Imran’s 'Naya Pakistan’ needs ‘Nayi Soch'

Dr. Devendra Kothari

Population and Development Analyst

Forum for Population Action

To those who say that peace is never possible between India and Pakistan, remember that no one could predict the collapse of the Berlin Wall.

 

In his maiden speech after taking over the reign of Pakistan on August 18, 2018, Prime Minister Imran Khan made a tall promise to build ‘Naya (new) Pakistan’. Khan’s vision statement is reflective of his close observation, intimate experience and interaction with ordinary people.  Also, it encompasses a variety of local perspectives; and it is easy to communicate and short enough to fit even on a T-shirt. However, he did not specify mission statement which is the next step in the action planning process. This post (#102) argues that ‘naya’ Pak needs nayi soch (new thinking) for a better Pakistan, aka #NayaPakistan.

It is a test and challenge of a leadership how it sets the priorities right and how it effectively utilizes the principles and policies that would help in translating a vision into reality. To achieve the vision of ‘Naya Pakistan’, Prime Minister Imran Khan has to focus on three critical issues with ‘nayi soch’ (new thinking), as discussed below:

First, Strike on Terrorism: Experts, while speaking at the launch of the third revised edition of ‘Pakistan’s Economic Journey: Need for a New Paradigm’ (2019) authored by former chief economist of Pakistan Fasih Uddin, pinpointed that governance failure (read controlling terrorism)  as the root cause of all of  problems of Pakistan.[1]  Thus, dismantling terror infrastructure is a foremost vital step towards ‘Naya Pakistan’, since it takes away a lot of money which could otherwise be used for development activities.  Currently, Pakistan is an epicenter of terrorism.  Terrorism is a calculated use of violence (or the threat of violence) against civilians in order to attain goals that are political or religious or ideological in nature; this is done through intimidation or coercion or instilling fear.

According to Daniel Byman, a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, "Pakistan is probably today's most active sponsor of terrorism."[2]  Further, “Pakistan is not doing enough to curb terrorism financing and money laundering”, a global financial watchdog, Financial Action Task Force (FATF), said recently in a stern warning that reflects renewed scrutiny of the country’s links to militant groups.

The warning came a week after India threatened to retaliate against Pakistan for a bombing that killed at least 40 Indian soldiers in Pulwama (Kashmir) on February 14, 2019. The terrorist group that claimed responsibility, Jaish-e-Muhammad, or Army of Muhammad, operates in Pakistan, where it raises money under aliases, as per FATF and experts. Pakistan was put on the FATF grey list in June of 2018 and was put on notice to be blacklisted by October 2019 if it didn't curb money laundering and terror financing.  There are many terrorist groups like Al Qaeda, the Taliban and Lashkar-e-Taiba, operating under the patronage of Government of Pakistan and its army.  In a swift and precise air strike following the Pulwama bombing, India bombed and destroyed Jaish-e-Mohammed's biggest training camp at Balakot in Pakistan on February 26, killing a "very large number of terrorists, trainers and senior commanders.”  The airstrike was the first time since the war of 1971 that Indian Air Force aircraft crossed the Line of Control and the first time since both states have become nuclear power.

After the air strike, Pakistan did not receive support even from its ‘friends’ including all weather friend, China. France asked Pakistan to exercise restraint, saying that it supported Indian actions against terrorism and asked Pakistan to stop allowing its territory to be used by terrorists.  Further, the US, its former closest ally, noted its condemnation of the Pulwama attack and asked Pakistan to crack down on terrorists operating from its soil.  Even the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) has sent a signal of sorts to Pakistan by inviting Indian participation at the foreign minister-level meeting in Abu Dhabi. 

Will Islamabad take action against terror groups? For ‘Naya Pakistan’, it is must. It has been estimated that normalizing its relationship with its neighbours – all of whom, not just India, are plagued by Pakistan-based terror – would bump up its annual GDP growth by 1.5 per cent. Moreover the international environment Pakistan operates in today is very different from what it was a quarter century ago, when it could use its strategic cover as an American partner to secretly breed anti-India terrorists. But 9/11 and Osama bin Laden taking shelter in Pakistan changed the US-Pakistan equation. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s Middle East allies too have become wary of its policy of using terrorism as an instrument of state policy. They see India as a more attractive investment destination with growing energy demands that their oil industries can fulfill, as observed by the TOI Editorial.  In short, taken together, there is growing international consensus that Pakistan must act on terror. And, it will work, but we have to give some time to Pakistan. In other words, India must get Pakistan to keep it under GSP and simultaneously Pakistan must drop ambiguity and undertake credible action against terror groups. 

Second, Reconcile with India: Seventy two years on, India-Pakistan relations continue to be on a roller-coaster ride.  Relations between two countries have been complex and largely hostile due to a number of historical and political events. The region of Kashmir has been at the centre of tensions between two countries since both states came into being in 1947. Both claim it in full, and each controls a section of the territory. These sections are separated by one of the most heavily militarized borders in the world, known as the line of control, where there are frequent exchanges of artillery and small arms fire. The two South Asian rivals have fought three wars and one quasi-war over the last seven decades, besides engaging in periodic shorter clashes over their disputed border and sparring in international diplomatic arenas.  Now both are nuclear power.

