“Cannot Control Tears": Madras High Court Verdict on Migrant Crisis

Devendra Kothari Ph.D

Population and Development analyst

Forum for Population Action

The "pathetic condition of migrant labourers...is nothing but a human tragedy", the Madras High Court said on May 16, 2020 in strongly-worded comments on the humanitarian crisis sparked by lakhs of migrants frantically trying to return to home states amid the coronavirus lockdown.  With public transport shut because of the lockdown as on 24th March midnight with only four-hour notice, they had no choice but to walk hundreds, often thousands of kilometres home, the High Court added.

In that process many people died due to hunger and thirst and exhaustion; and some have died in horrific accidents on the way.  It is human nature that in an extreme difficult situation most of us want to be with near and dear ones. Most of these migrants are seasonal ones, who have left their immediate family in their place of origin.

The Central Government, refusing to allow migrants to cross state borders on March 24, has now, after six weeks, allowed them to return home via special trains. However, amid controversy over tickets and booking, many migrants say these trains take too long and therefore continue to walk to reach home. Further, migrants in a state are not confined to a particular location, and they have to walk to the designated stations to catch a train, since the central government has banned the inter-state transportation since March 25th, 2020.

Now a big question: Who is responsible for this “human tragedy” since the partition of the country in 1947:  Migrants, State or Centre?

P.S. : The Supreme Court on May 15, 2020, one day ahead of the Madras High Court verdict on  the migrants, dismissed a plea seeking an order to the Government of India to look after the welfare of the migrant workers who are  on the move amid nationwide lockdown. On the same day, however, the Supreme Court stayed the Gujarat High Court judgment scrapping the election of BJP law and education minister Bhupendrasinh Chudasama.

Earlier, the Supreme Court on January 22, 2020 refused to stay the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA), saying it first wants to hear the Centre's response to pleas challenging the law. The apex court also asked all high courts not to pass any order on CAA.  Even after more than four- months, we are still waiting to hear the SC verdict on CAA.

Commenting on current status of the Supreme Court, ThePrint stated: “Supreme Court's silence on important matters echoes its Emergency-era behaviour when it crumbled and conformed to the ruling party's diktats.”

End

Above question with a note I shared with 50 literate and middle-and-upper-middle   class people from the different walks of life. Out of this, only six recipients found time to reply. This shows our long-standing nature of indifference about the nation and its issues.

We call ourselves very patriotic citizens, really are we?   This, I consider, is a main reason why foreign powers ruled us for more than 1500 years.  I wonder that the rime is not far away when we may be gain ruled by the outsiders in near future, unless we change ourselves.    

PM Modi’s Vision of “Self-reliant” Economy and Coronavirus Crisis

Devendra Kothari, Ph.D

Population and Development Analyst

Forum for Population Action

When written in the Chinese language, the word ‘crisis’ is composed of two characters: danger and opportunity. In the state of panic, we must not overlook the opportunity this crisis may have presented before us.

In just a few months the Coronavirus or the COVID-19 has claimed more than a quarter of a million lives and disrupted economies worldwide. More than 3.9 billion people or half of the world's population have now been asked or ordered to stay at home by their governments to prevent the spread of the deadly virus. The Coronavirus is, therefore, a reality now, and it is not going to go away easily.

This is because there is no perfect solution so far to end the pandemic. As long as the virus persists somewhere, there’s a chance that one infected traveler will reignite fresh sparks in countries that have already extinguished their fires. This is already happening in China, Singapore, and other Asian countries that briefly seemed to have the virus under control. Under these conditions, it appears that the world has to play a protracted game of whack-a-mole with the virus, until an effective treatment regime or vaccine could be developed.

Hence, we have to learn to live with COVID-19 and at the same time have to address problems caused by the virus induced   lockdown including deterioating economy.  The International Monetary Fund described the global economic decline as the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930s.[1]

India is no exception. With the nationwide lockdown imposed on March 25, 2020, the fallout from the suspension of nearly all economic activities is expected to be massive, as experts are predicting a significant slump in India’s growth for the current fiscal. The World Bank and credit rating agencies have downgraded India's growth for fiscal year 2021 with the lowest figures India has seen in three decades since India's economic liberalization in the 1990s. India's economy is expected to grow 1.5 per cent to 2.8 per cent in the 2020-21 fiscal which started on April 1, as noted in the South Asia Economic Focus Report of The World Bank.[2]  Within a month, unemployment rose from 6.7 per cent on March 15 to 26 per cent on April 19, 2020.[3] During the lockdown, an estimated 14 crore (140 million) people lost employment. [4] The Indian economy is expected to lose over ₹32,000 crore (US$4.5 billion) every day during the lockdown period. 

