The Fourth Industrial Revolution and India

 

 

Dr. Devendra Kothari

Population and Development Analyst

Forum for Population Action

 

“For India, the Fourth Industrial Revolution brings tremendous opportunities to leapfrog many stages of development, hastening its journey towards becoming a developed economy.”

                                                                                             Pranjal Sharma                                    Kranti Nation: India and The Fourth Industrial Revolution  

The world stands on the brink of a technological revolution known as the Fourth Industrial Revolution (FIR) that will fundamentally alter the way we live, work, and relate to one another. In its scale, scope, and complexity, the transformation will be unlike anything humankind has experienced before, as per the World Economic Forum (WEF). 

The First Industrial Revolution used water and steam power to mechanize production. The Second used electric power to create mass production. The Third used electronics and information technology to automate production. Now a Fourth Industrial Revolution is building on the Third, the digital revolution that has been occurring since the middle of the last century. It is characterized by “a fusion of technologies that is blurring the lines between the physical, digital, and biological spheres,” as per Klaus Martin Schwab the founder and executive chairman of the World Economic Forum. [1] 

When compared with previous industrial revolutions, the Fourth is evolving at an exponential rather than a linear pace. Moreover, it is ‘interrupting’ almost every industry in every country. And the breadth and depth of these changes herald the transformation of entire systems of production, management, and governance. As AI and robots become more sophisticated they will increasingly replace humans at their jobs. There are several projections for job losses owing to factors such as automation and consolidation in the market. As per the one estimate one in four job losses in India will happen on account of automation. And that has already started.

In many ways, companies in India are ensuring their survival by adopting new technologies. “Those who adopt faster and better will be more competitive than others, and definitely in a better position to compete with global entrants. Their survival comes at the cost of jobs. But these can be countered by rescaling, and by creating new opportunities.” [2] 

Is India ready to follow the dictates of the Fourth Industrial Revolution? India doesn’t lack talent or entrepreneurship but it   lacks an ecosystem. Work in science and innovation is relatively abysmal because there's been a legacy of poor policy to develop scientific temper. Moreover, a series of sensational claims, including that ancient Hindu sages were the pioneers of aviation, internet, plastic surgery and  algebra, have triggered a furious debate in Indian academic circles amid warnings that nationalist breast-beating could undermine the country’s burgeoning scientific reputation. Also, it may spread andhvishwas/superstition thus harming the development of scientific temper. 

The Fourth Industrial Revolution is based on digital technology involving AI, 3D-printing, advanced robotics and neuroscience.  The state of the internet in India, however, is very poor. Some estimates say that less than half of India’s 1400 million people have internet access. But without reliable connectivity the use of the internet is very limited and irritating. It means the digital technology in India faces many challenges. Some of these challenges are: 1. the daily internet speed, as well as the Wi-Fi hotspots, are slow as compared to other developed countries, 2. most of the small and medium scale industry has to struggle a lot to adapt to the new modern technology; 3. limited capability of entry-level smart phones for smooth internet access, 4. lack of skilled manpower in the field of digital technology, and 5. growing menace of digital crime. 

But the future of the Fourth Industrial Revolution depends upon availability of reliable and universal internet. As we expand internet infrastructure, including in public institutions such as schools, the data also alerts us to the need for finding ways to ensure that existing inequalities do not get multiplied in the process. The state of Bihar is the worst performer in this metric, with only 43.6 per cent of men ever having used the internet, but at 20.6 per cent women are much further behind. In the more prosperous Karnataka state, home of India’s IT capital – Bangalore, with only 62.4 per cent of men and 35 per cent of women ever having used the internet, the overall access is better but the gender divide is still entrenched, as per the National Family Health Survey 2020.  In short, the internet accessibility and use in the country largely varied based on factors like gender and socio-economic divide. This digital gap only increased further in the rural hinterlands compared to urban metros.  In addition, a majority of India’s digital population accessed the internet via their mobile phones. An increased availability of cheap data plans along with various government initiatives under the Digital India mission worked together to make mobile the primary internet access in the country. It is mostly used for social networking. 

