Thursday, 30 June 2016

India needs efficient healthcare system for overall development

Dr. Devendra Kothari
Population and Development Analyst
Forum for Population Action


Happy Doctors’ Day 2016!

"At the moment, India is on the edge and it can take two routes. It can take a route of investing in health and investing in its people and creating a thriving and flourishing future for India which has a part to play in world affairs or it can do what it is doing now and ignore health in which case it will see epidemics sweep across the country creating an unsustainable future and destroying national security.”

Lancet's editor-in-chief Richard Horton.


The world's most revered medical journal - The Lancet - has censured severely Government of India for ignoring health sector and has warned that India is on the “verge of a collapse under the weight of its own ill health”. In an exclusive interview to Times of India, Lancet's editor-in-chief Richard Horton said that failing to combat non communicable diseases like diabetes and heart disease and reduce maternal and child health will cost India's health system and social care "enormously making India collapse”. [1]

Horton’s comments have stirred the ire of Indian health officials, who called them "derogatory" and "not borne out by evidence.  The Ministry of Health and Family Planning   sent a strong worded letter to him and noted that “India has moved from strength to strength and some recent initiatives will ensure improved outcomes for the most vulnerable”. The letter added that the country has made great strides in reducing infant and maternal mortality through its immunization programs as well as increased efforts to control drug-resistant tuberculosis and HIV. [2]

No doubt, in recent years, India has managed to control communicable diseases like malaria, cholera and polio. However, the nation now has to deal with a new breed of lifestyle diseases like diabetes and cardiovascular ailments. Coupled with a sedentary urban lifestyle, increased alcohol consumption and smoking, the urban youth are particularly prone to the aforementioned lifestyle diseases. In addition, large health disparities between states, between rural and urban populations, and across social classes persist. Further, a large proportion of the population is impoverished because of high out-of-pocket health-care expenditures and suffers the adverse consequences of poor quality of care.

Healthcare in India is a big mish mash of great achievements as well as miserable failures. On one hand, we have medical tourism and cutting edge equipment as well as technology and the other we have kids dying of undernourishment and people with treatable conditions. In other words, despite substantial improvements in some health indicators in the past couple of decades, India contributes disproportionately to the global burden of disease, with health indicators that compare unfavorably with other middle-income countries and India's regional neighbors. Known as the diabetes capital of the world, for example, India has about 70 million people with diabetes, which makes a significant proportion of working population. Even its South Asian neighbors like Bangladesh, Nepal, Afghanistan and Sri Lanka have fewer diabetics. Only Pakistan fares worse. One can easily prevent diabetes by effectively controlling its various risk factors such as smoking, obesity and inactive lifestyle.

 

India has neglected its health care, as per the Geneva-based World Economic Forum (WEF).   According to the latest Human Capital Index, released by WEF in June 2016, India ranked low at 105th position globally on the Index, which measures countries' ability to nurture, develop and deploy human capital for economic development. Finland topped the list. India ranks much below China's 71st position while Bangladesh, Bhutan and Sri Lanka are also placed higher on the index. Giving India 105th rank out of the total 130 countries, WEF said the country has optimized just 57 per cent of its human capital endowment - placing it in the top of the bottom quartile of the index. Among BRICS countries, India is ranked lowest as against Russia's 28th, China's 71st, Brazil's 83rd and South Africa's 88th. It is interesting to note that India was ranked 100th last year out of total 124 countries.

The post argues that India needs an effective healthcare system, which addresses both acute and chronic health-care. Also, it must offer choice of care that is rational, accessible, and of good quality. For this, India needs to “adopt an integrated national health-care system built around a strong public-primary care system with a clearly articulated supportive role for the private and indigenous sectors”, as argued by the researchers in their paper published in The Lancet. [3]  In addition, India has to establish effective regulatory mechanisms to monitor the cost and quality of healthcare system.