Given this backdrop, India and Pakistan must surely now realise that resolving Kashmir is an infinitely better course of action than war. For Kashmir, there is only one strategy left to try: peace through dialogue. PM Imran Khan offered to talk on this issue. “This problem of Kashmir is only going to be solved by direct dialogue between the two sides.”   His statement also made it clear that he wanted to link the release Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman to the reopening of negotiations with India in order to find a way out of the current crisis including terrorism.

How should India respond? India, for its part, should not be rigid, and should not totally close its doors to engagement with Pakistan. I think India should welcome this move. While keeping all options open, it is important for the government of India to make a definitive assessment regarding Pakistan’s intentions before taking the next step in both the military and diplomatic spheres.  This is a difficult job, among other things because the real decision-makers in Pakistan are not the Prime Minister and his cabinet but the top generals ensconced in General Headquarters in Rawalpindi. It is not just the Pakistan army, but also the political class, which needs to be bold and stop being in denial.

Is there hope for India and Pakistan's difficult relationship? India and Pakistan can either make peace or continue in an endless cycle of violence. For the moment, both countries have agreed on not escalating matters further. What can we now look forward to?

Will an action like the air surgical strike deep inside of Pakistan in Balakot in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa end cross-border terrorism or solve the Kashmir issue? Will this approach help us?  I don’t think so. Surgical strikes after Uri didn't prevent Pulwama. Another may be heady but won't deter Pakistan. It will make her more revengeful.   For example, India under the leadership of Indira Gandhi defeated Pakistan in war in 1971. A real war involving tanks, battleships, infantry divisions, submarines, warplanes and the lot, killing thousands, forcing their surrender, breaking up their country, capturing over 90,000 Pakistani soldiers, including their general, and jailing them in India. She ordered Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, then the President of Pakistan, to come to Simla and sign a settlement on our terms. She thought all this decisive military action and strong leadership had permanently solved the problem of Kashmir and cross-border terrorism. But it didn’t.  It made Pakistan more powerful. [3]

For Pakistan, the 1971 war was a complete and humiliating defeat, a psychological setback that came from a defeat at the hands of India.  Steve Coll, in his book Ghost Wars, argues that the Pakistan military's experience in 1971 with India influenced the Pakistani government (and Army)  to support jihadist (a Muslim who believes in using violence to achieve religious and political aims), because the jihadists were thought as  a tool to use against India, including bogging down the Indian Army in Kashmir.[4]  Also,   after the war, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, President (1971-73) and Prime Minister (1973-77) of Pakistan authorized the highly secretive and clandestine atomic bomb programme, as part of its new deterrence policy, to defend itself and never to allow another armed invasion from India. Bhutto famously declared: “If India builds the bomb, we will eat grass or leaves, even go hungry, but we will get one of our own.” This crash program reached parity in 1996 when the first nuclear weapon was successfully tested.

As hard as it would be, but this is an opportune time for both sides to rise above the mindset of right and wrong, judgment and blame, and instead come together and work to build peace.  India and Pakistan have paid a huge price for the unending conflict. PM Khan acknowledged in his speech that it has cost Pakistan tens of thousands of lives and billions of dollars. He also said it is in his country’s interest to address the conflict. India is in the same situation and has lost countless lives too. So, it is also in India’s interest to move toward a peaceful solution.

The solution of the Kashmir problem is as simple as we want it to be or as complex as we want it to be. It can take seven months to agree or 70 years. But certainly without recognizing the existence of multiple stakeholders and having a time-bound negotiation, we can never expect to see peace in Kashmir or in the South Asia as a whole. India’s approach of closing its porous border and treating Kashmir as a security problem is a short-term stop-gap solution that does not recognize the humanitarian cost, nor does it treat Kashmir as the unfinished business of Partition. On the other hand, Pakistan’s approach of funding cross-border terrorists or so-called fighters  is ultimately a piecemeal and failing strategy that achieves nothing long-term other than trouble for the local Kashmiri population and its own development aspirations including building ‘Naya Pakistan’. “It remains to be seen whether both countries have the political will, wisdom and compassion needed for an actual solution. Thoughts, words and deeds have to come together for this. We cannot say one thing and do something else. [5]

Only a truly grassroots initiative can help disentangle the historical and ideological baggage and de-link Kashmir from carrying the burden of India and Pakistan’s national identities. It will also create new social and political spaces for creative ideas exploring, for example, the meaning, form, content, and viability of a ‘soft border’ across the dividing Line of Control in Kashmir. The key lies in shifting the focus from India and Pakistan to Kashmir, and from territorial disputes to addressing the political needs of the people.[6]

To those who say that peace is never possible between these two countries, please remember that no one could predict the collapse of the Berlin Wall. Also take example of the highest level talk between North Korea and USA to find a solution. Kim Jong Un’s nuclear and missile programs represent one of the most dangerous challenges since the end of the Cold War. But there are opportunities to stop them through dialogue. When Kim and Trump can talk to resolve the problem, why not India and Pakistan? You can draw a line but you can’t erase the history of more than 3000 years in just 70 years. We are the same people living under different governments.