In a developing country like India, MSME industries (MSME stands for Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises) are the backbone of the economy. The MSME sector contributes to 45 per cent of India’s Total Industrial Employment, 50 per cent of India’s Total Exports and 95 per cent of all industrial units of the country and where more than 6000 types of products are manufactured. [5]  When these industries grow, the economy of the country grows as a whole and flourishes. The government has already issued an advisory asking company not to lay off people during the lockdown period. Good companies are already following this. The MSME sector, which is the largest employment generator after agriculture, requires help.

It means the informal segment of economy is the worst hit in this scenario, since they lack the cushion to cope with a lockdown. Around 800 million people of India are directly or indirectly depend upon the informal sector for their survival. Currently, most of them are out of employment.   How long it will take to recover the economy, nobody knows. But one thing is sure that the coming times have to be managed carefully.

Now the question arises as to how to manage this grave crisis, which originated in Wuhan, the sprawling capital of central China’s Hubei province. It is an international commercial center divided by the Yangtze and Han rivers. The city contains many lakes and parks, including expansive, picturesque East Lake where PM Narendra Modi met Chinese President Xi Jinping for a two-day informal summit in April 2018.

Like its origin, the solution to the disruptive impact of coronavirus crisis also lies in China. Here, the Chinese word for “crisis” as being composed of two Chinese characters signifying "danger" and "opportunity", respectively. Whether one is looking this    crisis as a danger or an opportunity?

Some countries are looking in this ‘crisis’ to punish China for its gross negligence in handling the Corona outbreak. And, here U.S. President Donald Trump represents such a segment of countries. On a naturalistic side, he may be right. There have been more than a million and half infections with more than 75,000 coronavirus-related deaths in the U.S. so far and the pandemic has shut down huge swathes of the economy. As a result, he is seeking damages from Beijing.

In contrast, some leaders think that never a ‘serious’ crisis go waste.   Here, PM Modi’s vision needs an attention. He believes that the pandemic has thrown up new challenges which the country never faced before, but it also offered fresh opportunities. “The biggest message COVID-19 has given, the biggest lesson it has taught is to become self-reliant,” Modi said while interacting with gram panchayat heads and members to mark Panchayati Raj Day on April 24, 2020. But, as usual he or his office did not spell out the agenda to be initiated to achieve it.

Without entering into the ideological debate, we must think as to how to implement the concept of ‘self-relent economy’, since this is the only way to make a sustainable and inclusive India. Unlike other economies, a self-reliant economy is the one which lay down a strong economic foundation to satisfy most of the needs of the nation's economic development and the people's living.[6]

Before I discuss the selected action points to implement the vision in the field, let me talk about why the goal of “self-reliant” economy is needed    for India’s survival. Consider some facts: India is heavily dependent on imports from other countries especially from China. It is increasingly difficult to manufacture goods, including machines, at a competitive cost in India. “Things have come to such a pass that we now depend on China even for electric circuit boxes; not too long ago we produced them in garages,” noted by Dipankar Gupta, a renowned public intellectual.   As a result, India’s trade deficit with China has increased significantly in recent years. Bilateral trade between China and India touched US$89.6 billion in 2017–18, with the trade deficit widening to US$62.9 billion in China's favour. In 2017, the volume of bilateral trade between India & China stands at US$84.5 billion.  India's many manufacturing sectors have a critical dependence on Chinese imports like drug and auto industries. While the assembly of mobile phones in India has emerged as a bright spot for the economy employing a sizable number of people over the past four years, India still relies on imported parts from China for the assembly because of the lack of an ecosystem of component manufacturers here.

The heavy dependence on the Chinese imports has already weakened    the Indian economic base; and it may now encroach upon India’s sovereignty. All these are having impact on the level of employment.

The Indian economy is facing lots of problems, but main problem is unemployment and under-employment. India’s unemployment rate in October 2019 rose to 8.5 per cent, the highest level since August 2016, as per the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy. The CMIE’s figures are in line with the findings of the Periodic Labour Force Survey conducted by GoI, which had estimated unemployment or jobless rate of 6.1 per cent between July 2017 and June 2018, the worst in 45 years.[7]

To initiate the process “self-reliant” economy, India has to focus on two problems: agrarian unrest and job crisis. Any durable solution to agrarian unrest requires non-farm jobs. When a sector with less than 15 per cent of GDP supports a population three times its size, we have a convergence of rural and urban hopes: jobs. One cannot lift rural incomes without absorbing at least two-thirds of those dependent on the farm in non-farm jobs. Further, the nation needs to create 10-12 million jobs every year in the coming decades to provide quality of life for its growing population. Young Indians, particularly members of the emerging middle class - a billion strong by 2034 - have rising aspirations, as per PWC.[8] The recent electoral mandate clearly indicates that Indians want socio-economic development, and for this they do see hope in the PM Modi’s leadership. [9]  Generating jobs is, therefore, the biggest issue that will lay foundation for “self-reliant" economy.  This would require changes in labour and land laws, cutting corporate and general taxes to the level of East Asian countries.

