nalanda, Vallabhi and Pushpagiri, which attracted knowledge seekers and pundits from across the country and the world. The subjects such as philosophy, mathematics, archery, military arts, surgery, medicine, astronomy, futurology, magic, economics, commerce, agriculture, music and dance were taught at these centres of higher learning. Chanakya, the author of Arthashastra and Charaka, famous Ayurvedic physician, were products of Takshashila.  In the 7th century AD, Xuanzang, a Chinese scholar, studied with many celebrated Buddhist masters at the famous university at Nalanda. When he returned, he carried with him some 657 Sanskrit texts. With the emperor’s support, he set up a large translation bureau in Xi’an with collaborators from all over East Asia. [2]

As per the 2011 census, about 8.2 per cent (68 million) of Indians were graduates; and current higher education system of India is the third largest in the world after USA and China. It has expanded at a fast pace by adding nearly 20,000 colleges and more than 8 million students in a decade from 2000–01 to 2010–11. As of today, India has more than 800 universities, with a break up of Central, State, Deemed and Private universities along with many institutions of  National Importance - which include Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs), National Institute of Technology (NITs), All India Institutes of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), Indian Institute of Science, Indian Institutes of Management (IIMs), International Institute of Information Technology (IIIT), Universities of  Calcutta, Madras and Mumbai (1857) and Jawaharlal Nehru University,  have been globally acclaimed for their standard of education. However, Indian universities still lag far behind universities such as Cambridge, Oxford, Harvard, Stanford and Tsinghua.

In the last 30 years, higher education in India has witnessed rapid and impressive growth, and as such, India should be a Knowledge Superpower! But higher education in India suffers from several systemic deficiencies. It continues to provide graduates that are unemployable despite emerging shortages of skilled manpower in an increasing number of sectors. The standards of academic research are low and declining. Some of the problems of the Indian higher education, such as the unwieldy affiliating system, inflexible academic structure, uneven capacity across various subjects, eroding autonomy of academic institutions, and the low level of public funding are well known.

As a result, for the first time since 2012, there is not a single Indian entry in the world’s top 300 institutes as per the Times Higher Education’s 2020 rankings. [3]  The Indian Institute of Science (IISC) in Bengaluru — the only Indian entry in the top 300 last year — dropped into the 301-350 group after “a significant fall in its citation impact score offsetting improvements in research environment, teaching environment and industry income.” IITs in Mumbai, Delhi and Kharagpur have been placed in the 401-500 ranking bracket.  Similarly, Delhi-based Jawaharlal Nehru University was for the first time ranked in the 601-800 grouping.

According to the THE 2020 rankings, the University of Oxford held its top position for the fourth year, while the California Institute of Technology rose from fifth to second. The University of Cambridge, Stanford University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology slip one place to third, fourth and fifth, respectively.

Globally, the US continues to dominate the ranking, with 60 institutions in the top 200. US universities make up 14 of the global top 20 and seven of the top 10, with the country’s leading institutions performing particularly well in the area of citation impact. China has emerged another top leaning institutions with 24 of its universities finding spot in the top 200 in the list. Its two centres – Tsinghua University   (globally ranked 22nd) and Peking University   (23^rd) are among the world’s top 30 universities.

Can India be a knowledge super power? Ellie Bothwell, THE rankings editor, said: “India has a huge amount of potential in global higher education, given its rapidly growing youth population and economy and use of English-language instruction. However, it is disappointing to see the country fall out of the top 300 of the rankings this year, with only a small number of institutions registering progress.”

While a high economic growth, requiring specific skill sets, has generated employment, it has led to a situation where education shops have cropped up imparting skills without adding real knowledge. Also, this has affected the well known leaning institutions. It means the rapid growth of 'just skills' education is eroding our knowledge base. “What such a decline has led to is the diminishing Indian presence in the global knowledge creation process. What an editor in a prominent publishing house told this columnist will reveal the extent of this reduction. In the last decade the number of Indian authors publishing social sciences books has dropped by over 20 per cent, while the number of proposals for publishing social sciences guidebooks has increased by 35 per cent”, noted by Dr. Swaminathan of Uppsala University, Sweden. [4]

