Dr. Devendra
Kothari
Population and
Development Analyst
Forum for
Population Action
If the
economy is allowed to develop unimpeded the population issue has to be
discussed thoroughly.
Differential population growth and fertility
rates by religion are a major political issue in India. There is a
widespread feeling that the main cause of population explosion in India is
the higher fertility among Muslims as
compared to other religious groups, especially Hindus. Further, it is often argued
that the growing demographic imbalances in India should indeed be matter of
serious concern as they seem to have serious repercussions on the very survival
of the “Indian civilization”. [1] Whether we agree or not, I strongly believe
that unless
the Hindu-Muslim population issue is resolved, it will have serious implications for the socio-economic
development. In addition, it will affect everything from efforts
toward a uniform civil code to the debate about religious conversions to
assumptions about Indian secularism. A national plan,
therefore, is urgently required to step up to resolve the issue. This
post discusses the issue and provides facts/information for rational analysis
and action plan.[2]
India is home to many
religions and cultures in the world. Various religions like Hinduism apart from
Buddhism, Jainism and Sikhism started in India. With around 80 per cent of India's
population, Hinduism is the most dominant religion in India. Islam is the
second most dominant religion in the country. Jain, Sikhs and Christians are
also present in the country but in a very small proportions and their share is
declining
or stable.
The Hindus
are present
in almost every nook and corner of the country. On the other hand, the Muslims are
mainly concentrated in the states of Jammu & Kashmir, Assam, West Bengal,
Kerala, Uttar
Pradesh and
Bihar.
Although the census might say that India contains a
majority of persons who describe themselves as Hindu, it remains a
constitutionally secular republic which does not officially recognize any
religious identity as a defining characteristic of an Indian. However, Census data on demographic transition shows a journey split on
religion lines. During the decade 2001-11, India’s total population increased by
17.7 per cent; however, according to the Census data on Population by Religious
Communities indicate that over this period the Muslim population in India grew by 24.6
per cent while the decadal population growth for Hindus stood at 16.8 per cent.
In absolute numbers, the Hindu
population increased by 139 million during 2001-11 while the Muslim population
increased by 34 million.
The share of other religious groups like Sikhs and
Christians in the total population remained steady at around 2 per cent each,
roughly in the same range as in the 2001 census (Table 1). Over 2001-11
decade, Christians grew by 15.5 per cent Sikhs by 8.4 per cent Jains
by 5.4 per cent and Buddhists by 6.1 per cent. Those stating other religions and persuasions
grew by 19.6 per cent in the 10 years preceding 2011.
Though Muslims' all-India decadal growth is less
than the 29.3 per cent recorded between 1991 and 2001, their state-wise decadal
growth rate was higher than that of Hindus in all 35 states and Union Territories
in 2001-11, as noted in the previous decade. In some states, the
Muslim population registered more than their national average that is in
Mizoram (46.9%), Haryana (45.7%), Punjab (40.2%), Nagaland (39.9%), Uttarakhand
(39%), Rajasthan (29.8%), Assam (29.6%), Jharkhand (28.5%), Bihar (28%),
Gujarat (27.3%), Maharashtra (26.3%), J&K (26.1), etc. Kerala, with 27
percent Muslim population of the state, returned interesting results
with a 12.8 per cent rise in Muslim population between 2001 and 2011, far
higher than the corresponding figures for Hindus (2.2% with 55 % of total population) and Christians
(1.4% with 18%).
Religious minorities in India - with the exception
of Sikhs - live more in urban areas than rural. While only 29 per cent of Hindus live
in urban areas, 40 per cent of Muslims and Christians and a whopping 80 per
cent of Jains live in towns and cities in 2011. The gender skew varies
significantly between various religious communities with sex ratio (number of
females for every 1000 males). The good news is that compared to 2001, the
ratio has improved in each of India’s six largest religious groups, the most impressive
improvement being among Muslims (from 936 to 951) and the lowest among Hindus
(from 931 to 939).
