Save the Earth: the Corona Pandemic warning (पृथ्वी बचाओ: कोरोना महामारी की चेतावनी)

 

                                                                                                                           Dr. Devendra Kothari

Population and Development Analyst

Forum for Population Action

 “Humans face risks that give no second chances — Covid-19 is a warning to us”

Toby Ord

The outbreak of novel coronavirus (Covid-19) has created an unprecedented situation around the world. A joint statement by ILO, FAO, IFAD and WHO, issued on 0ctober 13, 2020, stated that the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a dramatic loss of human life worldwide and presents an unprecedented challenge to human existence. The statement further states that millions of enterprises face an existential threat. As breadwinners lose jobs, fall ill and die, the food security and nutrition of millions of women and men are under threat, with those in low-income countries, particularly the most marginalized populations, which include small-scale farmers and informal workers, being hardest hit. 

Toby Ord, Senior Research Fellow at Oxford University’s Future of Humanity Institute, writes about the existential risks that now confront human beings. ”We face possible catastrophes which threaten the permanent destruction of humanity’s potential, such as human extinction or an unrecoverable collapse of civilization.” These are known as existential catastrophes. [1]  

 

Pandemics such as coronavirus are the result of humanity’s destruction of nature and the world has been ignoring this stark reality for decades. The Covid-19 pandemic may be considered as a reminder that there are ‘limits to growth’. With awareness of climate change, food insecurity and biodiversity decline on the radar, such a statement sounds reasonable. It is therefore considered the covid-19 as a subtle warning from a smart teacher- Mother Nature.

 

The authors of the iconic book - The Limits to Growth (LTG) did say this almost fifty years ago. The LTG is a 1972 report on the exponential economic and population growth with a finite supply of resources, studied by computer simulation. The study was commissioned by the Club of Rome. The study concluded that if the present trends in world population, industrialization, pollution, food production, and resource depletion continue unchanged, the limits to growth on this planet will be reached sometime within the next 100 years. 

Time is running out. Humans need to colonize another planet within 100 years or face the threat of extinction, high-profile physicist Stephen Hawking has warned us in a  BBC documentary called “Stephen Hawking: Expedition New Earth”[2] He stressed: “with climate change, overdue asteroid strikes, epidemics and population growth, our own planet is increasingly precarious.”

Previously, Hawking theorized that humanity probably has around 1,000 years left before it becomes extinct. His timeline appears now to have shortened.

Hawking is not the only major figure in the technology and science world that has warned about the threat to human existence. Earlier, Elon Musk (Tesla CEO) and Jack Ma (Founder of Alibaba) warned that society could because of the disruption caused by new technology (like AI) and the internet.

The Corona pandemic continues to convey roughly the same message today, but with slightly more urgency. Today, we are at a point in human history where habits that once worked well don’t work anymore,  argued by Dennis Meadows, one of the authors of the LTG, at the United Nations University recently.

The coronavirus is a reminder to us all of our weak state. Regardless of our social standing and our financial position, we are helpless. Situations like this remind me the preaching or sermon of Lord Krishna when he said to Arjuna    in Bhagavad Gita (Chapter IV, verses 7 and 8): "Whenever there is a decline in righteousness and an increase in unrighteousness, at that time I manifest myself on earth".  

Should we wait for God to clear the mess created by us? 

Instead of looking for ways to leave this planet, shouldn't we instead try and solve the problems that surround us? I'm not a scientist, but personally I feel as though leaving the planet or putting in preparations to leave is almost like giving up. 

As we step into 2021, humanity must   address the danger of its own existence by changing the way of living. Humanity must think seriously about the un-intellectual industrialization, urbanization, deforestation, environmental degradation, resource depletion, and population explosion. In sum, it is a warning that climate change is real and we must urgently reduce global warming. 

On the last day of the year 2020, one of my friends asked me: What is there to smile in the Corona year? No doubt, there was no satisfaction or happiness but much yearning. But if one thinks a little bit differently, you will find reasons to smile. 