So what India should be doing?  The key to maintaining and enhancing our knowledge base is to -- borrowing a tech terminology -- declare certain institutions as 'cutting edge institutions'.[5] These institutions should be spread across disciplines, unlike the current emphasis on applied science. Such an approach is essential if India is to maintain the knowledge base that it has painfully created over the last five decades. This will also allow India to once again begin contributing in a systematic way to the global knowledge creation process and eventually establish its hegemony. The entry into such institutions, whether of research faculty or students, should involve the crossing of multiple barriers and only the very best should get into it. Very best, of course, means the absence of quotas of any kind and a whetting process that weeds out those not interested in conducting research. Entry into a 'cutting edge institution' should also mean a guarantee of tenure. For instance, a research student should have the path to move up the ladder and get international exposure. If such an approach is adopted, in next 30 years India will be a Knowledge Superpower.  

But, for the genuine growth of the ‘cutting edge’ institutions, we require an effective education system to supply talented students, particularly at the school level, as argued in my paper: Managing school education in India.  [6]  Is India’s school education system geared enough to produce a good quality of students? Considering India’s poor education system from top to bottom, one cannot be too optimistic about it. With primary school enrollment reaching around 97 per cent since 2009, and girls making up 55 per cent of new students between 2007 and 2015, it is clear that many problems of access to schooling have been addressed. The problem is now of quality, not that of numbers. More than half of India’s students can be classified as functionally under-educated or simply half-educated. India has failed miserably in translating schooling into genuine learning.

The Annual Status of Education Report 2017 reveals that nearly one-fourth of India’s government-school-going youngsters aged 14-18 cannot read their own language fluently. The report also reveals that 57 per cent of the children assessed struggled to solve a simple sum of division - exposing chinks in the quality of education imparted in the country. Further, 47 per cent of all 14 year-olds in the sample could not read English sentences. In addition, 64 per cent had never used the internet. This shows a high degree of learning poverty – being unable to read and understand a simple age-appropriate text at the primary level.

The findings based the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), conducted by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD),   further reveal that the Indian education system is in very bad shape.    Every three years PISA tests 15-year-old students from all over the world in reading, mathematics and science. The tests are designed to gauge how well the student’s master key subjects in order to be prepared for real-life situations in the adult world.  India first participated in PISA in 2009 with 16,000 students from 400 schools across Himachal Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. However, the students performed miserably in the test, placing India at 73rd among the 74 participating countries. Following the poor score, India decided to stay away from PISA in 2012 and 2015. The GoI has now officially decided to participate in the PISA test to be conducted in 2020.

Above findings points that India’s schools have become ‘factories’ producing unskilled labour force, thus promoting deprivation at a large scale. India accounts a large number of deprived people due to low level of human development. The Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), developed by the Oxford Poverty & Human Development Initiative (OPHI) and UNDP,   identifies how people are being left behind across three key dimensions of human development: health, education and living standards. More than half of India’s population (55.3%) is living under multi-dimensional poverty, compared to 5.2 per cent in China.   It means around 700 million (70 crore) out of the total population of 1350 million in 2018 can be classified as deprived or vanchit Indians. 

If India wishes to promote knowledge to be “Vishwaguru” again, we have to focus on   deprived population. Bill Gates and Ratan Tata rightly noted:  “Human capital is one of India’s greatest assets. Yet, the world’s fastest growing economy hasn’t touched millions of Indian citizens at the bottom of the economic pyramid”. [7]  Further, if a child cannot read age-appropriate text, as noted earlier, his or her learning curve is likely to plateau, as he or she will be unable to move on from identifying words to grasping subject concepts. “Put another way, all later schooling becomes a waste.”, as noted by the TOI editorial – Read is Right. [8]  For this, India has to unlock the human potential through a dedicated human development approach right from the primary level. .

Delhi-born Harvard Professor Raj Chetty notes, "I am interested in understanding how we can help the most disadvantaged groups in India -- who have not benefited as much from the growth of the past 20 years as we'd like. Based on my research, I think that improving elementary education (rather than just college education) is likely to be a key answer to the problem." [9]  UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) include a commitment to ensure that all young people have access to good quality primary and lower secondary education by 2030. Reaching the goal requires improved educational quality for the most disadvantaged children from the earliest years.

In addition, we need a holistic approach in imparting education, since the quality of education cannot be seen in isolation. We have to recognize the importance of primary health, water and sanitation in promoting quality education.

