Sunday, 30 November 2014

Eradicating child lobour!

Devendra Kothari PhD
Population and Development Analyst
Forum for Population Action

If a more rapid reduction in the incidence of child labor is a policy goal, improving school education and expediting the process of population stabilization may be more useful solutions to the child labor problem than punitive measures designed to prevent children from earning income.

The shared Nobel Peace Prize 2014 for an Indian, Kailash Satyarthi, a crusader against child labor, is both a feather in India’s cap, as well as a grim reminder of the scourge that persists in vast tracts of the country’s hinterland.[1] Satyarthi has dedicated over 30 years of his life to fight child slavery, a crime that affects millions of children across India. He has become famous for raiding and rescuing children in commercial establishments. Satyarthi has actively contributed to the rescue of around 84,000 child slaves in the last three decades. These children have been terrorized and dehumanized since their youngest age. Imagine the kind of hell these children are coming from. They come from a place where children are beaten, abused, treated like a production tool and destroyed. Mostly, they are forced to work in dingy factories, wasting away their childhood in making firecrackers and doing carpet or zari work, among others. They do not have a voice: they cannot press for their rights, they cannot carry out demonstrations.  The road to recovery for such children is very long, and Kailash and his organization - Bachpan Bachao Andolan (Save the Childhood Movement)   play a crucial role in this process. He also founded the widely recognized international tag “RugMark” that guarantees carpets being sold are made in factories free of child labor. The Nobel Prize salutes Satyarthi’s work for silently helping them find their voice.

This post discusses the issue of “child labor”, and suggests a way out as how to expedite the process of elimination of child lobour in the world with special reference to India.   

According to the International Labour Organisation (ILO), not all work done by children should be classified as child labor that is to be targeted for eradication. Children’s participation in work that does not affect their health and personal development or interfere with their schooling is generally regarded as being something positive. This includes activities such as helping their parents around the home, assisting in a family business or earning pocket money outside school hours and during school holidays. These kinds of activities contribute to children’s development and to the welfare of their families; they provide them with skills and experience, and help to prepare them to be productive members of society during their adult life. On the other hand, the term “child labour” is often defined as work that deprives children of their childhood, their potential and their dignity, and that may compromise their physical, mental, social or educational development.

UNICEF, the UN agency dedicated to children's rights and welfare, estimates that around 150 million children aged 5 to 14 in developing countries are involved in child labor. This represents about 15 per cent of all children in this age group. [2]  Sub-Saharan Africa has the largest proportion of child labourers (27 per cent of children aged 5 to 14 years). In South Asia, 12 per cent of children in this age group are performing potentially harmful work compared to 5 per cent of children in Central and Eastern Europe as well as in other parts of the developing world (Figure 1).  In absolute terms, Asia, being the most densely populated region of the world, has the largest number of child workers. 61 per cent are found in Asia (especially in South Asia), 32 per cent in Africa and remaining 7 per cent in Latin America and elsewhere.

To employ children is illegal in India, but the country has one of the largest working child populations in the world. There are close to 50 million child laborers in the country and more than 10 million of them in bonded labor, having been sold by their families to work off loans they couldn’t repay and for some other reasons. A big chunk of these children are used as cheap labor in hazardous factories making bricks, carpets, glass bangles, fireworks, as well as in rice mills, cotton fields and mining, among others and have been found to suffer from malnutrition, impaired vision, deformities from sitting long hours in cramped over-crowded work places. In addition, millions of underage workers are employed as domestic help.

Figure 1: Child labor in India and rest of the developing world


India is in green with 10-20% incidence levels, along with countries in peach (20-30%), red (30-40%) and black (>40%). The lowest incidence level is shown in yellow (<10%).
             Source: UNICEF and World Bank

Why Child lobour persists?
Available studies reveal that poverty, poor quality of education, and presence of large informal economy are the driving forces behind the prevalence of child labor worldwide. ILO suggests poverty is the greatest single cause behind child labour. For impoverished households, income from a child's work is usually crucial for his or her own survival or for that of the household. Income from working children, even if small, may be between 25 to 40% of the household income. Lack of meaningful alternatives, such as affordable schools and quality education is another major factor driving children to harmful labour. Children work because they have nothing better to do. Even when schools are sometimes available, they are too far away, difficult to reach, unaffordable or the quality of education is so poor that parents wonder if going to school is really worth it.

