'Corona Mukt (free) Bharat’ by the end of 2021

 

Dr. Devendra Kothari

Population and Development Analyst

Forum for Population Action

 

The New Year is a great time to give up anything that’s holding you back; unpacking a little emotional baggage is a great way to celebrate it. The Covid-19 pandemic has affected our lives, and how we live them. Everyday decisions have suddenly become harder to make. Further, the uncertain and unexpected evokes pronounced fear and stress. 

So when the Union Health Minister said that India would be in a position to vaccinate at least all of its adult population by the end of 2021,
it was a great sign of relief for everyone; however, he could not elaborate as to how India is going to achieve it. 

India is in desperate need of expert disaster management to achieve this target.  Currently, the corona management is considered as an administrative problem.  Further, pandemic is a Central government responsibility  under National Disaster Management Act since March 2020, and it comes under the jurisdiction of Home Ministry, though the Ministry is not related to the management of the pandemic even remotely.   As a result, we are not able to plan properly. For example, less than three months to its July 2021 vaccination deadline India has only reached 25% of its target. Due to the shortage in the vaccine, inoculation dropped from 35 lakh each day in the first week of April to 21 lakh in the last week of April. In May the daily average dropped further to 16 lakh doses being administered per day. 

That’s why it’s important to sit down, set a goal, and put a plan in place to start crushing the goal. And, this requires professional inputs.  

India has to achieve ‘Corona-Mukt Bharat’ for its endurance before the end of the year. For this, India has to vaccinate the entire population aged 5 to 64?  It is feasible, manageable and essential for the survival of India.

 

The article suggests a mechanism to achieve it.  

In mid-March, 2021, India believed that the worst of Covid-19 was already behind; and the focus had largely shifted from containment to vaccinations. And the world was looking up to India's production capacity for a steady supply, especially to the poorer countries. By mid-March, India had exported over twice the number of doses it had administered at home. But then the story changed suddenly. The daily infection rate that was on a steady decline took a reverse turn, almost with a vengeance. And the country found itself in the devastating second wave. 

Every day since April 25, India has had more than 40 per cent of the global coronavirus cases. On some days it has crossed the 50 per cent mark. India also reported more than 30 per cent of the total global Covid deaths. These are only the reported official cases and deaths. Many experts say the real numbers are much –much higher. 

Experts are a little uncertain about why there’s been a surge in coronavirus cases, as there hasn’t been one answer to explain the spike. It’s happened so fast that there hasn’t been a chance for massive research. 

A variant of SARS-CoV-2 known as B.1.617 is widely suspected to have played a big part in the disastrous spread of covid-19 across India in recent months, as per the WHO.[1] In addition, it has been pushed by certain man-made decisions/actions and over confidence.  The government took little steps to build India’s health infrastructure after the first wave, declared a false victory over the virus, celebrated Kumbh and went ahead with election rallies when the disease was spreading fast. In short, the laxity in preventive measures, coupled with the presence of new variants, has resulted in a nationwide crisis. 

 

The second wave of Covid-19 pandemic has hit India’s nascent economic recovery. Till now, there is no official estimate of its impact on the economy. Private forecasters have, however, made assessments of the damage caused by the second wave, which is still unfolding. It may take years to reach pre-pandemic levels.

 

Also, the national health and education systems have buckled under the strain of Covid-19’s second wave.  Many states are reporting shortages of hospital beds, oxygen supply, medicines, even space in morgues. Further, the prolonged closure of schools due to the COVID-19 pandemic in India may cause a loss of over billions of dollars in the country's future earnings, besides substantial learning losses, according to a World Bank report. [2]   

Available data indicate that the young and economically active populace is getting more infected in the new wave. “Children are definitely more symptomatic now than what we saw in the first wave,” said Tanu Singhal, a paediatrician and infectious disease specialist at Mumbai’s Ambani Hospital. So India has to FOCUS on a young and economically active population. 

What should India be doing? Here the concept of herd immunity could help. Herd immunity occurs when a large portion of a community (the herd) becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of disease from person to person unlikely. As a result, the whole community becomes protected —not just those who are immune.  For this many people are vaccinated against the disease to achieve immunity.  

Dr. Francis Collins, Director of the National Institute of Health, USA, recently said that “we don’t really quite know how many people need to be vaccinated against Covid-19 to hit herd immunity, but there has been a long-standing belief that 70% to 80% of the population needs to be vaccinated in  order for it to happen”. [3]

 

So far, India has vaccinated 10 per cent of the total population. On the other hand, the UK and USA have vaccinated 56 per cent and 48 per cent of their population, respectively, as on May 20, 2021. The U.S. and UK could reach herd immunity soon, as per Dr. Collins. .