The Bhagavad Gita emphasised: “Whatever happened, happened for the good. Whatever is happening, is happening for the good. Whatever will happen, will also happen for the good.” 

This applies so accurately to the present situation.  We must change our way of living which has become very manipulating to our selfish advantages.   Think how much we have damaged Mother Nature!  So change the way of living and you will find hundreds of reasons to smile. 

Time is running out. Virus attacks, disease epidemics and catastrophic climate change are fast approaching threats to our beautiful green and blue home.

 Wishing you a Happier New Year!

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[1] Ord, Toby (2020). The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity, Bloomsbury Publishing Company Limited. Also, refer at: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/humans-face-risks-that-give-no-second-chances-covid-19-is-a-warning-to-us/articleshow/80063414.cms 

[2] https://www.bbcstudios.com.au/shows/expedition-new-earth/  Also refer article by Arjun Kharpal of CNBC (2017) Stephen Hawking says humans must colonize another planet in 100 years or face extinction at: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/05/stephen-hawking-human-extinction-colonize-planet.html

 

 

 

 

Donald Trump’s defeat is actually a blessing in disguise for democracy

 

 

Dr. Devendra Kothari

Population and Development Analyst

Forum for Population Action

 

Donald Trump’s defeat in the election is a million times better for the US, a billion times for the rest of the world.

 

On January 20, 2017, I posted an article entitled: Why American elected Trump as President of USA? [1]  And, this post explores why Donald Trump lost

“LIBERAL democracies, while not exactly on the brink of a descent into fascism, are facing a period of crisis throughout the world,” wrote The Economist on the victory Donald Trump in the 2016 Presidential election.  [2]

 

There would be few to question 2020’s credentials as the year from hell. But towards its fag end the world’s luck could be turning, with the Biden-Harris ticket winning landmark US presidential elections that had the world at the edge of its seat.[3]

 

On November 3, 2020, when Americans went to the polls, many of us were praying that President Donald Trump should be defeated. His presidency (2016-2020) was dispensed with the notion that his talking points should bear any resemblance to truth, and he had routinely taken measures in office which had violated the spirit or letter of the law and constitution.

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[1]  Refer post by the author - Why American elected Trump as President of USA? at: https://www.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/3578136436068731910/2988296529100427376

 

[2] The Economist (Nov. 7, 2016).  How strong are the institutions of liberal societies? Refer at: https://www.economist.com/free-exchange/2016/11/07/how-strong-are-the-institutions-of-liberal-societies

 

[3] Refer article by Swagato Ganguly - Turning the corner: Disaster is averted with Joe Biden’s victory at: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/all-that-is-solid-melts/turning-the-corner-disaster-is-averted-with-joe-bidens-victory-but-donald-trump-has-changed-america/

 

India: the state of healthcare

 

Dr. Devendra Kothari

Population and Development Analyst

Forum for Population Action

 “At the moment, India is on the edge and it can take two routes. It can take a route of investing in health and investing in its people and creating a thriving and flourishing future for India which has a part to play in world affairs or  it can do what it is doing now and ignore health in which case it will see epidemics sweep across the country creating an unsustainable future and destroying national security.” 

Dr. Richard Charles Horton (2018)

The Lancet's editor-in-chief

 Healthcare has the potential to lead to economic growth and to alleviate poverty. It is because health is a relative state in which one is able to function well physically, mentally, socially, and spiritually in order to express the full range of one’s unique potentialities within the environment in which he/she is living. In other words, “health is primarily a measure of each person’s ability to do and become what she wants to become.”   It is, therefore, an important component of human capital formation responsible for the higher level of productivity. It can enhance workers’ productivity by increasing their physical capacities, such as strength and endurance, as well as their mental capacities, such as cognitive functioning and reasoning ability.

