Crime in India and unwanted fertility

Devendra Kothari PhD

Population and Development Analyst

Forum for Population Action

“Population growth fueled by unwanted fertility and resource deprivation are important predictors of crime in a jurisdiction".

Crime and crime rates, as measured by official statistics, have not been static. Explaining why changes occur is not simple. There is growing evidence that social and economic factors, such as poverty, unemployment and income disparity, are correlated with crime.[1] I, however,  strongly believe the population growth fueled by unwanted fertility is one of the most important predictors influencing the amount and nature of crimes committed. Crime is present in many forms in India, and it would not be wrong even if we say it is present in all forms be it drug trafficking, smuggling, money laundering, robbery, extortion, murder, poaching or nefarious activities like rape, kidnapping, molestation, sexual harassment, etc.[2] However, the steep rise in crime statistic in the last two decades  is a cause for alarm. Crime leaves deep scars in the society; therefore we need to study the patterns and causes of crimes to identify remedial measures and policy interventions to contain crimes. The post aims in this direction.

The selected crime-head-wise incidence, reported by the National Crime Records Bureau for the period 1991-2011 along with percentage variation in 2011 over 1991, is presented in Table 1.  It is apparent that the incidence of the total reported cognizable crimes under IPC increased by 39% during the last twenty years, however, and increase in crime against women is much more, as shown in the table. The growth rate of crimes against women is more than two times (90%) that of the total crimes committed in the corresponding period. Earlier, many cases were not registered due to the social stigma attached to rape and molestation cases, although experts agree that the cases of unreported sexual assault are still much higher.

Table 1: Incidence of cognizable Crimes under IPC, 1981-2011

Crime	Year			% change in 2011 over 1991
	1991	2001	2011
1	2	3	4	5
Reported cognizable crimes  under IPC
Total	1,678,375	1,769,308	2,325,575	39
Crime against women
Rape	10,410	16,075	24,206	133
kidnapping & abduction	20,079	22,487	35,565	77
Molestation	23,629	34,124	42,968	81
Sexual harassment	-	9,746	8,570	-
Source:  National Crime Records Bureau,  Government of India

Recent year saw several gruesome cases of rape and assault on women; they shocked not only the country but the world as a whole. Of the total number of crimes against women reported in 2011, more than three-fourths related to kidnapping & abduction, molestation and sexual harassment. First two types of crimes increased more than 80% in the last twenty years. However, rape is the fasted growing crime in India, with registered rape cases increased from 10410 in 1991 to 24206 in 2011, that is by 133%. Sources show that rape cases in India have more than doubled between 1997 and 2011. The latest figures released by the Rajasthan State Crime Records Bureau (2013) reveals that nearly 15 women are being sexually harassed, while nine cases of rape are being registered everyday in Rajasthan. A huge increase has been reported in the number of rape cases despite a nationwide cry over the crimes against women in the wake of the infamous Nirbhaya gang rape case in Delhi in the last month of 2012. The rape cases in Rajasthan increased by 60% in 2013 compared to 2012.

The statistics of increasing violence against women tell their own story. In 2011 alone, there were 24,206 registered cases of rape of which 2,579 were registered in the 89 cities. There were as many as 51, 538 cases of molestation and sexual harassment of which around 25 per cent took place in cities. Thus a majority of rape and sexual harassment victims are from the villages and small towns, of whom substantial numbers are poorer sections of women and children who live and work in insecure environments.

The National Crime Records Bureau in its report has stated that people under the age group of 16-25 have been responsible for 56% of crimes committed in the country, and their involvement has increased significantly in recent years. The youth crime harms communities, creates a culture of fear. The reason needs to be found out: Is it due to unemployment or excessive freedom that prevails in our society? Is the frustration alone forcing people towards crime? Is the deteriorating governance pushing youth towards crime?  It is true that there are many factors that affected the level of reported crime in an area or jurisdiction. Viewed in this way, crime is a dependent variable, i.e., it is dependent on all the other factors that might give rise to crime in a jurisdiction. Among various factors, it is well established that the volume of crime within a jurisdiction is highly correlated with the population characteristics such as change in size and density or its demographic and socioeconomic makeup. [3]  In this context the role of unwanted fertility (defined as actual fertility in excess of desired fertility) has not been given due importance in understanding the crime scenario in a jurisdiction.