The policy monograph - Nurturing Human Development: A Strategy for New India  - proposes such a strategy to unlock the human potential and it is christened as “HDPlus” (Human Development Plus). [10] It is a dynamic agenda based on a ‘whole child’ concept, that is school-going child and his/her family (that is HDPlus family) should be the fulcrum of quality education leading to human development efforts. The concept is being described by policies, practices, and relationships which ensure that each child is healthy, educated, engaged, supported and encouraged. For this, integrating the child and his or her family more deeply into the day-to-day life of school and home activities represents an untapped instrument for raising the overall achievements including learning skills and health parameters, and hence improving overall productivity. In other words, creating an enabling environment at family and school levels is a way to promoting quality education, as shown in Box A.  Investments in education, health, living environment and its determinants – the social sector – therefore, should be made a priority. 

Box A: HDPlus strategy in action

Govt. Elementary  School ·         Ensure total involvement of community/panchayat in the management of school ·         Select    all students (As per the Annual Economic Survey 2018, around 80% of students in the govt. elementary schools are from the weaker sections of the society).

HDPlus Family ·         After selecting students, go to their families and provide all basic requirements for better living: water, toilet, electricity, cooking gas, primary health among others, if they are not having.

Human Competency ·          All these interventions will ensure that the 8th graders are well prepared to read, write and be efficient in mathematics & basic digital technology before moving to further education.

                               →                                                 →

                                          

In short, India can be Vishwaguru again only if we can make the quest for excellence the norm. For this, we have to start working at the school level, and for this, HDPlus strategy provides a way out.

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[1] Wheelcher, James Talboys. 1973.   India from the earliest ages: Hindu, Buddhist, and Brahmanical revival. Delhi: Cosmo Publications.

[2] Singh, Sahana. 2017.  The Educational Heritage of Ancient India – How An Ecosystem of Learning Was Laid to Waste. New Delhi: Notion Press. Also refer article: “Make India Vishwaguru again” by M Venkaiah Naidu, The Indian Express, Sept, 5, 2018.. Download  at: https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/make-india-vishwaguru-again-indian-education-system-5340058/

[3] Refer news paper article - Indian universities out of top 300 in global rankings at:

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/71089023.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

[4] Refer policy paper:  “India should be a Knowledge Superpower!” by Ramanathan Swaminathan. Download at: https://www.rediff.com/news/2005/feb/04swami.htm

 [5] The ‘cutting edge’ (अग्रणी) means the most modern stage of development in a particular type of work or activity. For example, an institute at the cutting edge of mobile communication technology. The Tsinghua University of China is one of   such 'cutting edge institutions  engaged in extensive research covering a broad range of subjects, including science, engineering, arts and literature, social sciences, law and medicine. Admission to Tsinghua for both undergraduate and graduate schools is extremely competitive. 

[6] Kothari, Devendra. 2017. “Managing school education in India”, in Administrative Change, Vol. XLIV (2): 78-89.

[7] Gates, Bill and Ratan Tata. 2016. “New nutrition report underscores the importance of leadership in addressing stunting in India” at: https://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/toi-editorials/new-nutrition-report-underscores-the-importance-of-leadership-in-addressing-stunting-in-india.

[8]  Refer at: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/toi-editorials/read-it-right-fix-learning-poverty-to-tackle-actual-poverty/

[9] Refer interview: Good elementary education can spell success in adulthood: Raj Chetty at:
//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/19732807.cms?from=mdr&utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

[10] For details, see:  Kothari, Devendra. 2019. Nurturing Human Development: A Strategy for New India, New Delhi: Paragoan International Publishers.

Empowering India through the concept of "Happy Person", as proposed by Acharya Mahapragya

Devendra Kothari Ph.D

Population and Development Analyst

Forum for Population Action

“Happy Person” builds” a “healthier society” and develops a “Cheering Economy” (inclusive economy).”    ("खुश व्यक्ति" एक "स्वस्थ समाज" का निर्माण करता है, और यह एक "चियरिंग इकोनॉमी" (समावेशी अर्थव्यवस्था) विकसित करता है।“)

Based on Acharya Mahapragya thoughts

The Family and the Nation

While speaking at the release of BJP election manifesto on April 8, 2019, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said:    “India should aspire to be a developed and inclusive country by 2047, the 100th anniversary of its Independence”, and added that his government “will lay the foundation for this in the next five years” (2019-2024). Earlier, while addressing a joint meeting of the US Congress on June 8, 2016, PM Modi shared his dream for India, a dream that included “empowering every Indian…..through many social and economic transformations.” 

