Is Development
the Best Contraceptive-- or Are Contraceptives?
Dr. Devendra
Kothari
Population and
Development Analyst
Forum for
Population Action
World
Population Day[1] is an occasion to engage people, spur commitment and spark actions related to the
opportunities and challenges presented by the growing population. On
this day, I call for urgent, concerted action by the Government of India to
rethink its stand on population issue which, if not handle urgently, may create
serious obstacles for achieving “inclusive growth” and sustainable development.
From Adam Smith onward, economists have recognized
important linkages between population and socio-economic development. Yet, the
attention given to these linkages in current development thinking in India is
not very clear. This is because one can argue that it is not rapid population
growth but rather weak government, corruption and social injustices that are
preventing economic and social development. The counter argument is that rapid
population growth exacerbates the problems of weak government including
governance, corruption and social injustice (See my posts at link: “What ails India –
galloping population growth or corruption?” dated August 29, 2011). However, one has to recognize that
population is an important factor in development, especially when it is growing
seemingly out of control since it leads to a significant diversion of national
investable resources to consumption which could otherwise be used for
increasing investment and productivity and for improving the quality of public
services such as education, health, sanitation, provision of safe drinking
water and for control of environmental degradation.
With 1.2 billion people and still growing, India is
getting dangerously overcrowded. It
appears that the India is in the midst of its most rapid population
growth in the history. Today, India is adding the largest numbers to its
population than any other country in the world as well as in any time in
history. Despite the fact that the annual population growth rate has declined
from 2.4% in the late eighties to 1.6% per year in 2011, India’s population is
currently growing by about 17-18 million annually.
India is currently
the second most populous nation in the world. It will surpass China as the most
populous within 8-10 years. Its population
is projected to peak at 1.7 billion in 2060. China at its peak in 2025 will
have 1.4 billion people. In fact, when China peaks, India will have already
surpassed it in population. Many Indians
including policy makers see these emerging demographics as a critical advantage
in competition with the nation it regards
as its chief rival – China. They argue that China will get old before it
gets rich, and India will reach middle income status while it is still young. With around 70% of the population under 35, India can afford to dream to
become economic power in the world before the middle of this century. However, underneath this rosy outlook for India epitomizing
the country’s ability to surpass China on the back of a younger population lies
some difficulties, especially deteriorating level of education.
Current population growth in India is mainly fueled by
unwanted fertility. Around 26 million children are born in India every year and
out of this about 6 million births have been classified as
unplanned/unintended. Based on findings of the National Family Health Surveys
1, 2 and 3, it is estimated that currently there are around 450 million people
out of 1200 million in India who are product of unintended/unplanned
pregnancies, and most of them are from the lower economic strata. The
consequences of unintended pregnancy are serious, slowing down the process of
socio-economic development. It is because unwanted childbearing results in poor
physical growth, reduced school performance, diminished concentration in daily tasks thus impacting
work capacity and work output resulting in diminished earning capacity. The
impact of unwanted childbearing is reflected in widespread hunger, poverty,
unemployment as well as increasing scarcity of basic resources like food, water
and space in several parts of India despite concerted developmental efforts
since 1991.
Latest reports indicate that things are not improving
in India at all. In fact, things are going from bad to worse. India’s rank in
the latest UN’s Human Development Report has fallen from 119 in 2010 to 134 out
of 187 countries and territories in 2011. In addition, the 2011 Global Hunger Index (GHI)
report places India amongst the three countries where the GHI between 1996 and
2011 went up from 22.9 to 23.7, while 78 out of the 81 developing countries
studied succeeded in improving hunger condition. Similarly, per
capita availability of food grains and pulses has declined significantly in the
last few years. Further, India is simply not doing enough for its women
either. The country has fallen from 112 out of 134 countries in 2010 to 113 out
of 135 countries in 2011 according to the Gender Gap Index 2011 released
by the World Economic Forum. In addition, three recent studies paint a grim
picture of school education in India, posing the risk
of eroding the long-term competitiveness of World’s fourth largest economy.
First, the Quality Education Survey (QES) by Wipro found high-end schools in
metros lacked quality parameters and largely depended on rote learning.
Their learning levels are not on par with international standards. Then, a study by
the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), whose findings were
first reported by Mint on 20 December,2012 found that out of 74
countries, Indian school students at the higher secondary level ranked almost
at the bottom, with only Kyrgyzstan faring worse than India. In yet another
wake-up call for policymakers, the 2011 Annual
Status of Education Report (ASER)
compiled by Pratham recoded sharp decline in reading and mathematical abilities of
children in the 6 to 14 years age category studying in rural India. Today, more children are going to school but what they are
learning is not clear. Can they get any job in the market if they continue such
education? Can industry get the professionals it is looking for? Can India’s
growth continue if the quality of education does not improve? (See my
posts at link: kotharionindia.blogspot.com: How India is managing its “Demographic Dividend”? dated
June 25, 2012).
All this is a rather
shameful reflection of the prevailing conditions in a country that is
said to be on a growth song, and indicate that India is heading towards an
unstable situation of extreme danger or difficulty that could lead to despair,
social instability, political strife, policymaking paralysis and capital flight
as well as a rapid collapse in growth rates. It appears that efforts made over
the years to improve the quality of life have partially been neutralized by the
rapid growth of population.
