Will Muslims outnumber Hindus in India in the near future?

 

Dr. Devendra Kothari

Population and Development Analyst

Forum for Population Action

 

A 'Forward' written by me has been published   in the following book: The Population Myth: Islam, Family Planning and Politics in India by Y.S. Quraishi,  HarperCollins; 1st edition (15 February 2021).  

I am reproducing the foreword below for your reference

 Foreword

Population explosion is an age-old issue in India, but it has gained traction once again after Prime Minister Narendra Modi mentioned it in his Independence Day speech (2019). PM Modi, known to generally celebrate India’s “demographic dividend”, expressed concern at a “betahasha jansankhya visphot” (reckless population explosion) and stressed the need for government action to control the situation. The announcement drew mixed reactions. The Congress leader P. Chidambaram cheered it. On the other hand, some BJP leaders sniffed in the announcement a signal of the government’s intention to enact some kind of legislation to control the Muslim population.  The BJP and RSS leaders have for years been blaming Muslims for the purported spurt in the country’s population and raising the bogey of the community eventually outnumbering Hindus in the country (Refer: “A note on the growing demographic imbalances in the Indian subcontinent” by Dr. M.D. Srinivas, Centre for Policy Studies, Chennai, 1999.). In fact, a few politicians from the ruling party have used the PM speech to exhort Hindu women to birth at least four children. 

Based on the official data, however, this narrative does not hold water. The four National Family Health Surveys (NFHSs) have shown that over the past 24 years, new-generation Muslim families have done a better job at family planning, though their statistical figures still trail Hindu families. 

Let us consider some plain facts: 

Will Muslims outnumber Hindus in India in the near future? The Census 2011 data shows that since the Census 1951, the share of Hindus has dropped by 4.3 percentage points from 84.1% to 79.8% of the total population in 2011 while the share of Muslims has risen by 4.4 percentage points from 9.8% (no Census was conducted in the JK in 1951) to 14.2% in the corresponding period. Hindus comprised just about 66% of the population of India before partition in 1947. It is interesting to note that the projected figure shows a slight increase in the share of Hindu Population in 2021 as compared to 2011: 80.3 per cent versus 79.80 per cent. 

There is a sense of paranoia that if the Muslim population is allowed to increase,    it will overtake the population of Hindus in coming years. Before we resolve the issue, let us discuss what has happened in the first decade of 21^st century.

The population growth rate of various religions has come down in the decade (2001-2011). Hindu population growth rate slowed down to 16.76% from previous decade figure of 19.92% while Muslim witness sharp fall in growth rate to 24.60% in 2001-2011 from the previous figure of 29.52%. Such an abrupt fall in population growth rate for Muslims didn't happen in the last 6 decades (Population by Religious Communities, Census of India 2011). 

According to the projected figures, the Hindu population growth rate will go down further to 15.7% from previous decade figure of 16.8% while the Muslim population   may witness another sharp fall in growth rate to 18.2% from the previous figure of 24.60% in the decade 2011-2021 (Projected figures for the year 2021 are based on various sources like. NFHS-4 (2015-16), Population Reference Bureau and United National Population Division.).  One can notice difference between Hindu and Muslim population is narrowing fast. I believe that gap will further decrease in the Census 2031. 

So there is no sense in saying that Muslims will overtake Hindus, as argued by the many right wing politicians. Minorities in India, much like in the United States, are not really anywhere close to being dominant and the fear of any “Muslim takeover in India” was baseless, as noted by the 2019 Economics Nobel-winner Abhijit Banerjee. 

Why is the Muslim population growing slowly? There are many factors behind this unexpected trend but two factors are very important: Emerging middle class and declining fertility.

An analysis of data from the National Family Health Surveys (1992-2016) has shown that over the past 25 years, new-generation Muslim families have done a better job at family planning, though their statistical figures still trail the Hindu families.

In India, a small, emerging yet visible Muslim middle class has surfaced, “breaking the perception of a monolithic impoverished community”, as noted by Ashwaq Masoodi, the Nirman Fellow at Harvard University (Masoodi. 2019. “Joining the India story: Rise of the Muslim middle”, mint.). For example, the NFHS-4 shows that even though, among all religions, the presence of Muslims in the highest wealth quintile (top 20%) of the country is still the lowest, the share has gone up (from 17.2% to 18.8% by 2015-16). Even though in mid 1990s the community realized the importance of education, as documented by several researchers including Anwar Alam, senior fellow at the Policy Perspectives Foundation, a Delhi-based think tank: it wasn’t a dramatic move ( Alam, Anwar, “Emergence of Muslim Middle Class in Post-Independence India and Its Political Orientations,” Journal of Muslim Minority Affairs  35, 1, 2015). Instead some chose hybridized education, which meant that more and more Madrasas had to slowly modernize themselves to include English and computer training in their curriculum influencing the Muslim mindset. 