During the lockdown, we have seen the power of digital technology not only in running the business but also in imparting education. While addressing the 40th annual general meeting of Infosys on June 19, 2021, Nandan Nilekani said the hybrid workforce model will be the new normal and the dramatic shift to living and working online has altered the business landscape in irrevocable ways. The Infosys co-founder added that unprecedented technology transformation driven by cloud and digitalisation of business models will shape the new normal.

As such, India has to increase the internet penetration. However, frequent power breakdown coupled with poor quality of apps demotivate users. For example, the income-tax department launched a new e-filing portal on June 7, 2021, hard-selling it as a game changer. Results have been disappointing, with frustrated users taking to social media to give vent to their feelings. Given that e-filing has been around for a while, the messy transition to a new portal is inexcusable. 

An information technology powerhouse that is India needs to do much better. There is an urgent need to resolve issues like poor internet connectivity, power cuts, and, of course, a spike in app usage on mobile phones. In addition to the availability of reliable digital technology, the Indian entrepreneurs/ manufactures have to change their ‘causal’ or 'chalta hai’ ('It's okay', 'Let it be') mentality if we want to take advantage of the Fourth Industrial Revolution early. For example, in general the manufactured product doesn’t follow the set protocol. Why is Covexin not approved by WHO is a question that is being asked by many people? Covexin, the vaccine that is developed by Bharat Biotech, Hyderabad, has been facing a certain amount of scrutiny. Covexin is yet to receive approval from WHO, which requires the manufacturer to provide documentation that the UN agency needs in order to validate the manufacturer’s claims. 

Are we really a Chalta Hai nation? Is Chalta Hai ingrained in our DNA or is it just a bad habit which can be easily exterminated? Will this attitude stop India from becoming a global power? Alpesh Patel (2018) [3] delves into this quirky Indian approach and answers these questions by examining the country's pace of progress in fields such as science, education, infrastructure, films and sports since Independence. Interesting facts and unsettling inferences force the reader to introspect and awaken him to the need for an urgent action. 

The following pages discuss suggestions on how to get rid of the Chalta Hai attitude and take India closer to the dream of becoming an empowered economy through the Fourth Industrial Revolution. We have to recognise that India could not take the full advantages of the  first three industrial revolutions. 

Firstly, talent, intelligence and skill among people make a nation. Today the talent emerges from a narrow base of about 150-200 million people. The rest 1200 million population is nowhere in the picture since they are not properly trained or educated as per the requirement. This must change. A good quality of the Computer Literacy learning should be a compulsory part of the Indian school curriculum. This will develop literacy in coding which underpins the ability to create technology. At the same time it   provides a base for the research and reasoning. The focus of information literacy education being the development of students' abilities to construct, collect and analyse information in a way that provides the basis for effective decision making.  As such, India needs to re-look at its education system and incorporate a more practical fact driven system based on ICT. We have enough people to invest in. It’s the investment that’s lacking. Shockingly, there are still too few institutions of excellence and getting into ‘good’ Indian colleges is often harder than getting into US universities. “No country has gone up the wealth ladder without widespread availability of both good public education and regular, skilled employment. Brain drain is not our problem, brain waste is,” noted by the TOI Editorial. [4] 

Secondly, the current state of quality of Research & Development (R&D) in India is abysmal or inadequate, though a special attention has been made in recent years to focus on innovations through measures like start-ups.  India has been investing a very small amount in R & R&D. For the last 20 years R&D spending in India as a share of GDP oscillated between 0.8% and 0.9%, and more than 70 per cent of funding came from the government alone. However, in the past few years there has been increasing spending by the private sector. The bulk of such investment has come from multinational companies that have discovered India as a very cost-effective location for R&D.  

The Indian private sector, with its dynamism, has no choice but to invest a reasonable proportion of   its profits in  R&D. According to Reuters, Huawei, China’s largest telecommunications equipment and Smartphone maker, spent $13.23 billion on R&D in 2018, a whopping 14.9 per cent of its total revenue. The world’s top R&D spenders, Amazon and Alphabet, the two biggest spenders on R&D in the US respectively, spent $22.6 billion and $16.6 billion in 2018. Can we name any Indian company investing in R&D in this way and on this scale? No. The big Indian business houses simply prefer to remain in the “service” field, without taking the risk of investing in any long-term vision. As a result, during “the next 10 or 20 years, China and Western companies will remain the leaders while India will have to buy their technologies, even defence equipment, with all the risks involved.”  [5] 

The situation has not improved in the last five years. According to the forecast for 2021, China will be the leading country worldwide in terms of spending on research and development, with R&D expenditure exceeding 621 billion U.S. dollars. The United States is expected to invest about 599 billion U.S. dollars into R&D while India would like to invest 93 billion U.S. dollars, closely followed by South Korea – that is 91 billion U.S. dollars, as per the Statista. 