By the dawn of the 21^st century, non-communicable diseases are sweeping the entire globe, with an increasing trend in developing countries like India where, the transition imposes more constraints to deal with the double burden of infective (communicable) and non-infective (non-communicable) diseases in a poor environment characterised by ill-public health systems. That may be the reason, why the world's most revered medical journal - The Lancet - has censured severely Government of India for ignoring health sector and has warned that India is on the “verge of a collapse under the weight of its own ill health”.[1]

 

One of the serious negative impacts of this situation will be the slow formation of human capital. Available literature reveals a positive relationship between health and productivity for both unskilled and skilled workers, and evidence of this link is increasing at the microeconomic level.

 

So it is generally said that health is wealth.  To be healthy and fit one needs to eat properly and live in a hygienic or clean environment. Because living in polluted and dirty area impacts negatively on health. In addition, availability of basic health services is fundamental in improving the health outcomes.   It means health in a broader sense includes not only health services but also sanitation. A growing body of research has documented the positive impact of health and sanitation on earnings and economic growth by raising the productivity. 

Although India’s productivity improvements are impressive, the process of catch-up with other developing/ developed nations still has a long way to go. India's labour productivity is about 40 per cent of that of China. In fact, India recorded one of the lowest productivity in the world. There are many reasons behind this slow growth in the labour productivity including a sluggish progress in achieving the mission of “Health for All”.

The paper discusses a variety of mechanisms through which the vision of ‘Health for All’ (HFA) or Universal Health Care (UHC) could be achieved within a decade. The positive health outcomes ultimately contribute to better educational outcomes and a more productive and higher-skilled labor force. India, therefore, must convert its young population to a competitive advantage.

 

Emerging health scenario: India’s current state of health is appalling as brought out by the coronavirus pandemic and the lockdown it triggered. The data released by the MoHFW indicates that it had severe impact on routine health care services. Several national goals, including the programme to treat TB, malaria and non-communicable diseases such as heart diseases, diabetes and cancer, has suffered a severe setback.

 

The ministry figures have revealed the enormous price incurred in healthcare deficits by non-COVID patients between April and June, 2020 compared to the same period last year. Immunisation dropped 27 per cent, institutional deliveries 28 per cent, major surgeries fell 60 per cent, outpatient treatment for heart ailments and cancer by over 70 per cent, and 51 per cent  fewer acute cardiac emergencies were performed. Treatment for ailments like tuberculosis, diabetes and asthma, screening of newborns for birth defects etc were also badly affected. 

 

It appears that the Indian healthcare structure is not geared up enough to face the unexpected calamities, which are going to be a frequent phenomenon in coming times due to climate change and arising poverty. More than half of the 1.4 billion people are poor and the income inequality is widening.

 The pollution is the leading environmental cause of death in India. The US-based Health Effect Institute (HEI) paints a grim picture for India. Overall long-term exposure to outdoor and household air pollution contributed to over 1.67 million annual deaths from stroke, heart attack, diabetes, lung cancer, chronic lung diseases, and neonatal diseases in India in 2019. The pollution also contributed to the deaths of more than 1, 16,000 Indian infants in their first month of life last year. More than half of these deaths were related with outdoor PM2.5. Air pollution deaths in India are the highest among the South Asian countries – it is 9 times higher than neighbouring Bangladesh and 8 times higher than Pakistan.

In addition, India faces a double curse on the disease front: lifestyle diseases that are the bane of the rich world, as well as the traditional communicable diseases of the developing world, as reported by the study entitled: Health of the Nation’s States: India State-Level Disease Burden.[2]  The key metric used for calculating the burden of diseases is disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which is the sum of the number of years of life lost due to premature death and a weighted measure of the years lived with disability due to a disease or injury.

Of the total disease burden in India measured as DALYs, 61 per cent was due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (termed infectious and associated diseases in this summary for simplicity) in 1990, which dropped to 28 per cent in 2016. There was a corresponding increase in the contribution of non-communicable diseases from 30 per cent of the total disease burden in 1990 to 62 per cent in 2016, and of injuries including suicides from 9 per cent to 10 per cent.