A popularly held belief by India’s policy makers is that as
a country becomes economically more prosperous, its fertility declines
significantly and leads to a stable population. However, this is a simplistic
view of a complex phenomenon. Since the
introduction of market-based economic reforms in 1991, India has become one of
the fasted growing major economies in the world. The economic reforms completed
20 years in the last July (2011),
however, during this period, India’s population increased by 365 million, much
more than the population of USA - the third most populous country in the
world. This raises the question: Is Development the
Best Contraceptive or Are Contraceptives? It is argued that there is a need to go
beyond the prevailing notion that economic development is an essential
precondition for fertility transition, since it provided only a partial
explanation for the monumental changes taking place in fertility behavior,
especially in low-income economies (Kothari 2011)[2].
The Human Development Index (HDI) is a comparative measure of life
expectancy at birth, education,
standards, and quality of life for
countries
worldwide. It is a standard
means of measuring well-being or quality of life. It is used to measure the
impact of economic policies on quality of life.
Table: Population growth and Human
Development Index (HDI) and percent of population below international poverty line, selected
countries
|
|||||
Country
|
No. children/ woman
|
% Population growth
|
HDI Rank
|
% below poverty line
|
|
1950
|
2010
|
2010
|
2011
|
2010
|
|
Brazil
|
6.15
|
1.90
|
0.95
|
85
|
10
|
China
|
6.11
|
1.64
|
0.51
|
101
|
36
|
India
|
5.90
|
2.73
|
1.43
|
134
|
76
|
Indonesia
|
5.49
|
2.19
|
1.08
|
124
|
51
|
Iran
|
6.93
|
1.77
|
1.18
|
89
|
na
|
Mexico
|
6.70
|
2.41
|
1.26
|
57
|
09
|
Nigeria
|
6.35
|
5.79
|
2.50
|
156
|
84
|
Pakistan
|
6.60
|
3.65
|
1.80
|
145
|
61
|
Shri Lanka
|
5.80
|
2.80
|
1.00
|
97
|
29
|
Thailand
|
6.14
|
1.63
|
0.71
|
103
|
27
|
Source: UN Population Division and
Population Reference Bureau
|
|||||
It appears that the population and related human development
issues have not been given due importance in the development debate of India.
The major emphasis has so far been on economic parameters as how to raise
GDP. Indian economy has to grow faster no one can deny this. But only
faster growth will not be able to address issues like illiteracy, lack of
healthcare, regional imbalance, unemployment, gender equity, poverty, etc.
India’s economic policies, in real sense, should be directed towards social inclusiveness of
vast section of our marginalized population. Ultimately, social mobility is the
key to more inclusive growth.
Now question
arises as how to forge ahead. For this, India needs to focus on some real
issues. The most important and positive steps are still largely unrecognized by
policymakers as well as by the bilateral and philanthropic organizations. We have to meet
the needs of the 16 million women who want to delay or avoid pregnancy but have
no access to effective family planning. As a result, more than four
in ten pregnancies are unintended by the women who experience them, and half or
more of these pregnancies result in births that spur continued population
growth3.
This means population growth would slow and then end through something women
want and need: the capacity to decide for them when to become pregnant. If all
women had this capacity, available data affirm that level of unplanned/unwanted
fertility would fall significantly and consequently average Indian childbearing
would immediately fall below the replacement fertility value required to
initiate the process of population stabilization. And population would
immediately move onto a path leading to a peak followed by a gradual decline,
possibly well before 2045, as targeted by the National Population Policy 2000.
Another
issue which needs equal attention is quality of education. Unless education is
rescued from quagmire of mediocrity, all talk about developing a skilled human
resource pool and realizing the country`s demographic dividend will be without
substance; and the country would be inching closer to demographic disaster. As
such, investment in education has to be increased to improve the quality of
education especially at the government schools and colleges where most of the
students are from poor and rural families.
In short, only
higher GDP growth rate is not the key to more inclusive growth. One has to give
priority to some basic issues like population stabilization
and quality education. All we need now are resources and well managed accelerated and
sustained actions.
[1] An annual event
that marks the date when the world's population reached 5 billion that is on 11
July 1987.
[2] Devendra Kothari,
“Implications of Emerging Demographic Scenario: Based on the Provisional
Results of Census of India 2011”, A
Brief, a publication of Management
Institute of Population and Development – A Unit of Parivar Seva Sanstha, New
Delhi, 2011.
[3] Around half of
these pregnancies are being aborted in India. According to the World Health
Organization and Guttmacher Institute, New York, India recorded 6.5 million
abortions in 2008 of which 66% were deemed unsafe.
Taken
together, these three reports make it amply clear that despite a welcome high
enrolment rate - around 97% - at the primary and upper primary levels, the
quality of school learning is simply not up to the mark. Though India’s
children are attending schools, but a large number are not learning even
basics, since teaching standards are poor, with high teacher absenteeism. It is
little wonder then that only 48% of class V students surveyed under ASER were
able to read class II-level texts, among other depressing statistics. It is
because t