 

In order to reach the herd immunity, India has to vaccinate around 80% of its population For this, India has to cover the entire population aged 5 to 64 that is around 112 crore on the priority basis, this includes the working and school and college going population. For the senior population 65+ it will be optional for a time being. However, a sizable proportion of the senior population has already been vaccinated. 

India has already administered over 18 crore coronavirus vaccine doses by May 20, 2021, as per MOHFW. India, therefore, needs additional 205 crore doses to fully vaccinate the entire target population. It means around 95 lakh doses every day between june1 to December 31, 2021. And, India has to plan for this. 

But a severe vaccine shortage has derailed India's vaccination drive. With a steady supply, we could have vaccinated half the adult population by now. It is clear the current production capacity is inadequate to meet the demand. India needs around 2.05 billion doses to fully vaccinate the target population.

The Government of India can increase   supply of vaccines by taking certain steps: Ask vaccine manufacturing companies in the country to manufacture the vaccine using the formula  developed jointly by Bharat Biotech and ICMR; allow all foreign vaccines to be used in the country, and the Centre, rather than the states, should buy them; the foreign Covid vaccine manufacturing companies should be allowed to manufacture the vaccines in India; and provide financial and other  helps to companies in India and outside  who can make vaccines in India. 

Vaccinating the entire target population in 214 days is a herculean task.  But it can be achieved with proper planning and management. The reason we don’t have enough vaccines is that we did not order them at the right time because we didn’t think we needed them. In other words, the Government   didn’t have a ‘grip’ over the problem. This is the faculty of being aware of the situation, being knowledgeable about what resources are at hand and what may be required in the future and being conscious of what events to anticipate, writes Aakar Patel, a senior journalist [4]

 

Further, the problem of the Covid-19 pandemic cannot be approached through the Central government interventions and guidelines alone. It needs the States to be aware of the situation, be knowledgeable about what resources are at hand and what may be required in future and be conscious of what events to anticipate. In a centralised system, as has been followed so far, where decision making is often the purview of a few people and sometimes that only of one person. 

Vaccinating the target population on or before the end of the year will require a management approach.  For this, creation of a national task force under an eminent epidemiologist like Anthony Fauci of the USA could be a sound move. (Epidemiology aims to solve or control health problems. It integrates experiments, risk assessment, statistical analysis, and surveys to study disease patterns.) 

At the central level, the mass vaccination programme should be managed by a ten member National Task-Force headed by a known epidemiologist.  Other members may represent disciplines like management, medical, economics, public administration and sociology among others. This full-time high powered Task-Force will take all the technical and management decisions as to how to achieve the target. The procurement and supply of vaccines will be the responsibility of this task-force. It will be a powerful committee reporting directly to the Prime Minister of India. 

The Task-force will ask states and UTs to prepare district-wise and vaccination centre-wise plans. The move is aimed at enabling “efficient and judicious” utilisation of available doses for smooth implementation of the national vaccination programme. 

The programme implementation will be the responsibility of   states and union territories. They will prepare the plans of action district wise and that will be submitted to the National Task-force for approval and monitoring. Also, states and private vaccination centres will publish their vaccination calendar on Co-Win digital platform in advance, while desisting from publishing single day vaccination calendars.

The proposed vaccination exercise will be regularly reviewed and monitored by the Task-Force.   

In the last, but very important, all the controversial issues like farmers’ bills and CAA need to be put aside and priority given to procure and vaccinate on a war footing. No doubt, rapid vaccination will bring down the curve. However, it's important that the public follows all the laid down Covid Protocol (and if not followed, enforced by the powers that be). 

In sum, recognise that the virus has a long-term survival plan of its own, and is still generating variants. But it does not mean that one should stop trying to win over the virus. Vaccines may indeed be the miracle weapon that may win this battle.  So India must focus on vaccinating the target population on or before the New Year.

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[1] The Economist, May 14, 2021. How much should you worry about the “Indian variant”? at https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?hl=en&tab=wm#inbox/FMfcgzGkXSVlxKjsmMXzFRQGbgnkkHph 

[2] https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/covid-19-school-closure-may-cost-over-usd-400-billion-to-india-world-bank-2308868 

[3] Read more at:https://www.deseret.com/coronavirus/2021/4/26/22403505/us-covid-herd-immunity-timeline 

[4]Read more at: https://www.asianage.com/opinion/columnists/180521/aakar-patel-govt-needed-to-have-grip-over-covid-that-is-what-pm-lacks.html

Second wave of the pandemic: Testing times for the Indian leadership

 

Dr. Devendra Kothari

Population and Development Analyst

Forum for Population Action

 

Since April, India has been witnessing a surge in Covid-19 infections. This fearsome second wave of the covid-19 pandemic has engulfed India.  With around 400,000 people now testing positive every day, it accounts for almost half the recorded global rise in covid-19 cases. India’s official death toll has crossed 200,000 score and keeps rising by more than 3,000 a day. Yet experts insist that India’s crisis is far bigger than even those numbers suggest. The real caseload could be ten or even 30 times higher, and the number of deaths much more, too, as per The Economist (April 28, 2021). Could India’s official statistics really be so drastically understating the scale of the pandemic?