Despite rapid economic growth over the past two decades, successive union governments have failed to invest generously in health. Most of the challenges facing India’s health system can be attributed to underinvestment and the inefficient use of resources, as argued by Dr. Prabhat Jha of the Centre for Global Health Research, University of Toronto. [4]  Further, the promise of universal health coverage will remain unfulfilled unless health is prioritised, as noted by Dr.  K. Srinath Reddy, President of the Public Health Foundation of India. [5]  In addition, an inadequate number of doctors and a poor network of public hospitals, coupled with bureaucratic bungling, means India often struggles to spend even its allocated budgets.

Asia's third-largest economy spends around 1 per cent of its gross domestic product (GDP) on public health, compared with 3 per cent in China and 8.3 per cent in the United States. (Indian states manage their health budgets separately.) As a result, the per capita spending rates are extremely low at US $ 109 (in Purchase Power Parity terms) as compared to the USA ($7,285) and Brazil ($837). The global figure is US$ 863 (WHO World Health Statistics 2010). As such, there is an urgent need to increase the budgetary allocation for health.

With government expenditure on health as a percentage of GDP stagnant or falling over the years and the rise of unregulated private healthcare sector based on the profit motive, the poor are left with fewer options than before to access health care services. Most healthcare expenses in India are paid out of pocket by patients and their families, rather than through insurance. This has led many households to incur Catastrophic Health Expenditure (CHE) which can be defined as health expenditure that threatens a household's capacity to maintain a basic standard of living. One study found that over 35 per cent of poor Indian households incur CHE and this reflects the detrimental state in which Indian healthcare system is at the moment. [6]  As per Dr. Reddy, Indian health system allows 63 million of its people to sink into poverty each year as a result of unaffordable health care costs. That could be reason, why Lancet's editor-in-chief Richard Horton has warned that India is on the “verge of a collapse under the weight of its own ill health”. 

The healthcare insurance is slowly picking up pace in India. But the pace of increase is very slow.  According to an Indian government study about 17 per cent of India's population had some form of health insurance in 2014.  Government or public healthcare is free for those below the poverty line in many States of India, but there is a question of quality. The NSSO survey (released in April 2016) found  that people rely more on private hospitals, with over 70 per cent spells of ailment (72% in rural areas and 79% in urban areas) being treated in the private sector. As such, government has to expand insurance coverage. Plans are currently being formulated for the development of a universal health care system in India, which would provide health coverage through “national health assurance”, as per the draft National Health Policy (NHP) 2015. Some community health insurance schemes targeting poor families in different states are showing encouraging trends. The governmental agencies need to expedite its role to play a more active role in facilitating and ensuring health insurance coverage for people, particularly the poor.

In addition, there is an urgent need to develop an effective healthcare delivery system, which addresses both communicable and non-communicable healthcare needs. For this, India needs to adopt an integrated national healthcare system built around a strong public primary care system with a clearly articulated supportive role for the private and indigenous sectors, as noted earlier. Now question arises how to achieve this?

A major barrier to service delivery is the severe shortage of qualified health care personnel. Although there are around 400 Indian medical colleges with an annual intake of 52,000 students, there are shortages of both generalist and specialist doctors, which are aggravated by urban concentration and emigration, noted by Dr. Reddy. Shortfalls of properly trained nurses and allied health professionals are even more acute.

Recently, GoI has taken steps to address the problem of shortage of medical professionals.  The Medical Council of India, responsible for medical education, is set to be replaced by a Medical Education Commission as per the Niti Aayog Panel (formerly Planning Commission). The panel has framed the detailed guidelines to ensure a wider talent pool to bridge shortages of skilled health workers and address a major hurdle in meeting growing quality healthcare needs.

How to provide health care services on ground? The draft National Health Policy 2015, which provides a broad roadmap for health system reforms, calls for strengthening primary care services to provide comprehensive care for several health conditions including non-communicable diseases.  Further, continuity of care would be ensured through linkages with secondary and tertiary care facilities. Both public and private sector providers would be engaged to deliver the service package, which would be paid for by the government-funded health insurance schemes, as noted by the draft NHP.  

