Devendra Kothari PhD
Population and Development Analyst
Forum for Population Action, Jaipur
The immediate focus of the new government
must be two pronged – focus on human development and tone up the basic
infrastructure aiming at improving the quality of life and productivity, thus,
creating favourable conditions for the sustainable development.
As per the World Bank, despite being considered one of India's
lagging states, “Rajasthan made impressive progress during the 1980s and 1990s.
The economy diversified significantly during this period, and the growth rate
accelerated to become the second highest among the major Indian states”. However, during the last five years GDP growth went down from 5.2% in 2007-08 to 4.5% in 2012-13,
the second lowest among the major states of India, as per the Central Statistical Organization, Government of
India. The World Bank notes that “state’s
future prospects depend largely on how it makes the critical policy choices
that it faces”. This post is an effort to encourage discussion and debate about
what should be Rajasthan’s priorities to achieve not only economic growth but inclusive growth.
How
to forge Ahead?
Despite the extremely unkind eco-system (60%
area is desert, the rest is semi-arid) and other
problems, Rajasthan has important advantages and strengths that can help meet
the outstanding challenges - that is its people. Rajasthanis
have an impressive enterprising history of migrating to different parts of the
country or world with almost nothing and creating very successful businesses
with their hard-work, dedication, integrity, attitude, and aptitude. As
such, the basic objective must be to develop human resources. Human development
means investment in human capital. So people can act as capital assets which
yield a stream of economic benefits over their working life.
No doubt, indicators of human development show
steady improvement, but they also suggest that the progress is slow and
Rajasthan continues to lag behind several other states of India. The Human Development Index or
HDI is a summary index of overall development which takes into account life
expectancy at birth, adult literacy rate, and per capita GDP in terms of
purchasing power parity for individual States. The estimate of Rajasthan’s HDI for the latest year for which
data is available (that is, 2007– 8) is 0.434. However, the pace of development was slow as compared
to other major states like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat and Andhra
Pradesh (Table 1). In 1991, the value of
HDI for Rajasthan (0.347) was above the national average (0.340), while in 2008
the State’s rank was below the national average of 0.467. Available
data indicate that human attainments appear to be better and more sustained in
those parts of the country where there is focussed mobilisation for various
aspects of human development including education and health especially
reproductive health.
Rajasthan is still one of the least literate States in India,
with a total literacy of 67%. There is a wide gender disparity in the literacy
rate in the State, effective literacy rates in 2011 were 80% for males and 52.7%
for females. In fact, Rajasthan recoded
the lowest female literacy rate in the country. The low level of literacy
especially female literacy has had a dramatically negative impact on reproductive health and population stabilization efforts. Table 2 indicates
that the state recoded the second highest decadal population growth as well as
maternal mortality, third highest infant mortality and fourth highest total
fertility rate among the major states of India.
Table 1: Selected indicators of human
development: Rajasthan and selected
States.
|
Indicators
|
Selected States
|
|
Rajasthan
|
Andhra Pradesh
|
Gujarat
|
Maharashtra
|
Tamil Nadu
|
India
|
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
|
A. Human Development Index (HDI)*
|
|
HDI
2008
·
* Value
·
*All India
Rank
|
0.434
|
0.473
|
0527
|
0.572
|
0.570
|
0.467
|
|
17
|
13
|
11
|
07
|
08
|
--
|
|
HDI
1991
·
*Value
·
*All India
Rank
|
0.347
|
0.377
|
0.431
|
0.352
|
0466
|
0.340
|
|
27
|
23
|
17
|
15
|
14
|
--
|
|
B. GDP growth in percentage**
|
|
Annual GDP growth (2012-13)
|
4.5
(X)
|
9.9
|
5.5
|
8.0
|
7.1
|
4.7
|
|
C.
Level of literacy (2011) in %**
|
|
Total literacy
|
67
(IX)
|
68
|
79
|
83
|
80
|
74
|
|
Female literacy
|
53
(X)
|
60
|
71
|
76
|
74
|
66
|
|
Figures in parenthesis indicate rank
of Rajasthan (from high to low) among 10 major States of India having
population 50 million and more. These states are: Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra,
Bihar, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan,
Karnataka and Gujarat.
|
|
Source: *Indian Human Development Report 2011: towards Social
Inclusion, Planning Commission of
India, Oxford University Press; National Human Development Report 2001,
Planning Commission of India.
