Change Rajasthan: Agenda for Sustainable Development

Devendra Kothari PhD

Population and Development Analyst

Forum for Population Action, Jaipur

The immediate focus of the new government must be two pronged – focus on human development and tone up the basic infrastructure aiming at improving the quality of life and productivity, thus, creating favourable conditions for the sustainable development.

As per the World Bank, despite being considered one of India's lagging states, “Rajasthan made impressive progress during the 1980s and 1990s. The economy diversified significantly during this period, and the growth rate accelerated to become the second highest among the major Indian states”.[1] However, during the last five years GDP growth went down from 5.2% in 2007-08 to 4.5% in 2012-13, the second lowest among the major states of India, as per the Central Statistical Organization, Government of India. The World Bank notes that “state’s future prospects depend largely on how it makes the critical policy choices that it faces”. This post is an effort to encourage discussion and debate about what should be Rajasthan’s priorities to achieve not only economic growth but inclusive growth.

How to forge Ahead?

Despite the extremely unkind eco-system (60% area is desert, the rest is semi-arid) and other problems, Rajasthan has important advantages and strengths that can help meet the outstanding challenges - that is its people. Rajasthanis have an impressive enterprising history of migrating to different parts of the country or world with almost nothing and creating very successful businesses with their hard-work, dedication, integrity, attitude, and aptitude. As such, the basic objective must be to develop human resources. Human development means invest­ment in human capital. So people can act as capital assets which yield a stream of economic benefits over their working life.

No doubt, indicators of human development show steady improvement, but they also suggest that the progress is slow and Rajasthan continues to lag behind several other states of India. The Human Development Index or HDI is a summary index of overall development which takes into account life expectancy at birth, adult literacy rate, and per capita GDP in terms of purchasing power parity for individual States. The estimate of Rajasthan’s HDI for the latest year for which data is available (that is, 2007– 8) is 0.434. However, the pace of development was slow as compared to other major states like   Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh (Table 1).  In 1991, the value of HDI for Rajasthan (0.347) was above the national average (0.340), while in 2008 the State’s rank was below the national average of 0.467. Available data indicate that human attainments appear to be better and more sustained in those parts of the country where there is focussed mobilisation for various aspects of human development including education and health especially reproductive health.

Rajasthan is still one of the least literate States in India, with a total literacy of 67%. There is a wide gender disparity in the literacy rate in the State, effective literacy rates in 2011 were 80% for males and 52.7% for females.  In fact, Rajasthan recoded the lowest female literacy rate in the country.  The low level of literacy especially female literacy has had a dramatically negative impact on reproductive health and population stabilization efforts. Table 2 indicates that the state recoded the second highest decadal population growth as well as maternal mortality, third highest infant mortality and fourth highest total fertility rate among the major states of India.

Table 1:   Selected indicators of human development:  Rajasthan and selected States.

Indicators	Selected States
	Rajasthan	Andhra Pradesh	Gujarat	Maharashtra	Tamil Nadu	India
1	2	3	4	5	6	7
A. Human Development Index (HDI)*
HDI 2008 ·              * Value ·              *All India Rank	0.434	0.473	0527	0.572	0.570	0.467
	17	13	11	07	08	--
HDI 1991 ·              *Value ·              *All India Rank	0.347	0.377	0.431	0.352	0466	0.340
	27	23	17	15	14	--
B. GDP growth in percentage**
Annual GDP growth (2012-13)	4.5 (X)	9.9	5.5	8.0	7.1	4.7
C. Level of literacy (2011) in %**
Total literacy	67 (IX)	68	79	83	80	74
Female literacy	53 (X)	60	71	76	74	66
Figures in parenthesis indicate rank of Rajasthan (from high to low) among 10 major States of India having population 50 million and more. These states are: Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Bihar, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, Karnataka and Gujarat.
Source: *Indian Human Development Report 2011: towards Social Inclusion, Planning Commission of India, Oxford University Press; National Human Development Report 2001, Planning Commission of India. **Based on data obtained from publications of Registrar General & Census Commissioner, India.

As such, at least two things are vital if we are to re-boot Rajasthan: human development and basic infrastructure like availability of safe drinking water, physical connectivityand  24-hour power supply, as have been done initially by some states of India including Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh among others. For this, the following issues need urgent attention:

1. Improving quality of reproductive healthcare: According to the Planning Commission, “Rajasthan is among the more backward states of India. Its  per capita growth has been slower owing to the rapid population growth, and its TFR has been among the highest in the country”.[2] One has to recognize that population is an important factor in sustainable development, especially when it is growing seemingly out of control since it leads to a significant diversion of state investable resources to consumption which could otherwise be used for increasing investment and productivity and for improving the quality of public social services such as education, health, sanitation, provision of safe drinking water and for control of environmental degradation. Rajasthan’s population has grown from 44 million in 1991 to 69 million in 2011, and growing by around 1.2 to 1.3 million every year. Its population is projected to peak at 121 million in 2051. The population growth is mainly fuelled by unwanted fertility. Around 1.8 million children are born in Rajasthan every year and out of this about 0.4 million (or 4 lac) births have been classified as unintended/unplanned or simply unwanted. Based on the findings of National Family Health Surveys, it is estimated that around 21 million people out of 69 million in Rajasthan in 2011 who were product of unwanted pregnancies and most of them are from the lower economic strata. The consequences of unintended pregnancy are serious, slowing down the process of socio-economic development as well as process of change, and is being reflected in widespread hunger, poverty, under educated labour force, unemployment,  regressing governance as well as increasing scarcity of basic resources like food, water and space despite concerted developmental efforts since 1991.