No doubt, the draft NHP 2015 is an improvement over its predecessors of 1985 and 2002. However, it does not “provide a more concrete road map with doable timetables and practicable end-points”, as argued by the Forum for Medical Ethics Society. [7]  Looking to the ground realities, we suggest the following broad interventions to provide healthcare services (details will be worked out later).

Firstly, there is an urgent need to reevaluate the existing public primary healthcare system.  Presently there are about 23,100 Primary Health Centres (PHCs) in India.  They were established to provide preventive and promotive health care with special reference to maternal and child health as well as family planning services. However, they have gradually become clinical centres. There is an urgent need to concentrate on reproductive health (maternal and child health and family planning). 

Although there has been progress with child and maternal mortality, India has the highest number of child and new born as well as maternal deaths in the world. Two million children still die every year due to preventable causes. The World Bank estimates that the prevalence of underweight children in India is among the highest in the world with dire consequences for productivity and economic growth. [8]  Further, winner of the 2015 Nobel Prize in Economics Prof. Angus Deaton, who spent a considerable amount of time working on ‘stunting’ among Indian children, concluded that widespread growth faltering was a human development disaster  as height reflected early life nutrition which helps brains to grow. [9]  In addition issue of unwanted fertility is very serous one. India’s population has grown from 846 million in 1991 to 1210 million in 2011- that is by 364 million  in the twenty years,  and is still growing by around 17 to 18 million every year. Current population growth is mainly fuelled by unwanted fertility.   More than four in ten pregnancies are unintended/unplanned or simply unwanted by the women who experience them and half or more of these pregnancies result in births that spur continued population growth.   Today 26.5 million babies are born each year and out of this about 6 million births could be classified as unwanted or unplanned. [10]  The consequences of unintended pregnancy are serious, slowing down the process of socio-economic development as well as process of change, and is being reflected in widespread hunger, poor health, poverty, under educated labour force, unemployment,  regressing governance as well as increasing scarcity of basic resources like food, water and space despite concerted developmental efforts since 1991.

As such, existing Primary Health Centre should be the cornerstone of reproductive health services. Effective reproductive health practice requires skillfully combining a number of theoretical models and frameworks to support systems addressing the health needs of women, children, and families. Future improvements in RH should be built on this legacy but it will come only from a 'paradigm shift' in primary health practice, as noted by Dr. Starfield  in her recent paper entitled “ Politics, primary healthcare and health: was Virchow right?” . She writes  further,  “primary healthcare provides a considerable contribution in reducing the adverse impact of social inequalities in health”. [11]

Secondly, the general medical/clinical care will be provided in a given jurisdiction by the General practitioners (GPs) both in rural and urban areas.  In the medical profession, a general practitioner is a trained medical doctor who treats all common medical conditions both acute and chronic illnesses and refer patients to hospitals and other medical services for urgent and specialist treatment. They focus on the health of the whole person combining physical, psychological and social aspects of care. Also, GPs may be routinely involved in pre-hospital emergency care, community hospital care and performing low-complexity surgical procedures. The government may provide some basic facilities like space, essential equipments, etc.   to run the services. The contract is (re)negotiated every 5 years. The units will be fully computerized, that is, with computer-based patient records. GPs will be the corner stone of Indian healthcare system at the bottom in the proposed framework.

The secondary healthcare will be provided by a specialist or facility at the District/Tehsil level hospitals or Community Health Centers upon referral by a primary care physician including GP and that requires more specialized knowledge, skill, or equipment.