 

What should be done? The government should step up the vaccination process. Vaccination is a very important intervention. But an impact on epidemiology can be had only after two doses and a sizable proportion are vaccinated to give an impact. As of now, around 2 per cent has been given two doses. But I do not think India can conduct mass vaccinations in order to make an impact on epidemiology now under the present management system. India has exported over 5.84 crore Covid-19 vaccines to 70 countries against 3.48 crore it administered. Now, Indians are in dire need of vaccines. [1]

 

It appears that India’s leadership could not visualize the magnitude of the problem. The alarming surge in Covid-19 cases in India can be blamed largely on the Prime Minister and Home Minister, and their reckless messaging through overcrowded, unmasked election rallies as well as the Kumbh Mela.

 

Sure, elections have to be held on time. But when they are being conducted in the middle of a life-threatening pandemic, there is absolutely no justification for crowded rallies and massive road shows. And West Bengal Chief Minister was no exception.

 

Further, Kumbh Mela contributed its own role in spreading the virus. Kumbh Mela is a major festival in Hinduism. The festival is marked by a ritual dip in the waters, but it is also a celebration of community commerce with numerous fairs, education, religious discourses by saints, mass feedings of monks or the poor, and entertainment spectacle.

 

At Kumbh Mela, held in Haridwar in April, 2021, many shun masks & distancing, say faith will save them. Uttarakhand Chief Minister Tirath Singh Rawat said at the opening of Kumbh that the “flow and blessings of Ma Ganga will ensure coronavirus doesn’t spread”.   

In short, it is about the message that goes to the people. When the top leadership looks so much at ease addressing a crowd of thousands, then their followers across the country begin to think there is nothing to worry about, as noted  by ThePrint. [2]

 

The next post explores how to achieve Corona-free India by the end of this year.

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[1] Refer India Today April 28, 2021 for:  How India's second Covid wave started, what went wrong, and what can be done: Top virologist answers. Read more at: https://www.indiatoday.in/coronavirus-outbreak/story/india-second-covid-wave-start-went-wrong-top-virologist-answers-details-1795743-2021-04-28

 

[2] Refer article published in ThePrint (April 14, 2021): Poll rallies to Kumbh Mela — Modi-Shah’s conscience must take a look at latest Covid surge at: https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/newsindia/poll-rallies-to-kumbh-mela-%E2%80%94-modi-shahs-conscience-must-take-a-look-at-latest-covid-surge/ar-BB1fD513

 

Will Muslims outnumber Hindus in India in the near future?

 

Dr. Devendra Kothari

Population and Development Analyst

Forum for Population Action

 

A 'Forward' written by me has been published   in the following book: The Population Myth: Islam, Family Planning and Politics in India by Y.S. Quraishi,  HarperCollins; 1st edition (15 February 2021).  

I am reproducing the foreword below for your reference

 Foreword

Population explosion is an age-old issue in India, but it has gained traction once again after Prime Minister Narendra Modi mentioned it in his Independence Day speech (2019). PM Modi, known to generally celebrate India’s “demographic dividend”, expressed concern at a “betahasha jansankhya visphot” (reckless population explosion) and stressed the need for government action to control the situation. The announcement drew mixed reactions. The Congress leader P. Chidambaram cheered it. On the other hand, some BJP leaders sniffed in the announcement a signal of the government’s intention to enact some kind of legislation to control the Muslim population.  The BJP and RSS leaders have for years been blaming Muslims for the purported spurt in the country’s population and raising the bogey of the community eventually outnumbering Hindus in the country (Refer: “A note on the growing demographic imbalances in the Indian subcontinent” by Dr. M.D. Srinivas, Centre for Policy Studies, Chennai, 1999.). In fact, a few politicians from the ruling party have used the PM speech to exhort Hindu women to birth at least four children. 

Based on the official data, however, this narrative does not hold water. The four National Family Health Surveys (NFHSs) have shown that over the past 24 years, new-generation Muslim families have done a better job at family planning, though their statistical figures still trail Hindu families. 