There may be several reasons behind unwanted childbearing, but most important one is related to the imperfect control over the reproductive process. The average Rajasthani woman bears her first child before she is 18 years old, and has little control over her own fertility and reproductive health. So letting women have the means to manage their childbearing will help to make Rajasthan a more stable and equal place. When women have access to contraception appropriate to their needs, desires, and budgets, the potential benefits are many, including reduced maternal and child mortality as well as lesser number of abortions and unwanted pregnancies (Table 2). In addition to its health benefits, family planning allows families and communities to invest more in education and health care and helps reduce poverty. A child by choice not by chance is the only way poor can aspire a better life. As such, a ‘big push’ effort is needed to revamp the reproductive health services in the state.

Table 2:   Selected indicators of reproductive health:  Rajasthan and selected States

Indicators	Selected States
	Rajasthan	Andhra Pradesh	Gujarat	Maharashtra	Tamil Nadu	India
1	2	3	4	5	6	7
% Population growth: 2001-11	21.5 (II)	11.1	19.1	16.0	15.6	17.6
Maternal mortality Rate: 2011	318 (II)	134	148	104	97	212
Infant Mortality  Rate: 2011	52 (III)	43	41	25	22	44
Total Fertility Rate: 2011	3.0 (IV)	1.8	2.4	1.8	1.7	2.4
No. of unwanted births per woman (2005-06)	1.0 (III)	0.3	0.6	0.4	0.4	0.8
% of pregnant women with birth order 4+ (2005-06)	3 (III)	08	20	12	07	25
% of eligible couples having unmet need for contraception (2005-06)	15 (III)	05	08	09	08	13
% eligible couples using modern contraceptives  (2005-06)	44 (VIII)	67	57	65	60	49
Source: Registrar General & Census Commissioner, India and National Family Health Survey-3,   IIPS, Mumbai, 2007, IIPS, Mumbai, 2007.

2. Enhancing quality education: Another area which needs equal attention is quality of education. Many policy makers believe that Rajasthan has an inevitable advantage in its young “human capital”. Rajasthan has one of the largest proportions of population in the younger age groups in the country: 50% of the population of the State has been in the age group 0-19 years and 71% of the population account for less than 35 years of age. Can Rajasthan take advantage of this demographic window in the next few years and benefit from it? One cannot be too optimistic about this considering its poor education system from bottom to top.  Today, more children are going to school but what they are learning is not clear. The latest Pratham`s Annual Status of Education Report (ASER), found declining attendance, over-reliance on private tuitions and declining reading and mathematical abilities of children in the 6 to 14 years age category in the State. This makes it amply clear that despite a welcome high enrolment rate - around 96% - at the primary level, the quality of education is simply not up to the mark.

Rajasthan needs to place education at the centre of its development. 

3. Improving living conditions: Physical living conditions are equally important in producing an enabling environment for human development. Table 3 indicates that   sub-human living conditions still haunt people of the state.  Only 41% of households have a source of water within the premises while 59% of households travel more than a kilometre in rural areas and more than 100 meters in urban areas to fetch their supplies. This problem is further compounded by lack of access to sanitation. About 70% of total households in Rajasthan still defecate in open. This situation is particularly piquant for women and girls.  It is estimated that around 21 million women in Rajasthan in 2011, the worst sufferers of open defecation, continue with the age-old practice even after 20 years of economic reforms. Only 23% of the households use LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) as a cooing fuel. Around two-thirds of the total households have electricity as the main source of lighting in the State in 2011. Any improvement in infrastructures which promote access to physical mobility, toilet facilities, water, electricity and LPG is likely to result in a considerable reduction in domestic drudgery especially for girls/women, freeing up their time for other activities including schooling and perusing professional life. Critical policy decisions are required to improve Rajasthan’s basic infrastructure situation.

Table 3:   Selected indicators living condition and women decision making power:  Rajasthan and selected States, 2011.