Table 1: Trends in Indian population by
religious groups, 1991-2011
|
Religious group
|
Percentage of total population
|
Decadal growth in per cent
|
||||
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
|
|
|
1991
|
2001
|
2011
|
1981-91
|
1991-01
|
2001-11
|
|
Hindus
|
81.5
|
80.5
|
79.8
|
22.7
|
19.9
|
16.8
|
|
Muslims
|
12.6
|
13.4
|
14.2
|
32,9
|
29.3
|
24.6
|
|
Christians
|
2.3
|
2.3
|
2.3
|
17.7
|
22.5
|
15.5
|
|
Sikhs
|
1.9
|
1.9
|
1.7
|
25.5
|
16.9
|
08.4
|
|
Buddhists
|
0.8
|
0.8
|
0.7
|
36.1
|
22.8
|
06.1
|
|
Jains
|
04
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
04.1
|
25.9
|
05.4
|
|
Others
|
0.4
|
0.7
|
0.9
|
04.1
|
25.9
|
05.4
|
|
Total
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
23.9
|
21.5
|
17.7
|
Discussion:
Is
India’s overwhelming Hindu majority shrinking? The
Census 2011 data shows that since independence, the share of Hindus has dropped
by 4.3 percentage points while the share of Muslims has increased by more than
4 percentage points from 9.8 per cent in 1951 to 14.2 per cent in 2011. According to the 1951 census, Hindus
comprised 84.1 per cent of the population post partition, after the inflow of
Hindus from Pakistan and the outflow of Muslims at partition changed in the
country’s demography. Hindus comprised just about 66 per cent of the population
of India before partition. The drop in share of Hindus, due to a steady dip in
the rate of growth of the Hindu population, comes on the back of rising
education and income levels of the majority community.
In absolute terms, the Hindu population
increased more than three-fold from 303 million to 966 million during the 60
years till 2011, while the number of Muslims increased from 35 million to 172 million in the
corresponding period. Thus, the nearly five times increase in the size of
Muslim population in the corresponding period is a major cause of concern among
the majority Hindus.
That
may be the reason why a slight dip in proportion of Hindus from 80.5 per cent to 79.8 per cent of India’s population in the decade to
2011 as compared to an increase in Muslim percentage from 13.4 per cent to 14.2
percent has dominated analysis of census data on religious communities. A Vishwa
Hindu Parishad (VSP) leader responded to the
findings by suggesting that India was on its way to becoming another
Afghanistan or Pakistan. Not long afterwards, a vice president of the Hindu
Mahasabha demanded that Muslims be forcibly sterilized. Shiv Sena’s official
newspaper Saamna, echoing founder Balasaheb Thackeray, called for Muslims to be
disenfranchised. In addition, there has been a steady stream of outlandish
statements advocating that every Hindu couple needed to produce four children
(the number has now gone up to ten). What is the chance that these declarations
of intent will get picked up and adopted by a significant number of Hindu
women?
Fortunately,
none of these views appear to represent mainstream opinion. But, they stand out
as examples of how not to discuss demographic change. If sensible people cannot
speak calmly about the issue, they effectively cede it to assorted cranks,
bigots and conspiracy theorists, as noted by the TOI editorial.[3]
An analysis of available
data indicates that extreme statements, as noted above, miss the wood for the
trees. The Pew survey suggests a far more nuanced picture than the
overheated rhetoric that grabs the headlines. With fertility rates comfortably
above the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, in absolute terms
India’s Hindu population is growing, not declining. Over the next 35 years, it
will swell by over 300 million people to total nearly 1.3 billion. By 2050 it
will be 77 per cent Hindu. But India also is expected have 311
million Muslims in 2050, making it the country with the largest population of
Muslims in the world. [4] Currently, Indonesia has the world’s largest
number of Muslims followed by Pakistan.