Let us consider some plain facts: 

Will Muslims outnumber Hindus in India in the near future? The Census 2011 data shows that since the Census 1951, the share of Hindus has dropped by 4.3 percentage points from 84.1% to 79.8% of the total population in 2011 while the share of Muslims has risen by 4.4 percentage points from 9.8% (no Census was conducted in the JK in 1951) to 14.2% in the corresponding period. Hindus comprised just about 66% of the population of India before partition in 1947. It is interesting to note that the projected figure shows a slight increase in the share of Hindu Population in 2021 as compared to 2011: 80.3 per cent versus 79.80 per cent. 

There is a sense of paranoia that if the Muslim population is allowed to increase,    it will overtake the population of Hindus in coming years. Before we resolve the issue, let us discuss what has happened in the first decade of 21^st century.

The population growth rate of various religions has come down in the decade (2001-2011). Hindu population growth rate slowed down to 16.76% from previous decade figure of 19.92% while Muslim witness sharp fall in growth rate to 24.60% in 2001-2011 from the previous figure of 29.52%. Such an abrupt fall in population growth rate for Muslims didn't happen in the last 6 decades (Population by Religious Communities, Census of India 2011). 

According to the projected figures, the Hindu population growth rate will go down further to 15.7% from previous decade figure of 16.8% while the Muslim population   may witness another sharp fall in growth rate to 18.2% from the previous figure of 24.60% in the decade 2011-2021 (Projected figures for the year 2021 are based on various sources like. NFHS-4 (2015-16), Population Reference Bureau and United National Population Division.).  One can notice difference between Hindu and Muslim population is narrowing fast. I believe that gap will further decrease in the Census 2031. 

So there is no sense in saying that Muslims will overtake Hindus, as argued by the many right wing politicians. Minorities in India, much like in the United States, are not really anywhere close to being dominant and the fear of any “Muslim takeover in India” was baseless, as noted by the 2019 Economics Nobel-winner Abhijit Banerjee. 

Why is the Muslim population growing slowly? There are many factors behind this unexpected trend but two factors are very important: Emerging middle class and declining fertility.

An analysis of data from the National Family Health Surveys (1992-2016) has shown that over the past 25 years, new-generation Muslim families have done a better job at family planning, though their statistical figures still trail the Hindu families.

In India, a small, emerging yet visible Muslim middle class has surfaced, “breaking the perception of a monolithic impoverished community”, as noted by Ashwaq Masoodi, the Nirman Fellow at Harvard University (Masoodi. 2019. “Joining the India story: Rise of the Muslim middle”, mint.). For example, the NFHS-4 shows that even though, among all religions, the presence of Muslims in the highest wealth quintile (top 20%) of the country is still the lowest, the share has gone up (from 17.2% to 18.8% by 2015-16). Even though in mid 1990s the community realized the importance of education, as documented by several researchers including Anwar Alam, senior fellow at the Policy Perspectives Foundation, a Delhi-based think tank: it wasn’t a dramatic move ( Alam, Anwar, “Emergence of Muslim Middle Class in Post-Independence India and Its Political Orientations,” Journal of Muslim Minority Affairs  35, 1, 2015). Instead some chose hybridized education, which meant that more and more Madrasas had to slowly modernize themselves to include English and computer training in their curriculum influencing the Muslim mindset. 

A widely used measure of fertility levels is the ‘total fertility rate’, or the average number of children a woman will have in her lifetime.    According to the first NFHS-1 (1992-93), this figure was 4.3 children for Muslims and 3.3 children for Hindus, or a fertility gap of 30.3% or one child per woman.   Latest NFHS-4 data shows that this gap has narrowed to 20.5% in 2015-16, a difference of half a birth on average per woman, even as both communities are having fewer children than before IIPS (IIPS. 2017. National Family Health Survey (NFHS-4), 2015-16: India. Mumbai: IIPS.). 

Even when Muslim fertility is declining, the fertility gap would not narrow until the Hindu fertility level reached the replacement level. In demography, it is considered to be 2.1 children per woman. The former Director of IIPS and a known demographer P.N. Mari Bhat had projected that Hindus will achieve replacement fertility by 2021 and a stable population by 2061; Muslims will achieve replacement fertility by 2031 and population stabilization by 2101, and will account for 18.8% of India’s population then. Bhat’s 2011 projections are extremely close to NFHS-4 figures. 

So, what should be the agenda? The only major religion left out of the demographic transition in India is Islam. And this group could be helped by providing family planning services looking to their needs, as happened in Bangladesh and Indonesia.  Muslim scholars believe that the permanent method of contraception is not permitted in Islam. So India has to diversify its approach to include other modern methods of contraception with quality in its programme like Bangladesh and Indonesia. 