The crimes are more in some states of India as compared to others, as shown in Table 2. In 2012, for example, the high rate of kidnapping & abduction of women and girls was reported by the northern states of Rajasthan (8.15 per 100,000 females), Uttar Pradesh (8.14) and Bihar (7.9) while states of Kerala (1.2) and Andhra Pradesh recorded very low crime rates.  In facts, the kidnapping & abduction rate in Rajasthan was 6.7 times that of Kerala and 2.5 times that of Andhra Pradesh located in the southern India. The table also indicates that wherever the population growth (col. 4) and unwanted fertility (col.5) are low, and female literacy (col.6) is high the incidence of crime against women is also low.

Table 2: Incidence of kidnapping & abduction of women and girls during 2012 and other information, selected states

State	Kidnapping & Abduction		Selected population characteristics
			% decadal  population growth (2001-11)	Number  of unwanted births  per woman (2005-06)	% of females literate  (2011)
	Incidence	Rate of crime per 100,000 females
1	2	3	4	5	6
Rajasthan	2,697	8.15	1.0	1.0	53
Uttar Pradesh	7,910	8.14	1.5	1.5	59
Bihar	3,789	7.90	1.6	1.6	53
India	38,262	6.54	0.8	0.8	66
Tamil Nadu	1,693	5.00	0.4	0.4	74
Andhra Pradesh	1,403	3.29	0.3	0.3	60
Kerala	214	1.20	0.1	0.1	92
Sources: Crime in India 2012 Statistics, National Crime Records Bureau, Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India, Census of India 2011 and national Family Health Survey (2005-06).

The rising crime wave has raised many disturbing questions. Is India’s social system crumbling? Are the youngsters really more crime-prone than they have been in the past?  What then is the solution? The solution lies in focusing on certain policy issues.  In this context the role of population characteristics like unwanted fertility has not been given due importance in analyzing the crime scenario in India. Therefore, an understanding the exact nature of the relationship between these two variables may be helpful to policy makers and criminologists who sometimes must make responsible comparisons of jurisdictional crime rates.

One has to recognize that population is an important factor in understanding the crime scenario in India. India’s population has grown from 846 million in 1991 to 1210 million in 2011 that is by 43% in last twenty years,  and is still growing by around 17 to 18 million every year. The population growth is mainly fuelled by unwanted fertility. More than four in ten pregnancies are unintended/unplanned or unwanted by the women who experience them and half or more of these pregnancies result in births that spur continued population growth. According to estimates in the National Family Health Survey-3 (2005-06), 21% of all births to currently married women during the five years between 2001 and 2006 were unplanned or unintended; 11% were reported by the parents as having never been wanted. Only one percent of first births were never wanted, but nearly 30% of all fourth or higher order births were so reported. In theory, this incidence of unwanted births implies that nearly 6 million births occurring in 2005-06 would never have occurred had the complete availability of perfect fertility control permitted couples to realize their preferences. And these estimates are all conservative. Also, the level of unwanted fertility could be measured by comparing the total wanted (desired) fertility rate with the total (actual) fertility rate (TFR). A comparison of the TFR with the total wanted fertility rate indicates the level of unwanted fertility. The unwanted fertility for India as a whole was   30% of actual or total fertility recoded by the NFHS-3. It means around 218 million persons of the total population in the young age group 0-35 years in India were the product of unwanted childbearing in 2005-06. Unwanted fertility is highest among those whose levels of education and income are lowest. The level of unwanted fertility in India has increased significantly from 22% in 1992-93 to 30% in 2005-06, indicating decreasing control over reproductive process.[4]

