Declining Hindu and Muslim fertility gap: what is it pointing?

 

Dr. Devendra Kothari

Population and Development Analyst

Forum for Population Action

If the economy is allowed to develop unimpeded, the Hindu-Muslim population issue must be discussed thoroughly.

 

Differential population growth and fertility rates by religion are a major political issue in India. There is a widespread feeling that the main cause of population explosion in India is the   higher fertility among Muslims as compared to other religious groups, especially Hindus. Further, it is often argued that the growing demographic imbalances in India should indeed be a matter of serious concern as they seem to have serious repercussions on the very survival of the ‘Indian civilisation’. 

Whether we agree or not, I strongly believe that unless we resolve a far-flung impression that Muslims are responsible for India's population explosion, it will have serious implications for socio-economic development by creating unnecessary tensions. In addition, it will affect everything from efforts toward a uniform civil code to the debate about religious conversions to assumptions about Indian secularism.   A national debate, therefore, is urgently called for to step up to resolve the issue. This article aims in this direction.

 

Population explosion is an age-old issue in India, but it has gained traction once again after Prime Minister Narendra Modi mentioned it in his Independence Day speech (2019). PM Modi, known to generally celebrate India’s “demographic dividend”, expressed concern at a “betahasa jansankhya bisfot” (reckless population explosion) and stressed the need for government action to control the situation. The announcement drew mixed reactions. The Congress leader P. Chidambaram cheered it. On the other hand, some BJP leaders sniffed in the announcement a signal of the government’s intention to enact some kind of legislation to control the Muslim population.  The BJP and RSS leaders have for years been blaming Muslims for the purported spurt in the country’s population and raising the bogey of the community eventually outnumbering Hindus in the country.[1] In fact, a few politicians from the ruling party have used the PM speech to exhort Hindu women to birth at least four children.

 

But, based on the official data, this narrative does not hold water. The National Family Health Survey (NFHS) has shown that over the past 24 years, new-generation Muslim families have done a better job at family planning, though their statistical figures still trail Hindu families.

The decadal census is the largest data collection exercise carried out by the government to assess not only the growth of the population but also other socio-economic indicators. The 2011 Census of India was the 15th in a series of censuses held in India every decade since the first complete census was taken in 1881.The next Census of India, the 16th Indian Census, was to be taken in 2021. It has, however, been delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 

In the absence of the latest information, the author has projected the data for the decade 2011-21 based on the various sources with special reference to the National Family Health Survey-4 (2015-16).  The NFHS is a large-scale multi-round survey conducted in a representative sample of households throughout India under the guidance of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, GoI. The primary aim of the NFHS has been to provide information on maternal and child health and reproductive health. Four rounds of the NFHS were conducted in 1992-93, 2005-06, 1998-99 and 2015-16. 

Let us consider some plain facts: 

Will Muslims outnumber Hindus in India in the near future? The Census 2011 data shows that since the census 1951, the share of Hindus has dropped by 4.3 percentage points from 84.1 per cent to 79.8 per cent of the total population in 2011 while the share of Muslims has risen by 4.4 percentage points from 9.8 per cent (no Census was conducted in the JK in 1951) to 14.2 per cent in the corresponding period. Hindus comprised just about 66 per cent of the population of India before partition in 1947. It is interesting to note that the projected figure shows a slight increase in the share of Hindu Population in 2021 as compared to 2011: 80.3 per cent versus 79.80 per cent.  The data from the NFHS-4 also collaborated this trend (refer last row of Table 1) 