How to empower India? An increasing GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is often seen as a measure of welfare and economic success. Does economic growth or higher GDP make people happier? This can be best explained or answered through the Easterlin Paradox.  The paradox states that “at a point in time happiness varies directly with income both among and within nations, but over time happiness does not trend upward as income continues to grow.” [1]

It means getting richer in terms of GDP does not make a country happier in the real sense unless it is backed by a sound investment in the people especially those belonging to the deprived segments of the society. It is because deprivation is a feature of life only where people’s opportunities to overcome it are brutally limited.

There is no secret that in the era of high economic growth, India’s growth is much skewed and its benefits go disproportionately to few people as gets manifested by Oxfam’s Wealth Report (2018) which points out that the nine richest Indians own as much wealth as the bottom fifty per cent of the population. Commenting on this, the Oxfam International Executive Director Winnie Byanyima said: "If this obscene inequality between the top 1 percent and the rest of India continues then it will lead to a complete collapse of the social and democratic structure of this country."  

Further, according to the French Economist, Piketty (2017), over fifty per cent of India’s population still has little or no access to basic facilities, such as quality education, health or sanitation even after the adoption of market-friendly strategies during the 1990s and record-high GDP growth in recent years. [2]  Around 700 million out of the total population of 1350 million in 2018 could be classified as deprived based on the 2017 Global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), jointly developed by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI). Without empowering this population of 140 million families, mainly comprising Dalits, tribes, other lower castes including OBCs and Muslims, India cannot resolve the issue of poverty and unhappiness.

It is shocking to note that India's ranking in the world happiness index has been dropping very fast. In 2018, India was placed on 133 position, but in 2019 its ranking went down to 140 amongst 156 nations surveyed by the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network. The immediate neighbours of India including China, Pakistan, Bhutan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are way ahead in the happiness rankings. [3]

So what India should be doing to resolve these challenges? In this article an alternate concept of empowerment that is “Happy Person” is being analyzed, which was proposed by Acharya Mahapragya.

Acharya Mahapragya (1920-2010), one of the most celebrated Jain thinkers of the world, was the tenth Acharya of the Jain Shwetambar Terapanth sect. He was a prolific writer and has been called a 'modern Vivekananda' by the Rashtrakavi Ram Dhari Singh Dinkar. He played a key role in the establishment of Jain Vishva Bharati (JVB) University. The JVB drew its spiritual and ideological  strength and direction from him. In sum, Acharya Mahapragya was an erudite spiritualist with scientific approach.

As a monk, Mahapragya travelled more than 1, 00,000 km on foot across the length and breadth of India, including 10,000 km of ‘Ahimsa Yatra’ that he undertook in the last decade of his life. During these jaunts, he reached out to more than 10,000 villages, towns and cities in creating awareness on the broad perspective of nonviolence, wellbeing of downtrodden, leading a life free from drug addiction, self-transformation, communal harmony, quality of education and living healthy and harmonious social and personal life. During these trips, he noticed poverty very closely like Mahatma Gandhi observed.  In short, he devoted his entire life in promoting happiness and wellbeing of the people. And for this, he proposed the concept of “Happy Person”. According to him, “Happy Person” (satisfied state of being) builds” a healthier society” (functioning well or being sound) and “Healthier Society” develops a “Cheering Economy” (inclusive economy).

I had the privilege of meeting the Acharya Shree along with Late Shri Siddhraj Bhandari, then President of the JVB University. During the interacting session, I asked Acharya Shree what, according to him, was the single biggest challenge before India. He said: “Economic growth of the kind being pursued in India and elsewhere in the world has become an end in itself. It is divorced from ethics, righteousness and spirituality. It stands in conflict with man’s responsibility towards his own community and the community of other creatures on Earth. Which is why, human being everywhere, are unhappy”. [4] So, we must promote the concept of “khush insaan” or “Happy Person“, he emphasized. He shared the similar views while elaborating the mission of JVB; he commented that JVB is an organization dedicated to humanity with focus on   “happy person, healthier society and cheering economy”.[5]