In addition, India has to improve the basic infrastructure with special reference to the uninterrupted cheap power supply. There is a positive relationship between job creation and availability of uninterrupted cheap power supply. The review of the good quality statistical studies indicates that that energy use is either the cause or the facilitator of economic growth. The literature also suggests that the relationship between energy and economic growth varies by country and within countries. Insufficient, unreliable or costly access to power can be a binding constraint to business and job creation, as noted in an evaluation study titled: What are the links between power, economic growth and job creation?  [10]

The job creation is directly related with the production of goods and services. Low productivity, however, makes Indian goods relatively more expensive as compared to other exporting countries. Experts call it premature ‘de-industrialization’, that is it is increasingly difficult for countries to export their way to prosperity, because of a more competitive environment for manufacturing globally.  Further, we stand on the brink of a technological revolution that will fundamentally alter the way we live, work, and relate to one another. In its scale, scope, and complexity, the transformation will be unlike anything humankind has experienced before. We do not yet know just how it will unfold, but one thing is clear we must prepare ourselves.  Currently, there is a growing gap between job creation and the needs of our machine-powered future, known as the Fourth Industrial Revolution. India, therefore, has to embark upon a journey of continuous adjustments to develop, utilise, and maintain human capital. Also, it should be a top priority for India because of its demographic bulge, as noted in my policy monograph - Nurturing Human Development: A Strategy for New India. [11]   It proposes a strategy to unlock the human potential or formation of human capital based on the capability approach; and it is christened as “HDPlus” (Human Development Plus).

In short, there are many reforms that India are required to achieve the goal of “self-reliant” economy, however,  two reforms,  as discussed above, are the need of  hour. These are:

1.   Improving basic infrastructure with special reference to uninterrupted cheap power supply, and

2.   Unlocking human potential to propel the formation of human capital.

The vision of “self-reliant” economy could be “The Roaring Twenties” for India.   But that cannot be achieved without peace, stability and effective governance. India has to create an environment for the fundamentals of progress: infrastructure development, human capital formation, rule of law, and so on. Interestingly, it also frees up resources, both financial and human, that would otherwise be diverted to controlling violence or maintaining law and order. Further, we have to recognise that the solidarity of people is prerequisite for development. Here the issue of communal harmony is very important.   Yet India is increasingly divided. The country has fallen into seemingly endless cycles of conflict and violence. Further, economic growth in India hinges on mobility of labour but there is little done in return for their security and well-being, as we have seen during the lockdowns. An overwhelming 120 million people or more are estimated to migrate from rural areas to urban labour markets, industries and farms.   There is an urgent need for solutions to transform migration into a more dignified and rewarding opportunity. Lastly, any action agenda to achieve self-reliance must be based on a participatory dialogue between Centre and States.[12]

No doubt, achieving the vision of “self-reliant” economy is an ultimate solution of India’s wide-ranging problems. But in the face of COVID- 19 our   way-out could be somewhat different, since our first priority is to manage the spread of virus.

  

India has been under the lockdown for the last seven weeks. It has served its purpose, to initially limit the transmission of the disease, sensitise people to the importance of social distancing, and provide time to upgrade health infrastructure.  Such efforts must continue, but the time has come to lift the lockdown. The question of COVID-19 now is no longer life versus livelihood, but livelihood for lives. Recently, PM Modi  said  while extending the lockdown (No. 3) by another two weeks (that is up to May 17) and stated the motto of the government earlier was 'jaan hai to jahaan hai' (lives are important than livelihoods) but now his mantra is ‘jaan bhi jahaan bhi' (lives as well as livelihoods). Hunger is the more desperate, deadly, and immediate of the two alternatives, and hence it prevailed.

Currently, India has been managing the virus through lockdown. It is an extreme social distancing intervention available to break the chain of transmission and prevents spread of the disease, however, it does not destroy or kill the virus but is an important measure that flattens the peak of the epidemic, slows the growth of the epi-curve and provides times to the health and social systems to mount a response”, as noted by the Union Health Minister Dr. Harsh Vardhan. [13]  “Given the diversity of a country like us, it becomes essential to use this extreme strategy judiciously”, he added. 