Lastly, the contribution of NRIs could be immense. The Indian diaspora, one of the most “vibrant and dynamic”, is the largest in the world, with 18 million people from the country living outside their homeland in 2020, as per the report released by United Nations. [6]  Other countries with a large diaspora included Mexico and Russia (11 million each) and China (10 million). Most of them who migrate to developed countries like the USA are highly qualified and talented. Indian-origin CEOs are ruling the world especially those serving in the technology industry with the biggest examples being Google and Microsoft, the two giants in the market who are shaping the world. It's not just the technology industries which are being headed by India-origin people but even companies who are big aces in the property, banking and retail sectors are being headed by Indian-origin people. 

This can be referred to as a Brain Drain. The Oxford Advanced Learner’s dictionary defines brain drain as: “Movement of highly skilled and qualified people to a country where they can work in better conditions and earn more money”. Among the Asian countries, India continued its trend of being the top country of birth for immigrant scientists and engineers, with 9, 50,000 out of Asia’s total 2.96 million in 2020, as per the Asian Development Bank. 

Admittedly, brain drain from India cannot be curbed fully. However, with modern technologies arriving in India, incentives offered to start own enterprises and start-up companies, highly skilled Indian professionals may find it lucrative to work here rather than migrate. Investor friendly policies adopted by the government will most likely see skilled Indians launching their own start-up ventures that can compete with their foreign rivals. Further, India needs a collaborative effort. It will have to create a long term ecosystem that trains and educates professionals. India could collaborate with the US, Germany, and the EU. The central government can consider a joint platform between ministries, state governments and industry bodies to create a mission for making the most of the Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies. 

In conclusion, science and technology will be central to a strong and prosperous India. The paper argues that India has to take some immediate measures in promoting new technology relevant to the Fourth Industrial Revolution. The major focus must be on AI, genome technology, nanotechnology and quantum computing among others. For this, India must facilitate the establishment of autonomous academic centres of excellence on the lines of original IITs in collaboration with countries like the USA, Japan and Germany among others.  The selection of faculty and students must be on merits. For this, India must use its vast diaspora. 

The solutions, as suggested above, are neither easy nor quick. But one has to do it for the success of the Fourth Industrial Revolution in India. It requires determination. It is because innovation does not happen by chance or in a vacuum. Innovation cannot be legislated; it takes deliberate policy actions, enablers, positive incentives and entrepreneurship to make it happen. Hope our policy makers will follow the dictate?

 

 

 

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[1] Schwab, klaus. 2020. The Fourth Industrial Revolution: what it means, how to respond, the World Economic Forum, Geneva. Refer at: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-what-it-means-and-how-to-respond/ 

[2] Sharma, Pranjal. 2017. Kranti Nation: India and the Fourth Industrial Revolution, Macmillan, New Delhi. 

[3] Patel, Alpesh. 2018. Chalta Hai India: When ‘It’s Ok!’ is Not Ok.  Bloomsbury India

[4] Refer TOI editorial at: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/toi-editorials/resident-indians-emigration-may-be-going-up-thats-not-a-problem-the-problem-is-lack-of-investment-in-people-here/

[5] Refer article - R&D key to India’s status at: https://www.dailypioneer.com/2019/columnists/r-d-key-to-india---s-status.html 

[6] United Nations. 2021. ‘International Migration 2020 Highlights', Population Division of UN, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Refer at: https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/content/international-migration-2020-highlightsat:

 

'Corona Mukt (free) Bharat’ by the end of 2021

 

Dr. Devendra Kothari

Population and Development Analyst

Forum for Population Action

 

The New Year is a great time to give up anything that’s holding you back; unpacking a little emotional baggage is a great way to celebrate it. The Covid-19 pandemic has affected our lives, and how we live them. Everyday decisions have suddenly become harder to make. Further, the uncertain and unexpected evokes pronounced fear and stress. 