Mehrotra and Biggeri have studied the macroeconomic factors that encourage child labour. [3] They focus their study on five Asian nations including India. They found that child labour is a serious problem in all five, but it is not a new problem. Macroeconomic causes encouraged widespread child labour across the world, over most of human history. They suggest that inflexibility and structure of labour market, size of informal economy, inability of industries to scale up and lack of modern manufacturing technologies are major macroeconomic factors affecting demand and acceptability of child labour.

Eradicating child lobour:

No doubt, poverty is the greatest single force driving children into the workplace, but it is not easy to lift people out of poverty in a short time or with great speed. Edmonds and Pavcnik have noted:  “Historical growth rates suggest that reducing child labor through improvements in living standards alone will take time”.[4] Further, enacting legislations or laws against the importation of products (like textiles, carpets, etc.) produced by child labor to “protect” children from exploitation and promote their education would have a devastating effect especially on the lives of those for whom it is being designed to protect, as argued by Thomas R. DeGregori, an economics professor at the University of Houston.[5] 


Satyarthi’s struggle has succeeded in rescuing around 84,000 children, even as the Nobel committee estimates there are still 168 million child labourers around the world. So what could be an alternative path to eradicate the child labour? Economist Swaminathan Aiyar argues:  “No matter how many establishments Satyarthi and others raid successfully, child labour will continue till decent schools imparting real skills are available to all”. [6]  The latest report of Pratham, an Indian NGO, shows that the proportion of class V students who can read a class II text has fallen 15% points since 2005, and the proportion of class VIII students who can do division has fallen 23% points. What will poor people gain by sending children to such schools? As such, the policy makers need to articulate their views as how to ensure quality of education and skill development across the country. [7] In other word, unless education is rescued from the quagmire of mediocrity, all talk about eliminating child labour will be without substance.

In addition, efforts towards population stabilization[8] could be another but very effective step to minimize the incidence of child labour, as has been observed in the East and South-East Asia (see Figure 1).  The replacement level fertility of 2.1 children per woman, required to initiate the process of population stabilization, has already been achieved by most of the East and South-East Asian countries: South Korea (1.2 children per woman), Thailand (1.5), China (1.6) and even Vietnam (1.9), as shown in Table 1. As a result, the proportion children in the youngest age group    (0-14 years) have declined significantly in the last 30-40 years.  For example, the total fertility in China declined from 6 children per woman in 1970 to 1.6 in 2010 and consequently the proportion of child population in the age group 0-14 declined from 40 percent to 18 percent during the corresponding period, as per UN Population Division.  On the other hand, population growth and the need for contraception are still major concerns in the countries where incidence of child labour is very high. In most of these countries, fertility rates remain very high. Sub-Saharan Africa in particular has experienced less change than Asia or Latin America: Its total fertility rate is around 6 children per woman and the youngest age group has more than 45 per cent of total population. In Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation, the average woman gives birth to more than 6 children in her lifetime and here incidence of child labour is one of the highest in the world.

Table 1: Trends in total fertility, child population in age group 0-14 years and incidence of child labour.
Country
Number of children per woman (TFR)
% of total population 0-14 years
% of children aged 5 to 14 years classified as child labour

1970
2010
1970
2010

1
2
3
4
5
6
East and South-East ASIA:
China
6.0
1.6
40
18
Less than 10%
South Korea
4.7
1.2
42
16
Less than 10%
Thailand
6.0
1.5
44
23
Less than 10%
Vietnam
6.5
1.9
44
23
Less than 10%
South Asia
India
5.7
2.7
41
30
10-20%
Nepal
6.0
3.0
41
37
More than 40%
Pakistan
6.6
3.7
43
35
10-20%
Shri Lanka
4.7
2.1
40
25
Less than 10%
Sub-Saharan Africa