Now the question arises: What next? The total lockdown cannot be indefinite. The middle and upper class with savings can survive but others are staggering. Even the middle class may lose jobs at the current rate and struggle to survive. The government is well aware and looking to get out of this situation. We can’t be locked down for such long periods. Time to get back to work with abundant precautions is a need of the hour.  This could help millions among us from privations that Corona has already brought about.

As testing goes up, and economic activity opens, India’s coronavirus numbers may rise somewhat – authorities must refrain from getting spooked by it. We can’t afford to neglect other health problems and economic issues currently hidden by the Covid-19 dashboard.  I will say that lockdown must be lifted and all economic activities and movement of the people should be allowed with necessary precautions after 17th May except in the hotspots. 

In conclusion, the crisis of Coronavirus has taught us a lot of things. Investment in public health, personal hygiene is the obvious ones. However, there is one other big lesson. “That it sucks to be poor, particularly during a crisis. Don’t let our obsolete mindsets keep India poor. It is time we shift our national priorities from all the nonsense we focus on to one, and only one goal – making India rich", as argued by the popular writer Chetan Bhagat. During the last seventy years, India never tried seriously to fix its core problem: Poverty. No doubt, it can be resolved through a “self-reliant” economy.  For this, India’s policy makers must start working on developing agenda as how to implement the vision of “Self-reliant” economy.

In sum, the vision of “self-reliant” economy and its proper implementation will not only help PM Modi politically but India can also emerge as a major gainer in the Post-COVID world. There would be opportunities for the country, but we will miss them, if we do things in a short-sighted or half- heartedly manner.

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[1] Refer BBC article: Coronavirus: 'World faces worst recession since Great Depression' at: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52273988

[2] Read more at: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/covid-19-causes-severe-disruption-to-indian-economy-says-world-bank/articleshow/75104070.cms

[3] Vyas, Mahesh (21 April 2020). "Unemployment rate touches 26%". Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE).

[4]Research, Centre for Policy. "Podcast: How has India's lockdown impacted unemployment rates and income levels?". Scroll.in. Retrieved 24 April 2020.

[5] As per msme.gov.in.

[6] In the context of a self-reliant economy, the factors of production utilize the country’s natural resources and labor to produce goods and services that can satisfy consumer needs, and improve the living standards of the people. Furthermore, a self-sufficient national economy guarantees equality in economic affairs, and sovereignty. For details, refer: Inzamul Sepoy. 2019.  Indian Economic Development, Delhi:  Sepoy Publications.

[7] Read more at: https://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/india-unemployment-rate-3-year-high-cmie-data/article29855098.ece

[8] PWC. 2017. Future of India - the Winning Leap, PricewaterhouseCoopers India. Read more at: https://www.pwc.in/assets/pdfs/future-of-india/future-of-india-the-winning-leap.pdf

[9] Kothari, Devendra. 2019. Decoding Modi’s Resounding Victory, India Currents (USA) at: https://indiacurrents.com/decoding-modis-resounding-victory/

[10] CDC. 2016. What are the links between power, economic growth and job creation? Development Impact Evaluation, London: CDC Group

[11]For details, see:  Kothari, Devendra. 2019. Nurturing Human Development: A Strategy for New India, New Delhi: Paragoan International Publishers. A copy of the publication could be obtained by contacting author.

[12] For further discussion on these issues, refer author’s article: “After The Lockdown?” at: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/readersblog/population-and-development-in-india/after-the-lockdown-11712/

[13] Read more at: https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/social-distancing-measures-cant-continue-forever-says-union-health-minister-harsh-vardhan/article31531956.ece

After the lockdown: Need for a practical exit plan

Devendra Kothari, Ph.D

Population and Development Analyst

Forum for Population Action

You enter strong and you exist strong, you are going to be OK.

Chris Fareley,

American Actor

In the last post (Think before you do! A case study of managing Covid-19 in India), [1]  I discussed how India took the decision about imposing total lockdown to fight CORONA- 19.  This post suggests some points which can be considered while preparing an exit plan.

On March 24, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a 21-day nationwide lockdown in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. It was in PM Modi’s style like hasty proclamation of Demonetization on November 8, 2016. This unprecedented lockdown imposed at 00.00 hr on March 25, 2020, gave 1370 millions of Indians less than four hours to prepare. 