**Based
on data obtained from publications of Registrar General & Census
Commissioner, India.
|
As such, at least two things are vital if
we are to re-boot Rajasthan: human development and
basic infrastructure like availability of safe drinking water, physical connectivityand 24-hour power
supply, as
have been done initially by some states of India including Tamil Nadu,
Maharashtra, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh among others. For this, the following
issues need urgent attention:
1. Improving quality
of reproductive healthcare: According to the Planning
Commission, “Rajasthan is among the more backward states of India. Its per capita growth has been slower owing to the
rapid population growth, and its TFR has been among the highest in the country”.
One has to recognize that population is an important factor
in sustainable development, especially when it is growing seemingly out of
control since it leads to a significant diversion of state investable resources
to consumption which could otherwise be used for increasing investment and
productivity and for improving the quality of public social services such as
education, health, sanitation, provision of safe drinking water and for control
of environmental degradation. Rajasthan’s population has grown from 44 million
in 1991 to 69 million in 2011, and growing by around 1.2 to 1.3 million every
year. Its population is projected to peak at 121
million in 2051. The population growth is mainly fuelled by unwanted
fertility. Around 1.8 million children are born in Rajasthan every year and out
of this about 0.4 million (or 4 lac) births have been classified as unintended/unplanned
or simply unwanted. Based
on the findings of National Family Health Surveys, it is estimated that around
21 million people out of 69 million in Rajasthan in 2011 who were product of
unwanted pregnancies and most of them are from the lower economic strata. The
consequences of unintended pregnancy are serious, slowing down the process of
socio-economic development as well as process of change, and is being reflected
in widespread hunger, poverty, under educated labour force, unemployment, regressing governance as well as increasing
scarcity of basic resources like food, water and space despite concerted
developmental efforts since 1991.
There
may be several reasons behind unwanted childbearing, but most important one is
related to the imperfect control over the reproductive process. The average Rajasthani woman bears
her first child before she is 18 years old, and has little control over her own
fertility and reproductive health. So letting women have the means to
manage their childbearing will help to make Rajasthan a more stable and equal
place. When women have access to contraception appropriate to their needs,
desires, and budgets, the potential benefits are many, including reduced
maternal and child mortality as well as lesser number of abortions and unwanted
pregnancies (Table 2). In addition to its health benefits, family planning
allows families and communities to invest more in education and health care and
helps reduce poverty. A child by choice not by chance is the only way poor can
aspire a better life. As such, a ‘big push’
effort is needed to revamp the reproductive health services in the state.
Table 2: Selected indicators of reproductive
health: Rajasthan and selected States
|
Indicators
|
Selected States
|
|
Rajasthan
|
Andhra Pradesh
|
Gujarat
|
Maharashtra
|
Tamil Nadu
|
India
|
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
|
% Population growth: 2001-11
|
21.5
(II)
|
11.1
|
19.1
|
16.0
|
15.6
|
17.6
|
|
Maternal mortality Rate: 2011
|
318
(II)
|
134
|
148
|
104
|
97
|
212
|
|
Infant Mortality Rate: 2011
|
52
(III)
|
43
|
41
|
25
|
22
|
44
|
|
Total Fertility Rate: 2011
|
3.0
(IV)
|
1.8
|
2.4
|
1.8
|
1.7
|
2.4
|
|
No. of unwanted births per woman
(2005-06)
|
1.0
(III)
|
0.3
|
0.6
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
0.8
|
|
% of pregnant women with birth order
4+ (2005-06)
|
3
(III)
|
08
|
20
|
12
|
07
|
25
|
|
% of eligible couples having unmet
need for contraception (2005-06)
|
15
(III)
|
05
|
08
|
09
|
08
|
13
|
|
% eligible couples using modern
contraceptives (2005-06)
|
44
(VIII)
|
67
|
57
|
65
|
60
|
49
|
|
Source: Registrar General & Census
Commissioner, India and
National Family Health Survey-3,
IIPS, Mumbai, 2007, IIPS, Mumbai, 2007.