Chad
6.4
6.9
43
49
30-40%
Mali
6.9
6.8
41
47
More than 40%
Niger
7.3
7.6
48
50
More than 40%
Nigeria
6.4
6.1
43
44
30-40%
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision and UNICEF/World Bank

The case of India is interesting one. In spite of economic development, India could not achieve a substantial breakthrough to initiate the process of population stabilization. In the last forty years, the total fertility declined from 5.7 children per woman in 1970 to 2.7 in 2010, whereas the rate of decline was much faster in other emerging economies during the corresponding period.  As a result, the proportion of population in the age group 0-14 is still high and so is the incidence of child labour.  High fertility in India and elsewhere is mainly fuelled by unintended pregnancies.[9] Around 26 million children are born in India every year and out of this about 5.5 million births have been classified as unplanned/unintended. And there is no significant decline in the proportion of unwanted births in the last twenty years, as shown in Table 2 (Col. 5).

       Table 2: Trends in unwanted child bearing, India
Year
Total Population (in million)
Crude birth rate/1000 population
Total births
(in million)
Per cent  of unwanted births
Absolute number of unwanted births.
1
2
3
4
5
6
1991
846.4
29.5
24.97
23.1
5.77
2001
1028.7
25.4
26.13
21.6
5.64
2011
1210.2
21.8
26.38
21.0
5.54
Computed from the data obtain from the Registrar General of India and the National Family Health Survey, 1, 2 and 3. Also see: Kothari Devendra. 2011. Implications of Emerging Demographic Scenario: Based on the Provisional Results of Census of India 2011, A Brief, a publication of Management Institute of Population and Development, Parivar Seva Sanstha, New Delhi.

Unwanted pregnancies are a key reason for the stubborn resilience of child labour. Since these pregnancies contribute significantly to galloping population growth, which consequently compromises provision of adequate social services like education and health. “More than two in five pregnancies worldwide are unintended by the women who experience them, and half or more of these pregnancies result in births that spur continued population growth”, noted by Robert Engelman, who authored the highly acclaimed book: More: Population, Nature, and What Women Want. 
      
To reduce the incidence of child labour in India and elsewhere, the main attention, therefore, should be on reducing the incidence of unwanted fertility.  Unintended pregnancies are primarily caused by nonuse and/or failure of contraceptives, implying that correct and consistent use of effective contraceptives can lead to prevention of unintended pregnancies, thus revamping of family planning program should be on the priority list. In short, it is clear that lower fertility is a vital ingredient in getting children out of the workplace and into schools. Further, reducing the proportion of school-age children reduces the burden on schools. Reducing child dependency also allows families and nations to invest more in education, improving the quality of the future labor force. [10]




[1] Kailash Satyarthi, 60, shares the prestigious Swedish prize with Pakistani teenager Malala Yousafzai, who braved the fundamentalist Taliban’s guns to pursue her education and has become an icon for the crusade for educating girls.

[2] For details, see:  http://data.unicef.org/child-protection/child-labour

[3] Mehrotra, Santosh and Mario Biggeri. 2007. Asian Informal Workers: Global Risks, Local Protection,  Routledge Studies in the Growth Economies of Asia.

[4] Eric V. Edmonds and Nina Pavcnik (Winter 2005). "Child Labour in the Global Economy". Journal of Economic Perspectives 19 (1): 199–220.

[5] Thomas R. DeGregori, 2002.  Child Labor or Child Prostitution?  Cato Institute, Washington, DC.

[6] Refer article by Aiyar: Child labour can’t end without good schools for all at http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Swaminomics/child-labour-cant-end-without-good-schools-for-all/

[7] Kothari, Devendra. 2014. Education in India needs intensive care, not a quick fix, RAEA Policy Paper No. 1. Rajasthan Adult Education Association, Jaipur.

[8] A population has stabilized when the number of births has come into balance with the number of deaths, with the result that, the effects of immigration aside, the size of the population remains relatively constant.

[9] Unintended pregnancies, defined as pregnancies that are mistimed or unwanted, pose significant public health concern especially in low- and middle-income countries due to their association with adverse health, social, and economic outcomes.  

