Devendra Kothari
Professor, Population Program Management
Wishing you a New Year filled
with New Hope and New Beginnings!
Often, in the hype
over economic growth, we forget to recognize the harsh reality of India –
extreme poverty, hunger, low status of women and deteriorating quality of
education. These stewing issues cannot be allowed to fester since they will deepen
an environment of pessimism that will ultimately risk India’s growth story. The
post argues as to how to beat emerging gloominess.
Latest data indicate that things are not improving in
India at all. In fact, things are going from bad to worse. India’s rank in the
latest UN’s Human Development Report has fallen from 119 in 2010 to 134 out of
187 countries and territories in 2011. In addition, the 2011 Global Hunger Index (GHI) report places India amongst the three countries
where the GHI between 1996 and 2011 went up from 22.9 to 23.7, while 78 out of
the 81 developing countries studied succeeded in improving hunger condition[1]. The HUNGaMA
(Hunger and Malnutrition) survey carried in 2011 and released by the Prime
Minister of India on January 10, 2012 reconfirms that malnutrition among
children in India has taken ominous proportions, and the situation in many
districts of the country has worsened when compared to what it was about a
decade back. The report reveals that over 40% of children are
underweight and almost 60% are stunted[2]. Similarly, per capita availability of food grains
and pulses has declined significantly in the last few years.
India is simply not doing enough for its women either.
The country has fallen from 112 out of 134 countries in 2010 to 113 out of 135
countries in 2011 according to the Gender Gap Index 2011 released by the World Economic Forum.
In addition, three recent studies paint a grim picture of school education in
India - OECD’s Programme for
International Students Assessment (PISA) study ranked Indian higher secondary
students only better than those from Kyrgyzstan, which ranked last
among 74 participating
countries; NGO Pratham`s Annual Status
of Education Report (ASER), 2011, assessing schools in rural India, found sharp
declining reading and mathematical abilities of children in the six to 14 years
age category; and lastly Wipro’s EL
Quality Education Study 2011 of India’s
elite schools, shows that learning levels are not on par with international
standards. 
Taken
together, these three reports make it amply clear that despite a welcome high
enrolment rate - around 97% - at the primary and upper primary levels, the
quality of school learning is simply not up to the mark. Though India’s
children are attending schools, but a large number are not learning even
basics, since teaching standards are poor, with high teacher absenteeism. It is
little wonder then that only 48% of class V students surveyed under ASER were
able to read class II-level texts, among other depressing statistics.
Taken
together, these three reports make it amply clear that despite a welcome high
enrolment rate - around 97% - at the primary and upper primary levels, the
quality of school learning is simply not up to the mark. Though India’s
children are attending schools, but a large number are not learning even
basics, since teaching standards are poor, with high teacher absenteeism. It is
little wonder then that only 48% of class V students surveyed under ASER were
able to read class II-level texts, among other depressing statistics.
All this is a rather
shameful reflection of the prevailing conditions in a country that is said
to be on a growth song, and indicate that India is heading towards an unstable
situation of extreme danger or difficulty that could lead to despair, social
instability, political strife, policymaking paralysis and capital flight as
well as a rapid collapse in growth rates. It appears that efforts made over the
years for improving socio-economic standards have partially been neutralized by
the rapid growth of population.
One has to recognize that population is an important factor in development,
especially when it is growing seemingly out of control since it leads to a
significant diversion of national investable resources to consumption which
could otherwise be used for increasing investment and productivity and for
improving the quality of public services. India’s population has grown
from 361 million in 1951 to 1210 million in 2011, and is still growing by around 17 to 18
million every year. India’s population is
projected to peak at 1.7 billion in 2060.
By all accounts,
population growth in India has been rapid; however, relatively high population
growth mainly due to unwanted fertility makes it more difficult to lift large
numbers of people out of poverty. More than 75% of India’s population lives in
poverty on less than the equivalent of US$2 per day, according to the World
Bank. Around 26 million children are born in India every year and out of this
about 5.5 million births have been classified as unplanned/unintended.
Further, based on the National Family Health Survey[3],
it is estimated that about 30 per cent
or around 224 million people in the age group 0-35 years in India was the
product of unwanted childbearing. The level of unwanted fertility in this age
group has increased from 23 per cent in 1992-93 to 30 percent in 2005-06.
Based on findings of the National Family Health Surveys 1, 2
and 3, it is estimated that currently there are around 450 million people out
of 1200 million in India who are product of unintended/unplanned pregnancies,
and most of them are from the lower economic strata. The consequences of
unintended pregnancy are serious, slowing down the process of socio-economic
development. It
is because unwanted childbearing results in poor physical growth, reduced
school performance, diminished
concentration in daily tasks thus impacting work capacity and work
output resulting in diminished earning capacity.