|
2. Enhancing quality education: Another area which
needs equal attention is quality of education. Many
policy makers believe
that Rajasthan has an inevitable advantage in its
young “human capital”. Rajasthan has one of the
largest proportions of population in the younger age groups in the country: 50%
of the population of the State has been in the age group 0-19 years and 71% of
the population account for less than 35 years of age. Can Rajasthan take
advantage of this demographic window in the next few years and benefit from it? One cannot be too
optimistic about this considering its poor education system from bottom to top.
Today, more
children are going to school but what they are learning is not clear. The
latest Pratham`s Annual Status of Education Report (ASER), found declining
attendance, over-reliance on private tuitions and declining reading and
mathematical abilities of children in the 6 to 14 years age category in the
State. This makes it amply clear that despite a welcome high enrolment rate -
around 96% - at the primary level, the quality of education is simply not up to
the mark.
Rajasthan
needs to place education at the centre of its development.
3. Improving living conditions: Physical living conditions are equally important in producing an
enabling environment for human development. Table 3 indicates that sub-human living conditions still haunt
people of the state. Only 41% of households have a source of water
within the premises while 59% of households travel more than a kilometre in rural areas
and more than 100 meters in urban areas to fetch their supplies. This problem is further compounded
by lack of access to sanitation. About 70%
of total households in Rajasthan still defecate in open. This situation
is particularly piquant for women and girls.
It is estimated that around 21 million women in Rajasthan in 2011, the worst sufferers of
open defecation, continue with the age-old practice even after 20 years of
economic reforms. Only 23% of the households use LPG
(Liquefied Petroleum Gas) as a cooing fuel. Around
two-thirds of the total households have electricity as the
main source of lighting in the State in 2011.
Any improvement in infrastructures which promote
access to physical mobility, toilet facilities, water, electricity and LPG is
likely to result in a considerable reduction in domestic drudgery especially
for girls/women, freeing up their time for other activities including schooling
and perusing professional life. Critical policy
decisions are required to improve Rajasthan’s basic infrastructure situation.
Table 3: Selected indicators living condition and
women decision making power: Rajasthan
and selected States, 2011.
|
Indicators
|
Selected States
|
|
Rajasthan
|
Andhra Pradesh
|
Gujarat
|
Maharashtra
|
Tamil Nadu
|
India
|
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
|
A. Living
conditions 2011 (percentage of
households with)
|
|
Tap water
|
41
(V)
|
70
|
69
|
70
|
80
|
43
|
|
Latrine
|
28
(IX)
|
43
|
53
|
43
|
42
|
30
|
|
Electricity
|
67
(VII)
|
92
|
90
|
84
|
93
|
68
|
|
LPG as cooking fuel
|
23
(V)
|
36
|
38
|
43
|
48
|
29
|
|
B. Level of women empowerment
|
|
% of women who make specific decisions alone or jointly with their
husband @
|
23
(X)
|
41
|
37
|
46
|
49
|
37
|
|
@ Four decisions: own health care, major household
purchases, daily household purchases & visiting relatives. National Family Health
Survey-3, IIPS, Mumbai, 2007.
|
|
Source:
Based on data obtained from publications of Census Commissioner, India; National Family Health Survey-3, IIPS, Mumbai, 2007, IIPS, Mumbai, 2007.
|
4. Strengthening gender equality: Rajasthan is simply
not doing enough for its women to improve access to resources and decision
making power. Table 3 reveals that the proportion of currently married women
who participated in the decision making varies from a high of 49% in Tamil Nadu
to a low of 23% in Rajasthan among the major states of India. In fact, the
women in Rajasthan showed the lowest level of decision making power in the country
as a whole. Further, the share of women
in wage employment in the non-agriculture sector is less than 12%. Also,
overall crimes against women have increased by 32% in the last three years
(2011-13) in the State which portrays a sorry state of affairs for the women
despite regulations getting stricter. Nearly 15 women are being sexually
harassed, while nine cases of rape are being registered everyday in Rajasthan,
as per the Rajasthan State Crime Records Bureau (RSCRB).