[10] Julie DaVanzo and  David M. Adamson, Family Planning in Developing Countries: An Unfinished Success Story, Issue Paper, RAND Corporation, 1998

Friday, 31 October 2014

Making ‘Make in India’ a reality

Devendra Kothari PhD
Population and Development Analyst
Forum for Population Action

India’s large unwanted fertility, a threat to ‘Make in India’ initiative, demands immediate attention.

During U.S. trip, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s important outreach was to American business. This was part of his "Make in India" drive, which he lunched in a high-profile event a day before he embarked on his U.S. trip. He wrote in the Wall Street Journal: “Make in India is our commitment — and an invitation to all — to turn India into a new global manufacturing hub. We will do what it takes to make it a reality.” Also, it was a message occupying front and centre when he met both Japan's Shinzo Abe and China's Xi Jinping. India’s prime minister is known for his pro-business policies, and his steady efforts to draw foreign investments could plant the seeds for a more prosperous India.

But there are some major problems standing in the way of making India an attractive investor destination that can not be solved overnight.  There is a long list of infrastructure problems: patchy electricity, lack of roads, inadequate port facilities. Further, cumbersome labor regulations are among the biggest hurdles to setting up manufacturing in India, which fell to 134th place this year in a World Bank index of countries for doing business. Moreover, land for factories is often impossible to acquire at any price. Another problem is that India’s labor force is skewed toward the agriculture sector, even though its highest groth industries like information technology, telecom, healthcare, and retail are projected to require millions of new skilled workers which they may not be able to find due to poor quality of education. There is another major problem that is red tapism and the culture of babugiri that it has engendered.[1]

In short, India is ranked as one of the worst countries of the world in which to do business. PM Modi is already in the process to create investor friendly environment.  “For the success of ‘Make in India,’ ease of doing business should be given priority,” said PM Modi, while inaugurating ‘Shramev Jayate Karyakram'. He announced labor reforms at this occasion, simplifying employment rules and aiming to give a lift to manufacturing and job creation. At the same time, he announced a program for skills development, in which the Labor Ministry will finance the first two years of training for apprentices in manufacturing units. Also, since he took office in May, Modi has begun to execute on the systematic reformation of India’s inefficient and bureaucratic markets to make them friendlier and more open for investors and businesses. Lots of other measures are under active consideration; and things will be much clearer by next budget. I believe GST will be in place by then, some labor reforms will take place and some important pressing issues like environmental clearance and land acquisition bill will be sorted out as soon as possible.

No doubt, such relatively straightforward steps could make a powerful difference, raising the Indian growth rate by two or even three percentage points from its current 4-5% but not create sustainable environment for ‘Make in India’ to succeed. The Modi government could be wrong in simply believing that the big investments by the American, Chinese and Japanese among others will solve all the problems of India. Some experts are saying that ‘make in India’ is more of hype than substance.

The economic liberalization in India started in 1991 of the country's economic policies, with goal of making the economy more market-oriented and expanding the role of the private and foreign investment. As a result, a decade ago India’s economy was winning new-found respect as a riot of energy and enterprise, but its performance in recent years has been dismal. Now foreign bosses roll their eyes when you mention India, as they did in the 1980s. Growth has fallen to 5%, half the level at the peak of the 2004-08 boom. Inflation and public borrowing are too high. The rupee slumped all the time low in 2013. Private firms are fed up with red tape and graft and have cut investment from a peak of 17% of GDP to 9%. On some measures the country is going backwards in time. In a country that should be industrializing, the contribution to GDP from industry has been declining while manufacturing jobs have stagnated. 

Now question arises: Why India could not reap the fruits of economic liberalization? There may be several reasons behind this sorry state of affairs, but I think that efforts made over the last two decades to improve the economy have mainly been neutralized by the rapid growth of population. The economic reforms completed 20 years in July, 2011, however, during this period, India’s population increased by 365 million, much more than the total population of USA - the third most populous country in the world; and it is still growing by around 17 to 18 million every year.  One has to recognize that population is an important factor in sustainable development, especially when it is growing seemingly out of control since it leads to a significant diversion of national investable resources to consumption which could otherwise be used for increasing investment and productivity and for improving the quality of public services such as education, health, sanitation, provision of safe drinking water, etc