Lastly, Focus on Human Development: Pakistanis is the poorest country in South Asia, as per the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), developed by the Oxford Poverty & Human Development Initiative (OPHI) and UNDP. MPI   identifies how people are being left behind across three key dimensions: health, education and living standards, and 10 indicators – nutrition, child mortality, years of schooling, school attendance, sanitation, cooking fuel, drinking water, electricity, housing and assets. All these are the basic ingredients to eradicate poverty by unlocking human potential.

According to the 2018 report, about 43.9 per cent of Pakistan’s population was living under multi-dimensional poverty, compared to 27.5 per cent in India.  It means around 90 million (9 crore) out of the total population of 200.8 million in 2018 can be classified as deprived, mahroom or vanchit Pakistanis. And, without empowering this population of 18 million families, Pakistan cannot think of becoming an inclusive and developed economy. And for this, a concerted strategy is needed.

My policy monograph - Nurturing Human Development: A Strategy for New India [7] - proposes a strategy and it is christened as “HDPlus” (Human Development Plus). And it can be used by Pakistan to empower its population.  The HDPlus strategy is a dynamic agenda based on a ‘whole child’ concept that is school-going child and his/her family (that is HDPlus family) should be the fulcrum of human development efforts. The concept is being described by policies, practices, and relationships which ensure that each child is healthy, educated, engaged, supported and encouraged. It is aimed in laying foundation for the human competency that is quality of being adequately or well qualified physically and intellectually.

If Pakistan wants a bright future for its people then it needs to act now. Time is the essence here. So stop wasting time. Make it happen today! It is, therefore, time to shift gears, up the momentum, and be more incisive in securing the interest of the disadvantaged people. For ‘Naya’ Pakisthan’, the immediate development slogan must be:  “Nau Crore Mahroom Pakistanis ki Taraqqi” (Development of 90 million deprived Pakistanis).

What Pakistan can learn from its ‘twin’? Socio-economic development indicators, as presented in Table 1, show how the trajectories of Pakistan and Bangladesh (earlier East Pakistan), demographic twins, grow apart. When Bangladesh was carved out of Pakistan in 1971, it was no match to its erstwhile western part (earlier West Pakistan) on most socio-economic parameters. Today, Bangladesh is already a solid member of the World Bank’s lower middle-income class. According to a set of statistical models that the Bank have developed, by 2030 Bangladesh appears to have an even chance of reaching the Bank’s upper middle-income class (roughly US$4,000 to $12,000 per capita annually). For a country that Henry Kissinger dubbed it ‘a basket case” at independence in 1971, that prospect is impressive. [8]

It is because Bangladesh didn’t squander its time and resources in breeding terror, focusing nuclear weapons technology as well promoting religious hatred. Pakistan lost the plot to terror after the 1971 war while Bangladesh got its script right.  From very beginning, it focused on human development to incase its demographic dividend. (When it comes to HD, even India should learn from Bangladesh.) 

The state-sponsored terrorism and the nuclear programme have taken heavy tolls of Pakistan. On the other hand, realizing the gravity of the threat of rapid population growth, the government of Bangladesh has accorded the highest priority to population control in its human development strategy from very beginning.   This helped trigger demand for modern contraception and formalize Bangladesh’s public health supply chain. As the rate of contraceptive use grew through the 1980s and 1990s, the country’s total fertility rate (TFR), an estimate of the average lifetime number of children that women will bear, declined steeply from around 7 in  1971 to 2.2 in 2017 (Bangladesh currently has the lowest TFR in South Asia), advancing the median age of  population and promoting related progress in education, child health, nutrition, gender equity, sanitation and hygiene,  population stabilization among others, as shown in Table 1. And these basic ingredients were crucial in unlocking human potential or pushing human development in Bangladesh. The Bangladesh labour force survey reveals that women’s participation in the paid labour force increased from 16 per cent in 1996 to 35 per cent in 2017.

  

   Table 1 Trajectories of three countries— Bangladesh, India and Pakistan

Variable	Bangladesh		India		Pakistan
	1971	2018	1971	2018	1971	2018
Total population  (in million)	66	166	566	1358	60	201
Annual population growth (%)	2.2	1.0	2.2	1.1	2.7	2.0
Total fertility (births/woman)	6.9	2.1	5.5	2.3	6.6	3.5
Life expectancy at birth (years)	47.1	72.5	48.4	68.6	53.4	66.4
IMR (infant deaths/1,000 live births)	140	28.3 (2016)	148	34 (2016)	141	53.9 (2016)
Adult literacy  (% aged 15+)	29.2 (1981)	72.9 (2016)	40.8 (1981)	63.3 (2011)	25.7 (1981)	57.0 (2014)
Primary school enrollment ratio (%)	70.5 (1980)	120.4 (2015)	83.0 (1980)	108.6 (2015)	78.0 (1980)	97.7 (2015)
Source: World Bank Open Data at: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.