There has been mention of public-private partnerships for tertiary care in the NHP 2015, but this has yet to take concrete shape by imposing pubic duties on private professionals and hospitals. In our proposed model, most of the tertiary care will be taken care by the private sector, and referred cases will be paid by the public exchequer or through insurance. Recently, GOI has decided to invest to the tune of Rs 30,000 crore in 10 institutes of medical sciences (Like AIIMS). According to Ministry of Health and Family Planning setting up of these “institutes would address regional imbalances in availability of affordable and reliable tertiary health care services”. In addition, GoI would spend a very large amount as recurring expenses to run these institutes.  I think such amount could be spent as subsidy to help poor and middle class patients to avail tertiary care at the private hospitals

Lastly, the disease profile is changing rapidly in India. Modern science through improved sanitation, vaccination, and antibiotics, and medical attention has eliminated the threat of death from most infectious diseases. However, the World health organization has identified India as one of the nations that is going to have most of the lifestyle disorders in the near future. Nowadays, not only are lifestyle disorders becoming more common, but they are also affecting younger population. The population at risk shifts from 40+ to may be 30+ or even younger. Already considered the diabetes capital of the world, India now appears headed towards gaining another dubious distinction of becoming the lifestyle-related disease capital as well. A study conducted jointly by the All India Institute of Medical Sciences and Max Hospital shows the incidence of hypertension, obesity and heart disease is increasing at an alarming rate, especially in the young, urban population. As such, effective public health measures are urgently needed to promote physical activity.

In addition to sports, yoga needs to be promoted as a non-sectarian wellness initiative. On the occasion of the second International Yoga Day, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has done well to highlight the non-sectarian character of yoga. Emphasizing that yoga was not religious in nature; he asserted that the traditional practice was even meant for atheists. Moreover, he described yoga as an instrument that provided health assurance with zero spending. A mass movement that promotes yoga can be one way of following the dictum that prevention of ill health is better than cure.

The National Cadet Corps is the Indian Military cadet corps and it is open to school and college students on voluntary basis. Now few schools and colleges are continuing with this activity. The cadets have no liability for active military service once they complete their course but it helps in grooming the youth of the country into disciplined and healthy citizens. The Government of India must rethink about reintroducing it in all the   schools and colleges on the voluntary basis.

Many more such initiatives need to be facilitated. All these    can and should be used to tackle lifestyle diseases especially obesity and diabetes. This in turn can help the country save millions of rupees that are lost to early onset of illnesses among people. But such initiatives cannot become a mass movement if any of it is made mandatory and forcibly pushed down the throats of people, schools or colleges. The challenge of promoting physical activity is as much the responsibility of government, as of the people. And India must take it seriously. 

In conclusion, most Indians, who pride themselves on being part of the world’s fasted growing economy, “miss a heartbeat when they read about India’s grossly inadequate healthcare infrastructure”. [12]  Not enough hospital beds (less than nine for 10,000 patients). Not enough doctors (just seven per 10,000 patients). Not enough medicines. Not enough preventive healthcares.  Despite some impressive gains, India’s health continues to lag behind that of many of its Asian neighbors. Basic services like water, sanitation and sewage systems at best remained patchy barring some larger towns, and that may be the main cause of communicable diseases.

No doubt, Indians deserves better healthcare. For this, India needs to re-define its vision for healthcare. The above discussions provides broad picture to revamp the existing healthcare system to make it pro people especially pro poor.  However, this needs a bigger mindshare of the healthcare planners. The plan must also focus on fixing issues of providing clean safe water. In our zest to build toilets as part of Swacchh Bharat campaign it is essential not to forget that we also need a robust sewage system that works and is built to last. In addition, any plan to revamp the healthcare must rely on appropriate induction of technology. Today, digital technology, electronic health records, wearable sensors make it possible to remotely deliver healthcare and these must be part of the healthcare plan.

As per WHO report, India is fast turning as the world capital of lifestyle diseases, as noted earlier.  Just to give a number, there are some 70 million diabetics currently and another 70-80 million who will get it in the next 5 years in India and plenty will not get diagnosed. The abnormal thyroid prevalence in India is over 8 per cent. These are significant numbers that burden human productivity and have an impact on the national economy.