While elaborating his    concept of “Happy Person”, Dr. Abdul Kalam noted:  “We (Acharya Mahapragya and Kalam) thought over the question of how an empowered nation (India) could be formed and came to the conclusion that its seeds need to be shown in the person.”  He added: “Only an individual who has been brought up in a family that instills the right values will be able to realize his and her responsibility towards the nation.  Such a citizen (person) will adopt the principle ‘work with integrity and succeed with integrity’. This premise is the bedrock of the Happy Person”. [6]

Before I took permission to leave, Acharya Shree asked me take a pledge. I was surprised but took the pledge, and its wordings were:  I will be responsible for educating at least five students for three years. I will activate at least one water pond in my neighborhood or nearest village….I will plant five fruit bearing trees…. I will treat male and female children in my family equally in education. I will lead from now onwards a righteous life free from corruption.” 

 

While I was departing, I requested him to solve my curiosity: “Whether this pledge will help in achieving the goal of a ‘Happy Person’ ”?  He replied: “If you're asking a question, propose a solution. ...”. And then, Acharya Shree retired to his room.  His reply bewildered me. I stayed up all night to figure out his query. Before I dwell further, let me focus on some outstanding features of the emerging scenario in the country.

India’s problems/issues are not fixed. They are changing everyday and hence their solutions. Two issues need urgent attention: agrarian distress [7] and job crisis. Any durable solution to agrarian distress requires non-farm jobs. When a sector (that is agriculture) with less than 15 per cent of GDP supports a population three times its size, we have a convergence of rural and urban hopes: jobs. One cannot lift rural incomes without absorbing at least two-thirds of those dependent on the farm in non-farm jobs. Many farmers, however, cannot leave agriculture because of a lack of opportunities in the non-farm sector.  In addition, the current pool of India’s manpower has very low employability mainly due to poor quality of human capital, i.e. abilities and skills of human resources.  The country produces more than five million graduates every year. The National Employability Report    reveals that a significant proportion of these graduates, nearly 47 percent, are unemployable, given their poor linguistic and cognitive/analytical skills. 

With the World Bank ranking India at 115th out of 157 countries on the Human Capital Index in 2018, India cannot avoid the issue of empowering people.  HCI seeks to measure the amount of human capital that a child born today can expect to attain by the age of 18. According to its parameters a child born in India today will only be 44 per cent as productive as she could have been if she had enjoyed quality education and full health as well as quality of living environment including water and sanitation.  In other words, there are grave deficiencies in India’s human development inputs that are preventing children from reaching their full potential. As a result, the productivity, measured as per capita GDP,   is very low. India became the fifth largest economy in the world in terms of GDP in 2018 but still it has a very-very low per capita GDP, as per IMF. It is placed at 122nd position among 187 countries.

How to forge ahead?: The concept of “happy Person” can be seen as a process of empowering people or unlocking human potential by expanding the real freedoms that people enjoy. It can be achieved by investing in health and education, and in innovation that is human development. And, that could be the way out to achieve the mission of “Happy Person”, as conceived by Acharya Mahapragya.

The policy monograph - Nurturing Human Development: A Strategy for New India  - proposes such a strategy to unlock the human potential and it is christened as “HDPlus” (Human Development Plus). [8] It is a dynamic agenda based on a ‘whole child’ concept, that is school-going child and his/her family (that is HDPlus family) should be the fulcrum of quality education leading to human development efforts. The concept is being described by policies, practices, and relationships which ensure that each child is healthy, educated, engaged, supported and encouraged. For this, integrating the child and his or her family more deeply into the day-to-day life of school and home activities represents an untapped instrument for raising the overall achievements including learning skills and health parameters, and hence improving overall productivity. In other words, creating an enabling environment at family and school levels is a way to promoting quality life and happiness, as shown in Box A.  

Box A: HDPlus strategy in action

Govt.   Elementary  School     Ensure total involvement of community/panchayat in the management of school            Select    all students (As per the Annual Economic Survey 2018, around 80% of students in the govt. elementary schools are from the weaker sections of the society).

HDPlus Family            After selecting students, go to their families and provide all basic requirements for better living: water, toilet, electricity, cooking gas, primary health among others, if they are not having.

Human Competency     All these interventions will ensure that the 8th graders are well prepared to read, write and be efficient in mathematics & basic digital technology before moving to further education.