As a result, Bangladesh’s population is rising at half the rate of Pakistan (Pakistan has crossed Bangladesh in terms of population as compared to 1971). Bangladesh does far better than India, let alone Pakistan, on infant and maternal mortality rates. This means, to put it in plain terms that a child born in Bangladesh today has much better chance of survival than a child born in Pakistan. Further, Bangladeshis live six years longer than Pakistanis on average. (Life expectancy of Bangladesh is even more than India.) It shows how healthy Bangladeshis are which enhances the efficiency of human resource in terms of productivity.  What’s significant is that Bangladesh now exports more ready-made garments than India and Pakistan combined. So, what Pakistan, therefore, can learn from its ‘twin’?

·  Bangladesh doesn't put religion on everything like Pakistan which led to increase in Islamic extremists/terrorists in the country.

·   Bangladesh has shown how a nation can power its progress by investing in people. It didn’t squander its time and resources in breeding terror and promoting nuclear weapons technology.

· Relations between India and Bangladesh have been friendly, although sometimes there are border disputes. The historic land boundary agreement was signed with India on 6 June 2015 which opened a new era in the relations and further stopped all irritants in ties. Further, India and Bangladesh are close strategic partners in counter-terrorism.  On the other hand, Relations between India and Pakistan have been complex and largely hostile due to a number of historical and political events. Consequently, their relationship has been plagued by hostility and suspicion, though a large part of north India and Pakistan somewhat overlap in areas of shared lingua franca   and cuisines.

In sum, let us hope in the coming days the hatred between India and Pakistan will vanish and both will work together for mutual benefits..!! And, that will ensure not only PM Imran’s ‘Naya Pakistan’ but also PM Modi’s ‘New India’.  It will change the life of at least 1/5th of humanity for better by freeing billions of dollars of defense budget for development.

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[1] Uddin, Fasih. 2019. Pakistan’s Economic Journey – Need for A New Paradigm (third edition), IPS Press, Islamabad, Pakistan.

[2] Daniel L. Byman. "The Changing Nature of State Sponsorship of Terrorism" (PDF). Brookings.edu. Retrieved 5 October 2018. 

[3] Refer, article: Status quo resorted…by Aakar Patel at: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/aakarvani/status-quo-restored-can-we-now-play-pakistan-in-the-world-cup-please/

[4] Coll, Steve (2005). Ghost Wars, The Penguin Press. 

[5] For details, refer article:  The Solution to the Kashmir Conflict by Rohan Bedi, Fair Observer, August 2, 2018 at:https://www.fairobserver.com/region/central_south_asia/kashmir-war-conflict-india-pakistan-peace-south-asia-politics-news-this-week-71417/

[6] Refer  article: Kashmir's Problems Need a Political Solution By K.S. Venkatachalam, The Diplomat, Sept. 05, 2016 at: https://thediplomat.com/2016/09/kashmirs-problems-need-a-political-solution/ 

[7]For details, see:  Kothari, Devendra. 2019. Nurturing Human Development: A Strategy for New India, New Delhi: Paragoan International Publishers. A copy of the publication could be obtained by contacting author.  Though this framework is based on Indian experiences, but it can be applied in Pakistan with some modifications.

[8] For details, see article: Bangladesh and Pakistan: Demographic Twins Grow Apart by Cincotta and Madsen (2018) at: https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2018/10/bangladesh-pakistan-demographic-twins-grow/

Future of India is Now

Dr. Devendra Kothari

Population and Development Analyst

Forum for Population Action

India’s under-35s are a generation that holds India’s future.

The future is uncertain; however, it can be created by what we do today, not tomorrow. Mahatma Gandhi once said: “The future depends on what you do in the present (now)”; and that’s the message that our policy makers must adored.

We are weeks away from notification of India’s general elections 2019. Unofficial campaigning is well under way. Listening to the lead campaigners, it is clear that none of them is dealing with the real challenges facing the country. There is no secret that India's growth is much skewed and its benefits go disproportionately to few people as gets manifested by Oxfam’s Wealth Report (2018) which points out that the nine richest Indians own as much wealth as the bottom 50 per cent of the population. Commenting on this, the Oxfam International Executive Director Winnie Byanyima said: "If this obscene inequality between the top 1 percent and the rest of India continues then it will lead to a complete collapse of the social and democratic structure of this country."  As such, healing wounds and focussing attention on what free India’s politicians should really be aiming: how to secure India’s place in the world as well as freedom from want for every citizen especially those who are at the bottom of pyramid.  India’s tryst with destiny still beckons. It doesn’t have to remain just a great speech. But a big question: How to forge ahead? This post aims in this direction.