With 1.27 billion people and still growing, India is getting dangerously overcrowded. India is currently the second most populous nation in the world. It will surpass China as the most populous within 5-7 years. India's population is projected to peak at 1.7 billion in 2060. China at its peak in 2025 will have 1.4 billion people. In fact, when China peaks, India will have already surpassed it in population. Many Indians including policy makers see these emerging demographics as a critical advantage in competition with the nation it regards   as its chief rival – China.  Another popularly held belief by India’s policy makers and experts is that as a country becomes economically more prosperous, its fertility declines significantly and leads to a stable population. However, this is a simplistic view of a complex phenomenon.[2] 

Current population growth is mainly fuelled by unwanted fertility. More than four in ten pregnancies are unintended/unplanned or simply unwanted by the women who experience them and half or more of these pregnancies result in births that spur continued population growth.  More than  26 million children are born in India every year and out of this about 6 million births have been classified as unplanned/unintended or simply  unwanted. Based on findings of the National Family Health Surveys 1, 2 and 3, it is estimated that currently there are around 460 million people out of 1270 million in India who are product of unwanted pregnancies, and most of them are from the lower economic strata. [3]  The consequences of unwanted pregnancy are serious, slowing down the process of socio-economic development. It is because unwanted childbearing results in poor physical growth, reduced school performance, diminished   concentration in daily tasks thus impacting work capacity and work output resulting in diminished earning capacity. The impact of unwanted childbearing is reflected in widespread hunger, poverty, unemployment as well as increasing scarcity of basic resources like food, water and space in several parts of India despite concerted developmental efforts since 1991.

There may be several reasons behind unwanted childbearing, but most important one is related to the imperfect control over the reproductive process. While India’s population continues to grow by 17-18 million annually, 15 million  married  women, mostly from  Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh , seek to postpone childbearing, space births, or stop having children, but are not using modern contraception. Often, these women travel far from their communities to reach a health facility, only to return home “empty handed” due to shortages, stock outs, lack of options, and/or non availability of doctors and paramedical staff.  So letting women have the means to manage their childbearing will help to make India a more stable, equal and vibrant place. When women have access to contraception appropriate to their needs, desires, and budgets, the potential benefits are many, including reduced maternal and child mortality as well as lesser number of abortions and unwanted pregnancies. In addition to its health benefits, family planning allows families and communities to invest more in education and health care and helps reduce poverty, as argued by the President of Population Council, Peter J. Donaldson.

Here, children by choice not by chance are the only way poor can aspire a better life and good health. For this, direct efforts aimed at decreasing the rate of natural increase of population should be intensified through greater access to suitable voluntary reproductive health services, information, and education and of acceptable methods of family regulations ( see:  Kothari, Devendra and Sudha Tewari. 2009. “Slowing Population Growth in India: Challenges, Opportunities and the Way Forward”. MIPD Policy Brief No.2, Management Institute of Population and Development, a unit of Parivar Seva Sanstha, New Delhi.). Also, fertility reduction efforts, beyond family planning, should become an integral part of the planning for human development, and should aim at improving quality of life of the family and the status of women.[4]

Food for thought: 
Over the past half century most East Asian countries have prospered by focusing on the reproductive health including population stabilization and education (Table 1). The replacement level fertility of 2.1 children per woman, required to initiate the process of population stabilization, has already been achieved by Thailand (1.5), China (1.6), Brazil (1.7) and even Islamic country Iran (1.9), as shown in Table 1.  Indonesia, another Muslim dominating country is going to attain it within couple of years; However, India will not achieve this level before 2035, as per the UN Population Division. In the last forty years, the total fertility in China declined from 6 children per woman in 1970 to 1.6 in 2010, whereas the rate of decline was much slow in India in the corresponding period (Table 1).[5] On an average, a woman in India produces 2.7 children during her lifetime and more than thirty percent of it could be classified as unwanted fertility.[6] The replacement level fertility of 2.1 children per woman, required to initiate the process of population stabilization, has already been achieved by Thailand (1.5), China (1.6), Brazil (1.7) and even Islamic country Iran (1.9), as shown in Table 1.  Indonesia, another Muslim dominating country is going to attain it within couple of years; However, India will not achieve this level before 2035, as per the UN Population Division.