Not all unwanted births become unwanted children. Many, perhaps most, are eventually accepted and loved indistinguishably from earlier births that were deliberately planned. But many are not; and the costs to them, to their siblings and parents, and to society at urge are considerable, though not easy to measure. The costs are not only financial. The social, health, and psychological costs must be enormous, as noted by the Rockefeller Commission on Population and the American Future.[5]  As a result, the consequences of unwanted fertility are serious, slowing down the process of socio-economic development. It is because unwanted childbearing results in poor physical growth, reduced school performance, diminished   concentration in daily tasks thus impacting work capacity and work output resulting in diminished earning capacity. The impact of this is reflected in widespread malnutrition, poverty, unemployment and weak governance.[6]  And all these contribute to distressingly high and unacceptable level of crime, and in fact, that is happening in India in recent years.

There are several reasons behind unwanted childbearing, but most important one is related to the imperfect control over the reproductive process.  So letting women have the means to manage their childbearing will help to make India a more stable and equal place as well as less prone to crime. Key to this approach should be to provide quality reproductive health services with contraceptive choices. When women have access to contraception appropriate to their needs, desires, and budgets, the potential benefits are many, including reduced maternal and child mortality as well as lesser number of abortions and unwanted pregnancies. In addition to its health benefits, family planning allows families and communities to invest more in education and health care and helps reduce poverty as well as crimes. Children by choice not by chance could be another effective way to reduce incidence crimes especially against women.

In early sixties, the United Stares of America adopted the similar strategy to reduce the incidence of crimes. A book that has had a large and rapid sale, Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything by the University of Chicago economist Steven Levitt and New York Times journalist Stephen J. Dubner, establishes the effect of legalized abortion on crime.[7] They argue that since children who are unwanted or whose parents cannot care for them well are more likely to become criminals and that an inverse correlation is observed between the availability of abortion and subsequent crime. Moreover, children born under these conditions are usually less fortunate. It is argued and proved  that the legalization of abortion in the  United  States of America, largely due to the Supreme Court's decision in  Roe v. Wade, , has reduced crime in the late 20th and early 21st centuries. Also, the 1972 Rockefeller Commission on Population and the American Future is one of the better known early versions of this claim. The Commission cited research stating that the children of women denied an abortion “turned out to have been registered more often with psychiatric services, engaged in more antisocial and criminal behavior, and have been more dependent on public assistance”. Opponents generally reject these statistics and observations, and argue that abortion has negative effects on society or decrease in crime is brought about in other ways.[8]

We, therefore, strongly believe that all couples in India, regardless of age, or income, should be enabled to avoid unwanted births. Major efforts should be made to enlarge and improve the opportunity for individuals to control their own fertility, aiming toward the development of a basic ethical principle that only wanted children are brought into the world.  In other words, we   recommend a national policy and voluntary program to reduce unwanted fertility, to improve the outcome of pregnancy, and to improve the health of children. So our immediate agenda must be to revamp the family planning programme.[9] In addition, more money needs to be poured into quality education and towards creating more opportunities for the poor and the young.[10] Though there are so many laws against rape, molestation and other forms of sexual harassment in India, sexual assaults continue with immunity. India needs more convictions. Hope, the comprehensive criminal law reforms suggested by the Justice Verma Committee and approved by the Parliament will provide for quicker trial and enhanced punishment for criminals accused of committing sexual assault against women. 

 

---

[1] Refer: “Population Trends and Crime: What should we be planning for?” Fact Sheet 13, July 1999, a publication of the John Howard Society of Ontario.

[2] Crime in India 2012 Statistics, Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India.

[3] For details, see: James J. Nolan.  “Establishing the statistical relationship between population size and UCR crime rate: Its impact and implications”. Journal of Criminal Justice 32 (2004) 547 – 555.