While the burden of most infectious and associated diseases has reduced in India from 1990 to 2016, five of the ten individual leading causes of disease burden in India in 2016 still belonged to this group: diarrheal-diseases, lower respiratory infections, iron-deficiency anemia, preterm birth complications, and tuberculosis. According to the National Health Profile 2019, over 50 per cent of all deaths due to communicable diseases in 2018 were because of respiratory diseases and pneumonia. As a result, deaths from communicable diseases in India are much higher than the global average, latest data from the Global Burden of Disease Study shows.

 

The burden caused by these conditions generally continues to be much higher in the eight socioeconomically less developed states of Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Rajasthan, Uttaranchal and Uttar Pradesh, referred to as the Empowered Action Group (EAG) states  than in the other states, but there are  notable variations between the states within these groups as well.

The contribution of most of the major non-communicable disease groups to the total disease burden has increased all over India since 1990, including cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, chronic respiratory diseases, mental health and neurological disorders, cancers, musculoskeletal disorders, and chronic kidney disease, having greater impact on productivity. Among the leading non-communicable diseases, the largest disease burden or DALY rate increase from 1990 to 2016 was observed for diabetes, at 80 per cent, and ischaemic heart disease, at 34 per cent.

The contribution of injuries, which includes road injuries, suicides and non-fatal outcomes of self-harm, to the total disease burden has increased in most states since 1990. The highest proportion of disease burden due to injuries is in young adults. 

In sum, one can draw the conclusion that India at present faces a combination of communicable diseases and non-communicable, with the burden of chronic diseases has exceeded that of communicable diseases. Projections nevertheless indicate that communicable diseases will still occupy a critically important position up to 2030 or even 2040. 

India's position in the middle of the transition from a poor, healthcare-deficient country to an advanced country is brought out starkly when compared with examples from other countries. In Niger, one of the poorest countries in the world, with a per capita gross domestic product less than one-fifth of India's, eight of the top ten causes of death are communicable diseases. At the other extreme, Norway, with per capita gross domestic product over ten times that of India, has just one communicable disease — lower respiratory tract infections — among its top ten, with the other nine being non-communicable diseases. 

China, which started off from conditions similar to India, has moved much further towards the advanced end of the transition. It too has only one infectious disease among its top ten causes of death. 

In conclusion, while the disease burden rate in India has improved since 1990, it was 72 per cent higher per person than in Sri Lanka or China in 2017. It means India has failed to achieve in healthcare goals, badly lagging behind China, Sri Lanka and even Bangladesh in terms of accessibility and quality. 

To put things in perspective, the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study published in the Lancet said that “newborns in India have a lesser chance of survival than babies born in Afghanistan and Somalia”.

 

In the GBD rankings for healthcare access and quality (HAQ), India has fallen 11 places as compared to last year, and now ranked 154 out of 195 countries in 2017, far behind its neighbours like China (48), Sri Lanka (71), Bangladesh (133), and Bhutan (134). In 2016, India was ranked 143 among 188 countries. 

The preceding discussion underline the urgent need to improve both access to and quality of health care across service areas and for all populations; otherwise, health systems could face widening gaps between the health services they provide and the disease burden experienced by local communities. Moreover, our policymakers have to mark that why ‘one size fits all’ doesn’t work in health and education. 

What does India need to do to create a vibrant, dynamic and progressive 21st century public health system, as will be discussed t in the next post?

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[1] Refer at: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Brtish-medical-journal-Lancet-to-take-Modi-to-task-for-ignoring-health-sector/articleshow/49484703.cms. 

[2] Health of the Nation's States - The India State-level Disease Burden Initiative. New Delhi, India: ICMR, PHFI, and IHME; 2017.

 

Declining Hindu and Muslim fertility gap: what is it pointing?

 

Dr. Devendra Kothari

Population and Development Analyst

Forum for Population Action

If the economy is allowed to develop unimpeded, the Hindu-Muslim population issue must be discussed thoroughly.