India has to find a way to talk about religious demographics as other nations do — mostly without fuss, resentment or wild policy suggestions. It is because Indian Muslims want to be part of the mainstream. No doubt, Muslims have higher fertility rates than those in other religious groups.  But, in India, there is no clash of civilizations.  Indian Muslims are a part of Indian culture, as argued by the   noted Islamic Scholar Mahmood Madani   . “This is because of both India’s culture and its historical legacy. Muslim heritage is a part of a larger tradition of multiculturalism and mutual tolerance.”  

In spite of poverty and illiteracy, the prevailing unmet need for modern  family planning services is surprising, especially among Muslims.  As compared to Hindu women, Muslim women have high level of unmet need for family planning services, (12 % versus 16%).  It means that Muslim women in general do not want more children, yet they have them due to several other factors. I think that the Government of India must address this issue squarely, and the authorities have to accept that there is a problem in the management of family planning programme and resolve it (Kothari, Devendra. 2014. “Managing Unwanted Fertility in India: Way Forward,” in Sharma Suresh and Joe William (eds.),   National Rural Health Mission: An Unfinished Agenda, New Delhi: Book Well.). Sound indicators are emerging that Hindu and Muslim fertility is merging.  

If the economy is allowed to develop unimpeded, the Hindu-Muslim population issue must be discussed thoroughly. Rumour and hate mongers have to be faced head on. 

I am delighted that Dr SY Quraishi, a distinguished scholar in his own right, has taken up this challenging task. His book does a yeoman's service to the nation by attempting to break the long perpetuated myths which have become the fulcrum of dangerous communal polarisation. He has done well to get two great mathematicians to prepare a mathematical model of population growth which conclusively demolishes the myth that Muslims would overtake the Hindus ever – not to say any time soon.  

This book is unique in many other ways too. It has a chapter which convincingly breaks another myth that Islam is against family planning. Another chapter on how all other religions of the world view family planning is a great addition to public knowledge. A chapter on the success of family planning in major Muslim countries is also eye-opening, showing that Islam is not an obstacle to family planning programme anywhere.  

Dr. Quraishi’s conclusion that the problem should not be viewed as ‘Hindus versus Muslims’ problem but as a common problem for both the communities must be taken seriously. Finally, his bold appeal to Muslims to adopt family planning undeterred by provocative right-wing propaganda is an extremely positive initiative. To top it all, he has suggested a complete communication strategy to promote family planning among the Muslims for which not only the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare but the country should feel grateful to him. I have no hesitation to say that this is a great piece of work to promote understanding and national harmony.

 

Aatmanirbhar Bharat hinges on human capital formation

 

Dr. Devendra Kothari

Population and Development Analyst

Forum for Population Action

 

 

Self-reliance increases self-confidence. 

Current thinking about economic development has not bettered global livelihoods. Without a solid model based on human development, economic development models produce hit-and-miss successes. “Economically, the lives of billions are lived out in misery and despair while many tools of better living are readily available. At a very basic level all of us suffer because social justice is not being achieved,….” noted by Paul Godfrey, Director of the Melvin J. Ballard Centre of Economic Self-reliance at Brighten Young University, Provo, UT. [1] 

Here the concept of   ‘Atmanirbhar economy’ or ‘self-reliant economy’ could be a great help.  ‘Aatmanirbharata’ (‘self-reliance’) has become a buzzword in India after Prime Minister Narendra Modi mentioned it in his address to the Nation on May 12, 2020. He said that his version of self-reliance “does not imply isolationism and inward-orientation”. We think that his vision of ‘Aatmanirbharata’ or ‘self-reliance’ [2] will inject greater self-confidence in the people in making an empowered economy in the next 15-20 years. It must, however, be backed by a concrete action plan; otherwise, this chance may slip away. This post aims in this direction. 

The Self-Reliant Economy (SRE) represents a different way of thinking about the processes and outcomes of economic development. It is “an individual’s ability to garner and hold economic resources in excess of their basic needs.  In addition, individuals who are economically self-reliant have greater resilience in the face of negative economic shocks (like Covid-19 pandemic). Those with greater resilience will suffer lower intensity (less severe) or shorter duration (quicker recovery). In other words, SRE represents a type of insurance against the disruptions caused by adverse economic events. More important than its insurance value, SRE provides a solid platform from which people can develop and reach their full human potential. 

How to achieve self-reliance? Available literature suggests that countries attempting to reach their objectives of ‘Aatmanirbharata’  should pursue policies that foster productivity growth. Increases in productivity allow countries to produce greater output for the same level of input (and goods become competitive in the global market), earn higher revenues, and ultimately generate higher Gross Domestic Product and wellbeing. 