A widely used measure of fertility levels is the ‘total fertility rate’, or the average number of children a woman will have in her lifetime.    According to the first NFHS-1 (1992-93), this figure was 4.3 children for Muslims and 3.3 children for Hindus, or a fertility gap of 30.3% or one child per woman.   Latest NFHS-4 data shows that this gap has narrowed to 20.5% in 2015-16, a difference of half a birth on average per woman, even as both communities are having fewer children than before IIPS (IIPS. 2017. National Family Health Survey (NFHS-4), 2015-16: India. Mumbai: IIPS.). 

Even when Muslim fertility is declining, the fertility gap would not narrow until the Hindu fertility level reached the replacement level. In demography, it is considered to be 2.1 children per woman. The former Director of IIPS and a known demographer P.N. Mari Bhat had projected that Hindus will achieve replacement fertility by 2021 and a stable population by 2061; Muslims will achieve replacement fertility by 2031 and population stabilization by 2101, and will account for 18.8% of India’s population then. Bhat’s 2011 projections are extremely close to NFHS-4 figures. 

So, what should be the agenda? The only major religion left out of the demographic transition in India is Islam. And this group could be helped by providing family planning services looking to their needs, as happened in Bangladesh and Indonesia.  Muslim scholars believe that the permanent method of contraception is not permitted in Islam. So India has to diversify its approach to include other modern methods of contraception with quality in its programme like Bangladesh and Indonesia. 

India has to find a way to talk about religious demographics as other nations do — mostly without fuss, resentment or wild policy suggestions. It is because Indian Muslims want to be part of the mainstream. No doubt, Muslims have higher fertility rates than those in other religious groups.  But, in India, there is no clash of civilizations.  Indian Muslims are a part of Indian culture, as argued by the   noted Islamic Scholar Mahmood Madani   . “This is because of both India’s culture and its historical legacy. Muslim heritage is a part of a larger tradition of multiculturalism and mutual tolerance.”  

In spite of poverty and illiteracy, the prevailing unmet need for modern  family planning services is surprising, especially among Muslims.  As compared to Hindu women, Muslim women have high level of unmet need for family planning services, (12 % versus 16%).  It means that Muslim women in general do not want more children, yet they have them due to several other factors. I think that the Government of India must address this issue squarely, and the authorities have to accept that there is a problem in the management of family planning programme and resolve it (Kothari, Devendra. 2014. “Managing Unwanted Fertility in India: Way Forward,” in Sharma Suresh and Joe William (eds.),   National Rural Health Mission: An Unfinished Agenda, New Delhi: Book Well.). Sound indicators are emerging that Hindu and Muslim fertility is merging.  

If the economy is allowed to develop unimpeded, the Hindu-Muslim population issue must be discussed thoroughly. Rumour and hate mongers have to be faced head on. 

I am delighted that Dr SY Quraishi, a distinguished scholar in his own right, has taken up this challenging task. His book does a yeoman's service to the nation by attempting to break the long perpetuated myths which have become the fulcrum of dangerous communal polarisation. He has done well to get two great mathematicians to prepare a mathematical model of population growth which conclusively demolishes the myth that Muslims would overtake the Hindus ever – not to say any time soon.  

This book is unique in many other ways too. It has a chapter which convincingly breaks another myth that Islam is against family planning. Another chapter on how all other religions of the world view family planning is a great addition to public knowledge. A chapter on the success of family planning in major Muslim countries is also eye-opening, showing that Islam is not an obstacle to family planning programme anywhere.  

Dr. Quraishi’s conclusion that the problem should not be viewed as ‘Hindus versus Muslims’ problem but as a common problem for both the communities must be taken seriously. Finally, his bold appeal to Muslims to adopt family planning undeterred by provocative right-wing propaganda is an extremely positive initiative. To top it all, he has suggested a complete communication strategy to promote family planning among the Muslims for which not only the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare but the country should feel grateful to him. I have no hesitation to say that this is a great piece of work to promote understanding and national harmony.