So when the Union Health Minister said that India would be in a position to vaccinate at least all of its adult population by the end of 2021,
it was a great sign of relief for everyone; however, he could not elaborate as to how India is going to achieve it. 

India is in desperate need of expert disaster management to achieve this target.  Currently, the corona management is considered as an administrative problem.  Further, pandemic is a Central government responsibility  under National Disaster Management Act since March 2020, and it comes under the jurisdiction of Home Ministry, though the Ministry is not related to the management of the pandemic even remotely.   As a result, we are not able to plan properly. For example, less than three months to its July 2021 vaccination deadline India has only reached 25% of its target. Due to the shortage in the vaccine, inoculation dropped from 35 lakh each day in the first week of April to 21 lakh in the last week of April. In May the daily average dropped further to 16 lakh doses being administered per day. 

That’s why it’s important to sit down, set a goal, and put a plan in place to start crushing the goal. And, this requires professional inputs.  

India has to achieve ‘Corona-Mukt Bharat’ for its endurance before the end of the year. For this, India has to vaccinate the entire population aged 5 to 64?  It is feasible, manageable and essential for the survival of India.

 

The article suggests a mechanism to achieve it.  

In mid-March, 2021, India believed that the worst of Covid-19 was already behind; and the focus had largely shifted from containment to vaccinations. And the world was looking up to India's production capacity for a steady supply, especially to the poorer countries. By mid-March, India had exported over twice the number of doses it had administered at home. But then the story changed suddenly. The daily infection rate that was on a steady decline took a reverse turn, almost with a vengeance. And the country found itself in the devastating second wave. 

Every day since April 25, India has had more than 40 per cent of the global coronavirus cases. On some days it has crossed the 50 per cent mark. India also reported more than 30 per cent of the total global Covid deaths. These are only the reported official cases and deaths. Many experts say the real numbers are much –much higher. 

Experts are a little uncertain about why there’s been a surge in coronavirus cases, as there hasn’t been one answer to explain the spike. It’s happened so fast that there hasn’t been a chance for massive research. 

A variant of SARS-CoV-2 known as B.1.617 is widely suspected to have played a big part in the disastrous spread of covid-19 across India in recent months, as per the WHO.[1] In addition, it has been pushed by certain man-made decisions/actions and over confidence.  The government took little steps to build India’s health infrastructure after the first wave, declared a false victory over the virus, celebrated Kumbh and went ahead with election rallies when the disease was spreading fast. In short, the laxity in preventive measures, coupled with the presence of new variants, has resulted in a nationwide crisis. 

 

The second wave of Covid-19 pandemic has hit India’s nascent economic recovery. Till now, there is no official estimate of its impact on the economy. Private forecasters have, however, made assessments of the damage caused by the second wave, which is still unfolding. It may take years to reach pre-pandemic levels.

 

Also, the national health and education systems have buckled under the strain of Covid-19’s second wave.  Many states are reporting shortages of hospital beds, oxygen supply, medicines, even space in morgues. Further, the prolonged closure of schools due to the COVID-19 pandemic in India may cause a loss of over billions of dollars in the country's future earnings, besides substantial learning losses, according to a World Bank report. [2]   

Available data indicate that the young and economically active populace is getting more infected in the new wave. “Children are definitely more symptomatic now than what we saw in the first wave,” said Tanu Singhal, a paediatrician and infectious disease specialist at Mumbai’s Ambani Hospital. So India has to FOCUS on a young and economically active population. 

What should India be doing? Here the concept of herd immunity could help. Herd immunity occurs when a large portion of a community (the herd) becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of disease from person to person unlikely. As a result, the whole community becomes protected —not just those who are immune.  For this many people are vaccinated against the disease to achieve immunity.  