Table 1 Trends in Population of India by religion – 2051-2021

Religion	Hinduism	Islam	Christianity	Sikhism	Jainism	others
1951	84.10	9.80	2.30	1.79	0.45	1.86
1961	83.45	10.69	2.44	1.79	0.46	1.17
1971	82.73	11.21	2.60	1.89	0.48	1.12
1981	82.30	11.75	2.44	1.92	0.47	1.12
1991	81.53	12.61	2.32	1.94	0.40	1.20
2001	80.46	13.43	2.34	1.87	0.41	1.55
2011	79.80	14.23	2.30	1.72	0.37	1.51
*2021 (projected)	80.30	14.61	2.25	1.63	0.36	0.85
% of total  households NFHS-4 (2015-16)	81.4	12.5	2.7	1.6	0.2	1.6
*Projected figures for the year 2021 are based on various sources like. NFHS-4 (2015-16), Population Reference Bureau and United National Population Division. Also refer: The Future Population of India, Population Foundation of India, New Delhi (2007). Devendra Kothari (2011) Implications of Emerging Demographic Scenario, A Brief, MIPD, Parivar Seva Sanstha, New Delhi. Source: Census of India, and National Family Health Survey-4 (2015-16)

In absolute terms, the Hindu population has increased more than three times from 304 million in 1951 to 966 million during the last 60 years till 2011. On the other hand, during the corresponding period, the Muslim population increased from 34 million in 1951 to 172 million in 2011 that are more than five times (Table 2).

 

The drop in share of Hindus, due to a steady dip in the rate of growth of the Hindu population, comes on the back of rising education and income levels of the majority community

 

 Table 2   Absolute population increase in million by religion, 2001-2021

Religion	Census 1951	Census 2001	Census 2011	Projected 2021*
Hindu	303.6	828.3	965.6	1117.0
Muslim	34.4	137.9	171.8	203.1
Christian	8.3	23.7	27.8	30.6
Sikh	6.5	19.6	20.6	20.8
Buddhist	2.8	8.2	8.5	8.3
Jain	1.6	4.1	4.8	5.2
Others	3.8	7.2	10.9	6.0
Total	361	1029	1210	1391
Source: Table 1

As such, there is a sense of paranoia that if the Muslim population is allowed to increase   it will overtake the population of Hindus in coming years. Before we resolve the issue, let us discuss what has happened in the first decade of 21^st century. Before the Union Home Ministry released Census 2011 data on Population by Religious Communities on 21 Jan, 2015, it was widely believed that the data would point to a significant growth in Muslim population in India, which really forced the UPA to postpone its publication. However, the population growth rate of various religions has come down in the decade (2001-2011). Hindu population growth rate slowed down to 16.76  per cent from previous decade figure of 19.92 per cent while Muslim witness sharp fall in growth rate to 24.60 per cent in 2001-2011 from the previous figure of 29.52   per cent (Table 3). Such an abrupt fall in population growth rate for Muslims didn't happen in the last 6 decades. This was a positive outcome of the Census 2011, which nobody has taken seriously.

The Growth rate of Hindus, Muslims and Christian is expected to fall further in the upcoming 2021 census while other religions like Sikhism, Jainism and Buddhism are expected to remain stable for next 2 decades considering the already slowed down growth rate of these religions. In fact, in absolute numbers, the Jain population may decline. 

According to the projected figures the Hindu population growth rate will go down further to 15.7 per cent from previous decade figure of 16.8 per cent while the Muslim population   may witness another sharp fall in growth rate to 18.2 per cent from the previous figure of 24.60 per cent, as shown in Table 3. One can notice difference between Hindu and Muslim population is narrowing fast. I believe that gap will further decrease in the Census 2031. 

  Table 3 Hindus versus Muslims: Trends in decadal population growth

Year	Trends in decadal population growth  in percentage
Year	Muslim	Hindu	Difference
1981-1991	32.9	22.8	10.1
1991-2001	29.3	20.0	9.3
2001-2011	24.6	16.8	7.8
2011-2021 (Projected)	18.2	15.7	2.5
Source: Census of India. Also  see footnote of Table 1

So there is no sense of talking that Muslims will overtake Hindus, as argued by the many right wing politicians. Minorities in India, much like in the United States, are not really anywhere close to being dominant and the fear of any “Muslim takeover in India” was baseless, as noted by the 2019 Economics Nobel-winner Abhijit Banerjee. [2]  

Now there is a big question why the Muslim population is growing slowly? There are many factors behind this unexpected trend but two factors are very important: Emerging middle class and declining fertility.