Prime Minister Modi is leading from the front. He is a leader with immense energy and commitments to the people. He must take concrete steps that “create an entitlement for all citizens to equitable, high quality services”. Otherwise it will defeat his development agenda.

In an interview to Times Now on June 27, 2016, PM Modi said: My development parameter is simple: how the poorest of the poor benefit from development. The poor is the central focus”.  In this agenda, we think, health and education are intrinsically important, as argued earlier. [13]  A society that does not provide quality universal healthcare and universal primary education is “morally repugnant in this day and age”.   




[1]. Refer at: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Brtish-medical-journal-Lancet-to-take-Modi-to-task-for-ignoring-health-sector/articleshow/49484703.cms. 

[2]. Refer at: http://www.fiercepharma.com/regulatory/indian-health-officials-slam-lancet-editor-s-comments.

[3]. Refer article:  Patel, et al. 2015. Assuring health coverage for all in India, The Lancet, vol. 386 (10011), p. 2422-2435.

[4]. Jha and Laxminarayan. 2009. Choosing Health: An entitlement for all Indians, Centre for Global Health Research, Toronto.

[5] . Reddy. 2015.  India's Aspirations for Universal Health Coverage, N Engl J Med (373), pp.1-5.

[6] Refer article: “Catastrophic Health Expenditure and Poor in India: Health Insurance is the Answer?”  by T V Sekher at: http://iussp.org/sites/default/files/event_call_for_papers/T.V%20Sekher-IUSSP%20pdf.pdf

[7]  Refer article: “National Health Policy 2015”, Economic & Political Weekly, Vol. 50, Issue No. 36, 05 Sept, 2015.

[8] Refer:  World Bank, India Malnutrition Report, 2009 at: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/SOUTHASIAEXT/Resources/223546-

[9] Angus Deaton. 1913. The Great Escape: Health, Wealth, and the Origin of Inequality, Princeton University Press

[10] Kothari, Devendra. 2014. “Managing Unwanted Fertility in India: Way Forward”, Institute of Economic Growth (ed.):   National Rural Health Mission: An Unfinished Agenda, New Delhi: Book Well, pp.25-36. 

[11] Starfield, Barbara. 2011. Politics, primary healthcare and health: was Virchow right? Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health; Vol. 65 (8), p 653-55. 

[12] Refer article:  Healthcare system in India at http://omanobserver.om/healthcare-system-in-india/ 

[13] Refer, author’s article: Two-Year in power, the Modi Government needs greater clarity of purpose, at http://kotharionindia.blogspot.in/2016/05/india-needs-to-be-as-wary-of-unlocking.html


Tuesday, 31 May 2016

Two-Year in power, the Modi Government needs greater clarity of purpose

Dr. Devendra Kothari
Population and Development Analyst
Forum for Population Action



India needs to be as wary of unlocking human potential as it is, rightly, of economic development


PM Narendra Modi assumed charge two years ago, on May 26, 2014. It is a good time to undertake an assessment of how Modi has fared so far; have the promises he made been realized or not?

 

No doubt, it is evident that much has changed. Policy paralysis and the pall of gloom that hung over the economy have lifted. PM Modi has been pushing the new policies with vigor and zeal. Inflation has been tamed and public finances have been strengthened. Consumer inflation which was 9.5 per cent   when Modi assumed office is now 5.4 per cent. The economy is expected to grow 7.6 per cent in 2015-16 as compared to 5.6 per cent three years ago. Yet, the proverbial green shoots have not yet broken into flowering buds. The jobs are flagging and ‘acche din’ still seem far away.