 

Differential population growth and fertility rates by religion are a major political issue in India. There is a widespread feeling that the main cause of population explosion in India is the   higher fertility among Muslims as compared to other religious groups, especially Hindus. Further, it is often argued that the growing demographic imbalances in India should indeed be a matter of serious concern as they seem to have serious repercussions on the very survival of the ‘Indian civilisation’. 

Whether we agree or not, I strongly believe that unless we resolve a far-flung impression that Muslims are responsible for India's population explosion, it will have serious implications for socio-economic development by creating unnecessary tensions. In addition, it will affect everything from efforts toward a uniform civil code to the debate about religious conversions to assumptions about Indian secularism.   A national debate, therefore, is urgently called for to step up to resolve the issue. This article aims in this direction.

 

Population explosion is an age-old issue in India, but it has gained traction once again after Prime Minister Narendra Modi mentioned it in his Independence Day speech (2019). PM Modi, known to generally celebrate India’s “demographic dividend”, expressed concern at a “betahasa jansankhya bisfot” (reckless population explosion) and stressed the need for government action to control the situation. The announcement drew mixed reactions. The Congress leader P. Chidambaram cheered it. On the other hand, some BJP leaders sniffed in the announcement a signal of the government’s intention to enact some kind of legislation to control the Muslim population.  The BJP and RSS leaders have for years been blaming Muslims for the purported spurt in the country’s population and raising the bogey of the community eventually outnumbering Hindus in the country.[1] In fact, a few politicians from the ruling party have used the PM speech to exhort Hindu women to birth at least four children.

 

But, based on the official data, this narrative does not hold water. The National Family Health Survey (NFHS) has shown that over the past 24 years, new-generation Muslim families have done a better job at family planning, though their statistical figures still trail Hindu families.

The decadal census is the largest data collection exercise carried out by the government to assess not only the growth of the population but also other socio-economic indicators. The 2011 Census of India was the 15th in a series of censuses held in India every decade since the first complete census was taken in 1881.The next Census of India, the 16th Indian Census, was to be taken in 2021. It has, however, been delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 

In the absence of the latest information, the author has projected the data for the decade 2011-21 based on the various sources with special reference to the National Family Health Survey-4 (2015-16).  The NFHS is a large-scale multi-round survey conducted in a representative sample of households throughout India under the guidance of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, GoI. The primary aim of the NFHS has been to provide information on maternal and child health and reproductive health. Four rounds of the NFHS were conducted in 1992-93, 2005-06, 1998-99 and 2015-16. 

Let us consider some plain facts: 

Will Muslims outnumber Hindus in India in the near future? The Census 2011 data shows that since the census 1951, the share of Hindus has dropped by 4.3 percentage points from 84.1 per cent to 79.8 per cent of the total population in 2011 while the share of Muslims has risen by 4.4 percentage points from 9.8 per cent (no Census was conducted in the JK in 1951) to 14.2 per cent in the corresponding period. Hindus comprised just about 66 per cent of the population of India before partition in 1947. It is interesting to note that the projected figure shows a slight increase in the share of Hindu Population in 2021 as compared to 2011: 80.3 per cent versus 79.80 per cent.  The data from the NFHS-4 also collaborated this trend (refer last row of Table 1) 

Table 1 Trends in Population of India by religion – 2051-2021

Religion	Hinduism	Islam	Christianity	Sikhism	Jainism	others
1951	84.10	9.80	2.30	1.79	0.45	1.86
1961	83.45	10.69	2.44	1.79	0.46	1.17
1971	82.73	11.21	2.60	1.89	0.48	1.12
1981	82.30	11.75	2.44	1.92	0.47	1.12
1991	81.53	12.61	2.32	1.94	0.40	1.20
2001	80.46	13.43	2.34	1.87	0.41	1.55
2011	79.80	14.23	2.30	1.72	0.37	1.51
*2021 (projected)	80.30	14.61	2.25	1.63	0.36	0.85
% of total  households NFHS-4 (2015-16)	81.4	12.5	2.7	1.6	0.2	1.6
*Projected figures for the year 2021 are based on various sources like. NFHS-4 (2015-16), Population Reference Bureau and United National Population Division. Also refer: The Future Population of India, Population Foundation of India, New Delhi (2007). Devendra Kothari (2011) Implications of Emerging Demographic Scenario, A Brief, MIPD, Parivar Seva Sanstha, New Delhi. Source: Census of India, and National Family Health Survey-4 (2015-16)