Two issues need urgent attention: agrarian unrest and job crisis. Any durable solution to agrarian crises requires non-farm jobs. When a sector with less than 15 per cent of GDP supports a population three times its size, we have a convergence of rural and urban hopes: jobs. One cannot lift rural incomes without absorbing at least two-thirds of those dependent on the farm in non-farm jobs. So, generating jobs is the biggest issue.  Employment generation, however, has remained weak. “India has struggled to convert high rates of economic growth into jobs”, as per the State of Working India report (2018).[1] In addition to weak employment generation, low wages are another big issue.   “On average, 82% of male and 92% of female workers currently earn less than Rs. 10,000 ($137) a month”, the report revealed. This suggests that a large majority of Indians are not being paid what may be termed a ‘living wage’, and that explains the intense hunger for government jobs including reservations.

India has to recognize that the export-oriented, low-skill, large-scale manufacturing jobs that developing economies have relied upon (and that was the key to much of China’s success) are on the wane around the world. Automation is reducing the amount of low-skill work that the manufacturing sector requires and is adversely affecting the job market.  Thus, there are many reforms that India is required to carry out to attain competitive strength in manufacturing and reducing the level of unemployment and underemployment. At the same time, we have to create enough jobs to accommodate 12 million youths joining the workforce every year. These would require changes in labour and land laws, cutting corporate and general taxes to the level of East Asian countries, and improving basic infrastructure including uninterrupted cheap power supply. But most importantly, unlocking the human potential is a must and it should be the India’s priority, since India’s USP is its people.  

With the World Bank ranking India at 115th out of 157 countries on the Human Capital Index in 2018, India cannot avoid the issue of empowering people.  HCI seeks to measure the amount of human capital that a child born today can expect to attain by the age of 18. According to its parameters a child born in India today will only be 44 per cent as productive as she could have been if she had enjoyed quality education and full health as well as quality of living environment including water and sanitation.  In other words, there are grave deficiencies in India’s human development inputs that are preventing children from reaching their full potential. As a result, the productivity, measured as per capita GDP,   is very low. India became the sixth largest economy in the world in terms of GDP in 2017 but still it has a very-very low per capita GDP, as per IMF. It is placed at 122nd position among 187 countries.

The current pool of India’s manpower has very low employability mainly due to poor quality of human capital, i.e. abilities and skills of human resources.  The country produces more than five million graduates every year. The National Employability Report    reveals that a significant proportion of these graduates, nearly 47 percent, are unemployable, given their poor linguistic and cognitive/analytical skills. 

The Annual Status of Education Report 2017 reveals that nearly one-fourth of India’s government-school-going youngsters aged 14-18 cannot read their own language fluently. The report also reveals that 57 per cent of the children assessed struggled to solve a simple sum of division - exposing chinks in the quality of education imparted in the country. Further, 47 per cent of all 14 year-olds in the sample could not read English sentences. Also, the report revealed that only 28 per cent had used the internet—26 per cent had used computers in last one week. Further, 64 per cent had never used the internet. In other words, India’s schools have become ‘factories’ producing unskilled labour force, thus promoting deprivation at a large scale.

Further, the galloping population growth and poor hygiene and sanitation have worsened an already bad situation. One has to recognize that population is an important factor in sustainable development, especially when it is growing out of control. It leads to a significant diversion of state investable resources to consumption which could otherwise be used for increasing investment and productivity and for improving the quality of public services such as education, health, sanitation, drinking water and for managing the environmental degradation. India’s population has grown from 1210.6 million in 2011 to 1,342.5 million in 2018, thus growing by around 18-19 million every year. The current population growth in the country, however, is mainly caused by unwanted fertility.  Around five in ten live births are unintended/unplanned or simply unwanted by the women who experience them and these births    trigger continued high population growth. Around 26 million children were born in India in 2018, and out of this about 13 million births could be classified as unwanted.  The consequences of unintended pregnancy are serious, slowing down the process of socio-economic development as well as process of change. As such, a ‘big push’ is needed to revamp reproductive health services in unlocking the   human potential.

Due to all these factors, India accounts a large number of deprived people. The Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), developed by the Oxford Poverty & Human Development Initiative (OPHI) and UNDP, identifies how people are being left behind across three key dimensions: health, education and living standards, and 10 indicators – nutrition, child mortality, years of schooling, school attendance, sanitation, cooking fuel, drinking water, electricity, housing and assets. Basic philosophy and significance of MIP is that it is based on the idea that poverty is not one-dimensional, rather it is multidimensional. According to the 2016 report, India has very high multidimensional poverty. More than half of India’s population (55.3%) is living under multi-dimensional poverty, compared to 5.2 per cent in China, 40.7 per cent in Bangladesh and 45.6 per cent in Pakistan.  In India, there are very wide regional variations. There are more ‘multidimensional’ deprived people in the eight states of India (Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal) than in the rest of country.[2] 

It means around 700 million (70 crore) out of the total population of 1350 in 2018 can be classified as deprived or vanchit Indians. And, without investing in this population of 140 million families, mainly comprising Dalits, tribals, OBCs and Muslims among others, India cannot think of becoming an inclusive and developed economy.