 

In coming year Modi’s job should not be confined to dealing with immediate challenges. It must be extended to bringing about an institutional transformation which will enhance India’s long-term economic prospects. It is because more than   10 million young people enter the workforce every year. But our policies have been unable to address the issue of adequate job creation. In fact, India has been witnessing jobless growth.[1] For reversing the trends, the Modi government has to “acquire greater clarity of purpose”, noted TOI Editorial.

 

Few can dispute the fact that the first decade of this millennium saw the fastest rate of growth ever for the Indian economy. Even fewer would question the fact that this was also the period that witnessed an abnormally low rate of growth in job creation. Take the two together and what we have: “jobless growth”, as noted by ILO based on the National Sample Survey Office data. The 66th round of NSSO data on employment in 2011 revealed that only 1 million jobs were added per year during 2004-10; in a period when the economy averaged a record 8.4 per cent growth annually. In this period, 55 million people joined the labour force. So, another way of looking at it is that a staggering 50 million failed to find employment—a vexing political/social/human challenge indeed. It appears that the high economic growth is not backed by high job creation.


Now question arises why jobless growth?  One of the most important reasons behind this piquant economic reality is low level of human productivity. Productivity, a measure of the efficiency of the human capital, can be measured by per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP). [2]  In their book - Beyond 2020: A Vision for Tomorrow's India, A.P.J Abdul Kalam and Y.S.Rajan analyzed this fact. [3]  They write: “The GDP per capita standings are the true indicators of how much India has been able to empower its citizens” (p 244). Table 2 makes it crystal clear how much progress India needs to make to even be par with Brazil, China and Indonesia. India has become the tenth largest economy in the world in terms of GDP but still has a very-very low per capita GDP. The country placed at the 148th position among the 189 countries, as per the World Bank. This is perhaps the most visible challenge. GDP per capita in India averaged 462 US$ from 1960 until 2012, reaching an all time high of 1499 US$ in 2013 and a record low of 228 US$ in 1960. The table shows that China’s GDP per capita value in 2013 was more than four and half times that of India. As such, how India could become world’s manufacturing hub through its “Make in India” initiative?

  Table 1: Per capita GDP, selected Countries, 2013
Country
World Rank
GDP per capita (In US$)
1
2
3
Monaco
1
163,036
Norway
4
100,819
USA
13
53,143
Germany
22
45,085
Japan
28
38,492
South Korea
33
25,977
Russia
51
14,612
Brazil
65
11,208
China
84
6,807
S. Africa
89
6,618
Indonesia
119
3,475
Sri Lanka
124
3,280
Vietnam
137
1,911
India
148
1,499
Pakistan
152
1,299
Nepal
170
694
Somalia
189
150
World

10,472
Source:  World Bank National Account Data, 2013.

The current pool of India’s labour force has very low employability mainly due to low productivity. If the labour productivity is low, then employers do not hire workers. And that is happening in India. India graduates more than five million graduates every year. Engineers comprise a small (but significant) part of it at around six hundred thousand, whereas the rest take up a variety of three or four year bachelor degree programs. The National Employability Report 2013   reveals that a significant proportion of graduates, nearly 47 per cent were found not employable in any sector, given their poor English language and cognitive/analytical skills. The report also indicates that only 17.4 per cent of technical graduates (engineers) in the country are ready to be employed. What this also means is that the rest, that is, 82.6 per cent, engineering graduates are unemployable. Again, their lack of English language knowledge and cognitive skills were identified as the major obstacles to their suitability in the job market. [4]

This shows that economic growth, even when it takes place, does not create as many jobs as it is skewed towards capital - or skills-intensive sectors rather than labour intensive manufacturing. The state of Gujarat itself confirms the picture – it is a manufacturing powerhouse that specializes in capital intensive products such as petrochemicals, drugs and plastics. As a result, jobs are not available. For example, when the Government of Uttar Pradesh advertised for the post of 368 peons on August 11, 2015, it could not have guessed the response would be so overwhelming.  Over 2.3 million candidates applied for these posts (over 6,250 per post). The minimum qualification for the post was Class V pass but only 53, 000 of the  candidates who had applied has not studies  beyond Class V. Rest of applicants include those with degrees like BTech, MSc and MCom, besides 255 youths with PhDs.