                               →                                                 →

                                          

In conclusion, the HDPlus strategy focuses on enhancing the richness of human life, especially those of underprivileged, rather than simply the richness of the economy through unlocking the human potential. It enables people to decide who they want to be, what to do, and how to live, as visualized by Acharya Mahapragya.    Investments in education, health, living environment and its determinants – the social sector – therefore, should be made a priority; though it is a relatively long but a certain process in achieving sustainable and inclusive development to realize not only the  vision of “Happy Person” but  also expedite the process of  achieving the Sustainable Development Goals of United Nations. First and foremost target of SDGs is to “End poverty in all its forms everywhere”, and HDPlus strategy proposes an effective way to tackle actual poverty - the main cause of unhappiness. 

I strongly believe that the concept of “Happy Person”, as conceived by Acharya Mahapragya, could be promoted to achieve the goal of prosperous and empowered India. If yes, then it will be a befitting contribution of all of us to spread knowledge and legacy of Acharya Mahapragya in his birth century year. In words of Acharya Mahashraman, his worthy successor, expressed his wish in a beautiful couplet:

“Jnana Chetana Varsh Kare Prakash/ Jaage Samyam Mein Vishwas.” [9]

(That is, ‘May people develop their faith in self-control. And may the light of Acharya Mahapragya’s birth centenary illuminate this message.)

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[1] The Easterlin paradox is a finding in happiness economics formulated in 1974 by Richard Easterlin, then professor of economics at the University of Pennsylvania, and the first economist to study happiness data.  For details, refer: Richard A. Easterlin, Laura Angelescu McVey, Malgorzata Switek, Onnicha Sawangfa, and Jacqueline Smith Zweig. 2010. The happiness–income paradox revisited, PNAS 107 (52) 22463- 22468.

[2] Chancel, Lucas and Thomas Piketty. 2017.  “Indian income inequality, 1922-2014: From British Raj to Billionaire Raj?”  WID, World Working Paper Series No. 2017/11, World Inequality Lab, Paris School of Economics. 

[3] Refer report at:https://www.businesstoday.in/current/world/indias-happiness-ranking-drops-to-140-way-behind-pakistan-china-bangladesh/story/330018.html

[4]  Similar views of Acharya Shree  were also reported by Sudheendra Kulkarni, former aide to Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee in the PMO, for details, refer his article:   “Acharya Mahapragya’s message of self-control”, Speaking Tree, Times of India, July10, 2019.

[5] Refer at: http://www.jvbharati.org/about/aboutjvb/inspiration/

[6] Acharya Mahapragya and A. P. J. Abdul Kalam. 2014.  The Family and the Nation, New Delhi:  HarperCollins.

[7] Agrarian distress, in the present context, is mainly in terms of low agricultural prices and, consequently, poor farm incomes. Low productivity in agriculture and related supply side factors are equally important.

[8] For details, see:  Kothari, Devendra. 2019. Nurturing Human Development: A Strategy for New India, New Delhi: Paragoan International Publishers.

  

[9] As quoted by Sudheendra Kulkarni in his article:   “Acharya Mahapragya’s message of self-control”, Speaking Tree, Times of India, July10, 2019.

Are Indians against small family norm? (Post #106)

Only 24 per cent of the married women between 15 and 49 years want a second child. For men, the corresponding proportion is 27 per cent, down from 49% a decade ago.

National Family Health Survey-4 (NFHS-4 (2015-16)

Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India

 

Dr. Devendra Kothari[1]

Population and Development Analyst

Forum for Population Action

It was a wet morning at Red Fort as the country awaited the flag hosting ceremony and address to the nation by PM Narendra Modi on its 73^rd Independence Day. The nation of 1,350   million people was eagerly   to know what PM Modi thinks about “New India”, which he promised during the General Election. 

Among many issues PM Modi raised from the ramparts of Red Fort, the issue of “Population Explosion” was very critical. He emphasised “small family is good for the society, nation... High time the nation debates this and brings a law if needed...Else we will soon run out of resources”.   It is because virtually all major problems that confront India today relate in some critical way to the galloping population. It leads to a massive diversion of national investable resources to consumption which could otherwise be used for increasing investment and productivity and for improving the quality of public services like education, health, sanitation, provision of safe drinking water, etc.  That could be the reason why PM Modi brought up the issue of Population Explosion. In fact, he is the first prime Minister of India who dwelled at length on this issue from a public platform.