Indicators	Selected States
	Rajasthan	Andhra Pradesh	Gujarat	Maharashtra	Tamil Nadu	India
1	2	3	4	5	6	7
A. Living conditions 2011 (percentage   of households with)
Tap water	41 (V)	70	69	70	80	43
Latrine	28 (IX)	43	53	43	42	30
Electricity	67 (VII)	92	90	84	93	68
LPG as cooking fuel	23 (V)	36	38	43	48	29
B. Level of women empowerment
% of women who make specific  decisions alone or jointly with their husband @	23 (X)	41	37	46	49	37
@ Four decisions: own health care, major household purchases, daily household purchases & visiting relatives. National Family Health Survey-3,   IIPS, Mumbai, 2007.
Source: Based on data obtained from publications of Census Commissioner, India; National Family Health Survey-3,   IIPS, Mumbai, 2007, IIPS, Mumbai, 2007.

4. Strengthening gender equality: Rajasthan is simply not doing enough for its women to improve access to resources and decision making power. Table 3 reveals that the proportion of currently married women who participated in the decision making varies from a high of 49% in Tamil Nadu to a low of 23% in Rajasthan among the major states of India. In fact, the women in Rajasthan showed the lowest level of decision making power in the country as a whole. Further, the share of women in wage employment in the non-agriculture sector is less than 12%. Also, overall crimes against women have increased by 32% in the last three years (2011-13) in the State which portrays a sorry state of affairs for the women despite regulations getting stricter. Nearly 15 women are being sexually harassed, while nine cases of rape are being registered everyday in Rajasthan, as per the Rajasthan State Crime Records Bureau (RSCRB).

To deal with a problem that has roots in social behaviour and prejudice, mere legislation is not enough. To achieve the long-term vision, however, one has to create an environment where sons and daughters are equally valued. At the same time women empowerment requires undoing of patriarchal myths.  For this, women must have access to education and skill training along with economic empowerment through property rights, favourable credit and entrepreneurial support as well as opportunity in paid employment. Insuring reproductive rights could be another effective way to empower women in Rajasthan. Apart from these, water and sanitation requirements of women should be a special focus of the new government. The government should induct sufficient women into the police force.

5. Expediting urban development: Since non-agricultural sectors will drive most of Rajasthan’s future growth, this growth will mainly show up in the development of cities and towns. Although Jaipur and some of the major cities have been growing rapidly, Rajasthan remains largely rural; with a low level of urbanization (about 23% population was classified urban). At the same time, a sizable proportion of so-called urban population virtually live in “rural areas”. Further, most of the urban enclaves in Rajasthan are today virtually unliveable due to large-scale environmental abuse and encroachments and poor infrastructure. There is an urgent need to expedite the process of “real” urbanization in the state to achieve a balanced development. For this, make master plans for all cities, towns with people's participation with zoning laws and taking into account future expansion or developed new growth centres. In addition, strengthen local bodies; give them more powers and financial clout.

Rajasthan has some other important advantages and strengths that can help in expanding job opportunities not only in urban areas but also in rural and remote places. A rich cultural and historical heritage makes Rajasthan one of India’s most attractive tourist destinations and conference venues, which has so far been virtually under utilized. An abundance of rare minerals offers the promise to provide new sources of growth and attract investment.  The modern dairy sector needs further attention. All these will create job opportunities.  

Discussion:

The development opportunities in Rajasthan have lost direction on account of false choices presented in a growth versus welfare approach in the last five years. Mere focus on boosting growth through large investment and opening up the economy without emphasizing on human development is not a panacea for Rajasthan’s long-term socio-economic and environment   challenges. Similarly, an excessive focus on subsidy and dole-driven welfare policies could slam the brakes on the economy and drag people below the poverty line, rather than push up per capita income and welfare. The policy makers have to agree that there is no real deployment in the absence of human development. It is high time that the new government should focus on improving people’s ability to earn more rather than dolling out subsidies that make people dependent on the political class and system. 

This does not require too much by way of resources, but reorientation of the state’s priorities. Rajasthan spends considerable resources on subsidies and freebies which often fail to benefit the target population. These could be better used for improving living conditions. Further, in 2004 a large discovery of oil was made in Barmer district of the state. The oil began to flow in 2009. The average flow of revenues over the life of the assets, which is estimated at 32 years, has been put at US$ 15.40 billion, or annually, roughly 1.4% of the state’s GDP.[3] Though it is very modest share, it could better be used to for the human development.

In conclusion, Rajasthan’s prospects for improving human development will depend on how effectively the new government can implement a comprehensive development strategy, incorporating the key policy options in the five broad areas, as discussed in the preceding pages. A key step will be to integrate the various measures into a well-articulated program, with close attention to sequencing and prioritization. In addition, reforms in Indian states have often been hostage to adversarial party politics. Thus, the government needs to build consensus and public support for reform amongst political stakeholders and civil society so that ownership for reforms becomes more institutionalized.

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[1] For details, see: World Bank. India - Rajasthan - closing the development gap. Washington, DC: World Bank.

[2] For details, see: Indian Human Development Report 2011: towards Social Inclusion, Planning Commission of India, Oxford University Press.

[3]  For details, see: Paul Segal and Anupma Sen, Oil Revenues and Economic Development: A case of Rajasthan, India,  WPM 43, August 2011, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Oxford University, London.