Dr. Francis Collins, Director of the National Institute of Health, USA, recently said that “we don’t really quite know how many people need to be vaccinated against Covid-19 to hit herd immunity, but there has been a long-standing belief that 70% to 80% of the population needs to be vaccinated in  order for it to happen”. [3]

 

So far, India has vaccinated 10 per cent of the total population. On the other hand, the UK and USA have vaccinated 56 per cent and 48 per cent of their population, respectively, as on May 20, 2021. The U.S. and UK could reach herd immunity soon, as per Dr. Collins. .

 

In order to reach the herd immunity, India has to vaccinate around 80% of its population For this, India has to cover the entire population aged 5 to 64 that is around 112 crore on the priority basis, this includes the working and school and college going population. For the senior population 65+ it will be optional for a time being. However, a sizable proportion of the senior population has already been vaccinated. 

India has already administered over 18 crore coronavirus vaccine doses by May 20, 2021, as per MOHFW. India, therefore, needs additional 205 crore doses to fully vaccinate the entire target population. It means around 95 lakh doses every day between june1 to December 31, 2021. And, India has to plan for this. 

But a severe vaccine shortage has derailed India's vaccination drive. With a steady supply, we could have vaccinated half the adult population by now. It is clear the current production capacity is inadequate to meet the demand. India needs around 2.05 billion doses to fully vaccinate the target population.

The Government of India can increase   supply of vaccines by taking certain steps: Ask vaccine manufacturing companies in the country to manufacture the vaccine using the formula  developed jointly by Bharat Biotech and ICMR; allow all foreign vaccines to be used in the country, and the Centre, rather than the states, should buy them; the foreign Covid vaccine manufacturing companies should be allowed to manufacture the vaccines in India; and provide financial and other  helps to companies in India and outside  who can make vaccines in India. 

Vaccinating the entire target population in 214 days is a herculean task.  But it can be achieved with proper planning and management. The reason we don’t have enough vaccines is that we did not order them at the right time because we didn’t think we needed them. In other words, the Government   didn’t have a ‘grip’ over the problem. This is the faculty of being aware of the situation, being knowledgeable about what resources are at hand and what may be required in the future and being conscious of what events to anticipate, writes Aakar Patel, a senior journalist [4]

 

Further, the problem of the Covid-19 pandemic cannot be approached through the Central government interventions and guidelines alone. It needs the States to be aware of the situation, be knowledgeable about what resources are at hand and what may be required in future and be conscious of what events to anticipate. In a centralised system, as has been followed so far, where decision making is often the purview of a few people and sometimes that only of one person. 

Vaccinating the target population on or before the end of the year will require a management approach.  For this, creation of a national task force under an eminent epidemiologist like Anthony Fauci of the USA could be a sound move. (Epidemiology aims to solve or control health problems. It integrates experiments, risk assessment, statistical analysis, and surveys to study disease patterns.) 

At the central level, the mass vaccination programme should be managed by a ten member National Task-Force headed by a known epidemiologist.  Other members may represent disciplines like management, medical, economics, public administration and sociology among others. This full-time high powered Task-Force will take all the technical and management decisions as to how to achieve the target. The procurement and supply of vaccines will be the responsibility of this task-force. It will be a powerful committee reporting directly to the Prime Minister of India. 

The Task-force will ask states and UTs to prepare district-wise and vaccination centre-wise plans. The move is aimed at enabling “efficient and judicious” utilisation of available doses for smooth implementation of the national vaccination programme. 

The programme implementation will be the responsibility of   states and union territories. They will prepare the plans of action district wise and that will be submitted to the National Task-force for approval and monitoring. Also, states and private vaccination centres will publish their vaccination calendar on Co-Win digital platform in advance, while desisting from publishing single day vaccination calendars.

The proposed vaccination exercise will be regularly reviewed and monitored by the Task-Force.   

In the last, but very important, all the controversial issues like farmers’ bills and CAA need to be put aside and priority given to procure and vaccinate on a war footing. No doubt, rapid vaccination will bring down the curve. However, it's important that the public follows all the laid down Covid Protocol (and if not followed, enforced by the powers that be). 

In sum, recognise that the virus has a long-term survival plan of its own, and is still generating variants. But it does not mean that one should stop trying to win over the virus. Vaccines may indeed be the miracle weapon that may win this battle.  So India must focus on vaccinating the target population on or before the New Year.