One of the best examples of this is China’s economic story. Economists generally attribute much of China's rapid economic growth to two main factors: large-scale capital investment (financed by large domestic savings and foreign investment) and rapid productivity growth by investing in people.[3]   

As such, labour productivity is crucially dependent on the level of investment in knowledge (Human Development) and innovation (R&D), and even the success of various    structural reforms to generate jobs. 

This suggests that developing countries like India, in attempting to achieve SRE, should pursue policies that foster labour productivity growth.  For India to be truly self-reliant and self-confident, public investment in the components of human development like education, health, gender equality and of course population stabilization efforts have to increase immediately. It is, therefore, an investment in people, especially those who are deprived, is a need of the hour. This is the way through which a number of other countries in the region, such as China, Japan, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam, boosted their national economies through a successful human development agenda. 

Human capital lies in the individual-intangible quadrant and represents the final form of capital that helps individuals develop economic self-reliance. Human capital is the sum total of attitudes, cognitive abilities, and deployable skills possessed by an individual. It is the ability to work with little or minimum supervision. Also it can be defined as the ability to depend on oneself rather than relying on other people to achieve the goal. In other words, human capital can be described as what is in an individual’s head (knowledge), hands (skills), and heart (attitudes). 

Human capital arises from two sources: (1) our own efforts, talents, and skills and (2) our relationships with family, government, and macro-social systems. In a system which is dominated by poverty and inequality, the role of government or macro-social systems are very important in promoting self-reliance. In other words, the macro-social systems and government have catalytic power to boost human capita. 

So what is India waiting for? 

The central government must set an overall action agenda for a self–reliant economy and human capital formation in consultation with the states, and its implementation, however, should be left on states. The Centre must give the states greater leeway to take decisions to achieve these. 

In addition, India needs well-governed and well-managed smaller states for better governance. There are 28 states in India at present.   Their populations range massively in size – the largest, Uttar Pradesh, holds around   200 million people, the smallest, Sikkim, just over half a million. About half of the country's population lives in five States, namely, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Bihar, West Bengal and Andhra Pradesh in 2011; and ten most populated states or super states of India contribute more than three- fourth of India's population . 

There is a widespread perception that splitting super states into smaller ones will improve administration and governance by bringing power centres closer to the people, thus paving the way for a self-reliant economy. 

The population of India is projected to increase from 1390 million in 2020 to 1700 million in 2051, as per the Population Reference Bureau that is in the next thirty-two years – an increase of 540 million. As a consequence, the total population of 10 most populous or super-states of India will increase from 927 million to 1366 million. And this fact must be kept in mind while redrawing the map of the Indian Union.  As such, division of the existing super-states is a must. For governance and socio-economic reasons, the total population to be carved out smaller States should not exceed more than 50 million each with administrative friendly inter-state boundaries not like existing boundaries in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal or Rajasthan. 

Now the question arises as how to boost human capital formation?  The policy monograph - Nurturing Human Development: A Strategy for New India [4]  proposes such a strategy to unlock the human potential based on the ‘capability’ approach; and it is christened as “HDPlus” (Human Development Plus).  It is a dynamic agenda based on a ‘whole child’ concept, that is a school-going child and his/her family (that is HDPlus family) should be the fulcrum of human development efforts. The concept is being described by policies, practices, and relationships which ensure that each child is healthy, educated, engaged, supported and encouraged. For this, integrating the child and his or her family more deeply into the day-to-day life of school and home activities represents an untapped instrument for raising the overall achievements including learning skills and health parameters, and hence improving the  overall productivity of the future workers. In other words, creating an enabling environment at family and school levels is a way to empower people.  

It’s now or never situation not only for India alone but also for PM Modi. In my article: Decoding Modi’s Resounding Victory (June 2019), I concluded that “what India does in the next five years will determine not only the destiny of the country but also of PM Modi”. [5] A person like Modi knows about it that the people elected him with immense hope that he will change their lives for better. Investments in education, health, living environment and its determinants – the social sector – therefore, should be made a priority in the coming years to lay the foundation for a developed India by 100th birth anniversary of India. For this, PM Modi must use unmatched political capital to make it happen today!   

The vision of ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ or ‘Self-Reliant India’ could be “The Roaring Twenties” for India.   But that cannot be achieved without peace, stability and effective governance. India has to create an environment for the fundamentals of progress: infrastructure development, human capital formation, rule of law, and so on. Interestingly, it also frees up resources, both financial and human, that would otherwise be diverted to controlling violence or maintaining law and order. Further, we have to recognise that the solidarity of people is a prerequisite for a Self-Reliant Economy. Here the issue of communal harmony is very important.   Lastly, any action agenda to achieve self-reliance must be based on a participatory dialogue between Centre and States

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[1] Godfrey, Paul. (2013). More than Money, Stanford: Stanford University Press.