How to forge ahead?

India’s under-35s are a generation that holds India’s future. In this context, a concerted strategy is needed. Our policy monograph - Nurturing Human Development: A Strategy for New India [3] - proposes a strategy and it is christened as “HDPlus” (Human Development Plus).  It is a dynamic agenda based on a ‘whole child’ concept, that is school-going child and his/her family (that is HDPlus family) should be the fulcrum of human development efforts. The concept is being described by policies, practices, and relationships which ensure that each child is healthy, educated, engaged, supported and encouraged. For this, integrating the child and his or her family more deeply into the day-to-day life of school and home activities represents an untapped instrument for raising the overall achievements including learning skills and health parameters, and hence improving overall productivity. In other words, creating an enabling environment at family and school levels is a way to empower people.  To start with, the proposed HDPlus strategy focuses on five interventions in a more closely integrated form. They are: 

·         Improving the quality of elementary education,

·         Facilitating  WASH factors (Water, Sanitation and Hygiene),

·         Enhancing primary health,

·         Reducing gender gap, and

·         Stabilizing the population.

In addition, we must recognize that shifting of excess labour from agriculture to non-farm sectors and managing climate change including the quality of air and water are important inputs in the process of human development. The main features of HDPlus strategy therefore, are:

·         To start with, the focus of action will be on government-school-going children, aged 6 to 14 (that is I-VIII standards), and their families (HDPlus families);

·         The focal point of various governments’ pro-poor schemes along with HD interventions will be HDPlus families to create enabling environment; and

·         It will be implemented by government agencies with the help of grassroots workers in collaboration with civil societies.  

In short, the HDPlus strategy is aimed to lay foundation for the human competency that is quality of being adequately or well qualified physically and intellectually. The strategy   ensures that 14 year olds (8^th graders) are well prepared to read, write and be efficient in mathematics as well as in the basic digital technology before moving to further education, thus initiating the process of empowering people.

In sum, the HDPlus strategy focuses on enhancing the richness of human life, especially those of underprivileged, rather than simply the richness of the economy. It enables people to decide who they want to be, what to do, and how to live. Also, it helps in transforming demographic dividend into an asset by formation of human capital.  Investments in education, health, living environment and its determinants – the social sector – therefore, should be made a priority, though it is a relatively long but a certain process in achieving sustainable and inclusive development.  If India wants a bright future then she needs to act now on unlocking human potential. Time is the essence here. So stop wasting time. Make it happen today! It is, therefore, time to shift gears, up the momentum, and be more incisive in securing the interest of the disadvantaged people.  So India’s immediate development slogan must be:  “Sattar Crore Vanchit Bharatiya ka Vikas” (Development of 700 million deprived Indians). 

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[1] Centre for Sustainable Employment. 2018. State of Working India, Azim Premji University, Bengaluru. Download from: https://cse.azimpremjiuniversity.edu.in/state-ofworking-india/

[2] https://www.indianeconomy.net/splclassroom/what-is-multidimensional-poverty-index/

[3]For details, see:  Kothari, Devendra. 2019. Nurturing Human Development: A Strategy for New India, New Delhi: Paragoan International Publishers. A copy of the publication could be obtained by contacting author.

The Path Ahead: Transformative Ideas for India

Dr. Devendra Kothari

Population and Development Analyst,

Forum for Population Action 

India is sitting on a demographic dividend, expected to become the world’s youngest country by 2020 with 65 per cent of its population, roughly 875 million people, of working age. But the country cannot become a global powerhouse unless we resolve the contradictions and bridge the gaps that distort our society. The challenge before us is to enable every one of India’s 1.3 billion citizens to realize their aspirations. The only way to do this is to focus and elaborate on some “transformative ideas for India”.

The Path Ahead: Transformative Ideas for India, a book edited by Amitabh Kant, present CEO of National Institution for Transforming India, popularly known as NITI Aayog, contains 27 chapters, which gives details on a wide array of development topics by distinguished persons from a basket of mixed talent pool including policy makers, professors, government officials and industry experts. In addition, there is an introductory remark by the editor, a 1980 batch Indian Administrative Services (IAS) officer and the author of Branding India - An Incredible Story.  The volume ends, though, with a brilliant cautionary ‘Epilogue’ by Dr Arvind Subramanian, former Chief Economic Adviser to the Central government.  [1] 

As such, it is indeed fascinating to read this book in times of India’s determination   to “empower every India”, as noted by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while addressing a joint meeting of the US Congress on June 8, 2016 through  many social and economic transformations. [2]

The volume under consideration was conceptualized as a collaborative effort that borrows from very essence of working in tandem to have meaningful discourses. Its vision is to highlight constraints for India’s future growth and suggest workable strategies.  The authors were asked to present their views on what they felt were the best strategies to promote a particular sector that they personally felt was vital for sustainable growth.