Table 1: Trends in total fertility, infant mortality and literacy rates, selected countries.
Country
Number of children per woman (TFR)*
Infant deaths per 1000 births (IMR)*
% literates (age 15 and over  who can read and write)**

1970
2010
1970
2010
2012
1
2
3
4
5
6
India
5.7
2.7
132
51
61
Brazil
5.4
1.7
100
24
89
china
6.0
1.6
163
18
92
Indonesia
5.6
2.2
118
29
90
Iran
6.7
1.9
154
21
87
Mexico
6.8
2.3
80
17
86
Thailand
6.0
1.5
76
12
93
Source: *World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision and **CIA World Fact book.

The most important change in the world over the past 40 years has been the rise of China. The increase in its average annual GDP per head from around $300 to $6,750 over the period has not just brought previously unimagined prosperity to hundreds of millions of people, but has also remade the world economy and geopolitics. India’s GDP per head was the same as China’s four decades ago. It is now less than a quarter of the size. Despite a couple of bouts of reform and spurts of growth, India’s economy has never achieved the momentum that has dragged China out of poverty. The human cost, in terms of frustrated, underemployed, ill-educated, unhealthy, hungry people, has been immense. In fact, PM Modi is interested in copying China’s development agenda.   He came to power promising manufacturing jobs, high-speed trains and ‘smart’ cities. Hope India will learn from the East Asian countries, especially China that the reduced population growth rate and quality of education helps in achieving sustainable and faster development.    

The country stands on the threshold of becoming a powerful regional, if not world, power. For this to happen, India's politicians will need the political gumption to initiate a bold population policy. Now, for the first time ever, India has a strong government whose priority is growth and at the same time most of the people including Muslims do not want more children (See article by the author - Growing Population in India and Islam: Some Facts - at http://kotharionindia.blogspot.in/2011/09/growing-population-in-india-and-islam.html).  The Modi government’s most important immediate task is to initiate the process of population stabilization by providing services in un-served and underserved areas by realigning the capacity of health system to deliver quality care to suit the needs of clients. This would bring economic as well as governance benefits. A radical revamps of family planning program is the only way to do justice to the politics of aspiration that is ‘Make in India’.





[1]See: Jug Suraiya, Red tape carpet: For ‘Make in India’ to succeed, Modi needs to end babugiri at http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/jugglebandhi/red-tape-carpet/ 

[2] Kothari, Devendra and S.  Krishnaswamy. 2003. “Poverty, Family Planning and Fertility vis-a vis Management of Family Planning Services in India: A Case Study” in Maria Eugenia COSIO-ZAVALA (ed.) Poverty, Fertility and Family Planning. Paris: CICRED, pp. 335-58.

[3] Kothari, Devendra. 2014. “Managing Unwanted Fertility in India: Way Forward”, Institute of Economic Growth (ed.):   National Rural Health Mission: An Unfinished Agenda, New Delhi: Book Well. 

[4] Kothari, Devendra. 2014. “Empowering women in India: Need for a Feminist Agenda”, Journal of Health Management, 16 (2), pp 233-43. 

[5] For example, in the late seventies, it was quickly realized by the policy makers of China that with half of the population under the age of 21, further growth was inevitable even if each family was quite small. Some drastic measures are needed. The “One Child Policy” backed by quality Family planning services  was the answer to that concern and the Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping announced it in 1979 to limit China’s population growth. Such interventions were also adopted in India during seventies.  Sanjay Gandhi, a member of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, publicly initiated a widespread compulsory sterilization programme to limit population growth. Journalist Vinod Mehta in his 1978 book - The Sajay Story -  states that the sterilization programmes were initiated at the behest of the IMF and the World Bank. But India could not continue with the program.

[6] As per National Family Health survey-3, over all, the total wanted fertility rate of 1.9 children per woman is lower by 0.8 child (that is by 30 percent) than the total Fertility rate of 2.7. This means that if unwanted baths could be eliminated, the Total Fertility Rate would drop to below the replacement level of fertility (1.9 children per woman).