 

The National Family Health Survey (NFHS) has shown that over the past 24 years, new-generation Muslim families have done a better job at family planning, though their statistical figures still trail the Hindu families. 

In India, a small, emerging yet visible Muslim middle class has surfaced, “breaking the perception of a monolithic impoverished community”, as noted by Ashwaq Masoodi, the Nirman Fellow at Harvard University.[3] For example, the NFHS-4 shows that even though, among all religions, the presence of Muslims in the highest wealth quintile (top 20%) of the country is still the lowest, the share has gone up (while 17.2% of the total Muslim population fell in the top wealth bracket in 2005-06, it inched up to 18.8% by 2015-16). Even though in mid 1990s the community realized the importance of education, as documented by several researchers including Anwar Alam, senior fellow at the Policy Prospective Foundation, a Delhi-based think tank, it wasn’t a dramatic move. Instead some chose hybridized education, which meant that more and more Madrasas had to slowly modernize themselves to include English and computer training in their curriculum. Hence, while they were getting educated, they were enrolled in the “modern secular education system", and so this shift in mindset was reflected in the total fertility.

The share of Muslim men who have studied at least up to Class XII doubled in the decade ending in 2016, according to the NFHS. The educational status of Muslim women improved much faster than the men, though the share of women who have gotten past Class XII still remains at slightly below 15 per cent. 

A widely used measure of fertility levels is the ‘total fertility rate’, or the average number of children a woman will have in her lifetime. According to the first NFHS 1992-93), this figure was 4.3 children for Muslims and 3.3 children for Hindus, or a fertility gap of 30.3 per cent or one child per woman.   Latest NFHS-4 data shows that this gap has narrowed to 20.5 per cent in 2015-16, a difference of half a birth on average per woman, even as both communities are having fewer children than before (Table 4).

 

Table 4 Trend in number of children per women (Total Fertility Rate)

NFHS	Muslims	Hindus	Difference
1992-93 (NFHS-1)	4.30	3.30	1.00
1998-99 (NFHS-2)	3.59	2.78	0.81
2005-06 (NFHS-3)	3.09	2.65	0.44
2015-16 (NFHS-4)	2.61	2.13	0.48
Source: National Family Health Survey 1, 2, 3 and 4, IIPS, Mumbai.

Even when Muslim fertility is declining, the fertility gap would not narrow until the Hindu fertility level reached to replacement level. In demography, it is considered to be 2.1 children per woman. The former Director of IIPS and a known demographer P.N. Mari Bhat had projected that Hindus will achieve replacement fertility by 2021 and a stable population by 2061; Muslims will achieve replacement fertility by 2031 and population stabilization by 2101, and will account for 18.8 per cent of India’s population then. Bhat’s 2011 projections are extremely close to NFHS-4 figures.  So there are no chances that Muslims will overtake Hindus. 

Of course, we do not know that the rapidly declining fertility of Muslim women will continue. It would not be surprising if Muslim fertility stabilized at a higher level than non-Muslim fertility in India. As a result, Muslims may maintain a population growth rate somewhat higher than other groups and their percentage of India’s population might slowly grow. It is because the use of modern methods of contraceptive is low among Muslims as compared to others.  Religious differences in the use of modern contraception, based on the latest NFHS-4 data, clearly indicate the prevalence rate of modern contraception is the highest among Sikhs (65%) and lowest among Muslims (38%). Around 54 per cent of Hindus are protected by any modern method like sterilization, pill, IUD, condom among others (Table 4), which are available in the official programme.  The prevalence of sterilization does not differ much among most religious groups, except for the fact that it is very low among Muslims. The proportion of women and men who have been sterilized is twice as high for Hindus as for Muslims (Table 4, Column 3).