No doubt, Muslims
are expected to grow faster than Hindus because they have the youngest median
age and the highest fertility rates among major religious groups in India. In
2010, the median age of Indian Muslims was 22, compared with 26 for Hindus and
28 for Christians. Likewise, Muslim women have an average of 3.1 children per
woman, compared with 2.6 for Hindus and 2.3 for Christians. Due to these
factors, India’s Muslim community will expand faster than its Hindu population,
rising from 14.2 per cent in 2011 to 18.4 per cent in 2050.[5]
It
is widely believed that cultural and religious factors are causing high
fertility among Muslims. But how far it is a valid assumption needs further
research. No doubt, Muslims have higher fertility rates than those in other
religious groups. Information
provided in Table 2, however, indicates that Muslim women in general do not
want more children but they have them due to many factors. Trends in the
decadal population growth reveal that a significant
drop in the decadal population growth among Muslims was observed as compared to
the earlier decades (Section
A, Table 2). In short, Muslim share grows but at a slower
pace. In addition, at the national level total fertility rate (number of children
per woman) is falling fast across all religions — faster for Muslims than for
Hindus — which suggests India’s population may stabilize in just a few years
with right type of policies. The number of children per Hindu woman has gone down
from 3.3 children in 1992-93 to 2.6 in 2005-06, as per the National Family
Health Surveys (NFHSs). The Hindu-Muslim fertility differentials, however,
declined from 1.1 children per woman in 1992-93 to less than 0.5 children in 2005-06,
as shown in Section B (Table 2).
Table 2 Hindus
versus Muslims: a fertility planning comparison.
|
A:Trends in decadal population
growth in percentage
|
|||
|
Year
|
Muslim
|
Hindu
|
Difference
|
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
|
1981-1991
|
32.9
|
22.8
|
10.1
|
|
1991-2001
|
29.3
|
20.0
|
9.3
|
|
2001-2011
|
24.6
|
16.8
|
7.8
|
|
B:Trend in number of children per women
(Total Fertility Rate )
|
|||
|
1992-93 (NFHS-1)
|
4.30
|
3.30
|
1.00
|
|
1998-99 (NFHS-2)
|
3.59
|
2.78
|
0.81
|
|
2005-06 (NFHS-3)
|
3.09
|
2.65
|
0.44
|
|
C: Trends in unwanted childbearing per
woman
|
|||
|
1992-93 (NFHS-1)
|
1.06
|
0.72
|
0.34
|
|
1998-99 (NFHS-2)
|
1.05
|
0.70
|
0.35
|
|
2005-06 (NFHS-3
|
1.10
|
0.80
|
0.30
|
|
D:Trends in percentage of couples using
modern contraception
|
|||
|
1992-93 (NFHS-1)
|
22.0
|
37.7
|
-15.7
|
|
1998-99 (NFHS-2)
|
30.2
|
44.3
|
-14.1
|
|
2005-06 (NFHS-3)
|
36.4
|
50.2
|
-13.8
|
|
E:Trends in unmet need for family
planning services
|
|||
|
1992-93 (NFHS-1)
|
25.8
|
18.9
|
6.9
|
|
1998-99 (NFHS-2)
|
22.0
|
15.1
|
6.9
|
|
2005-06 (NFHS-3)
|
18.8
|
11.9
|
6.9
|
|
Source: Census of
India and National Family Health Survey 1, 2 and 3.
|
|||
Based on the
fertility planning data of NFHSs, it is estimated that every fourth (27.6)
Muslim child born in India is a result of unwanted pregnancies. The impact of unwanted fertility can be
measured by comparing the total wanted fertility rate with the total fertility
rate. The total wanted fertility rate represents the level of fertility that
theoretically would result if all
unwanted births were prevented. As per
the NFHS-3 (2005-06), the total wanted fertility rate of Muslim women is 2
children per woman lower than by 1.1 (i.e., by 36%) than the total fertility
rate of 3.1 (Section C, Table 2). This
means that if unwanted births could be eliminated, the Muslim fertility rate would
drop to below the replacement level fertility (2.0 children per Muslim woman)
needed to initiate the process of population stabilization.
Of course, we do not know that the rapidly declining
fertility of Muslim women will continue. It would not be surprising if Muslim
fertility stabilized at a somewhat higher level than non-Muslim fertility in
India. As a result, Muslims may maintain a population growth rate somewhat
higher than other groups and their percentage of India’s population might
slowly grow. It is because the use of modern
methods of contraceptive is very low among Muslims as compared to others. Religious differences in the use of modern
contraception, based on the NFHS-3 data, clearly indicate the prevalence rate
of modern contraception is the highest among Jains (69%) and lowest among
Muslims (36%). Around 50% of Hindus are protected by any modern method like sterilization,
pill, IUD and Condom (Section D, Table 2), which are available in the official family
planning program. The prevalence of
sterilization does not differ much among most religious groups, except for the
fact that it is very low among Muslims. The proportion of women and men who have been
sterilized is twice as high for Hindus as for Muslims (22% compared to 41%
among Hindus).