The impact
of unwanted childbearing is reflected in widespread hunger, poverty,
unemployment as well as increasing scarcity of basic resources like food, water
and space in several parts of India despite concerted developmental efforts
since 1991. India’s large unwanted fertility, a threat to sustainable
development, demands immediate attention.
A popularly held
belief is that as a country becomes economically more prosperous, its fertility
declines significantly and leads to a stable population. However, this is a
simplistic view of a complex phenomenon.
Since the introduction of market-based economic reforms in 1991, India has
become one of the fastest growing major ecinomies in the world. The
economic reforms completed 20 years in the last
July (2011), however, during this period, India’s population increased
by 365 million, much more than the population of USA - the third most populous
country in the world. This raises the
question: Is Development the Best Contraceptive or Are Contraceptives? It is argued that there is a need to go
beyond the prevailing notion that socio-economic development is an essential
precondition for fertility transition, since it provided only a partial
explanation for the monumental changes taking place in fertility behavior,
especially in low-income economies (Kothari 2011)[4].
Some experts predict population growth could turn out to be
a bloom to the economy since more than half of the population of India is
younger than 25 years, it gives the country a potential edge over China, where
an aging population could slow its economy by 3030. However underneath, this rosy outlook for
India epitomizing the country’s ability to surpass China on the back of a
younger population lies some difficulties, especially deteriorating level of
education. “Whether India can benefit from its young population will depend on economic
development and equitable social development”, argued by AR Nanda, Former
Executive Director of Population Foundation of India.
Now question arises as how to forge
ahead. For this, India needs to focus on some real issues. The most important
and positive steps are still largely unrecognized by policymakers as well as by
the bilateral and philanthropic organizations. More than four in ten pregnancies
are unintended by the women who experience them, and half or more of these
pregnancies result in births that spur continued population growth[5].
This means population growth would slow and then end through something women
want and need: the capacity to decide for themselves when to become pregnant,
as noted by Robert Engelman, who
authored the highly acclaimed book: More: Population, Nature, and
What Women Want. If all women had this
capacity, available data affirm, level
of unplanned fertility would fall significantly and consequently average Indian
childbearing would immediately fall below the replacement fertility value of
slightly more than two children per woman required initiating the process of population
stabilization. And population would immediately move onto a path leading to a
peak followed by a gradual decline, possibly well before 2045, as targeted by
the National Population Policy 2000.
The central issues before of the 12th Five Yea Plan should be
reinvigorating interest and repositioning Family Planning in India. The population of India is expected to
increase from 1210 million in 2011 to 1380 million in 2021, as per Population
Reference Bureau. As a consequence, the population density will increase from
382 to 418 persons per sq. kilometre in 2021, creating more demand for
additional resources like water, food, education, health, housing, etc. Of the net addition of 170 million people
during 2011-21, around 46 million will be the result of unwanted/unplanned
childbearing. This sort of population and
development pattern has already created and will create several internal
conflicts in India. Addressing this
issue of population is the antidote to the various concerns plaguing the nation,
as noted earlier. As such, the population issue should not be allowed to become
a “stumbling block” to socio-economic progress as well as the unity of the
country. It
is argued that towards faster and more “inclusive growth”, the Indian economic
road map especially during the 12th Five Year Plan must give due
importance in reducing the incidence of unwanted fertility. The Planning Commission in collaboration with Ministry of Health and
Family Welfare, GoI have to put together a position paper outlining its “Road
Map” to repositioning Family Planning and come up with strategies that outline concrete
actions to be carried out successfully.
Another issue which
needs equal attention is quality of education. Unless education is rescued from
quagmire of mediocrity, all talk about developing a skilled human resource pool
and realizing the country`s demographic dividend will be without substance; and
the country would be inching closer to demographic disaster. As such, investment
in education has to be increased to improve the quality of education especially
at the government schools and colleges where most of the students are from poor
and rural families.
The writing is on the wall. The question is not whether
we act or not, but whether we act now or later and deal with much more dire and
expensive consequences. What we do in the next few years especially during the
period of Twelve Five Year Plan
(2012-17) will determine India’s future. If we do not take required steps however, there will be lack
of decision-making, inefficiency and a stalling of progress and growth. Hope
policy makers are listening!
The findings of the Census of
India 2011 clearly reinforce that two contrasting
demographic "nations" are
emerging in the country. The next post aims in this
direction.
[1]
For details,
see: 2011 Global Hunger Index Report, International Food
Policy Research Institute.
[3]India: National
Family Health Survey (NFHS-3), 2005-06, IIPS, Mumbai, 2007.
[4] Devendra Kothari,
“Implications of Emerging Demographic Scenario: Based on the Provisional
Results of Census of India 2011”, A Brief, a publication of Management Institute of
Population and Development – A Unit of Parivar Seva Sanstha, New Delhi, 2011.
[5] Around half of
these pregnancies are being aborted. According to the World Health Organization
and Guttmacher Institute, New York, India recorded 6.5 million abortions in
2008 of which 66% were deemed unsafe.