It appears that problem of unemployment/underemployment has taken a serious turn and there is apprehension of its becoming still grim in the future. There is an urgent need to build skills with an industry/market focus to avert demographic dividend from turning into demographic bomb. The Patel/Jat unrest whose intensity took the country by surprise could already be one manifestation of this. Clearly, India is frittering away the opportunity of capitalizing on the 'demographic dividend'.

During the last two year, the Modi Government has embarked on ambitious structural reforms to revive growth, including significant efforts in the agricultural sector to boost productivity through irrigation, insurance, and access to markets, a strong push to deregulate business, especially for startups, and important efforts to improve the governance of public sector banks, as noted by the RBI Governor Raguram Rajan.   In addition, PM  Modi has taken several significant decisions, resulting in initiatives such as Make in India, Swachh Bharat (Clean India), Skill India, Jan Dhan Yojana (People’s Bank Plan), Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao (to addresses the issues of women empowerment), Ujjwala Yojana  (make availability of cooking gas to very poor   households),  and several more.

Are these initiatives aimed to enhance human development geared enough to meet the problem of low productivity?  One cannot be too optimistic about considering the Modi Government’s piecemeal approach. In other words: Is the piecemeal path down which our country is currently headed to handle core issues of  sustainable   development  a dead end, or can it lead to lasting and rational reform? No doubt, India needs comprehensive policy package in place of incremental piecemeal approaches to unlock human potential?

India’s vast young population (currently, around 900 million people are under 35 years of age) is its strengths and therefore one has to mobilize them to go forward fast. So what need to be done to unlock India’s potential? In other words, what should be agenda for enhancing human capital?  No doubt, putting the economy back on track should be the government’s first priority. It is because India’s demography is such that we have to create a million additional jobs every month. This can only be done by making it easy for job-creating businesses to run, facilitating not just big companies but more importantly small scale industries which create the most jobs. However, for sustainable development it is equally important to focus on human capital. Central to the human development approach is the concept of capabilities. For this, it is must to build skills with an industry focus to avert the demographic dividend from turning into a demographic disaster.

India needs comprehensive human development policies which include ensuring quality education especially school education, enhancing primary and reproductive health, strengthening decision making power of women or  empowering women, improving living conditions  better including sanitation and water supply, and shifting access labour force from agriculture  to non-agriculture sectors.  Among these first two need urgent but special attention.

India does well to keep ninety six per cent of children between 6 and 14 years of age enrolled in schools but the problem is now of quality, not quantity. More than half our students are being classified as functionally uneducated and unskilled or simply half educated.  Unless education is rescued from the quagmire of mediocrity, all talk about realizing India’s demographic dividend will be without substance. If India is to meet the more ambitious development goals in a more challenging external environment, the post-2015 agenda needs to focus on ensuring a structural transformation of education system. That will enable labour to shift towards higher value-added sectors and more knowledge-intensive activities, thereby improving labour productivity relative to other developing countries. It is argued that the enjoyment of the right to education could be enhanced if there is an acknowledgement of the problems that beset our educational system and if there is a willingness to solve such problems[5]  In other words, the government must focus on quality education, infrastructure rather than attempting to introduce controversial issues in the education system.