In absolute terms, the Hindu population has increased more than three times from 304 million in 1951 to 966 million during the last 60 years till 2011. On the other hand, during the corresponding period, the Muslim population increased from 34 million in 1951 to 172 million in 2011 that are more than five times (Table 2).

 

The drop in share of Hindus, due to a steady dip in the rate of growth of the Hindu population, comes on the back of rising education and income levels of the majority community

 

 Table 2   Absolute population increase in million by religion, 2001-2021

Religion	Census 1951	Census 2001	Census 2011	Projected 2021*
Hindu	303.6	828.3	965.6	1117.0
Muslim	34.4	137.9	171.8	203.1
Christian	8.3	23.7	27.8	30.6
Sikh	6.5	19.6	20.6	20.8
Buddhist	2.8	8.2	8.5	8.3
Jain	1.6	4.1	4.8	5.2
Others	3.8	7.2	10.9	6.0
Total	361	1029	1210	1391
Source: Table 1

As such, there is a sense of paranoia that if the Muslim population is allowed to increase   it will overtake the population of Hindus in coming years. Before we resolve the issue, let us discuss what has happened in the first decade of 21^st century. Before the Union Home Ministry released Census 2011 data on Population by Religious Communities on 21 Jan, 2015, it was widely believed that the data would point to a significant growth in Muslim population in India, which really forced the UPA to postpone its publication. However, the population growth rate of various religions has come down in the decade (2001-2011). Hindu population growth rate slowed down to 16.76  per cent from previous decade figure of 19.92 per cent while Muslim witness sharp fall in growth rate to 24.60 per cent in 2001-2011 from the previous figure of 29.52   per cent (Table 3). Such an abrupt fall in population growth rate for Muslims didn't happen in the last 6 decades. This was a positive outcome of the Census 2011, which nobody has taken seriously.

The Growth rate of Hindus, Muslims and Christian is expected to fall further in the upcoming 2021 census while other religions like Sikhism, Jainism and Buddhism are expected to remain stable for next 2 decades considering the already slowed down growth rate of these religions. In fact, in absolute numbers, the Jain population may decline. 

According to the projected figures the Hindu population growth rate will go down further to 15.7 per cent from previous decade figure of 16.8 per cent while the Muslim population   may witness another sharp fall in growth rate to 18.2 per cent from the previous figure of 24.60 per cent, as shown in Table 3. One can notice difference between Hindu and Muslim population is narrowing fast. I believe that gap will further decrease in the Census 2031. 

  Table 3 Hindus versus Muslims: Trends in decadal population growth

Year	Trends in decadal population growth  in percentage
Year	Muslim	Hindu	Difference
1981-1991	32.9	22.8	10.1
1991-2001	29.3	20.0	9.3
2001-2011	24.6	16.8	7.8
2011-2021 (Projected)	18.2	15.7	2.5
Source: Census of India. Also  see footnote of Table 1

So there is no sense of talking that Muslims will overtake Hindus, as argued by the many right wing politicians. Minorities in India, much like in the United States, are not really anywhere close to being dominant and the fear of any “Muslim takeover in India” was baseless, as noted by the 2019 Economics Nobel-winner Abhijit Banerjee. [2]  

Now there is a big question why the Muslim population is growing slowly? There are many factors behind this unexpected trend but two factors are very important: Emerging middle class and declining fertility.

 

The National Family Health Survey (NFHS) has shown that over the past 24 years, new-generation Muslim families have done a better job at family planning, though their statistical figures still trail the Hindu families. 