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[1] The Economist, May 14, 2021. How much should you worry about the “Indian variant”? at https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?hl=en&tab=wm#inbox/FMfcgzGkXSVlxKjsmMXzFRQGbgnkkHph 

[2] https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/covid-19-school-closure-may-cost-over-usd-400-billion-to-india-world-bank-2308868 

[3] Read more at:https://www.deseret.com/coronavirus/2021/4/26/22403505/us-covid-herd-immunity-timeline 

[4]Read more at: https://www.asianage.com/opinion/columnists/180521/aakar-patel-govt-needed-to-have-grip-over-covid-that-is-what-pm-lacks.html

Second wave of the pandemic: Testing times for the Indian leadership

 

Dr. Devendra Kothari

Population and Development Analyst

Forum for Population Action

 

Since April, India has been witnessing a surge in Covid-19 infections. This fearsome second wave of the covid-19 pandemic has engulfed India.  With around 400,000 people now testing positive every day, it accounts for almost half the recorded global rise in covid-19 cases. India’s official death toll has crossed 200,000 score and keeps rising by more than 3,000 a day. Yet experts insist that India’s crisis is far bigger than even those numbers suggest. The real caseload could be ten or even 30 times higher, and the number of deaths much more, too, as per The Economist (April 28, 2021). Could India’s official statistics really be so drastically understating the scale of the pandemic?

 

What should be done? The government should step up the vaccination process. Vaccination is a very important intervention. But an impact on epidemiology can be had only after two doses and a sizable proportion are vaccinated to give an impact. As of now, around 2 per cent has been given two doses. But I do not think India can conduct mass vaccinations in order to make an impact on epidemiology now under the present management system. India has exported over 5.84 crore Covid-19 vaccines to 70 countries against 3.48 crore it administered. Now, Indians are in dire need of vaccines. [1]

 

It appears that India’s leadership could not visualize the magnitude of the problem. The alarming surge in Covid-19 cases in India can be blamed largely on the Prime Minister and Home Minister, and their reckless messaging through overcrowded, unmasked election rallies as well as the Kumbh Mela.

 

Sure, elections have to be held on time. But when they are being conducted in the middle of a life-threatening pandemic, there is absolutely no justification for crowded rallies and massive road shows. And West Bengal Chief Minister was no exception.

 

Further, Kumbh Mela contributed its own role in spreading the virus. Kumbh Mela is a major festival in Hinduism. The festival is marked by a ritual dip in the waters, but it is also a celebration of community commerce with numerous fairs, education, religious discourses by saints, mass feedings of monks or the poor, and entertainment spectacle.

 

At Kumbh Mela, held in Haridwar in April, 2021, many shun masks & distancing, say faith will save them. Uttarakhand Chief Minister Tirath Singh Rawat said at the opening of Kumbh that the “flow and blessings of Ma Ganga will ensure coronavirus doesn’t spread”.   

In short, it is about the message that goes to the people. When the top leadership looks so much at ease addressing a crowd of thousands, then their followers across the country begin to think there is nothing to worry about, as noted  by ThePrint. [2]

 

The next post explores how to achieve Corona-free India by the end of this year.

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[1] Refer India Today April 28, 2021 for:  How India's second Covid wave started, what went wrong, and what can be done: Top virologist answers. Read more at: https://www.indiatoday.in/coronavirus-outbreak/story/india-second-covid-wave-start-went-wrong-top-virologist-answers-details-1795743-2021-04-28

 

[2] Refer article published in ThePrint (April 14, 2021): Poll rallies to Kumbh Mela — Modi-Shah’s conscience must take a look at latest Covid surge at: https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/newsindia/poll-rallies-to-kumbh-mela-%E2%80%94-modi-shahs-conscience-must-take-a-look-at-latest-covid-surge/ar-BB1fD513

 

Will Muslims outnumber Hindus in India in the near future?

 

Dr. Devendra Kothari

Population and Development Analyst

Forum for Population Action

 

A 'Forward' written by me has been published   in the following book: The Population Myth: Islam, Family Planning and Politics in India by Y.S. Quraishi,  HarperCollins; 1st edition (15 February 2021).  