[4] Kothari Devendra. 2011. Implications of Emerging Demographic Scenario: Based on the Provisional Results of Census of India 2011, A Brief, a publication of Management Institute of Population and Development, Parivar Seva Sanstha, New Delhi. Also see: Kothari, Devendra. 2013.  “Managing unwanted fertility in India: Way forward”, a paper is prepared for the National Conference on National Rural Health Mission: A Review of Past Performance and Future Directions, organized by the Institute of Economic Growth, New Delhi , August 6-8, 2013.

[5] As observed by the Rockefeller Commission on Population and the American Future. Refer at:http://www.population-security.org/rockefeller/011_human_reproduction.htm.

[6] Kothari Devendra. 2012. “Empowering Women in India through better Reproductive Healthcare”, in Sheel Sharma and Angella Atwaru Ateri (eds.) Empowering Women through Better HealthCare and Nutrition in Developing Countries, New Delhi: Regency Publications.

[7] Refer: Steven Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner. 2005. Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything, William Morrow.

[8] For details, refer: “Abortion and Crime: Unwanted Children and Out-of-Wedlock Births”, by John R. Lott Jr.and John E. Whitley Yale Law & Economics Research Paper No. 254, 2001. 

[9] Kothari Devendra and Sudha Tewari. 2009. Slowing Population Growth in India: Challenges, Opportunities and the Way Forward. MIPD Policy Brief No. 2, Management Institute of Population and Development, (Parivar Seva Sanstha, New Delhi).

[10] Refer post by author: School education in India needs intensive care, not a quick fix at: http://kotharionindia.blogspot.in/2013/12/education-in-india-needs-intensive-care.html.

Population and Development: India at the Crossroads (An agenda for action)

There is sense of restlessness in the country. Every Indian knows what’s wrong. What every Indian wants to know is how it’s going to be right. After 65 years, political rhetoric will not do.[1]

Devendra Kothari PhD

Population and Development Analyst

Forum for Population Action

This post is an effort to encourage discussion and debate about what should be India’s priorities to achieve inclusive growth. The debate between two of the finest Indian economists — Amartya Sen and Jagdish Bhagwati — reflects the deeper question facing India’s political leaders and policy makers.[2] The debate between Bhagwati and Panagariya on the one side, and Sen and Dreze on the other has sharpened after the two sets of researchers released their new books on India.[3]  While Sen believes that India should invest more in its welfare and social schemes to reduce inequality, otherwise, inequality will widen and the growth process itself will falter. Bhagwati, on the other hand, holds up growth as the panacea for all of India’s ills. He believes that growth may raise inequality initially but sustained growth will eventually raise enough resources for the State to redistribute and mitigate the effects of the initial inequality.

The ongoing debate has generated more heat than light. This is presented as distribution versus growth argument.  However, I strongly believe that India needs a balanced ‘development’ strategy. Mere focus on boosting growth through large investment and opening up the economy without emphasizing on human development is not a panacea for India’s long-term socio-economic challenges. On the other hand, an excessive focus on subsidy and dole-driven welfare policies could slam the brakes on the economy and drag people below the poverty line, rather than push up per capita income and welfare. Culture of freebies will not help in the long term. The Food Security Bill, for example, is a bad policy measure and does no service to the poor.[4] It fails the country on the two critical counts: on economic implications and winning the war against malnutrition. Real prosperity, especially inclusive growth can only be brought about by focusing on basic structural changes aiming to improve human resources, as has been done initially by many developing countries including China, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Brazil and Mexico. "Re-imagining India", published recently by McKinsey, has scores of suggestions on "unlocking the potential of Asia`s next superpower". It is argued that human development however  is vital if we are to re-boot India.[5] If the rest of the developing world and especially Asian countries have forged ahead, it is because after 1950 they took extra care of education and health including reproductive health as well as living environment.

India has not given due recognition to the concept of equality in sharing the resources in its population and development planning. Even today, after more than twenty years of economic reforms, the visitor to India - whether from developed or developing world - is struck by the gross inequalities.  That is why during the last few years India has been increasingly witnessing mass risings like the Anna’s anti-corruption movement in 2011, and the Delhi gang rape uprising of new generation in 2012. In other words, there is a sense of restlessness in the country.  There is an urgent need to have a focussed agenda to achieve the “inclusive growth”.[6] The post aims in this direction.