The volume is divided into four sections. Section I furnishes information about Human Capital Development. Section II discusses issues concerning Transforming Rural India. Section III entitles: Towards Inclusive Growth and Prosperity.  Finally, Section V deals with Building Brand India.

The volume, The Path Ahead discusses many socio-economic issues/problems   – from fiscal policies, the future of mobility pegged to electric vehicles given global climate challenges, the opportunities to grab and the pitfalls to avoid in urban development as cities are engines of economic growth, and the revival of special economic zones vis-a-vis Chinese model, have all been exhaustively discussed by academics and specialists, a valuable source for policy makers and leaders.

Yet the book leaves one with a mixed feeling. Where is the human soul or is it wrong to ask that question? India is a country that is facing the challenges of people and nature. The book, therefore, should have discussed two- three issues related with sustainable but inclusive development. The book did not discuss why population matters in the development of the country. It leads to a massive diversion of national investable resources to consumption which could otherwise be used for increasing investment and productivity and for improving the quality as well as supply of public services like education, health, sanitation, provision of safe drinking water, etc.  Without population stabilization, India cannot solve its current problems since virtually all major problems that confront India today relate in some critical way to the galloping population.[3] The current population growth in India, however, is mainly caused by unwanted fertility.  Around five in ten live births are unintended/unplanned or simply unwanted by the women who experience them and these births    trigger continued high population growth.[4]

Another greatest challenge facing India, climate change deserves serious treatment by all of us. Of all the most polluting nations – US, China, Russia, Japan and the EU bloc – only India’s carbon emissions are rising: they rose almost 5 percent in 2016. No one questions India’s right to develop, or the fact that its current emissions per person are tiny. But when building the new India for its 1.35 billion people, especially those who are living below poverty lines, whether it relies on coal and oil or clean and green energy will be a major factor in whether global warming can be tamed. India, therefore, has to step up to balance economic growth with nature. [5]

In closing, India’s future is apparently bright, but it will depend on which direction our policies lead us to.  India has to develop not only in wealth but also in human potential. It is because sustainable rapid economic growth comes only on the back of sound human development policies.  HD, therefore, is more than a goal in itself. It is a precondition for meeting the challenges of increasing productivity, reducing inequality, promoting sustainable development and building good governance.  It is high time that the Government of India and research institutions focus on developing effective and smart human development agenda to unlock the human capital. [6]

These are some missing points. Otherwise, The Path Ahead: Transformative Ideas for India is a good book that needs to read to understand the basics of employment, education and healthcare industries in our country.  “The time is ripe for India to innovate and cement its position as one of the leading economies of the 21st century and beyond. I believe this book rises to the occasion. It will not only be a ready reference for today’s policymakers, academics and industry professionals and leaders, it will also serve as an inspiration for India’s youth and leaders of tomorrow,” says John T Chambers, Chairman Emeritus, Cisco Systems and Chairman of the US-India Strategic Partnership Forum, in a very apt and succinct foreword to this book.

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[1] Kant, Amitabh (Ed.). 2018. The Path Ahead: Transformative Ideas for India New Delhi: Rupa Publications, 2018, pp. xix +346

[2] Refer PM Modi speech at the joint meeting of the US Congress on June 8th 2016 at: http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/prime-minister-narendra-modi-us-congress-speech-2842046/

[3] Kothari, Devendra. 2015. India: Why population matters? at: https://kotharionindia.blogspot.com/2015/04/india-why-population-matters.html

[4] Kothari, Devendra. 2014. “Managing Unwanted Fertility in India: Way Forward”, --   in Suresh Sharma and William Joe.   (eds.):   National Rural Health Mission: An Unfinished Agenda, Bookwell, New Delhi. Also, see: Kothari, Devendra and Sudha Tewari. 2009. “Slowing Population Growth in India: Challenges, Opportunities and the Way Forward”. MIPD Policy Brief No. 2, Management Institute of Population and Development, Parivar Seva Sanstha, New Delhi.

[5] Kothari, Devendra.  Population and Climate Change, The New York Times, September 11, 2018 at: http://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/10/climate/united-nations-climate-change.html?comments#permid=28574593 Also see: Kothari, Devendra. 2019. What kind of India do we want? Managing the climate change (paper under preparation), Forum for Population Action, Jaipur.

[6] Kothari, Devendra. 2019. Nurturing Human Development: A Strategy for New India, New Delhi: Paragoan International Publishers

What is the one issue which needs urgent attention in India and why?

Dr. Devendra Kothari

Population and Development Analyst

Forum for Population Action

On factors holding India back, my biggest disappointment is the low level of human development.

—Bill Gates

Co-Chair, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

Times of India, November, 2017

An unknown commentator, who commented on my last post- Empowering India through HDPlus strategy (https://kotharionindia.blogspot.com/2018/10/managing-poverty-and-hdplus-strategy.html) -, asked me the question: “What is the one thing you want to change in India and why?”  And this post aims to answer this question.  There is plenty of stuff to be changed in making India as a developed country, but we cannot focus on everything in one go.  To start with, one has to put all its energies around few selected things and among these unlocking the human potential is vital.