In India, a small, emerging yet visible Muslim middle class has surfaced, “breaking the perception of a monolithic impoverished community”, as noted by Ashwaq Masoodi, the Nirman Fellow at Harvard University.[3] For example, the NFHS-4 shows that even though, among all religions, the presence of Muslims in the highest wealth quintile (top 20%) of the country is still the lowest, the share has gone up (while 17.2% of the total Muslim population fell in the top wealth bracket in 2005-06, it inched up to 18.8% by 2015-16). Even though in mid 1990s the community realized the importance of education, as documented by several researchers including Anwar Alam, senior fellow at the Policy Prospective Foundation, a Delhi-based think tank, it wasn’t a dramatic move. Instead some chose hybridized education, which meant that more and more Madrasas had to slowly modernize themselves to include English and computer training in their curriculum. Hence, while they were getting educated, they were enrolled in the “modern secular education system", and so this shift in mindset was reflected in the total fertility.

The share of Muslim men who have studied at least up to Class XII doubled in the decade ending in 2016, according to the NFHS. The educational status of Muslim women improved much faster than the men, though the share of women who have gotten past Class XII still remains at slightly below 15 per cent. 

A widely used measure of fertility levels is the ‘total fertility rate’, or the average number of children a woman will have in her lifetime. According to the first NFHS 1992-93), this figure was 4.3 children for Muslims and 3.3 children for Hindus, or a fertility gap of 30.3 per cent or one child per woman.   Latest NFHS-4 data shows that this gap has narrowed to 20.5 per cent in 2015-16, a difference of half a birth on average per woman, even as both communities are having fewer children than before (Table 4).

 

Table 4 Trend in number of children per women (Total Fertility Rate)

NFHS	Muslims	Hindus	Difference
1992-93 (NFHS-1)	4.30	3.30	1.00
1998-99 (NFHS-2)	3.59	2.78	0.81
2005-06 (NFHS-3)	3.09	2.65	0.44
2015-16 (NFHS-4)	2.61	2.13	0.48
Source: National Family Health Survey 1, 2, 3 and 4, IIPS, Mumbai.

Even when Muslim fertility is declining, the fertility gap would not narrow until the Hindu fertility level reached to replacement level. In demography, it is considered to be 2.1 children per woman. The former Director of IIPS and a known demographer P.N. Mari Bhat had projected that Hindus will achieve replacement fertility by 2021 and a stable population by 2061; Muslims will achieve replacement fertility by 2031 and population stabilization by 2101, and will account for 18.8 per cent of India’s population then. Bhat’s 2011 projections are extremely close to NFHS-4 figures.  So there are no chances that Muslims will overtake Hindus. 

Of course, we do not know that the rapidly declining fertility of Muslim women will continue. It would not be surprising if Muslim fertility stabilized at a higher level than non-Muslim fertility in India. As a result, Muslims may maintain a population growth rate somewhat higher than other groups and their percentage of India’s population might slowly grow. It is because the use of modern methods of contraceptive is low among Muslims as compared to others.  Religious differences in the use of modern contraception, based on the latest NFHS-4 data, clearly indicate the prevalence rate of modern contraception is the highest among Sikhs (65%) and lowest among Muslims (38%). Around 54 per cent of Hindus are protected by any modern method like sterilization, pill, IUD, condom among others (Table 4), which are available in the official programme.  The prevalence of sterilization does not differ much among most religious groups, except for the fact that it is very low among Muslims. The proportion of women and men who have been sterilized is twice as high for Hindus as for Muslims (Table 4, Column 3).

