Dr. Devendra Kothari
Population and Development Analyst
Forum for Population Action
Sex ratio, the ratio
of males
to females in a population,
is a sensitive indicator that displays the status of women in a society. It is mainly
the outcome of the interplay of sex differentials in mortality, sex selective
migration, sex ratio at birth and at times the sex differential in population
enumeration. The overall sex ratio in India
had always remained unfavorable to females. Moreover, barring some hiccups, it
has shown a long term declining trend to reach 927 females per 1000 males in
1991 from 972 in 1901 and 946 in 1951. Of
the total population of India in 2011,
623.7 million were males and 586.5 million were females, giving a sex ratio of
940 females per 1000 males, which is higher than the sex ratio observed in 2001
(933). Though marginal, this is a welcome improvement over the 2001
census. Further, it is for the first time that two consecutive censuses have
shown an increase in general sex ratio at the national level[1].
This probably reflects an improvement in the relative census coverage of the
female population as well as some genuine changes in the status of females, as
reveled by the declining maternal mortality ratios (from 327 in 1999-2001 to
212 in 2007-09) and increasing expectation of life at birth (from 65.3 years in
1996-2001 to 68.1 years in 2006-10). Drastic
improvement in overall sex ratio in coming years will largely depend on
efforts to improve the status of women especially girl child. If recent
declining trends in child sex ratio (no
of girls per 1000 boys in age group 0-6) continue[2],
it is most likely that the recent gains in overall sex ratio may disappear in
couple of decades. Thus, an
understanding of intermediate factors influencing child
sex ratio is must in order to suggest effective policy actions.
This blog examines the recent decline in the
child sex ratio (CSR) in India and relates its emergence to the three
intermediate variables: prenatal technology, declining fertility, and gender
bias using available census and other data[3].
Before the Census 2011 results were
declared on March 30, 2011, it was widely assumed that CSR would register some
improvement over 2001 findings[4]. However, the results reported a steep fall in
the ratio again, and this is most
depressing finding of the Census of India 2011.
According to the Indian decennial censuses, CSR went down from 945 girls per 100 boys
in 1991 to 927 in 2001 and further to 914 in 2011. In fact this is
the lowest child sex ratio recorded since India’s Independence in 1947. The
decline of 13 points between 2001 and
2011 as compared to 18 points between 1991 and 2001 may offer some consolation
to all those concerned with the issue.
However, the actual number of missing girls in the age group 0-6 has increased
significantly in last two decades.
To be concluded
[1]
Kothari, Devendra. 2011. Implications of Emerging
Demographic Scenario: Based on the Provisional Results of Census of India 2011,
A Brief, a publication of Management Institute of Population and Development.
Parivar Seva Sanstha, New Delhi.
[2] In 2011, the child sex ratio was 914 girls per 1,000
boys and trended to reduce to 899 in 2021.
[3] For more
information on this issue, refer papers by: Christophe
Z. Guilmoto, “Son preference, sex selection, and kinship in Vietnam,”
Population and Development Review 38(1) 2012:31-54; Rachel Murphy, Ran Tao, and
Xi Lu. 2011, “Son
Preference in Rural China: Patrilineal families and Socioeconomic Change, Population and Development Review 37(4) 2011:665-690.
Also see: UNFPA,
Sex Ratio at birth in South East Asia with a focus on Vietnam: An annotated
bibliography designed to guide further policy research, UNFPA, 2010.
[4] This assumption was
due, in no small part, to efforts by the central and state governments to
discourage the abortion of female fetuses, including the passage of the
Pre-Natal Diagnostic Techniques (Regulation and Prevention of Misuse) Act In
1994, which outlawed the practice as well as the efforts of several NGOs to
create awareness against abortion of female fetuses.