In spite of poverty and illiteracy, the prevailing unmet need for modern  family planning services is surprising, especially among Muslims.  As compared to Hindu women, Muslim women have high level of unmet need for family planning services, (12 % versus 16%), as per NFHS-4 (Table 5, Column 4).  It means that Muslim women in general do not want more children, yet they have them due to several other factors.[4] 

Table 4 India: Current use of contraception and unmet need for contraception by religion, 2015-16

Religion	% of couples (15-49 yrs) protected by  any modern method	% of couples (15-49 yrs) protected by sterilization	% of couples (15-49 yrs) having unmet need for any modern method
1	2	3	4
Hindu	54.4	38.5	12.4
Muslim	37.9	20.9	16.4
Christian	47.9	40.4	12.9
Sikh	65.4	38.9	06.4
Jain	57.6	39.4	12.1
Total	47.8	36.0	12.9
Source: National Family Health Survey-4, IIPS, Mumbai.

So, what should be the agenda? The only major religion left out of the demographic transition in India is Islam. And this group could be helped by providing family planning services, as happened in Bangladesh and Indonesia.  Muslim scholars believe that the permanent method of contraception is not permitted in Islam. So India has to diversify its approach to include other modern methods of contraception including injectables with quality in its programme like Bangladesh and Indonesia. Unfortunately, the Sachar Committee did not give importance to the concept of the reproductive health in its recommendations to improve the overall conditions of Muslims in India.[5] 

India has to find a way to talk about religious demographics as other nations do — mostly without fuss, rancor or wild policy suggestions. It is because Indian Muslims want to be part of mainstream. No doubt, Muslims have higher fertility rates than those in other religious groups.  But, in India, there is no clash of civilizations.  Indian Muslims are a part of Indian culture, as argued by the   noted Islamic Scholar Mahmood Madani. “This is because of both India’s culture and its historical legacy. Muslim heritage is a part of a larger tradition of multiculturalism and mutual tolerance. [6]

In conclusion, Islam will surely not 'overtake' Hinduism in India, but Hindutva might overtake Hinduism. Anyone with little knowledge of Basic Mathematics can calculate that if Hindus don’t produce any offspring and on the contrary if Muslims only give birth to children, then the religious demography would tip off towards a Muslim majority not before 2170.Is this practical or reasonable for commonsense? 

This kind of comic theories like Muslim Majority India are circulated and floated by vested interests with bad thoughts and intentions, I don’t understand for how long common Indians would fall for such cruel theories, people not only should refrain from such fake news, they should revert back to such people who circulate and make them understand that the root cause of all such fake news are dangerous minds.

I think that the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW), Government of India must address this issue squarely, and the authorities have to accept that there is a problem in the management of family planning programme and resolve it.[7]  Sound indicators are emerging that Hindu and Muslim fertility is merging 

 Matters cannot be shoved under the carpet now.

---

[1] For details, see: “A note on the growing demographic imbalances in the Indian subcontinent” by Dr. M.D. Srinivas, Centre for Policy Studies, Chennai, 1999. 

[2] Read more at:

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/73682076.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst 

[3] Masoodi (2019). “Joining the India story: Rise of the Muslim middle”, mint. Read more at: https://www.livemint.com/politics/news/joining-the-india-story-rise-of-the-muslim-middle-1548262657277.html

[4] Kothari, Devendra (2015), India: Resolving Hindu-Muslim population controversies at: https://kotharionindia.blogspot.com/2015/11/

 [5] The Government of India appointed a high level committee to prepare a report on the social, economic and educational status of Indian Muslims. The 7-member committee, headed by Justice Rajinder Sachar (retired) submitted its report to the Prime Minister in November 2006. The Sachar Committee’s report is an extremely valuable document on the social, economic and educational status of Indian Muslims.

[6] Madani, Mahmood A. 2015.  “Islamic State Vs Islamic Ideals” at: https://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/toi-edit-page/islamic-state-vs-islamic-ideals-there-is-no-clash-of-civilizations-and-terrorism-isnt-jihad/

 [7] Kothari, Devendra. 2014. “Managing Unwanted Fertility in India: Way Forward,” in Sharma Suresh and Joe William (eds.):   National Rural Health Mission: An Unfinished Agenda, New Delhi: Book Well: 25-36.