The unplanned lockdowns have created economic havoc in the lives of the millions who are part of the informal sector – not just daily wagers, but also workers of the gig economy.[2] According to the Employment –unemployment  Survey, 2015-’16, over 80% of India’s workforce is employed in the informal sector. One-third is casual or daily workers.[3]

“The lack of clear risk communication from top leadership and mixed messages from across the system spooked the poorer migrants who chose to start uncertain journeys,” Kurian says. “The exodus of migrants may have spread out the virus far and wide, adding another layer to India’s problems.”[4]

Most experts agree that a lockdown in India is necessary to contain the spread of COVID-19, but it would have planned better. As India enters the final phase of lockdown which began a fortnight ago, hope to exist plan will be better.

What should be done?

After fourteen days into the nation-wide lockdown (March 24 to April 7, 2020),  India is still wondering about its impact on arresting the spread of COVID-19 and is bogged down by the enormity of the tasks ahead, a question is being asked almost everywhere: will the lockdown, with its huge impact on the economy too, be withdrawn on April 15? Since the 21-day lockdown was announced on March 24 the number of COVID-19 positive cases in the country has risen from 600 on March 25 to over 4000 on April 7, and the number of deaths due to virus increased from 15 to more than 160. Thus, the number of positives cases increased around seven times in the first two weeks of lockdown. It means the community transmission stage is ‘inevitable’. Further, we cannot neglect the economy. Thus, the number of positive cases increased around seven times in the first two weeks of lockdown. Most of those who are badly affected by the lockdown belong to India’s massive informal economy, which employs about 424 million Indians, some 90% of the workforce, according to data from the Ministry of Finance, GOI. Construction workers, auto-rickshaw drivers, milkmen, vendors who sell vegetables and snacks from carts are all part of this economy; most live on daily wages, do not receive any benefits and work jobs that do not exist on paper.

Without entering into the debate, the need of the hour is to bring Coronavirus spread under total control.  No doubt, the dateline of ending announced 21 days lockdown is approaching fast. No one should be under the impression of the complete lifting of lockdown from April 15 onwards. India can expect a phased withdrawal of lockdown. How to implement it is a million-dollar question? For this, the following points may be of some help:

 

1. Follow Cluster approach: Whether India should re-impose total lockdown after the present one?  Consider the following facts: India’s current population is estimated at 1.37 billion with a population density of 425 persons per square kilometer in March 2020. Out of this around 350 million population was residing in large cities with 100,000 people and more. So far overwhelming cases of COVID-19 were reported from urban areas, especially from the large cities. It is, therefore, one has to identify clusters or hotspots. Every City Municipal Commissioner and the DM has all the information of clusters where the human density is large and crowded with filth and squalor. Immediate steps to isolate these areas should begin on a war footing.

After the 21-day lockdown is over, the infected clusters can continue with restrictions while other parts of the country/city should be allowed to return to normalcy. This will not only contain the virus in the hotspots but also allow economic recovery. Authorities have already started identifying such clusters across in UP, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Kerala, and Maharashtra. For example, a densely populated Ramganj area, a small community of Jaipur walled city, recorded the highest caseload anywhere in Rajasthan, and thus became the new epicenter of the outbreak in Rajasthan. Such hotspots need special attention. In the next few weeks, testing, tracing, isolation, and quarantine should be focussed on these hotspots.

2. Use minimum labor force and develop a new work culture: India needs to be in fighting mode until people get vaccinated while having minimal casualties. Govt. should come out with a disaster management plan for discussion in public well before the lockdown is lifted on 15th April. The endeavor should be to have a minimum workforce on the ground at a time. My view is that one-third of the workforce can perform all the activities of an organization or farm or mines. A rotation system may be developed, and work from home should be encouraged. All places of mass gathering and congregation may continue to remain shut for some more time.

3. Encourage communal harmony: After Markez incident, some politicians tried to make the corona pandemic as Hindu-Muslim issue.  If someone is disturbing the social harmony or creating obstacles against state efforts to control the virus, they must be immediately punished in public under the relevant sections of the IPC.

Here the role of free and impartial Media is important to fight COVID-19 in India. Imagine, for a movement, a raging pandemic in India without credible journalists to verify the facts, Rumors would become the only information available. Amidst the uncertainty, fear would grow. The panic in society that any government rightly fears, would be much worse without trusted facts to counter it; and that is happening in present India. "There should always be room for the argumentative Indian and not the intolerant Indian. The media must be the watchdog, the mediator between the leaders and the public," Indian President Pranab Mukherjee emphasized while delivering a seminal lecture honoring former press baron Ramnath Goenka some three years ago. His words are very timely in the face of the growing threat of the Corona pandemic.

In addition, as India has been battling the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, at the same time the government has to contend with growing communal polarization. It would be a significant move by GOI if all controversial issues like CAA, NPR and NCR are put in the cold storage for one year or so. And our PM Modi can take such a brave step in the national interest.