India’s demographic bulge needs not only a sustained does of quality education from top to bottom and practical skills for employability and productivity but also sincere efforts to minimize the incidence of unwanted fertility through proper health policies  to harness the demographic dividend. The World Bank estimates that the prevalence of underweight children in India is among the highest in the world with dire consequences for mobility, mortality, productivity and economic growth.[6]   

India’s population has grown from 846 million in 1991 to 1210 million in 2011- that is by 364 million  in the last  twenty years,  and is still growing by around 17 to 18 million every year. Current population growth is mainly fuelled by unwanted fertility.   More than four in ten pregnancies are unintended/unplanned or simply unwanted by the women who experience them and half or more of these pregnancies result in births that spur continued population growth.   Today 26.5 million babies are born each year and out of this about 6 million births could be classified as unwanted or unplanned. It is estimated that around 450 million people out of 1200 million in 2011 in India who were result of unwanted pregnancies and most of them are from the lower economic strata.[7]  The consequences of unintended pregnancy are serious, slowing down the process of socio-economic development as well as process of change, and is being reflected in widespread hunger, poor health, poverty, under educated labour force, unemployment,  regressing governance as well as increasing scarcity of basic resources like food, water and space despite concerted developmental efforts since 1991.

In addition, government policies have to be redrafted or reviewed to empower women, improving living condition including sanitation and water supply and shifting access labour force from the agriculture to otter sectors.[8]

In short, India’s aspirational youth are an amorphous mass; however, they are desperate to see the Modi Government succeed, if only because it is India’s last chance at getting on the high growth track which can help   to achieve an overall development. The main concern today is the impairment of human potential, which is not allowing India to reap its rich demographic dividend. It is high time that Modi Government and political parties focused on improving people’s ability to earn more rather than dolling out subsidies that make people dependent on the political class and system.  For this, Indian policy makers need a sense of self confidence and clarity over the direction where we want to reach. As of now we have a slogan: ‘Make in India’. It must be supplemented by another slogan: ‘Enhance Human Capital’. For this we need an agenda, as noted in my earlier post entitled:  “Growth with structural transformation: A development agenda for India”.

I will like to conclude in the words of N.R. Narayana Murthy,  author of highly acclaimed book: A Better India: A Better World,  “Economic growth and prosperity require not just growing population, but also what economists call ‘good human capital’ – a population equipped with the skills and resources to participate in the economic. With limited progress in human development, India’s large population can become a liability rather than an advantage. In other words, the demographic predictions are loud and clear: that the promise of demographic dividend will not last long, in any case beyond 2030. Can India take advantage of this demographic window in the next couple of years and garner its benefits by adopting right type of human development policies?

Hope policy makers/experts are listening!




[1] Jobless growth” means a situation where the flow of output increases without a proportionate increase in employment opportunities.

[2] The measure is especially useful when comparing one country to another because it shows the relative performance of the countries. A rise in per capita GDP signals growth in the economy and tends to translate as an increase in productivity.

[3] A.P.J Abdul Kalam and Y.S.Rajan. 2014.  Beyond 2020: A Vision for Tomorrow's India, Viking, New Delhi.


[4] For details, see: The National Employability Report Graduates 2013 at: http://www.aspiringminds.in/docs/national_employability_study_IT_aspiringminds.pdf. Also see: The National Employability Report (NER) for Engineers by Aspiring Minds at: http://www.aspiringminds.com/research-articles/exploring-national-employability-report-engineers-2014-part-i .

[5] Kothari, Devendra. 2016. Education in India needs intensive care, not a quick fix, RAEA Policy Paper No. 6. Rajasthan Adult Education Association, Jaipur. 

[6] Refer:  World Bank, India Malnutrition Report, 2009 at: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/SOUTHASIAEXT/Resources/223546-

[7] Kothari, Devendra. 2014. “Managing Unwanted Fertility in India: Way Forward”, Institute of Economic Growth (ed.):   National Rural Health Mission: An Unfinished Agenda, New Delhi: Book Well, pp.25-36.  

[8] For remaining components of human development agenda o, read my article entitled:  “Growth with structural transformation: A development agenda for India” at: http://kotharionindia.blogspot.in/2015/01/growth-with-structural-transformation.html. Also refer, Kothari, Devendra. 2014. “Empowering women in India: Need for a Feminist Agenda”, Journal of Health Management, 16 (2), pp 233-43.