Unmet need for family planning [6] is an important
indicator of assessing the potential demand for family planning services or
modern contraceptives. In spite of poverty and illiteracy, the prevailing unmet
need for modern family planning services
is surprising, especially among Muslims.
NFHSs data indicates that Muslims have lower use rates of modern
contraceptives than Hindus. That may be the reason why unmet need for modern
contraceptives is the highest among Muslims as compared to other religious
groups. As compared to Hindu women,
Muslim women have high level of unmet need for family planning services, as
shown in the Section E (15 % versus 22%).
Now question arises why Muslims are not able manage
their fertility? It is widely believed that Indian politicians kept Muslim
educationally and economically backward and used as vote bank. This is result
of it and no use in blaming a community. So, what should be agenda?
The socioeconomic development played a key role in the Muslim dominated North
Africa and Central Asia including Turkey, where fertility started declining
even without a very aggressive family planning program. On the other hand, in Southeast Asia,
particularly Indonesia, followed by Bangladesh and then Iran, it was family
planning programs that affected fertility. [7] It appears that the Sachar Committee did not
give importance to the concept of the reproductive health in its
recommendations to improve the conditions of Muslims in India. [8]
In Bangladesh total fertility rate has
gone down to less than 2.5 children (Table 3). In Pakistan, it is four.
Pakistan is behind mainly because the contraceptive use rate among eligible
couples is around half as it is in Bangladesh, even though living conditions
are better in Pakistan. It appears that the family planning program in Pakistan
has not been effectively implemented as compared to Bangladesh.
Table 3 Selected Muslim dominated countries: Total fertility
rate, 2010
|
Countries
|
Average number of children per
woman (TFR) 2010
|
|
Afghanistan
|
5.7
|
|
Sudan
|
4.5
|
|
Pakistan
|
4.2
|
|
Saudi Arabia
|
3.8
|
|
Egypt
|
3.0
|
|
Bangladesh
|
2.4
|
|
Indonesia
|
2.4
|
|
India
|
2.6
|
|
Turkey
|
2.1
|
|
Iran
|
1.8
|
|
Source: 2010
Population Reference Bureau, Washington DC
|
|
Well,
the only major religion left out of the demographic transition in India is
Islam. And this group could be helped by providing family planning services
looking to the needs of clients as happened in Bangladesh. India’s
contraceptive method mix is skewed towards female sterilization, and the range
of methods women can use to space their births is narrow. Many Muslim scholars believe that the permanent method
of contraception is not permitted in Islam. So India has to diversify its
approach to include other modern methods of contraception including injectables
with quality in its program.[9]
Indonesia and
Bangladesh, both developing, Muslim-majority countries, have outperformed India
in terms of falling birth rates by simply providing quality services looking to
the needs of clients including easy access
to a bigger basket of choices in contraception. Bangladesh probably has
socio-economic indicators that are similar to some large Indian states like
Bihar and Uttar Pradesh.
I think that the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare
(MoHFW), Government of India must address this issue squarely, and the
authorities have to accept that there is a problem in the management of family
planning programme and resolve it. [10] Matters cannot
be shoved under the carpet now.
In
addition, policies are urgently needed to empower the Muslim women. The
Bharatiya Muslim Mahila Andolan (BMMA), an organization working for Muslim
women empowerment, has written a letter to the prime minister of India to
codify the Muslim Personal Law as per a draft prepared by them and makes
certain prevalent practices illegal in order to empower women. These include making illegal unilateral oral
triple talaq, polygamy, compulsory marriage of women with another person if she
intends to re-unite with divorced husband, temporary marriage contract (Muta),
etc. The letter states, "Certain orthodox
and patriarchal males have dominated the debate on rights of Muslim women and
have stonewalled any attempt towards reform in Muslim Personal Law”. [11] If approved by the
government, it will help to improve the decision making power of Muslim women.