4. Enhance health spending: Doctors in hospitals across India said the lack of proper protective equipment available for medical staff, including basic masks, meant that patients presenting with coronavirus symptoms were being turned away. Doctors in Kolkata described how they were made to wear plastic raincoats to examine possible coronavirus patients, while a doctor in a Delhi hospital resorted to wearing a motorcycle helmet to cover his face. Further, India is not well equipped with testing. This is where much work is needed and India is behind. The number of tests performed has to escalate and the return of results has to be prompt. Private partnerships may be necessary to manufacture testing kits. One also needs to pay attention to disease surveillance, monitor respiratory illness cases across the country look at spikes in insurance claims due to such illnesses in the hotspot metro areas and watch out for emerging hotspots and outbreaks. We cannot fight this war blindfolded. For the future, set up disease surveillance, testing, contact tracing, create a high alert pandemic response team. We need to build public health forces and trained professionals across the country. Trust and invest in science. India has to increase the health budget.

India’s average expenditure on health is far below that of other developing countries, showing it to be a relatively low governmental priority. Health expenditure in India amounts to 3.7 percent of the GDP, of which only around a third is government expenditure. This is substantially below the low- and middle- income country average of 5.4 percent, of which nearly half comes from the government.

India’s public expenditure on health now stands at 1.28 percent of the GDP but even then, it is way lower than the average expenditure by countries clubbed as among the "poorest". More embarrassingly, the country’s public health expenditure is lower when compared with other South-East Asian countries like Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Thailand, and Bhutan. It is interesting to note that the government's own National Health Policy 2017 envisages increasing the health budget to 2.5 percent. We hope to see some action around this in the current situation.

5.  Strengthen Centre-State partnership: Finally, we have to recognize that Central government alone can’t fight corona alone. Close cooperation of states is urgently needed.  The constitutional vision envisages that both the central and the state governments must embrace a collaborative federal architecture by displaying harmonious coexistence and interdependence. This crisis is an extraordinary situation that required extraordinary coordination. It is, therefore, increased coordination between states and the Centre, and among political parties, it is essential.

Further, all states haven’t seen the same incidence of positive cases. Moreover, there are significant regional differences in economic structure. Therefore, it’s best if states are given leeway to tailor an exit plan according to the local context. “The exit strategy will influence both the economy and public health. It is essential to get it right.”

In sum, the success of Janata curfew’ demonstrated that people are willing to abide by government advisories and especially the appeal made by the Prime Minister. But a 21-day national lockdown on a four hours’ notice suddenly put millions of people at risk, leaving many struggling with basic requirements of food and medicines. They were left with a choice between the coronavirus infection and starvation. Hunger is the more desperate, deadly, and immediate of the two alternatives, and hence it prevailed. In the future, sufficient time should be given before taking such decisions.

 It is hoped that PM Modi will announce such an exit plan which will help to rid of coronavirus and push the economic revival.

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[1]Read at: https://kotharionindia.blogspot.com/2020/03/think-before-you-do-think-before-you-do.html

[2] The gig economy is based on flexible, temporary, or freelance jobs, often involving connecting with clients or customers through an online platform. Further, the gig economy can benefit workers, businesses, and consumers by making work more adaptable to the needs of the moment and demand for flexible lifestyles. There is a wide range of positions that fall into the category of a gig. For example, adjunct and part-time professors are contracted employees as opposed to tenured or tenure-track professors. America is well on its way to establishing a gig economy, and estimates show as much as a third of the working population is already in some gig capacity. Read more at: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gig-economy.asp

[3] Refer: Read more at: Report on Fifth Annual Employment - Unemployment Survey (2015-16).Read more at:  http://www.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/content/442589/report-on-fifth-annual-employment-unemployment-survey-2015-16/

[4] Refer article:  Modi's Hasty Coronavirus Lockdown of India Leaves Many Fearful for What Comes Next by Abhishyant Kidnangoor, TIME Magazine, March 31, 2020. Read more at: https://time.com/5812394/india-coronavirus-lockdown-modi/

Think before you do! Proclamation of lockdown in India

Devendra Kothari, Ph.D

Population and Development Analyst

Forum for Population Action

“Don’t just jump into action just because people are taking action. Know and understand the next real action and reaction that will follow the action before you take any action.”

 Ernest Agyemang Yeboah

African thinker and author

The phrase “think before you do” encompasses much more than basic brain processing and is typically used to refer to think about the possible outcomes of a situation/decision and make the best choice about what to do. When one thinks before acting he/she must begin with the end in mind. Essentially, by thinking before acting, one plans what will happen next. Sure, the future is unpredictable but considering the circumstances, one may be able to make a fair guess about what action will give the most favorable results. Everyone or every nation has had that moment when the wrong thing was said or done and sets off a series of undesirable events. Unfortunately, India has    been in such a situation many times. 