No doubt indicators of human development such as health including maternal and infant mortality, education, living conditions, gender equality, etc. show steady improvement, but they also suggest that the progress is slow and India continues to lag behind several other developing  countries. Other indicators of deprivation suggest that the proportion of the population deprived of a minimum level of living is much higher. For example, National Family Health Survey-3 (NFHS-3) shows that almost 46% of the children in the 0 to 3 years’ age group suffered from malnutrition in 2005–06, and what is even more disturbing is that the estimate shows almost no decline from the level of 47% reported in 1998 by NFHS-2.

In fact, things are going from bad to worse. India’s rank in the latest UN’s Human Development Report has fallen from 128 in 2003 to 136 out of 187 countries and territories in 2013. Further, India still has quite some way to go in bridging the gender gap in the areas of health, education and economics, if not politics. It has been ranked 101 among 136 countries in the The Global Gender Gap Report 2013 released by the World Economic Forum. Also, the country has fallen from 96^th rank in 2006 to 101 in the last 8 years, revealing a stark and deep rooted gender gap in India. In addition, recent studies paint a grim picture of education, posing the risk of eroding the long-term competitiveness of World’s fourth largest economy. The secondary students from the States of Tamil Nadu and Himachal Pradesh, showpieces for education development in India, who were put on a global stage stood very low on their reading, math and science abilities. India ranked second last among the 73 countries that participated in the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), conducted by the OECD Secretariat to evaluate education systems worldwide. China, which participated in PISA for the first time along with India, scored the highest in reading. It also topped the charts in mathematics and science. And finally, India’s own Pratham`s Annual Status of Education Report (ASER), 2012, assessing schools in rural India, found declining attendance, over-reliance on private tuitions and declining reading and mathematical abilities of children in the 6 to 14 years age category. In just three years between 2010 and 2012, percentage of fifth graders in rural public schools who can read second grade-level text has declined from 51% to 42%. Further, achievement levels in arithmetic have fallen drastically. Percentage of fifth graders who could do a simple two-digit subtraction has fallen from 71% to 53% in three years. Today, more children are going to school but what they are learning is not clear.  This is alarming and pathetic. Furthermore, a recent report of OECD reported that India’s income inequality doubled in the two decades to 2011.

 

All this is a rather   shameful reflection of the prevailing conditions in a country that is said to be on a growth song, and indicate that India is heading towards an unstable situation of extreme danger or difficulty that could lead to despair, social instability, political strife, policymaking paralysis and capital flight as well as a rapid collapse in growth rates. 

 

How forge ahead? It appears that efforts made over the years to improve the quality of human resources have partially been neutralized by neglecting some basic areas. The threshold for dire poverty in developing countries is set by the World Bank at $1.25 a day of consumption (rather than income). This is an international yardstick by which poverty level in developing countries is measured. Accordingly, around one-third of India's population (about 400 million people) is living below International Poverty Line.[7] It is observed that more and more people in India could fall into extreme poverty due to soaring food and energy prices in coming years.[8]  As such, one has  to empower Indians, especially pooer ones  to participate in the economy, both as producers and consumers, as argued by Prof. Sunil Khilani of King’s India Institute, London.[9] For this, more than food security act and NREGA, India needs universal public health, education better living conditions, etc., as discussed below:

 

One has to recognize that population is an important factor in development, especially when it is growing seemingly out of control since it leads to a significant diversion of national investable resources to consumption which could otherwise be used for increasing investment and productivity and for improving the quality of public services. India’s population has grown from 361 million in 1951 to 1210 million in 2011,  and is still growing by around 17 to 18 million every year. India’s population is projected to peak at 1700 million in 2060. The population growth is mainly fuelled by unwanted fertility. More than four in ten pregnancies are unintended/unplanned or simply unwanted by the women who experience them and half or more of these pregnancies result in births that spur continued population growth.  Around 26.5 million children are born in India every year and out of this about 6 million births have been classified as unwanted. It is estimated that around 450 million people out of 1200 million in 2011 in India who were product of unwanted pregnancies, and most of them are from the lower economic strata.[10] The consequences of unintended pregnancy are serious, slowing down the process of socio-economic development as well as process of change, and  is being  reflected in widespread hunger, poverty, under educated labour force, unemployment, , regressing governance as well as increasing scarcity of basic resources like food, water and space despite concerted developmental efforts since 1991.