I am reproducing the foreword below for your reference

 Foreword

Population explosion is an age-old issue in India, but it has gained traction once again after Prime Minister Narendra Modi mentioned it in his Independence Day speech (2019). PM Modi, known to generally celebrate India’s “demographic dividend”, expressed concern at a “betahasha jansankhya visphot” (reckless population explosion) and stressed the need for government action to control the situation. The announcement drew mixed reactions. The Congress leader P. Chidambaram cheered it. On the other hand, some BJP leaders sniffed in the announcement a signal of the government’s intention to enact some kind of legislation to control the Muslim population.  The BJP and RSS leaders have for years been blaming Muslims for the purported spurt in the country’s population and raising the bogey of the community eventually outnumbering Hindus in the country (Refer: “A note on the growing demographic imbalances in the Indian subcontinent” by Dr. M.D. Srinivas, Centre for Policy Studies, Chennai, 1999.). In fact, a few politicians from the ruling party have used the PM speech to exhort Hindu women to birth at least four children. 

Based on the official data, however, this narrative does not hold water. The four National Family Health Surveys (NFHSs) have shown that over the past 24 years, new-generation Muslim families have done a better job at family planning, though their statistical figures still trail Hindu families. 

Let us consider some plain facts: 

Will Muslims outnumber Hindus in India in the near future? The Census 2011 data shows that since the Census 1951, the share of Hindus has dropped by 4.3 percentage points from 84.1% to 79.8% of the total population in 2011 while the share of Muslims has risen by 4.4 percentage points from 9.8% (no Census was conducted in the JK in 1951) to 14.2% in the corresponding period. Hindus comprised just about 66% of the population of India before partition in 1947. It is interesting to note that the projected figure shows a slight increase in the share of Hindu Population in 2021 as compared to 2011: 80.3 per cent versus 79.80 per cent. 

There is a sense of paranoia that if the Muslim population is allowed to increase,    it will overtake the population of Hindus in coming years. Before we resolve the issue, let us discuss what has happened in the first decade of 21^st century.

The population growth rate of various religions has come down in the decade (2001-2011). Hindu population growth rate slowed down to 16.76% from previous decade figure of 19.92% while Muslim witness sharp fall in growth rate to 24.60% in 2001-2011 from the previous figure of 29.52%. Such an abrupt fall in population growth rate for Muslims didn't happen in the last 6 decades (Population by Religious Communities, Census of India 2011). 

According to the projected figures, the Hindu population growth rate will go down further to 15.7% from previous decade figure of 16.8% while the Muslim population   may witness another sharp fall in growth rate to 18.2% from the previous figure of 24.60% in the decade 2011-2021 (Projected figures for the year 2021 are based on various sources like. NFHS-4 (2015-16), Population Reference Bureau and United National Population Division.).  One can notice difference between Hindu and Muslim population is narrowing fast. I believe that gap will further decrease in the Census 2031. 

So there is no sense in saying that Muslims will overtake Hindus, as argued by the many right wing politicians. Minorities in India, much like in the United States, are not really anywhere close to being dominant and the fear of any “Muslim takeover in India” was baseless, as noted by the 2019 Economics Nobel-winner Abhijit Banerjee. 

Why is the Muslim population growing slowly? There are many factors behind this unexpected trend but two factors are very important: Emerging middle class and declining fertility.

An analysis of data from the National Family Health Surveys (1992-2016) has shown that over the past 25 years, new-generation Muslim families have done a better job at family planning, though their statistical figures still trail the Hindu families.

In India, a small, emerging yet visible Muslim middle class has surfaced, “breaking the perception of a monolithic impoverished community”, as noted by Ashwaq Masoodi, the Nirman Fellow at Harvard University (Masoodi. 2019. “Joining the India story: Rise of the Muslim middle”, mint.). For example, the NFHS-4 shows that even though, among all religions, the presence of Muslims in the highest wealth quintile (top 20%) of the country is still the lowest, the share has gone up (from 17.2% to 18.8% by 2015-16). Even though in mid 1990s the community realized the importance of education, as documented by several researchers including Anwar Alam, senior fellow at the Policy Perspectives Foundation, a Delhi-based think tank: it wasn’t a dramatic move ( Alam, Anwar, “Emergence of Muslim Middle Class in Post-Independence India and Its Political Orientations,” Journal of Muslim Minority Affairs  35, 1, 2015). Instead some chose hybridized education, which meant that more and more Madrasas had to slowly modernize themselves to include English and computer training in their curriculum influencing the Muslim mindset. 