In addition, efforts should be made to promote female education and employment
opportunities.
In sum, over the coming
decades, India’s changing religious demographics may likely upend politics as
we know it, particularly in states with large Muslim populations such as West
Bengal and Assam. India has to find a way to talk about religious
demographics as other nations do — mostly without fuss, rancor or wild policy
suggestions. It is because Indian Muslims want to be part of main stream. No doubt, Muslims have higher fertility rates than
those in other religious groups. But, in
India, there is no clash of civilizations.
Indian Muslims are a part of Indian culture, as argued by the noted Islamic Scholar Mahmood Madanani.
“This is because of both India’s culture and its historical legacy. Muslim
heritage is a part of a larger tradition of multiculturalism and mutual
tolerance. [12]
The latest Census
data on religious communities provide an opportunity to plan and construct
suitable development interventions geared towards education, gender equity,
economic development and access to family planning, irrespective of culture or
religion, as noted by Poonam Muttreja, Executive
Director of Population Foundation.[13]
[1] For details, see:
“A note on the growing demographic imbalances in the Indian subcontinent” by
Dr. M.D. Srinivas, Centre for Policy Studies, Chennai, 1999.
[2] Refer my earlier
post:”Growing Population in India and Islam: Some Facts” at
http://kotharionindia.blogspot.in/2011/09/growing-population-in-india-and-islam.html.
[3] Refer TOI editorial: India needs to find a sane way to discuss
relative decline in Hindu population at
http://blogs.economictimes.indiatimes.com/toi-edit-page/india-needs-to-find-a-sane-way-to-discuss-relative-decline-in-hindu-population/
[4] For details, refer:
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/04/21/by-2050-india-to-have-worlds-largest-populations-of-hindus-and-muslims/
[5] Refer my earlier
post: ”Growing Population in India and Islam: Some Facts” at
http://kotharionindia.blogspot.in/2011/09/growing-population-in-india-and-islam.html.
[6]The standard
definition of unmet need depends upon the apparent inconsistency between a
woman’s contraceptive behavior and her stated reproductive preferences. The
concept of unmet need was highlighted first time in India in a study conducted
by the author in Rajasthan in 1988 on behalf of Ministry of Health and Family
Welfare, Government of India. Based on the field data, the study revealed that
there was sizable number of eligible couples that were not using contraceptive
methods but did not want another child.
For details, see Devendra Kothari, Family Planning Programme in Rajasthan: Beyond the Existing Approach,
Indian Institute of Health Management Research, Jaipur, 1989.
[7] Refer report
entitled: “The Future of the Global Muslim Population”, was part of a Pew Forum
program analyzing religious change and its impact on societies around the
world.
[8] In March 2005, the Government
of India appointed a high level committee to prepare a report on the social,
economic and educational status of Indian Muslims. The 7-member committee,
headed by Justice Rajinder Sachar (retired) submitted its report to the Prime
Minister in November 2006. The Sachar Committee’s report is an extremely
valuable document on the social, economic and educational status of Indian
Muslims.
[9] The government of India may soon
introduce an injectable contraceptive for women under the national family
planning program. The country's top drug advisory body has approved the
use of Deoxy Medroxy Progestrone Acetate (DMPA) and recommended its inclusion
in the government programme in September 2015. Though the proposal has garnered
acceptability in the MoHFW, it is awaiting a final official nod from the
ministry.
[10] Kothari, Devendra
and Sudha Tewari. 2009. “Slowing Population Growth in India: Challenges, Opportunities
and the Way Forward”. MIPD Policy Brief
No.2, Management Institute of Population and Development, a unit of Parivar
Seva Sanstha, New Delhi.
[11] Refer news item at:
http://www.dnaindia.com/mumbai/report-muslim-women-write-to-pm-modi-to-make-triple-talaq-polygamy-illegal-2149650
[12] Refer Mahmood
Madanani’s article: Islamic State Vs Islamic Ideals, Times of India, December
4, 2015.
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