India's demography is mind-boggling. India’s population in 1947 was 330 million and in 2018 it was 1350 million. In last seventy years it has quadrupled.  India now contains about 18% of humanity (i.e. every sixth person in the world is an Indian). China is the only country with a larger population ‑ in the order of 70 million more in 2018 as compared to 300 million   in 1990. The Indian population grew at an annual rate of 1.24% during 2010-15. On the other hand, China registered a much lower annual growth rate of population (0.61%) during the corresponding period.  Based on the analysis of recent data, it is estimated that India will overtake China in the next 3-5 years that is before 2025.[2]

The current population growth in India, however, is mainly caused by unwanted fertility.  Around five in ten live births are unintended/unplanned or simply unwanted by the women who experience them and these births    trigger continued high population growth. Around 26 million children were born in India in 2018, and out of this about 13 million births could be classified as unwanted. Further, based on the National Family Health Surveys (1 to 4), it is estimated that in 2018 around 430 million people out of 1350 million in India were a result of unwanted pregnancies.  With a large number of people resulting from unwanted pregnancies, how can one think about using them for nation building?   The consequences of unwanted pregnancy are being reflected in widespread malnutrition, poor health, low quality of education, and increasing scarcity of basic resources like food, water and space.

While India’s population continues to grow by 16 - 17 million   annually, and while 14 million women, especially in the lower economic strata including Muslims, seek to postpone childbearing, space births, or stop having children; they are not using a modern methods of contraception. This is also known as the ‘unmet need’ for contraception. Often, women with unmet need for family planning services  travel far from their homes to reach a health facility, only to return home ‘empty handed’ due to shortages, stock outs, lack of desired contraception and/or non-availability of doctors and paramedical staff or poor quality of services. When women are thus turned away, they are unable to protect themselves from unwanted/unplanned pregnancies and sexually transmitted infections. And this type of incomplete control over the reproductive process reduces the prospects for an early decline in the rate of population growth.  [3]

Incidents of unwanted pregnancies can be dramatically reduced, if not eliminated, within a next five years  by simply providing reproductive services as per the needs of clients,   as had been done in Andhra Pradesh during the nineties.  If Andhra, with little outside help, could manage its population growth under relatively low literacy and high poverty (Literacy Rate of AP in 2011 was 67.7% compared to 67.1% in Rajasthan, as per 2011 Census), there is no reason why other states especially Four Large North Indian (FLNI) States of Bihar, MP, Rajasthan and UP, with lesser problems and with increasingly generous support from the Centre, should fail so spectacularly in managing unwanted fertility. 

 

The people of the FLNI states are not against small family norms. While general knowledge about family planning is almost universal, access to modern methods of contraception services and products is a big problem in these states.

India must ensure that every child is a wanted one. So government    must provide client-centred reproductive health services with special reference to poor performing states.  It will help in meeting women’s needs for family planning and that would help in avoiding numerous reproductive health-related issues. Women who are able to delay or stop childbearing when they wish to are more likely to meet their children’s educational goals, earn a living and support their families, and manage changes in their environment and natural resources. Reducing incidence of unwanted pregnancies will help in achieving the national goal of population stabilization at the earliest.[4] 

The need of the hour, thus, is to create confidence among policy makers and programme managers especially in the poor performing states that a breakthrough is possible. There is no need to implement coercive measures like one-child norm or to provide incentives and disincentives. The real need is to provide services in un-served and underserved areas by realigning the capacity of health system to deliver quality care to suit the needs of clients.

A failure to stabilize India’s population will have significant implications for the future of India’s economy, that was the concern, one can see on the face of PM Modi while he was talking about this issue from the rampant of Lal Qila.

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[1] Also see article by author  at: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/readersblog/population-and-development-in-india/do-indians-want-more-children-5190/

[2] Calculated by the author using data obtained from the Registrar General and Census Commissioner of India and National Family Health Surveys.   

[3] Kothari, Devendra. 2014. “Managing Unwanted Fertility in India: Way Forward”, --   in Suresh Sharma and William Joe.   (eds.):   National Rural Health Mission: An Unfinished Agenda, Bookwell, New Delhi.

[4] For details, see:  Kothari, Devendra. 2019. Nurturing Human Development: A Strategy for New India, New Delhi: Paragoan International Publishers. A copy of the publication could be obtained by contacting author at dkothari42@gmail.com.