[2] The Oxford panel has now chosen 'Atmanirbharta' (self-reliance) as the Hindi word of 2020. "It validated the day-to-day achievements of the countless Indians who dealt with and survived the perils of a pandemic,” the Panel noted. “It gives a voice to the strength displayed by young and old alike in dealing with extended periods of isolation, lack of familial support, loss of livelihoods and other difficulties through sheer determination and self-reliance", the panel further added. Previous Oxford Hindi words of the year are Aadhar (2017), Nari Shakti (2018) and Samvidhaan (2019). Read more at: https://in.news.yahoo.com/atmanirbharta-named-oxford-hindi-word-of-2020-094259960.html

[3] Morrison, Wayne M.  2019. China’s Economic Rise: History, Trends, Challenges, and Implications for the United States, Congressional Research Service, Washington DC. 

[4] For details, see:  Kothari, Devendra. 2019. Nurturing Human Development: A Strategy for New India, New Delhi: Paragoan International Publishers.

 

[5] Kothari, Devendra, Decoding Modi’s Resounding Victory, India Currents dated June 21, 2019. Read more at: https://indiacurrents.com/decoding-modis-resounding-victory/

 

Is India paving way for a creation of Khalistan?

 

Dr. Devendra Kothari

Population and Development Analyst

Forum for Population Action

The stalemate over the three-farm laws continued for the 67th day today (January 31, 2021) around the border of the national capital where thousands of farmers are protesting in open against the new legislation passed hurriedly by the Parliament in the last September. The farmers from all over India are participating in the agitation but it is heavily dominated by the farmers from the state of Punjab. 

At a time when farmers are protesting against the three farm laws, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on December 15, 2020 that a conspiracy is going on in and around Delhi to confuse farmers. Other BJP leaders took clue from this statement and linked the farm agitation to Khalistan sympathizers. “Khalistani link” was alleged by Haryana Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar. Several experts and political parties have strongly condemned Haryana CM Khattar’s statement terming protesting farmers as “Khalistanis”.  “This is a conspiracy to defame the farmers and their agitation to pave the way for its repression with brutal force,” said Sukhbir Singh Badal, President of Shiromani Akali Dal, and former close supporter of the Modi Government. 

Such statements by the ruling BJP party may really push the people of Punjab towards the Khalistan movement, which has already created troubles in the past. 

What is the Khalistan movement? The fight for a separate Punjabi State owes its origins to the Punjabi Suba Movement. The Akali Dal – Sikh- dominated political party-sought to create a separate Sikh province or state.  When the State Reorganisation Commission, constituted to assess the demand for separate states by the linguistic groups, made its recommendations, it rejected the Akali Dal’s demand. 

But after a series of violent protests, the Indira Gandhi government relented in 1966. The existing state was trifurcated into Punjabi-majority Punjab, Hindi majority Haryana and the Union Territory of Chandigarh. Some hilly regions of the state were merged into Himachal Pradesh. However, the seeds of Khalistan had been seeded. 

Before we discuss the current farmers’ agitation and causes behind it, let us briefly deliberate on the Green Revolution.

 

The Green Revolution in India began in the mid-1960s marking a transition from traditional agriculture in India and the introduction of high-yielding varieties of seeds and the associated agricultural techniques. High yielding varieties of seeds were first introduced in the Indian states of Punjab, Haryana and parts of western Uttar Pradesh, the leading Campaigners of the current agitation. 

Among the Indian states that is said to have benefited most from the green revolution in India was the state of Punjab, where food-grains production increased from 5.37 million tonnes in 1965-66 to 32 million tonnes in 1995-96. 

Most of the state lies in a fertile alluvial plain with many rivers and an extensive irrigation canal system. Despite covering only 1.53% of its geographical area and  less than 2.5% of India’s population, Punjab makes up for about 20% of India's wheat production, around 12% of its rice production, and around 10% of its milk production, and  thus  Punjab became the    'India’s breadbasket'. 

At the international level, this represents three per cent of the global production of wheat and rice. And, Punjab became the most developed state of India. Its per capita income in 2006 was 28,605 was way ahead of the national average of just Rs. 6,929. Punjab also claimed a 100 per cent rural electrification as well as almost 99 per cent connectivity of villages by paved road against the national average of just 44 per cent. 

In 1990, when I was exploring reasons behind the Blue Star Operation, I noted that the newly achieved prosperity prompted many Punjabis, especially the youth to think in terms of a separate country of Khalistan. It was argued that by selling agricultural products like wheat to India and others, Punjab could become  a developed country like the USA and Canada. And, such sentiments were used by the extremists like Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale, who was reportedly backed by Pakistan's ISI, had made his demands clear - he wanted the Indian government to pass a resolution which would allow India to be divided, thereby creating a new country for Sikhs called 'Khalistan' -  the land of pure. 