In spite of poverty and illiteracy, the prevailing unmet need for modern  family planning services is surprising, especially among Muslims.  As compared to Hindu women, Muslim women have high level of unmet need for family planning services, (12 % versus 16%), as per NFHS-4 (Table 5, Column 4).  It means that Muslim women in general do not want more children, yet they have them due to several other factors.[4] 

Table 4 India: Current use of contraception and unmet need for contraception by religion, 2015-16

Religion	% of couples (15-49 yrs) protected by  any modern method	% of couples (15-49 yrs) protected by sterilization	% of couples (15-49 yrs) having unmet need for any modern method
1	2	3	4
Hindu	54.4	38.5	12.4
Muslim	37.9	20.9	16.4
Christian	47.9	40.4	12.9
Sikh	65.4	38.9	06.4
Jain	57.6	39.4	12.1
Total	47.8	36.0	12.9
Source: National Family Health Survey-4, IIPS, Mumbai.

So, what should be the agenda? The only major religion left out of the demographic transition in India is Islam. And this group could be helped by providing family planning services, as happened in Bangladesh and Indonesia.  Muslim scholars believe that the permanent method of contraception is not permitted in Islam. So India has to diversify its approach to include other modern methods of contraception including injectables with quality in its programme like Bangladesh and Indonesia. Unfortunately, the Sachar Committee did not give importance to the concept of the reproductive health in its recommendations to improve the overall conditions of Muslims in India.[5] 

India has to find a way to talk about religious demographics as other nations do — mostly without fuss, rancor or wild policy suggestions. It is because Indian Muslims want to be part of mainstream. No doubt, Muslims have higher fertility rates than those in other religious groups.  But, in India, there is no clash of civilizations.  Indian Muslims are a part of Indian culture, as argued by the   noted Islamic Scholar Mahmood Madani. “This is because of both India’s culture and its historical legacy. Muslim heritage is a part of a larger tradition of multiculturalism and mutual tolerance. [6]

In conclusion, Islam will surely not 'overtake' Hinduism in India, but Hindutva might overtake Hinduism. Anyone with little knowledge of Basic Mathematics can calculate that if Hindus don’t produce any offspring and on the contrary if Muslims only give birth to children, then the religious demography would tip off towards a Muslim majority not before 2170.Is this practical or reasonable for commonsense? 

This kind of comic theories like Muslim Majority India are circulated and floated by vested interests with bad thoughts and intentions, I don’t understand for how long common Indians would fall for such cruel theories, people not only should refrain from such fake news, they should revert back to such people who circulate and make them understand that the root cause of all such fake news are dangerous minds.

I think that the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW), Government of India must address this issue squarely, and the authorities have to accept that there is a problem in the management of family planning programme and resolve it.[7]  Sound indicators are emerging that Hindu and Muslim fertility is merging 

 Matters cannot be shoved under the carpet now.

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[1] For details, see: “A note on the growing demographic imbalances in the Indian subcontinent” by Dr. M.D. Srinivas, Centre for Policy Studies, Chennai, 1999. 

[2] Read more at:

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/73682076.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst 

[3] Masoodi (2019). “Joining the India story: Rise of the Muslim middle”, mint. Read more at: https://www.livemint.com/politics/news/joining-the-india-story-rise-of-the-muslim-middle-1548262657277.html

[4] Kothari, Devendra (2015), India: Resolving Hindu-Muslim population controversies at: https://kotharionindia.blogspot.com/2015/11/

 [5] The Government of India appointed a high level committee to prepare a report on the social, economic and educational status of Indian Muslims. The 7-member committee, headed by Justice Rajinder Sachar (retired) submitted its report to the Prime Minister in November 2006. The Sachar Committee’s report is an extremely valuable document on the social, economic and educational status of Indian Muslims.

[6] Madani, Mahmood A. 2015.  “Islamic State Vs Islamic Ideals” at: https://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/toi-edit-page/islamic-state-vs-islamic-ideals-there-is-no-clash-of-civilizations-and-terrorism-isnt-jihad/

 [7] Kothari, Devendra. 2014. “Managing Unwanted Fertility in India: Way Forward,” in Sharma Suresh and Joe William (eds.):   National Rural Health Mission: An Unfinished Agenda, New Delhi: Book Well: 25-36.