India’s large unwanted fertility, a threat to sustainable development and achieving inclusiveness, demands immediate attention. On the other hand, most of the developing countries, during their initial stage of development, gave importance or urgency to the issues like population stabilization including maternal and child health as well as literacy. There may be several reasons behind unwanted childbearing, but most important one is related to the imperfect control over the reproductive process.  So letting women have the means to manage their childbearing will help to make India a more stable and equal place. Key to this new approach should be to provide quality reproductive health services with contraceptive choices. When women have access to contraception appropriate to their needs, desires, and budgets, the potential benefits are many, including reduced maternal and child mortality as well as lesser number of abortions and unwanted pregnancies. In addition to its health benefits, family planning allows families and communities to invest more in education and health care and helps reduce poverty, as argued by the President of Population Council, Peter J. Donaldson. Children by choice not by chance are the only way poor can aspire a better life. 

Another issue which needs equal attention is quality of education. Many Indians including policy makers believe that India has an inevitable advantage in its young “human capital”. Can India take advantage of this demographic window in the next couple of decades and garner its benefits? Today, more children are going to school but what they are learning is not clear. Can they get any job in the market if they continue such education?  Unless education is rescued from quagmire of mediocrity, all talk about realizing India’s demographic dividend will be without substance; and the country would be inching closer to socio-economic disaster. Right to Education with quality must be available to all, since deep frustration begins with half or low quality education. The enjoyment of the education could be enhanced if there is an acknowledgement of the problems that beset India’s educational system and if there is a willingness to solve such problems. There is an urgent need to   explore issues which need urgent attention.[11]

Physical living conditions are equally important in producing an enabling environment for quality of life and inclusive growth. Findings of the Census of India 2011 – Tables on Houses, Household Amenities and Assets indicate that   sub-human living conditions still haunt people.  Only 47% of households have a source of water within the premises while 53% of households travel more than half a kilometre in rural areas and more than 100 meters in urban areas to fetch their supplies. This problem is further compounded by lack of access to sanitation. About half of total households in India still defecate in open. This situation is particularly piquant for women and girls.  It is estimated that around 290 million women in India in 2011, the worst sufferers of open defecation, continue with the age-old practice even after 20 years of economic reforms. Only 28% of the households use LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) as a cooing fuel. Around two-thirds of the total households have electricity as the main source of lighting in the country in 2011. Any improvement in access to toilet facilities, water, electricity and LPG is likely to result in a considerable reduction in domestic drudgery especially for girls/women, freeing up their time for other activities including schooling and perusing professional life.

India is simply not doing enough for its women to improve access to resources and freedom of movement as well as improving decision making power.  There is an urgent need to rethink as how to expedite the process of women empowerment in a patriarchal and traditional society with innumerable obstacles.  After the Delhi gang rape murder, crimes against women are engaging national attention like never before, and there is greater demand for effective crime prevention, strict implementation of law and expeditious justice delivery.  But this alone is not going to help. Let us not construe the problem so narrowly. To deal with a problem that has roots in social behaviour and prejudice, mere legislation is not enough. To achieve the long-term vision, however, one has to create an environment where sons and daughters are equally valued. At the same time women empowerment requires undoing of patriarchal myths.  For this, women must have access to education and training along with economic empowerment through property rights, favourable credit and entrepreneurial support as well as opportunity in paid employment. Insuring reproductive rights and better living conditions could be another effective way to empower women in India.