Epidemiologic models show we need aggressive measures in the early phase of pandemic and measures like lockdown buys us time.  This post is a case study of an announcement of the Total Lockdown to control the spread of corona virus. The decision to impose a total lockdown was taken by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and it was welcomed by all. It, however, raises questions about the processes of decision-making in democratic India.

A Pneumonia of unknown cause detected in Wuhan, China was first reported to the WHO (World Health Organization) Country Office in China on 31 December 2019. The outbreak was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on 30 January 2020. On 11 February 2020, WHO announced a name for the new corona virus disease: COVID-19? It is the product of natural evolution, according to findings published in the in the journal Nature Medicine. However, it is difficult to say from where it came. It is said that it is a part of the biological warfare and it might have come from the Wuhan lab.

As of April 7, 2020, nearly 1300,000 COVID-19 cases have been documented in the world, although many more mild cases have likely gone undiagnosed. The virus has killed over 36,400 people, as per the bulletin of the WHO.

India reported its first three positive cases of COVID-19 in Kerala on January 31, 2020, all of whom were medical students who had returned from Wuhan - the epicenter of the disease outbreak. All these three have successfully recovered from the infection on February 14, 2020. The transmission, however, escalated in the month of March, after several cases were reported all over the country, most of which were linked to people with a travel history to affected countries. On 12 March, a 76-year-old man who had returned from Saudi Arabia became the first victim of the virus in the country. Confirmed cases crossed 100 on 15 March, 500 on 24 March, 1,000 on 28 March and 1,500 on 31 March.

So far no medicine or vaccine is available for its treatment except isolation. India has been very proactive and taken the right public health measures in terms of social distancing, and ensuring that the chance of an infected person meeting a susceptible person goes down with such interventions.

On 17 March, the GoI issued an advisory urging to all Indian states to take social distancing measures as a preventive strategy. On 22 March 2020, India observed a 14-hour voluntary public curfew or Janta curfew at the insistence of the PM Modi. The response was great.  Just after two days, on March 24, the prime minister ordered a nationwide lockdown for 21 days, affecting the entire 1.38 billion population of India.

Why 21 days? There are a scientific basis and epidemiological meaning for this number. Its calculations are based on the incubation period of the virus in a human host. The first 14 days are observed as the incubation period. The next 7 days are added for the residual infection to die out. Public health experts also say this is the most effective way of preventing the spread of the infection from those already infected into the community.  So, it was a decision based on solid ground.

It is too early to evaluate the decision of total lockdown since it was taken just seven days ago that is on March 24, 2020. Further, I agree with the Health Ministry Joint Secretary Lav Aggarwal that “this is not the time to do fault finding”. I wish to make it very clear that ‘social distancing’ is the only way to control the spread of the coronavirus at this stage.   However, for its better implementation, we must raise and analyse the issues faced so far. Also, this analysis may help to design an existing plan. This unprecedented lockdown imposed at 00.00 hr on March 25, 2020, gave 1370 millions of Indians less than four hours to prepare.[2]

In his address to the nation, he said “Forget about leaving home for the next 21 days. If you cross the threshold of your house, you will invite the virus home.” It has thrown much of the country into chaos.   Modi assured Indians that essential services would continue, but was vague regarding how people would be able to buy food and other necessary items. As a result, people rushed to shops to stock up before the decree took effect.

No doubt, under lockdown, well-off Indians isolated themselves in their houses, starting working from home, and started receiving groceries at home. But outside their windows, it was a different story. The lockdown has triggered a massive exodus of migrant laborers and daily wage workers from cities back to the rural villages they are from—where many won’t have to pay rent and food is cheaper. As a result, many people were seen defying the lockdown.   For example, with their livelihoods coming to a sudden halt after imposition of the countrywide lockdown on 25th March 2020, thousands of daily wage workers and labourers thronged the Delhi-Uttar Pradesh border, just after two days, in the hope of reaching their homes in far-flung areas, notwithstanding the threat of the spread of the coronavirus disease. Hordes of people, including women and children, with their bags on their heads and backs, waited in long queues to board buses at the Anand Vihar Interstate Bus Terminal, Dehli.  Such scenes were seen throughout the country. But there was no transportation. It is because public transport, including operation of private buses, taxis, auto-rickshaws, among others were suspended. Also, the movement of inter-state buses/trains/metro was suspended.