Radical separatist Bhindranwale had started laying the groundwork for his demand in 1982, and by mid-1983 managed to gain support for his plan to divide India. In mid-1983, Bhindranwale and his armed militant group entered the Golden Temple and took over its control. They then set up a base inside. Taking back the control of the Golden Temple from armed militants and preserving its sanctity was not easy. Being the holiest site for Sikhs made the decision even tougher to take. However, after nearly a year of consultations and trying to negotiate, then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi decided that the only option left was to carry out a military operation against the militants.  This led to the Operation Blue star. It was carried out between June 1 and 10, 1984 to capture Bhindranwale   and his armed followers. [1]

Now the question arises why the farmers from Punjab among others are agitating against the three farm laws? 

While the Green Revolution provided some solutions to the problem of food security in India, Punjab began to face a completely new range of problems: Decaying soil, pest-infested crops and indebted farmers. Further, the price Punjab has paid for India’s food security comprises cancer, renal failure, stillborn babies and birth defects. A large-scale use of pesticides and synthetic nitrogen fertilisers has magnified this situation. 

As a result, the economy of Punjab has been facing problems. Now its economy is the 15^th largest state economy in India with ₹5.75 lakh crore (US$81 billion) in gross domestic product and a per capita GDP of ₹167,000 (US$2,300), ranking 16^th amongst Indian states. Punjab ranked first in GDP per capita amongst Indian states in 1981 and fourth in 2001, but has experienced slower growth than the rest of India in recent years, having the second-slowest GDP per capita growth rate of all Indian states and UTs between 2000 and 2010, behind only Manipur. The state's economy is mainly dominated by agricultural production and small and medium-sized enterprises. 

In Punjab, mainly the two cereal crops, wheat and rice, are grown in rotation during a year. Rice is the principal crop of the Kharif season and wheat is the principal crop of Rabi season. 

Here the concept of Minimum Support Price (MSP) is a great support to farmers and their economy. MSP is set by the government for certain agricultural products like wheat and rice, at which the products would directly be bought from the farmers if the open market prices are less than the cost incurred. In other words, when the market price falls below the declared MSP, the government would purchase the entire quantity from the farmers at MSP. (For the MSP calculation, the Swaminathan Committee, 2007 suggested a formula: cost of production + 50 %.) The chief objectives of setting up MSP are:

 

1. Support farmers from distress sales
2. To procure food grains for public distribution 

Why are farmers against the three farm laws? It is because the passed law does not cover MSP for their products and they feel that in the absence of MSP, the corporate sector will exploit them. 

The government of India’s refusal to make the MSP as a part of the laws has deepened doubts of the farmers.   

Even after Prime Minister Modi's repeated assurance that these farm laws will neither end the minimum support price regime nor the mandi system, thousands of farmers have been staying put in the bitter cold  (around freezing poin) outside Delhi. The former Agricultural Minister and a farmer itself, Shared  Pawar said the new laws will adversely impact the MSP procurement infrastructure thereby weakening the mandi system. MSP mechanism has to be ensured and strengthened further, he added. 

Further, the Bharatiya Kisan Sangh (BKS) and the Swadeshi Jagran Manch (SJM), both are part of the ruling party BJP and RSS, have urged the Modi government to ensure that MSP, which guarantees a certain level of returns on produce, it should be   a part of purchases inside and outside mandis. 

After so many days of protest in Delhi and several rounds of meetings, the government is still adamant that it will not withdraw the farm laws. The farmers have hardened their stand on repealing the laws. Where is this protest heading with no conclusion in sight? 

When the government of India and its ministers say openly that   the present farm agitation, initiated by the farmers of Punjab, has been managed by the Khalistan sympathizers, what does it mean? Anyone can conclude that the government is preparing a ground for the reemergence of Khalistan movement? 

The government should not blame the Khalistani sympathizers; I understand opposing parties’   leaders can talk like this but not the ruling party. 

Three passed Bills are needed to make the farming profitable, but in the way they were cleared create doubts. I suggest that the Modi government should pass the fourth Bill and make MSP mandatory for next three years. It will give sufficient time to the farming community to adjust with the new realities. 

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[1] Brar, K.S. (1993). Operation Blue Star: the true story.  UBS Publisher's Publishers Pvt. Ltd. Also refer article (2018): 34 Years On, A Brief History About Operation Bluestar, And Why It Was Carried Out” at: https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/operation-bluestar-34th-anniversary-a-brief-history-about-operation-bluestar-and-why-it-was-carried--1863385