Now question arises: why human development? Let’s consider some facts.

The event, "Human Capital Summit 2018: A Global Call to Action" during the World Bank-IMF Annual Meetings held in Indonesia this April, the World Bank President Jim Yong Kim announced the ranking of the countries on  human capital index (HCI). India ranked 115th out of 157 countries.

HCI seeks to measure the amount of human capital that a child born today can expect to attain by the age of 18. According to its parameters a child born in India today will only be 44 per cent as productive as she/he could have been if she enjoyed quality education and full health as well as quality of living environment including water and sanitation.  In other words, there are grave deficiencies in human development efforts and that are preventing our children from reaching their full potential. Further, the World Bank findings point out that India’s score is “lower than the average for its region and income group.”

Singapore topped the HCI list after it was highly rated for its universal primary healthcare system, primary education exams results and life expectancy figures. It is followed by South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong and Finland.

The Government of India, however, rejected the World Bank results. In a statement, the Indian finance ministry said the HCI has “major methodological weaknesses, besides substantial data gaps” and declared it would “ignore” the ranking. But experts called on the government to acknowledge its failures and take steps to improve health and education outcomes.  India’s performance in the UNDP’s Human Development Index, another measure of human capital, also hasn’t improved much over the years, experts said. This year, India ranked 130 out of 189 countries. Whether India is going to reject this finding too?

There are many national and international reports which indicate that situation is fast deteriorating. For example, the Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) 2017 survey titled “Beyond Basics” reveals that nearly one-fourth of India’s youngsters aged 14-18 cannot read their own language fluently. The report, an initiative by an Indian NGO Pratham, also reveals that 57 per cent of the children assessed struggled to solve a simple sum of division - exposing chinks in the quality of education imparted in the country. Further, 47 per cent of all 14 year-olds in the sample could not read English sentences. For 18-year-old youth, this figure is closer to 40. Also, the report revealed that only 28 per cent had used the internet—26 per cent had used computers in last one week. 64 per cent had never used the internet.

As far as wellbeing of children are concerned,  India is among the countries accounting for the highest burden of stunted, wasted, and overweight children, as per the latest Global Nutrition Report 2018 reflecting the growing concern around child nutrition in the country. With 46.6 million stunted children, India accounted for nearly one-third of the world’s 150.8 million children who are stunted; the report shows warning against a major malnutrition crisis. India is followed by Nigeria (13.9 million) and Pakistan (10.7 million). [1]  The three countries together are home to almost half of all stunted children in the world. This is despite the improvement made by India in reducing
stunting since 2005-06. This is one of major impediments in empowering human resources.

India’s demographics are mind-boggling. During the next one and half   decades there will be a massive increase in the population in the working ages because one  million or so  young people will join the labour force every month and many of them will not have the ability to earn living wages because of their poor human development. Many vested interests would like to perpetuate the current low-level equilibrium of human development.

So what sort of change we need? No doubt, India has to empower its people. For this author has suggested a way out, as noted in my previous post:  Empowering India through HDPlus (HD stands for Human Development) strategy. [2]   At the centre of the HDPlus strategy is the concept of capabilities. Basic capabilities valued by virtually everyone include: good health, access to knowledge, and a decent standard of material living. However, around 50 per cent of population (approx. 700 million people or 135 million families) in India still has inadequate access to basic goods such as quality education, health or sanitation. Much more, therefore, can be done in terms of investments for the bottom income groups. This will substantially increase income growth rates at the bottom, and the growth rates of the economy as a whole. What is required is single-minded focus on growth, based on human development, which increases the jobs pie.[3]

70 years after independence, India I know is losing its way. Only human development can save us. It appears that our policy makers are convinced that rapid economic growth is the most (or only) effective tool to dent into inequality and poverty, through “increased opportunities” for the needy sections. Twenty-seven years ago, India embarked on the journey of economic liberalization, opening up to globalization and market forces. We and the rest of the world have watched that the investment and trade regime introduced in 1991 raised economic growth, increased consumer choices, and reduced poverty to some extent. The trickle-down effect of economic liberalization, however, could not lift millions of Indians and the level of inequality increased. It is because our policy makers in last seventy years did not seem to endorse the concept of "Small is Beautiful" in unlocking human potential.  [4] 

 

Recently, I was interviewed by the Citylive dialogues to understand what happened in the last seventy years. You may like to watch it at:   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kr4QKlmIwg8 

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[1]  For details , see at:

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/66873472.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

[2] For details , refer at: https://kotharionindia.blogspot.com/2018/10/managing-poverty-and-hdplus-strategy.html

[3] Kothari, Devendra. 2019. Nurturing Human Development: A Strategy for New India, New Delhi: Paragoan International Publishers

[4] The book, Small Is Beautiful: A Study of Economics As If People Mattered  is a collection of essays by German born British economist E.F. Schumacher, first published by Blond & Briggs in 1973.