To deal with a problem that has roots in social
behaviour and prejudice, mere legislation is not enough. To achieve the
long-term vision, however, one has to create an environment where sons and
daughters are equally valued. At the same time
women empowerment requires undoing of patriarchal myths. For this, women must have
access to education and skill training along with economic empowerment through
property rights, favourable credit and entrepreneurial support as well as
opportunity in paid employment. Insuring reproductive rights could be another
effective way to empower women in Rajasthan. Apart from these, water and sanitation requirements of women should be
a special focus of the new government. The government should induct sufficient
women into the police force.
5. Expediting urban development:
Since non-agricultural sectors will drive most of
Rajasthan’s future growth, this growth will mainly show up in the development
of cities and towns. Although Jaipur and some of the major cities have been
growing rapidly, Rajasthan remains largely rural; with a low level of urbanization
(about 23% population was classified urban). At the same time, a
sizable proportion of so-called urban population virtually live in “rural
areas”. Further, most of the urban enclaves in
Rajasthan are today virtually unliveable due to large-scale environmental abuse
and encroachments and poor infrastructure. There is an urgent need to
expedite the process of “real” urbanization in the state to achieve a balanced
development. For this, make master plans for all cities, towns with people's participation with zoning laws and taking
into account future expansion or developed new growth centres. In addition,
strengthen local bodies; give them more powers and financial clout.
Rajasthan has some other important advantages and
strengths that can help in expanding job opportunities not only in urban areas
but also in rural and remote places. A rich cultural and historical heritage
makes Rajasthan one of India’s most attractive tourist destinations and conference
venues, which has so far been virtually under utilized. An abundance of rare
minerals offers the promise to provide new sources of growth and attract
investment. The modern dairy sector
needs further attention. All these will create job opportunities.
Discussion:
The development
opportunities in Rajasthan have lost direction on account of false choices
presented in a growth versus welfare approach in the last five years. Mere
focus on boosting growth through large investment and opening up the economy
without emphasizing on human development is not a panacea for Rajasthan’s long-term
socio-economic and environment
challenges. Similarly, an excessive focus on subsidy and dole-driven
welfare policies could slam the brakes on the economy and drag people below the
poverty line, rather than push up per capita income and welfare. The policy makers have to agree that there is no
real deployment in the absence of human development. It
is high time that the new government should focus on improving people’s ability
to earn more rather than dolling out subsidies that make people dependent on
the political class and system.
This
does not require too much by way of resources, but reorientation of the state’s
priorities. Rajasthan spends considerable resources on subsidies and freebies which
often fail to benefit the target population. These could be better used for
improving living conditions. Further, in 2004 a large
discovery of oil was made in Barmer district of the state. The oil began to
flow in 2009. The average flow of revenues over the life of the assets, which
is estimated at 32 years, has been put at US$ 15.40 billion, or annually,
roughly 1.4% of the state’s GDP. Though
it is very modest share, it could better be used to for the human development.
In conclusion, Rajasthan’s
prospects for improving human development will depend on how effectively the new
government can implement a comprehensive development strategy, incorporating
the key policy options in the five broad areas, as discussed in the preceding
pages. A key step will be to integrate the various measures into a
well-articulated program, with close attention to sequencing and
prioritization. In addition, reforms in Indian states have often been hostage
to adversarial party politics. Thus, the government needs to build consensus
and public support for reform amongst political stakeholders and civil society
so that ownership for reforms becomes more institutionalized.
For details, see:
World Bank. India - Rajasthan - closing the development gap.
Washington, DC: World Bank.
For details, see: Indian Human Development Report 2011: towards
Social Inclusion, Planning Commission of India, Oxford University
Press.
For
details, see: Paul Segal and Anupma Sen, Oil Revenues and Economic Development:
A case of Rajasthan, India, WPM 43,
August 2011, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Oxford University, London.