Due to such uncontrollable Jan sailab (uncontrolled crowd), the purpose of 'social distancing' was somewhat defeated. “Mass congregations like this carry the risk of spreading COVID-19 even further, says Oommen C. Kurian, head of the health initiative at the Observer Research Foundation, an independent think-tank based in New Delhi. He worries that migrants might carry the virus to rural areas, where health infrastructure is weak, or even non-existent.” [3]

Further, the governance was busy in looking after the welfare of migrant workers, their food, and shelter. As a result, in spite of the Home Ministry warning some 15 days ago the Nizamuddin Police Station, Dehli, just located just 50 meters from the mosque,  could not stop Markaz gathering of more than 4, 000 people. Most of these participants were from other countries, especially from Indonesia and Bangladesh.  And, the Markaz became the major cause of corona spread not only in the capital of the country but throughout the country. It was a total fault of the system failure, which was asked to look after the welfare of the migrant workers in place of maintaining law and order. And the country paid the heavy price of this action. [4] PM Modi later apologized for the hardships caused by the lockdown but said the measures were necessary.

India is a federal country. The total lockdown was a test of collaborative federalism, but India failed. Although initiatives have been announced by the central and many state governments to alleviate the suffering of the poor during the lockdown, this mass migration shows that the efforts of the central and the state governments have either not been orchestrated in sync or have not been implemented properly.

“Unfortunately, no sincere and strategic coordination between the Union and state governments were made to give full effect to the national lockdown and its possible implications on people’s lives. An inter-state coordination meeting of all chief ministers and Chief secretaries should have been called at an initial stage, ideally in the first week of March, to make a strategic plan on various preventive measures, including the national lockdown and its possible repercussions’, as noted by the Professor Law Singh and  his colleague Nayak at the National Law University, Odisha.[5]

In conclusion, the government’s intentions to impose lockdown may have been benevolent, but surely some thought should have been given by the top policymakers to how this decision will impact the bulk of its supposed beneficiaries. Could not special trains and even buses have been run to transport migrant labour, students, tourists among others home, before the lockdown?

The success of ‘Janata curfew’ demonstrated that people are willing to abide by government advisories and especially the appeal made by the Prime Minister. But a 21-day national lockdown on a four hours’ notice suddenly put millions of people at risk, leaving many struggling with basic requirements of food and medicines. They were left with a choice between the coronavirus infection and starvation. Hunger is the more desperate, deadly, and immediate of the two alternatives, and hence it prevailed. In the future, sufficient time should be given before taking such decisions.

We'll do less damage, to ourselves and others, if we think before doing. Henry Ford once said, “Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is probably the reason so few engage in it.” His statement may be true and why it seems that so many people don’t, but it really is not rocket science. If everyone just put a little bit of effort into thinking about what to do, the world could live in much more harmony, and the world would become a safer place to live. The law of life of thinking before acting is something that can have drastically different results. It can make us and the people that surround us happy or when ignored can greatly upset us. Whether we choose to pay attention to it or ignore it, this law of life can define who we are. So whenever you want to do something, take a step back to really think and ask yourself: should I, or should I not?  

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[1] Refer: naturemdicine, Vol. 26(3), March 2020

[2] It was a hasty decision taken in the PM Modi’s style like his earlier proclamations. For example, he announced the Demonetization in a live national televised address at 20:15 IST on November 16, 2016.  He declared circulation of all ₹500 and ₹1,000 banknotes as invalid with effect from the midnight of the same day. Initially, the move received support from people. The move was, however, criticised as poorly planned and unfair.

[3] As quoted in Time’s article. Refer:  Modi's Hasty Coronavirus Lockdown of India Leaves Many Fearful for What Comes Next by Abhishyant Kidnangoor, TIME Magazine, March 31, 2020. Read more at: https://time.com/5812394/india-coronavirus-lockdown-modi/

[4] Delhi’s Markaz Tablighi Jamaat at Hazrat Nizamuddin has become India’s largest hotspot of Coronavirus - spreading it to  at least seven states. At least three central government departments were in the know of the event — including intelligence branches, the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) and the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA). 

Within Delhi, the Hazrat Nizamuddin Police Station is located right next to the Markaz mosque. It’s unlikely that the authorities were unaware of the situation developing right in their neighborhood. Read more at:https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/nizamuddin-coronavirus-hotspot-everyone-who-knew-about-the-religious-gathering-at-delhis-markaz-tablighi-jamaat/articleshow/74930784.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

[5] Refer article: Coronavirus: Test of collaborative federalism by Singh, YP and Ashirbad, Nayak at: https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/comment/coronavirus-test-of-collaborative-federalism-819841.html