A widely used measure of fertility levels is the ‘total fertility rate’, or the average number of children a woman will have in her lifetime.    According to the first NFHS-1 (1992-93), this figure was 4.3 children for Muslims and 3.3 children for Hindus, or a fertility gap of 30.3% or one child per woman.   Latest NFHS-4 data shows that this gap has narrowed to 20.5% in 2015-16, a difference of half a birth on average per woman, even as both communities are having fewer children than before IIPS (IIPS. 2017. National Family Health Survey (NFHS-4), 2015-16: India. Mumbai: IIPS.). 

Even when Muslim fertility is declining, the fertility gap would not narrow until the Hindu fertility level reached the replacement level. In demography, it is considered to be 2.1 children per woman. The former Director of IIPS and a known demographer P.N. Mari Bhat had projected that Hindus will achieve replacement fertility by 2021 and a stable population by 2061; Muslims will achieve replacement fertility by 2031 and population stabilization by 2101, and will account for 18.8% of India’s population then. Bhat’s 2011 projections are extremely close to NFHS-4 figures. 

So, what should be the agenda? The only major religion left out of the demographic transition in India is Islam. And this group could be helped by providing family planning services looking to their needs, as happened in Bangladesh and Indonesia.  Muslim scholars believe that the permanent method of contraception is not permitted in Islam. So India has to diversify its approach to include other modern methods of contraception with quality in its programme like Bangladesh and Indonesia. 

India has to find a way to talk about religious demographics as other nations do — mostly without fuss, resentment or wild policy suggestions. It is because Indian Muslims want to be part of the mainstream. No doubt, Muslims have higher fertility rates than those in other religious groups.  But, in India, there is no clash of civilizations.  Indian Muslims are a part of Indian culture, as argued by the   noted Islamic Scholar Mahmood Madani   . “This is because of both India’s culture and its historical legacy. Muslim heritage is a part of a larger tradition of multiculturalism and mutual tolerance.”  

In spite of poverty and illiteracy, the prevailing unmet need for modern  family planning services is surprising, especially among Muslims.  As compared to Hindu women, Muslim women have high level of unmet need for family planning services, (12 % versus 16%).  It means that Muslim women in general do not want more children, yet they have them due to several other factors. I think that the Government of India must address this issue squarely, and the authorities have to accept that there is a problem in the management of family planning programme and resolve it (Kothari, Devendra. 2014. “Managing Unwanted Fertility in India: Way Forward,” in Sharma Suresh and Joe William (eds.),   National Rural Health Mission: An Unfinished Agenda, New Delhi: Book Well.). Sound indicators are emerging that Hindu and Muslim fertility is merging.  

If the economy is allowed to develop unimpeded, the Hindu-Muslim population issue must be discussed thoroughly. Rumour and hate mongers have to be faced head on. 

I am delighted that Dr SY Quraishi, a distinguished scholar in his own right, has taken up this challenging task. His book does a yeoman's service to the nation by attempting to break the long perpetuated myths which have become the fulcrum of dangerous communal polarisation. He has done well to get two great mathematicians to prepare a mathematical model of population growth which conclusively demolishes the myth that Muslims would overtake the Hindus ever – not to say any time soon.  

This book is unique in many other ways too. It has a chapter which convincingly breaks another myth that Islam is against family planning. Another chapter on how all other religions of the world view family planning is a great addition to public knowledge. A chapter on the success of family planning in major Muslim countries is also eye-opening, showing that Islam is not an obstacle to family planning programme anywhere.  

Dr. Quraishi’s conclusion that the problem should not be viewed as ‘Hindus versus Muslims’ problem but as a common problem for both the communities must be taken seriously. Finally, his bold appeal to Muslims to adopt family planning undeterred by provocative right-wing propaganda is an extremely positive initiative. To top it all, he has suggested a complete communication strategy to promote family planning among the Muslims for which not only the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare but the country should feel grateful to him. I have no hesitation to say that this is a great piece of work to promote understanding and national harmony.