In the broader context of the debate on India’s inclusive growth, it is appropriate to accelerate the process of urbanization. Urbanisation is the process in which the number of people living in the urban areas increases compared to the rural ones. It is considered as the engine of economic and social change. Because of higher levels of productivity and wages in urban areas in general and large cities in particular, the “consumption poverty” at least is expected to be lower than in rural areas.[12] As such, the migrants from the backward regions are expected to benefit migrating into urban areas.  

The level of urbanization in India, unlike the experience of several developing countries at comparable levels of economic growth, has been quite low. It increased sluggishly from 17.3% in 1951 to 31.2% in 2011. The definition of urban seems to be quite broad, and hence, it includes areas which still do not show any dynamism as the term urbanization would tend to imply. As a result, a sizable proportion of so-called urban population virtually live in “rural areas”.  There is an urgent need to expedite the process of “real” urbanization in the country to achieve a balanced development.

Also, economic growth across regions has not been balanced, with some of the most backward areas, mainly located in the four large north Indian States of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, yet to experience any significant growth. The delivery of essential social services like health and education at the grass roots level is also poor and this is a major causative factor in unequal development.

In sum, it is indeed sad that the policy makers/politicians in India who are talking of inclusive growth are yet to suggest an effective plan of action. It is high time that political parties focus on improving people’s ability to earn more rather than dolling out subsidies that make people dependent on the political class and system.  The immediate vision of India’s development planning must, therefore, ensure broad-based improvement in the quality of life of the people, especially those belonging to the bottom of pyramid. In this context, the above noted action areas -  namely reproductive health, education, living conditions and gender equality as well as higher level of “real” urbanization -     will play decisive role. These are much bigger and effective interventions and India must think about.

---

[1] Based on the observation of Mr. Shekhar Kapur, Filmmaker on poll promises.

[2] For  the Sen-Bhagwati debate, link at:

http://www.livemint.com/Politics/zvxkjvP9KNfarGagLd5wmK/Everything-you-wanted-to-know-about-SenBhagwati-debate.html.

[3] Jean Dreze and Amartya Sen. 2013. An Uncertain Glory: India and its contradictions, Allen Lane; Jagdish Bhagwati and Arvind Panagariya. 2012. India’s Trust with Destiny, Harper Collins.

[4] See author’s post - Food Security Bill and malnutrition in India- at http://kotharionindia.blogspot.in/2013/06/food-security-bill-and-malnutrition-in.html.

[5] For details, see: Reimagining India: Unlocking the Potential of Asia's Next Superpower by McKinsey & Company, 2013.

[6] The Twelfth Five Year Plan (2012-2017) aims at “faster, sustainable and more inclusive growth”. But how, it is not very clear.

[7] As per the Planning Commission, Government of India, at the all India level share of the population below poverty line (BPL) was 21.9% in 2011-12, almost 270 million. This means that every fifth Indian lives below the poverty line.  The government has set the bar abysmally low, defining as BPL anyone earning Rs. 27.20 or less in rural areas and up to Rs 33.30 in urban areas. This is totally erroneous.

[8] “India: Why pace of development is slow?” Blog Entries by Devendra K Kothari at:  http://kotharionindia.blogspot.in/2013/09/india-why-pace-of-development-is-slow.html.

[9] See article: “Body of unequal evidence” by Sunil Khilani at http://indiadying.blogspot.in/

[10] Devendra Kothari, “Implications of Emerging Demographic Scenario: Based on the Provisional Results of Census of India 2011”,  A Brief,  a publication of Management Institute of Population and Development – A Unit of Parivar Seva Sanstha, New Delhi, 2011.  

[11] “Education in India needs intensive care, not a quick fix (Part II)” Blog Entries by Devendra K Kothari at:  http://kotharionindia.blogspot.in/2013/12/education-in-india-needs-intensive-care.html.

[12] Mitra Anup. 2013. Insights into Inclusive Growth, Employment and Wellbeing in India, Springer, New Delhi.